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Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest.

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Presentation on theme: "Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and carbon conservation in Indonesia

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3 More mouths to feed...

4 Higher quality food... (Beef makes you a stronger man)

5 More energy...

6 Conserve biodiversity...

7 Cap GHG emissions...

8 Sustain development and livelihoods...

9 Food Development Biodiversity Energy Emissions

10 Food or fuel?

11 Biodiversity or food?

12 Food Development Biodiversity Energy Emissions

13 Trade-off n. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.

14 Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.

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17 Where & How?

18 Production target Business-As-Usual: Target most productive areas for oil palm Forest preservation: Target degraded areas & avoid forests Food production: Avoid areas suitable for food cultivation Carbon conservation: Avoid lands rich in carbon Hybrid strategy: Consider all priorities Development pathways (scenarios) Current production

19 Outcome variables… Area required for oil palm Forests & biodiversity Food production capacity Carbon stocks

20 Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala) GIS data layers:

21 ABD est vailable ata

22 Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala) GIS data layers:New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

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24 Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

25 Download from:

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27 Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario Download from:

28 Financial returns Livelihoods Future Add-ons … and others

29 Conclusion Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities

30 Conclusion Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities Tradeoffs could be minimized through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy

31 Thank you for your attention! (More information:


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