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Design to Improve the Productivity and Execution of Gravity Surveys

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1 Design to Improve the Productivity and Execution of Gravity Surveys
https://hazards.fema.gov/femaportal/wps/portal/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDCyNfM_OAYGcLA2cjdwMnwwADKADKR2LKmxrD5fHrDgfZh18_WB4HcDTQ9_PIz03Vj9SPMscwxSLABGZKZE5qemJypX5BboRBlkmoIgDulWf9/dl3/d3/L0lDU0lKSWdrbUNTUS9JUFJBQUlpQ2dBek15cXpHWUEhIS80QkVqOG8wRmxHaXQtYlhwQUh0Qi83XzA4Mk02N1BTQzgwQzJHMEI5UDQwMDAwMDAwLzdoYllFNjcxNDAwNTQvc2EubGVnZW5kLkxlZ2VuZEZvcm1BY3Rpb24!/#7_082M67PSC80C2G0B9P https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=SC06goSEFfTi3M&tbnid=qdrtgfCHBDOx7M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nydailynews.com%2Fnews%2Fhurricane-sandy-strikes-east-coast-gallery &ei=21slUZFhtIbRAZ3OgeAK&psig=AFQjCNGZ9NxEcDTpqGKb1L8X5SahubO8bg&ust= Evan Demick Kyle Luukkonen Sadeep Nonis Yuri Zhylenko Sponsor: Sandra Preaux - NOAA

2 Agenda Context Review Stakeholder Analysis Problem & Need Statements
Method of Analysis & Simulation Recommendation & Conclusion

3 What is a Gravity Survey?
Collection of measurements of the acceleration of gravity. Accelerations are used to model the earth’s geoid. The geoid model is used to determine elevations. Mountains have greater mass than a valley, so the pull of gravity is stronger near mountains

4 Importance of Gravity Surveys
Accurately measure the height and flow of water in flat areas to make efficient use of water resources. Variations in gravity represent different densities beneath the surface. Variations may represent petroleum, natural gas, and various metals. Plan evacuation routes for low lying coastal areas. FEMA requires the use of survey data for flood control certificates.

5 History of Gravity Surveys
National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) Originally known as the Sea Level Datum of 1929. Based on mean sea level (MSL) at 26 tidal gauges between the United States and Canada. 21 in the U.S. and 5 in Canada Defined by the observed heights at each tidal gauge and the elevations of all benchmark locations. MSL is not a constant. Impacted through wind, atmospheric pressure, water temperature and salinity.

6 History of Gravity Surveys
North American Vertical Datum of 1988 NAVD ‘88 was established in 1991 to replace NGVD 29’. Data points collected through geodetic leveling and satellites. Data is very sparse. Errors in measurements as high as 2 meters. Majority of data collected in the 70’s and 80’s.

7 Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum (GRAV-D)
Created in 2007 to complete a thorough survey of the gravity field over the United States and it’s territories. NGS Federally Mandated project (80-373). Designed to replace existing gravity measurements from NAVD ‘88. Could see a potential economic benefit of $4.8 billion over fifteen years. Based primarily on flood plain mapping and avoidance costs for leveling.

8 Logistics Diagram Need to add an aditional slide either before or after this to elaborate more on this process. Need to talk about our data distributions at this point (at least introduce them to the audience so they can get a feel for where they are coming from) and talk about how they play a role in the process.

9 Annual Target Identification
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 28% 36% 44% 52% 60% 68% 76% 84% 92% 100% Percentages represent the annual goals for the GRAV-D project starting in FY2013. Currently, NOAA has been reaching their yearly targets of 5.6% per year. NOAA will need to increase yearly output to 8% to reach 2022 completion goal. We need an exact percentage for out target instead of 5-6%. It would also be helpful to show the yearly breakdown of past surveys instead of this estimate.

