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Introduction I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs I have used Hulbert Financial Digest To select Stock…But not for timing Hulbert Newsletters with.

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Presentation on theme: "Introduction I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs I have used Hulbert Financial Digest To select Stock…But not for timing Hulbert Newsletters with."— Presentation transcript:

1 Introduction I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs I have used Hulbert Financial Digest To select Stock…But not for timing Hulbert Newsletters with the highest return which often have high Betas My objective is not to buy & hold

2 Hulbert Hulbert says easiest way to loss money, follow Last Years hottest NL. Best results – NLs with good 10–15 yr returns Hulbert says that a NLs can be a good stock pickers or good timers but not both Timing - Pat Finnegan's Stock Chart timing signal Using signals for Stock Entry and Exsist

3 Studying News Letters Hulbert has been publishing for 33 yrs Looking for NL to help select stocks Hulbert Financial Digest tracks 189 NL

4 Out Line of Presentation A Newletters can contain one Portfolio or as many as 9 portfolios Hulbert data base: NLs monthly return (1 - 9 Portfolios) Every Portfolios (inside NL) monthly return Hulbert is reporting monthly on 541 Portfolios at this time. NL-P

5 Hulbert Goal is find Newsletters that have good performance over 15, 10, 5 years Some of these top Portfolios suffer major declines during Financial Crisis & early It appears that Portfolios with high returns also have a very high Beta. (When the market is going down these Portfolios go down fast, you lose more than the market averages).

6 Raw Return NL-P First slide covers YTD July / /13 Second slide covers months 1/ /12 Third slide reviews last three years 1/ /12 Fourth slide will review last five years 1/ /12 Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/03 – 12/12 Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/98 – 12/12

7 July YTD 2013 Performance Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 26% Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 106% Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 39% Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 21% Linde Equity Report1P 39%

8 ONE YR PERFORMANCE as of 12/2012 by NL-P Annualize Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 210% Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 74% Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 50% Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 45% Linde Equity Report1P 23%

9 Three Yr Performance as of 12/12 by NL-P Annualized Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stk 73% Medical Technology–Traders Portfolio 21% Buyback Letter – Health & Bio – Tech 24% Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >$1B 22% Linde Equity Report 1P 11%

10 Five YR as of 12/2012 by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/08 Investment Reporter- Higher Risk Stks 17% Medical Technology Stk – Trader P -14% Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 8% Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 0% Linde Equity Report 1P 6%

11 Ten YR as of 12/12 by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/03 The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 20% Medical Technology- Trader P 20% Buyback Letter – Health & Bio 17% Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 13% Linde Equity Report 1P 9%

12 Fifteen YRs Jan Dec 2012 The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 8% Medical Technology- Trader P XX Buyback Letter – Health & Bio XX Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 10% Linde Equity Report 1P XX

13 Investment Reporter Cost per year $337 p/yr Number of Portfolios - 13 started 1941 FrequencyWeekly Best Portfolio 10yrs P - Higher Risk - 20% P – Conservative stk - 18% Strategy – Fundamental + L/T view Average Holding Period 5 years Number of Securites P-High Risk - 2 Volatility vs Wilshire 11% higher 75% Canadian, 25% US stock

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15 Buyback Letter Cost per year $195 p/yr Number of Portfolios - 9 started 1997 FrequencyMonthly Portfolios5P Best Health & Bio Tech Strategy – Efficient market over looks stk buyback Average Holding Period 11 Months Volatility vs Wilshire 5% less

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17 Turnaround Letter Cost per year $ 195p/yr No. of Portfolio 3 started 1987 Strategy– Stk to recover from previous period Number of Securites – 19 Average Holding period 863 days Volatility vs Wilshire 70% more

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19 Forbes Special Situation Cost per year $295 p/yr Number of Portfolios one started 2001 Strategy –Fundamental Frequency once a month with 1 stk p/mo Number of Securites – 13 Average Holding period 231 days Volatility vs Wilshire 70% higher

20 Linde Cost per year $149 p/yr started 2001 FrequencyMonthly with one stk Strategy– Stk with high equity returns Number of Securites 13 Average Holding period 572 days Volatility vs Wilshire 89% more

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22 NL-P Draw Down annz 14 Jan 08 thru Feb 09 Investment Reporter- High Risk -63% Medical Tech – Trader Portfolio -67% Buyback Letter- Health & Bio -38% Turnaround Letter- Small Cap >1B -72% Linde Equity -53% Forbes Special Situation-25%

23 Conclusion Best performers have high Beta to the market Need to have a exit plan for Bear Mkt Should consider the Investment Reporter Published since 1941 Negative – 75% of allocation Canadian Stocks Some Canadian Stocks thinly traded


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