Presentation on theme: "Prepared for the Perfect Political Storm: Harry Reid Survives the Wave Nevada Senate Case Study Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharon Angle (R)"— Presentation transcript:
Prepared for the Perfect Political Storm: Harry Reid Survives the Wave Nevada Senate Case Study Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharon Angle (R)
Harry Reid is dead. Now if only the GOP can find someone to entomb him, perhaps he will not do yet again what he has done his entire career, which is miraculously come back to life to horrify state and national Republicans. - Las Vegas Suns Jon Ralston in Jan. 2009
Harry Reid 4-time incumbent, 2-term congressman First elected 1982 Majority Leader, easily won re- election in 2004 (61 to 35 percent) 33 percent Nevada approval rating (Jan. 2010) 8 percent favorability rating nationally (Jan. 2010)
Sharon Angle (R) Reno, Nevada native Tea Party backed conservative Former state assemblywoman Former school board member Failed in run for U.S. congress seat in 2006
Nevada: A Microcosim of Americas Struggles Highest Unemployment in Nation (14 % in Oct.) Highest Illegal Alien Population Highest foreclose rate in Country Economy spurred by gaming and mining 17 Counties, mostly rural and Republican Clark County accounts for 70% state population
THE ON-AIR AD CAMPAIGN Nasty and Personal Lone TV debate (no audience) was a flop Angles Ad Message - Reed supports illegal aliens - Reid to blame for economy, unemployment and foreclosures in Nevada Reids Ad message - Angle too Dangerous and Extreme for Nevada
NEVADAS Spending Spree Total Spent = $54 million Angle = $28.2 million Reid = $26 million Outside spending = $17.5 million
Public Polling Misses the Mark CompanyDateAngleReidMargin PPP10/30-10/314746Angle +1 Fox /Rasmussen10/30-10/304845Angle +3 LVRJ/Mason Dixon10/25-10/274945Angle +4 Rasmussen10/25-10/254945Angle +4 CNN/Time10/20-10/264945Angle +4 Rasmussen10/17-10/175047Angle +3 LVRJ/Mason Dixon10/11-10/ Angle +2 Rasmussen10/11-10/114948Angle +1 Actual Results 11/ Reid +5.6
2010 Results by County County ( % electorate) Reid % Angle % Reid Margin Clark (61%) ,492 Washoe (19%) , RURAL counties (19%) ,880 TOTAL ,124
Keys to Reids survival Incumbency advantage Ground game (getting supporters to the polls) – Reid won late deciders 75 – 20 percent Portray Angle as too dangerous and extreme Cater to minorities
Reids Minority Report
Nevada Exit polls
What Happened? Rasmussen – miscalculated Reids appeal among unaffiliated voters CNN – the race flipped in final day Mason-Dixon – Underestimated ground game
Bibliography Abraham, Ryan. Interview of Harry Reid Campaign Volunteer. 10 Nov Personal Interview. Associated Press (1). Poll: Harry Reids Approval Rating at 33 Percent in Nevada. The Boston Herald. 10 Jan Web Associated Press (2). Feds Slate $57.2 million in housing aid for Nevada. HarryReid.com News. 29 Sep Web n_housing_aid_for_nevada/ Associated Press (3). Unemployment surges in Nevada cities. My4 News. Web. 29 Sep Ball (1), Molly. Comeback: How did Harry Reid do it? Politico. 4 Nov Ball (2), Molly. No debate over Nevada debate. Politico. 15 Oct Web. Catanese, David. Nevada Senate polling draws scrutiny. Politico. 10 Nov Web. Damon, Annjeanette. Sen. Harry Reid wins fifth term against anti- incumbent fervor.The Las Vegas Sun. 2 Nov Web. Goldberg, Delen. Harry Reids near-perfect game plan makes victory look like childs play. The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov Web. Green, Steve. Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide. The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept Web. Hagar, Ray. Who is Sharon Angle. Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, Green, Steve. Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide. The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept Web. Hagar, Ray. Who is Sharon Angle. Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, 2010.
Bibliography cont. Hananoki, Eric. Sharon Angle brags about her fundraising from friendly outlets like Fox News. Media Matters for America. 22 Sep Web. Lewison, Jed. Sue Lowdens health barter plan. DailyKosTV. 20 Apr Web Video. Manu, Raju, Sharon Angle burns through money in third quarter. Politico. 15 Oct Web. Ralston (1), Jon. One Word: Preparation. The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov Web. Ralston (2), John, Ralstons Flash, The Las Vegas Sun. 30 Oct Web. Sebelius, Steve. Tea Party: Angle gets the nod. Citylife Presents SlashPolitics. 15 Apr Seigel, Elyse. Top Nevada Republican endorses Harry Reid, slams Sharon Angle. The Huffington Post. 7 Oct Web. Slevin, Peter. New Arizona law puts police in 'tenuous' spot. The Washington Post.