10 Project Gap 23% Targeted Completion Year

11 Historical Survey Data
Timeframe – 2008 through 2012 Important factors Weather, Aircraft Maintenance, Aircraft Repair, Instrument Issues, and Personnel Days. Need to add in the exact start date and the “end” date for this set of data. Probably sometime in 2008 (if anyone knows a month, good) and ending in Its easy for us to see, but we can add some text below with the specifics. Also might want to point out any outliers.

12 Survey Zones

13 Historical Data Distributions
Factors Type of Distribution Mean (days) Standard Deviation Square Error Aircraft Maintenance Beta 5.57 8.18 0.036 Aircraft Repair 3.85 6.77 0.025 Equipment Repair 2.14 3.80 0.035 Weather Delay 4.98 4.00 0.021 Personnel Day Gamma 3.06 1.84 0.005 Need to rank these by their importance. Also need to discuss the difference between maintenance and repair (one is scheduled, the other is not). Probably should talk about this at the cartoon.

14 Deming’s Theory Theory - Anomalies in quality are variations outside the control limits of a process. W. Edwards Deming To meet program target completion goals the variation of the delays in each process must be reduced. Quality Variance

15 Agenda Context Review Stakeholder Analysis Problem & Need Statements
Method of Analysis & Simulation Recommendation & Conclusion

16 Stakeholder Relationship Diagram
Drive home the positives and the negatives. So, who helps the process. Also talk through the loops instead of just randomly pointing.

17 Planning Stakeholders
Objectives Tensions NOAA Responsible for project management. Limited funding for implementing gravitational survey. Airplane Contractors Supports gravitational survey objectives. Limitations on flight paths and aircraft use. Pilots and Support Crews Main objective is to collect physical data. Limited amount of time and funding. Department of Commerce Provides funding for project. Requires annual completion targets. Residents Receive elevation measurements. Needs to give additional support to NOAA FEMA Acquire the survey data for flood control certificates. Limited on survey data completed for flood control certificates. Again, Positives and Negatives. Also, don’t just read off of this.

18 Stakeholder Relationship Diagram

19 Execution Stakeholders
Objectives Tensions NOAA Responsible for project management. Limited funding for implementing gravitational survey. Pilots Flies the planes to allow the data to be collected. Limited hours that can be flown. Ground Crews Repairs the planes. Limited amount of time and supplies or parts for repairs. Surveyors Collects the physical datum. Limited amount of time and accuracy with equipment.

20 Agenda Context Review Stakeholder Analysis Problem & Need Statements
Method of Analysis & Simulation Recommendation & Conclusion

21 Problem Statement NOAA has to reach 8% geographic area coverage annually. A plan to reduce variability within the gravitational survey is needed to maximize coverage within budget. Before Fiscal Year 2022

22 Need Statement NOAA must complete the 8% annual quota but receives limited funding from the Department of Commerce. Making the gravity survey reduce variability will remove the tension with the Department of Commerce on NOAA’s need for more financial backing by decreasing the time needed to complete a survey block. Lets see if we can combine the problem and need into one clear slide.

23 Agenda Context Review Stakeholder Analysis Problem & Need Statements
Method of Analysis & Simulation Recommendation & Conclusion

24 Design Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Focus on Logistics Process Improve the execution of gravitational surveys and reduce variance in several variables which cause extra delays and unnecessary downtime. Alternative 2 Acquire additional resources The number of aircraft, equipment suites, and personnel limits the amount of surveys that can be completed annually. Alternative 3 Combine Alternatives 1 & 2 Maximizes the output, but is constrained by budget. These are items that may need to be introduced in the context

25 Value Hierarchy US Gravity Survey Availability (0.35) Area Coverage
(0.43) Time (0.22) Get rid of budget and make utility vs cost Need to add in the utility chart Rank each process based on difficulty to implement.

26 Black Box Model Explain each part of this (inputs and outputs), don’t leave anything out

27 Simulation Used historical data to build a distribution for each process block. Assume process independence. Run the simulation for 10,000 replications and compare results. Make sure to talk through the simulation and explain each part of it!!

