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Overview Talking about the future How to do it meaningfully Beyond Current Horizons What we did & why we did it Scenarios Trust Yourself Loyalty Points.

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Presentation on theme: "Overview Talking about the future How to do it meaningfully Beyond Current Horizons What we did & why we did it Scenarios Trust Yourself Loyalty Points."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Overview Talking about the future How to do it meaningfully Beyond Current Horizons What we did & why we did it Scenarios Trust Yourself Loyalty Points Only Connect

3 Section title goes here Ways of talking about the future

4 Who looks at the future? Academics: Wells, Bell, Slaughter, Inayatullah, Adam, Schultz Corporations Shell, Siemens, Goldman Sachs, HP, Nokia, Governments UK Foresight, National Intelligence Council (US), Strategic Policy Office (Singapore) Different interests and approaches

5 Different approaches Weak signals analysis, morphological analysis, causal loop diagrams, backcasting, visioning, expert interview, DELPHI, fifth scenario, seven questions, modelling, systems thinking, horizon scanning, trend extrapolation... Tool trap Focus on method avoids the hard question Builds mystique Good overview:

6 Futures studies Thinking about the future in a structured way Multiple futures: recognising free will & uncertainty Avoiding predictions and resisting orthodox futures Describing three kinds of alternative futures (Amara, 1981): Possible Probable Preferable Supporting action in the present

7 Scenarios Stories about the future Internally consistent and coherent Making alternative futures visible Descriptive Possibilities an organisation can prepare for Normative Encouraging action

8 Critical futures studies Traditional futures approaches reflect the context in which they were developed Western military or industrial origin CFS attempts to deepen and enrich these approaches Bringing experience from critical realism and social science More sophisticated representations of interactions within society Inclusive, not exclusive

9 CFS techniques Ethnographic futures research Developing scenarios with a broad sociocultural base Participatory futures Recognising those affected by decision-making process Causal layered analysis Examining hidden worldviews behind explicit visions of the future

10 A distinction Claims regarding future states Forecasting, modelling Economics and technology best describe the world Can be mistaken for empirical data Claims regarding beliefs about future states Part of existing social science expertise Recognising people and values

11 Education futures Shared priorities between critical futures studies and education research Need to resist inheriting a technologically-determined vision of education Tools to help question assumptions Is the knowledge economy real? Must digital technologies have a place in schools? Whose future are we building?

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15 Why consider the future? Assumed futures shape national debate on curriculum, assessment, practice & investment

16 Why consider the future? Assumed futures shape national debate on curriculum, assessment, practice & investment Education a site for realising learners aspirations

17 Why consider the future? Assumed futures shape national debate on curriculum, assessment, practice & investment Education a site for realising learners aspirations Commitment to learners: we will prepare you for the world

18 In the end I like what we did, but I wouldnt call it schools for the future. Id call it schools for the very near future. So what was missing from my point of view was having some real blue skies thinking and then reining it back into something that you could deliver in the next say, five or ten years. Alsop Architects, talking about BSF exemplars Were always just fire-fighting and thinking about next week – we need something to help us raise our sights to the longer term question of what is this all for England, Childrens Services Director I have to plan, I have to make serious and long term decisions that will affect education in my local authority for the next 20 – 50 years – but I havent got any tools to help me think that far ahead, I have no idea what the possibilities might be Local Authority Education Advisor What Im worried about is that we are just taking for granted what the future will be, were not actually asking whether that is likely to happen or not, or what other things might happen, and if were not doing that, god knows if were actually preparing children in the right way Award-winning Head teacher, England

19 The rhetoric of education is that it is preparing young people for living in the early 21st century. The reality is that it is doing no such thing. If this were otherwise, then educators would be constantly demanding the very best insights, the very latest understandings from the futures community. Slaughter, 2002 (http://bit.ly/slaughter)

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21 Section title goes here The BCH programme aims to build a challenging and long term vision for education in the context of socio- technological change 2025 and beyond DCSF TFU 2007

22 Aims To generate a resource bank of evidence and insight relating to potential socio-technical futures for To build a set of potential scenarios for education in the context of scientific and technological change in 2025 in order to test existing policies. To ensure that we have identified and prepared for a range of potential social, technological and cultural futures and that we are enabled to develop the tools and strategies to support our children and families, whichever of these comes to reality in 2025.

