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1 Cruising back to calm waters: The Holland America Line Case Estafeta Consultants Juana - Alejandro – Belén - Gabriel.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Cruising back to calm waters: The Holland America Line Case Estafeta Consultants Juana - Alejandro – Belén - Gabriel."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Cruising back to calm waters: The Holland America Line Case Estafeta Consultants Juana - Alejandro – Belén - Gabriel

2 Mandate 2 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix Maintain our global position as a reference in the Premium Cruise Industry by weathering the current crisis through the adaptation of our products and services, following current demand trends, and redefining our strategy to increase our presence in Europe in the next 5 years.

3 Short Run Plan 3 Profit: $ 22,907, Allow and encourage payments in installments Incentive travel agencies Boost on-board spending Focus on bolstering one-week cruise sales HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

4 Incentive travel agencies Immediate Action 4 2 months, 3 equal installments Through Travel Agents or click option on Web Cancellation Fees apply $50 per passenger in Casino chips 3 x 2 in Spas and Massage Windfall bonus incentive scheme $1,000 per 50 bookings for a limited time Boost on-board spending Allow & encourage payments in installments 123 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

5 Trends 5 Campaign: You deserve a break. You deserve a vacation. Price reduction without extremely compromising margin Redistribute ships: -Increase Caribbean & Mexico during colder months - Alaska – Bermuda Bolster One-Week Cruise Sales HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

6 How long will the slide last? 2009 Going on 2010 Contraction in demand and increased uncertainty -30% in price of luxury/leisure products Risk Factors Price of Oil Lagged Crisis Creating Precedents with Price Discounts CAPEX Burden In our favor: solid balance sheet of CCL Dec 2008, liquidity of US$1.3bn of cash availability under revolving credit facilities. All the companys credit facility matures in HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

7 Constraints that we will solve… The European growth potential is significant and represent and important opportunity for the future HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

8 Why has been the European market so far underpenetrated? More negative impact on the perception of Europeans and foreigners than in North America Limited number of destinations and poor logistics to serve certain ports due to high number of Inland population 1 Low quality of the service and not adapted to European tastes Weather conditions in certain areas do not allow full coverage during the year 2 3 Constraints that we will solve… HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

9 9 Snapshot of the regional diversity of Europe Norwegian Fjords Northern Europe Black Sea & Mediterranean East Baltic Mediterranean West HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

10 Dealing with the Euro Zone 10 RegionPorts Cruise Lines Carnival Brands Total Trips Trips/ Cities Norwegian Fjords ,63 Baltics ,20 Northern Europe ,40 Mediterranean West ,15 Black Sea & Med. East ,71 Baltics and Mediterranean East & Black Sea present an underpenetration compared to the northern regions HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

11 11 Existing mechanism to attract costumers Web Site The company has a very professional web site where customers can choose their destinations and packages ×Maturation of internet in long term ( 10years?) ×No real interaction with the seller Tour Operator Major channel of distribution engaged by regional partners based on commission (13%): ×Outsourcing of a major component of the business HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

12 Screening the tour operator universe 12 TOTAL AVERAGE Product Offering (30%) All Leisure Group Plc Distribution Channels (30%) Operating Regions (15%) Sales Volume (15%) Salamis Tours Public Ltd. Western & Oriental plc. Criteria Brand Recognition (10%).30 Amathus Public Ltd..75 Travelzest plc. UnfavorableFavorable HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

13 13 Acquiring a pan european tour operator to enhance customer captation Operating performance Valuation £19m of Enterprise Value of the company £8m of current net debt Wacc: 12% assuming a conservative scenario 15% premium over EV Bid price of £22m Returns from acquisition W & O is expected to sell over trips over the next 4 years where 80% are cruise trips Will facilitate transfer of clients from different regions Decrease of number of commission fees (10-13% of the price!) HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

14 Adapting to european tastes 14 European food and products 1 Important chefs on board Typical food of the countries / cities that we visit Cultural packages of the visited places --Videos -- Books -- Guides Payment facilities Tailoring the product will help to meet the tastes of European consumers The cultural aspect of a trip is important for an european tourist Payment facilities will always help to attract clients The industry has not made a good job in the past adapting to European eating habits. HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

15 Whats Next 15 Now Short RunLong Run Europe Tailoring our products to the current demand t rends Maintaining our short-term revenue Commissions Flexible paying conditions Increasing yield on board Increase our short duration cruisers Target the workforce Adapting to the European demand Acquiring an European tour operator Horizon 1 1 month Horizon months Horizon years + American standards - HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