28 Verification – Data Comparison
Simulation Output (Base Case) Mean: days Worst case: days Historical Data Analysis Mean: days Worst Survey: 76 days Worst Values: 130 days Explain where these come from

29 Verification – Data Correlation
Weather Delay Aircraft Maintenance Aircraft Repair Equipment Repair Personnel Day 1 -0.21 -0.066 0.49 0.17 -0.16 0.62 -0.029 -0.24 0.33 May need a new title What should the takeaway be from this slide??? Need to add text and talk about why we did this and make the case that these are independent. Symmetric correlation coefficient Negative relationship – As the duration of one process increases, the duration of the corresponding process decreases Positive relationship – As the duration of one process increases, the duration of the corresponding process increases

30 Design of Experiment Reduce the variance of each input variable by 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. Run 10,000 replications after each change. Calculate the days to completion. (10%) = (μ - min) * min (50%) = μ (90%) = (max - μ) * μ Analyze which variables have the biggest impact on the survey by subtracting the new value from the base case.

31 Data Analysis Inputs Outputs Process Variance Reduction
10% to completion (days) 50% to completion (days) 90% to completion (days) Aircraft Maintenance 5% 22.67 43.97 96.79 10% 22.66 43.92 96.38 15% 22.64 43.82 95.80 20% 22.92 43.44 92.88 25% 22.98 43.38 92.46 Aircraft Repair 43.94 96.95 22.65 43.88 96.71 43.84 96.46 22.63 43.80 96.19 22.62 43.74 95.87 Equipment Repair 22.71 43.99 96.94 22.74 43.96 96.70 22.77 43.93 96.47 22.79 43.87 96.16 22.97 94.15 Weather Delay 44.01 97.20 44.00 97.24 97.27 97.30 97.31 Personnel Day 23.16 23.11 96.66 23.07 96.61 23.04 96.57 23.01 96.53 Lablel the inputs and outputs (up top) Rank in terms of importance and circle the important parameters.

32 Results Double check weather

33 Max Delay Reduction (days) Mitigation Strategies
Results Factors Rank in Variability Max Delay Reduction (days) Mitigation Strategies Aircraft Maintenance 1 4.70 Additional maintenance personnel. Preventative maintenance. Aircraft Repair 3 1.29 Improved maintenance. Available spare parts. Equipment Repair 2 3.01 Back up equipment. Weather Delay 5 -0.15 Weather analysis from regional historical data. Personnel Day 4 0.63 Schedule days off around other delays. Actually brief this slide and talk about it rather than just saying, here are results Also rank 1 – 5, not 1,3,2… The preventative maintenance could be trouble, remember a,b,c,d checks for aircraft. I know them.

34 Utility vs Cost

35 Agenda Context Review Stakeholder Analysis Problem & Need Statements
Method of Analysis & Simulation Recommendation & Conclusion

36 Recommendations Alternative 1 – Focus on the logistics process of the surveys by allocating budget and resources towards improving parameters based on their rank in variability. This method has the least cost while still providing good way for survey execution based on the output value. Follow delay mitigation strategies to maximize the performance and data gathering of the survey. Need to add quantitative data to this.

37 Conclusion Variability reduction will reduce the time to conduct an average survey by days based on 25% variability reduction. More surveys will be completed in 44 days or less. Save up to 47.4 days of survey time annually. Enough time to conduct another survey. Fewer days spent on survey results in less spending. Mention where the 3 and 9 came from! Need to explain more Add chart of survey days on 25% variability reduction

38 Questions?

39 EXTRA SLIDES/OLD SLIDES

40 Design to Improve the Productivity and Execution of Gravity Surveys
Evan Demick, Kyle Luukkonen, Sadeep Nonis, Yuri Zhylenko

41 National Geodetic Survey
The National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has a clearly defined mission statement: “Define, maintain and provide access to the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS) to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.” (NOAA 2012) The National Geodetic Survey (NGS) is a government supported program that provides positioning information to the nation. NGS has several different projects currently underway (including GRAV-D and CORS) to aid in the measuring of elevation, longitude, latitude, and shoreline data.