23 Motivation Helping educators & stakeholders to: resist the temptation of future predictions challenge taken-for-granted assumptions about the future understand which factors might cause these potential futures to come to pass develop plans and strategies that are sustainable in multiple potential futures consider the potential implications of actions now on possible futures

24 Section title goes here Activities & outcomes

25 Building the evidence Establishing academic team International reputations Wide range of domain expertise Commissioning original research 65+ papers within 5 research areas Economics, neuroscience, social science... Developing appropriate methodology Synthesising evidence & deriving narrative

26 (Examples) Adolescent brains still developing (Blakemore) Implications for school & pastoral care Notions of knowledge economy inappropriate (Lauder) Demand for educated workforce not as advertised Implications for HE/FE Importance of understanding community (Riley, Nash, Hoff) Geography & family reinforced, not challenged, by technology

27 (also...)

28 millionfutures.org.uk

29 powerleague.org.uk

30 Title

31 Scenarios 6 alternative futures for education Broad sociotechnological changes Implications of these changes for education Ways in which education might respond to these changes Prompting & catalysing debate Intended for a wide audience – policy, academia, system leaders within education

32 Phase 1 Scenario development approach What are the choices open to education in the context of socio-technical change? Generations & Lifecourse Identity, Citizenship, Community Knowledge, Creativity & Communication Work State/Market/Third Sector Initial scoping question Extending horizons – identifying diverse operating trends 5 research areas established DCSF TFU Public consultation Expert interviews EAG meet Feb 08 BCH team desk research BCH team

33 Commissioning evidence reviews Socio- economic Science & technology Education Triage with stakeholders Trends Driving forces Edge cases Interdependencies Identify causal relationships Key variables for structuring scenario building activity Evaluation against stakeholder priorities Stakeholders set priorities for final commissioning iteration Reviews inform further commissioning Assess likelihood & impact Scenario narrative construction workshop Phase 2 Phase 3 Scenario development approach

34 Commissioning evidence reviews Socio- economic Science & technology Education Triage with stakeholders Trends Driving forces Edge cases Interdependencies Identify causal relationships Key variables for structuring scenario building activity Evaluation against stakeholder priorities Stakeholders set priorities for final commissioning iteration Reviews inform further commissioning Assess likelihood & impact Scenario narrative construction workshop Phase 2 Phase 3 Mapping activities to scenario dev approach Challenge leads & steering groups Idea generation and academic workshops 3 day scenario workshop Citizens Jury Million Futures ICT Champions EAG consultation Citizens Jury ICT Champions EAG meet October 08 BCH modelling & trend analysis Challenge leads & steering groups May – Dec 08 Nov 08 – Feb 09

35 Beyond Current Horizons Individualistic worldContested worldCommunal world Education meets goals Education doesnt meet goals Specific educational goals

36 Three worlds Trust Yourself Individualistic values Loyalty Points Values contested Only Connect Communal/civic values

37 Section title goes here Trust Yourself

38 Trust yourself Autonomy. Self-reliance. No need for help. Solve your own problems; be your own boss;express yourself Economic & resource pressures Minimal state Fragmented & diverse political landscape Ad-hoc groups with clear & limited aims Working themselves out of existence

39 Trust yourself Are there any common values? Why would universities still exist? Can altruism still exist? Can leisure?

40 Activity 5 minutes: Whos learning? Whos researching? How would your research work in this world? Feedback

41 Section title goes here Loyalty Points

42 Balancing interests. Managing risk. Codifying relationships. Explicit rights & obligations. Negotiation of rights to data between service providers & individuals Strategic membership of the right associations crucial Reputation a vital asset Alternative routes for building social capital If you can explain what you bring, youre in

43 Loyalty points Does serendipity still exist? Can you share bad news? How quickly can you move? How quickly can other people?

44 Activity 5 minutes: Whos learning? Whos researching? How would your research work in this world? Feedback

45 Section title goes here Only Connect

46 Only connect Civic commitment. A thriving public sphere. Many hands, many eyes, no single achievements. Interdependence. Notion of common goods & democratising technologies. States priority is the preservation of civil society Permeable boundaries & mobile individuals Aim is mutual interdependence People more than resources or labour Personal responsibilities shared more widely

47 Only connect End of disciplines? No more credit? What happens to private endeavour? How do you defend what looks like a selfish enterprise?

48 Activity 5 minutes: Whos learning? Whos researching? How would your research work in this world? Feedback

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50 Thank you

51 Richard Sandford


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