42 History of Gravity Surveys
NAVD ‘88 was established in 1991 to replace the existing Sea Level Datum from 1929. Surface measurements were taken using a technique called leveling. Surveys were conducted over many years by numerous outside sources. Data is very sparse. Locations like Alaska have very few measurements due to terrain. A gap is also present along the coastlines. Need to consider doing a history of vertical datums.

43 North American Vertical Datum
Measurements are outdated and have been skewed due to crustal movements (last collected in the 70’s and 80’s). Many markings have been destroyed by regional development and poor maintenance. There is a transcontinental tilt from the SE to NW of the U.S. for short wavelength gravity measurements. Errors in measurements as high as 2 meters.

44 Importance of Gravity Surveys
FEMA requires the use of survey data for flood control certificates. Floodplain maps also determine whether or not homes or buildings require flood insurance under the National Flood Insurance Program A FEMA run program with over $650 billion in insured assets. Mapping gravity can improve the accuracy of atomic clocks which are used in many electronic systems. Provide measurements that are geographically continuous rather than points based on physical monuments.

45 Importance of Gravity Surveys
Floodplain maps are used to determine land use and building code requirements. Builders must have site plans and matching elevation data to help minimize any potential damage. Planning the development of new buildings and infrastructure. Variations in gravity represent different densities beneath the surface which can be used to detect petroleum, natural gas, and various metals. Mapping gravity can improve the accuracy of atomic clocks which are used in many electronic systems. Provide measurements that are geographically continuous rather than points based on physical monuments.

46 Importance of Gravity Surveys
Road construction currently uses conventional geodetic leveling. Upgraded gravity surveys could replace conventional leveling for road works and save state and local municipalities as much as $300 billion per year. Replace leveling for sewage systems, water supply, and mass transit activities. Monitor changes over time in crustal motion to predict earthquakes and water flow.

47 GRAV-D Objectives Redefine the US vertical datum and replace geodetic leveling in large areas with GPS measurements and a gravimetric geoid model to determine orthometric heights. Redefine and improve the vertical component of NSRS. Provide a vertical datum that is more economical than traditional leveling.

48 Equipment A test mass is first dropped and allowed to fall freely inside a vacuum chamber. The test mass will fall roughly 7 cm and the actual distance will be measured precisely using a laser interferometer and a rubidium standard atomic clock. As the test body falls, optical interference fringes are generated by the laser interferometer. These fringes are counted and timed with the atomic clock. The measurements of time and distance are then fitted to a parabolic trajectory that produces an accurate measure of the gravitational acceleration. The A10 provides measurements without the need for post-processing, and so reduces any additional overhead required to run the machine.

49 Areas with Completed Surveys
The GRAV-D program has already covered several areas since starting in 2007. Eastern Alaska. Gulf of Mexico (focusing primarily on Louisiana and areas struck by Hurricane Katrina). The Great Lakes Region. California Coastline.

50 Survey Area Layout

51 Survey Area Layout Design
Google Earth Image Provided by NOAA

52 Areas with Completed Surveys
Remove

53 Types of Wavelength Measurements
Remove

54 Process for Completing Survey

55 Wavelength Measurements
Measurements close to the planet capture short-wavelength and low-magnitude features. Measurements by plane capture intermediate-wavelength and midrange-magnitude features. Measurements by the satellites “GOCE” and “GRACE” capture long-wavelength and high-magnitude features. The satellites measure in 250x250 km data points and because of this the Satellite data cannot help fix the surface data because many of the surface surveys are smaller than 200x200 km.

56 GRAV – D Ellipsoidal heights are more common and much easier to find using GPS technology. Cannot be used to model water flow. Orthometric heights are related to water flow and can be used in floodplain mapping. Sometimes referred to as “height above sea level” To find orthometric heights, a model of the geoid must be created using measurements of the acceleration of gravity near the earth’s surface.

57 Coast and Geodetic Survey Act
Public Law Objective is to provide a national coordinated spatial reference system. Will provide orientation, coordinated positions, and elevations at specific points for mapping, planning, and development. Extend the National Spatial Reference System into areas that are not currently covered to meet infrastructure needs. Remove https://www.cfda.gov/?s=program&mode=form&tab=step1&id=40dbf9b68027de96a134c38f069efa3d

58 Equipment The main pieces of technology in an equipment suite are a Gravimeter, Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), and GPS Base station A gravimeter is a device used to measure the vertical acceleration of gravity on the earth’s surface. The gravimeters run on the Turnkey Airborne Gravity System (TAGS). An IMU utilizes three accelerometers and three gyroscopes to measure the aircrafts current rotation and acceleration. A base station is a GPS receiver at a fixed location. It gives corrected position data for increased accuracy. Remove

59 Project Constraints NGS only owns two equipment suites, so only two field teams may run at one time $2.4 million budget per year for all survey operations (including aircraft, fuel, pilots, and NOAA personnel travel costs) Must use an airport with contract fuel when working on a government aircraft A standard block is 400 km by 500 km, which is approximately a 100 flight hour survey Blocks must overlap by km on the sides to make the survey data continuous Remove

60 Project Constraints Generally northern areas in the summer, southern areas in the winter Avoid Eastern seaboard (especially SE) during Hurricane season Avoid Tornado Alley in Spring and Fall Go to Oregon/Washington area June-August Go to Western Alaska June - September Remove

61 Contract Aircraft Availability
Remove

62 Constraints Remove

63 Distribution for Survey Days
Remove

64 Distribution for Weather
Remove

65 Project Constraints

66 Project Constraints

67 Process Chart Process Controllable
Tensions (affects air crews, contractors, and NOAA’s projected time for completion) Transit no Time variability affects total completion time for survey Prep Survey yes Data collection time restraints and accuracy of measurements Break-down Delays Unplanned time delay Weather Delays Unplanned time delay, seasonal awareness can aid delay severity Equipment Removal Low time variability calls for no variability reduction analysis

68 Planning Procedure Map out the survey blocks across all the required regions Select airports that maximize area coverage and meet the necessary constraints Assign survey blocks to each aircraft for a specific year Calculate the total cost by adding all the variables Fuel cost, hangar cost, hourly wages, hotel / meal cost, travel cost Calculate cost risk for design comparison

69 Need Statement (old) NOAA needs to complete the 8% annual quota but receives limited funding from the Department of Commerce.  Making the gravity survey more efficient will remove the tension with the Department of Commerce on NOAA’s need for more budget. Each Airplane Contractor needs to have their planes used evenly and fairly.  The plan that is created needs to not rule out certain aircraft based on its constraints to minimize tension between each Airplane Contractor. NOAA needs the physical gravity datum but the pilots and support crews have a limited amount of time that they can work.  NOAA needs to hire more pilots and/or implement a more efficient use of the pilot’s hours to maximize time in the air for gravity surveys. NOAA tries to prioritize each state based on State Government requests. NOAA needs to be willing to deviate from their set flight plans if in return a State Government can help fund the gravity survey.

70 Problem Statement (old)
NOAA needs to complete 8% coverage of Continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and American Samoa per year.  Since 2008 NOAA has not reached their annual goal and have only covered around 5-6% per year of the U.S. and territories.  A plan to reduce variability within NOAA's budget is needed to reach their 8% per year quota so they can complete the GRAV-D project by the Fiscal Year 2022.

71 Survey Data

72 Survey Data

73 Survey Data

74 Cost Estimation

75 Sample Cost Calculation
Total Cost = (Total Fuel Cost + Total Per Diem Cost) × 110% (The addition of 10% simulates additional known—but difficult to pre-estimate—costs, such as shipping, etc.).

76 Distribution for Prep

77 Distribution for Transit

78 Distribution for Aircraft Maintenance

79 Distribution for Instrument Issues

80 Distribution for Personnel Day

81 Design Alternatives Allocate current resources which would reduce the variance in major points of the project. Currently, NOAA operates with six aircraft, 4 teams, and two equipment packages. Determine major factors in reducing variability (backup aircraft or equipment maintenance). Add additional resources. To reduce variability add additional aircraft, equipment suites, or personnel.

82 Design Alternatives Allocate current resources (focus on performance).
Currently, NOAA operates with six aircraft, 4 teams, and two equipment suites. Determine major factors in reducing variability (backup aircraft or equipment maintenance). Add additional resources (focus on availability). To reduce variability add additional aircraft, equipment suites, or personnel. Add additional contract aircraft to increase aircraft availability. Additional resources and allocation (combination)

83 Design Alternatives The second alternative would be to add additional resources such as aircraft, equipment suites, or personnel as well as allocating them in an optimal manner. By having limited resources, NOAA is severely deterred in the number of surveys they can complete during a fiscal year. Additional assets will cost more money, but will speed up the process by allowing multiple surveys to be done at the same time and may be more beneficial in the long run of the project.

84 Sensitivity Analysis Identify Parameter with biggest impact on time and cost. Identify the percent change in a parameter to…

85 Preliminary Recommendations
Our simulation is similar to the real thing

86 Base Case

87 Aircraft Maintenance -5%

88 Aircraft Maintenance -10%

89 Aircraft Maintenance -15%

90 Aircraft Maintenance -20%

91 Aircraft Maintenance -25%

92 Aircraft Repair -5%

93 Aircraft Repair -10%

94 Aircraft Repair -15%

95 Aircraft Repair -20%

96 Aircraft Repair -25%

97 Equipment Repair -5%

98 Equipment Repair -10%

99 Equipment Repair -15%

100 Equipment Repair -20%

101 Equipment Repair -25%

102 Weather Delay -5%

103 Weather Delay -10%

104 Weather Delay -15%

105 Weather Delay -20%

106 Weather Delay -25%

107 Personnel Day -5%

108 Personnel Day -10%

109 Personnel Day -15%

110 Personnel Day -20%

111 Personnel Day -25%

112 Base Case vs Variance Reduction

113 Base Case vs Variance Reduction

114 Works Cited GRAV-D Science Team (2011). "Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum (GRAV-D) Project, Airborne Gravity Data; Block AS01". Available 09/28/2012. Online at: GRAV-D Science Team (2011). "Block AS01 (Central South 01); GRAV-D Airborne Gravity Data User Manual." Theresa Diehl, ed. Version 1. Available 09/28/2012. Online at: GRAV-D Science Team (2011). "GRAV-D General Airborne Gravity Data User Manual." Theresa Diehl, ed. Version 1. Available 09/28/2012. Online at: LaCoste , Micro-g . "A-10 Gravimeter User’s Manual." A-10 Outdoor Absolute Gravimeter. Micro-g LaCoste, July Web. 10 Oct <http://www.microglacoste.com/pdf/A-10Manual.pdf>. "IEEE-USA Consultants Fee Survey Report." Exality.com. IEEE-USA E-Books, Web. 14 Oct <http://www.exality.com/files/ConsultantFeeSurvey2011.pdf>. Special thanks to the project managers at NOAA for providing much of the information needed for the context and constraints.

115 Assist Tool Preview This thing seems problematic. I think we get rid of it from the presentation and work on it on the side. They seem really confused by this and seem to think we are using it to make our recommendations with it.


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