16 16 Cruising in troubled waters: The Holland America Line Case Estafeta Consultants Juana - Alejandro – Belén - Gabriel

17 Thank You for Your Time. Questions? Appendix: Target Market Population Appendix: Ships and Passenger Capacity Appendix: Itineraries Offered Appendix: 7D-Route Trips by Ships Appendix: Average Ticket Revenue Appendix: Marginal Revenue Calculations Appendix: Marginal Cost Calculation Appendix: Have We Hit Bottom? Appendix: Expectations of Cruise Industry Appendix: CAPEX Burdens Appendix: Risk Factors Appendix: Impact of Economic Downturn Appendix: Vacation Average Appendix: Customizing Our Services Appendix: Country Operator Analysis Appendix: DCF Backup Appendix: Tour Operator Explanation Appendix: Key ideas 17 Mandate Short Run Plan Immediate Action Trends How long will the slide last? Why has been the European market so far underpenetrated? The European growth potential Snapshot of the regional diversity of Europe Dealing with the Euro Zone Screening the tour operator universe Existing mechanism to attract costumers Acquiring a pan European tour operator to enhance customer captation Adapting to European tastes Whats Next HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

18 18 Appendix: Target Market Population TARGET MARKET US: 13,397,817 Age Distribution of Upper 10 percentile of US Income Distribution Type of Vacationers per Age Group %1,071, %6,124, %1,531, AgeCruisersVacationersNon-Vacationers %46.00%27.00% %47.00%29.00% %61.00%20.00% United States Population % Pop. with Income > 92k10% HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

19 Appendix: Target Market Population 19 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

20 Appendix: Ships and Passenger Capacity 20 HAL ShipsPassenger Capacity MS Eurodam (2008)2,044 MS Noordam (2006)1,918 MS Westerdam (2004)1,916 MS Oosterdam (2003)1,848 MS Zuiderdam (2002)1,848 MS Prinsendam (2002)793 MS Amsterdam (2000)1,380 MS Rotterdam (1997)1,316 MS Zaandam (2000)1,440 MS Volendam (1999)1,440 MS Veendam (1996)1,266 MS Ryndam (1994)1,266 MS Maasdam (1993)1,266 MS Statendam (1993)1,266 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

21 Appendix: Itineraries Offered 0-5 days: 19 itineraries (5%), 5 cruises (2%)6-8 days: 64 itineraries (16%), 213 cruises (70%)9-16 days: 138 itineraries (34%), 64 cruises (21%)17 + days: 184 itineraries (45%), 26 cruises (8%) Itineraries offered by Holland America Lines* * source: Holland America Lines HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

22 Appendix: 7D-Route Trips by Ships ALASKA 8 ships and 30 cruises average per month BERMUDA (starting 2010) 22 May, 09June, 09July, 09August, 09September, 09 Ryndam44543 Veendam34452 Statendam44453 Zaandam44434 Zuiderdam44453 Amsterdam44353 Westerdam44443 Volendam24543 TOTAL May, 10June, 10July, 10August, 10September, 10 Veendam54414 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

23 Appendix: 7D-Route Trips by Ships CARIBBEAN 4 ships and 30 cruises average per month MEXICAN RIVIERA 1 ship and 3 cruises average per month 23 October, 09November, 09December, 09January, 10February, 10 Eurodam43443 Ryndam15411 Westerdam24443 Noordam00200 TOTAL October, 09November, 09December, 09January, 10March, 10 Veendam30000 Oosterdam2434 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

24 Appendix: Average Ticket Revenue Weighted Avge. Price 1W: $991 Staterooms Penthouse Suite: PS Deluxe Veranda Suite: S Veranda Suite: A, B, BA, BB Large Outside Staterooms: C, D, DA, DD, E, EE, F, FF, G H Large Inside Staterooms: I, J, K, L, M, MM, N, NN 24 Source: Holland America Lines HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

25 Appendix: Marginal Revenue Calculations Projected Increases in Passenger Volume Cruise < 8 days: 5% / avge price $991 Cruise 8-16 days: 3.7% / avge price $1, Cruise 17+ days: 1.67% / avge price $3, Total Incremental Profits: $2,870, Total Cruises p. YearIncr. Profit per CruiseTotal Incr. Profit per Cruise per Year Total 5 Day Cruises p. Year2.5 $ 7, $ 17, Total One Week Cruises p. Year213 $ 9, $2,116, Total 2 Week Cruises p. Year38.5 $ $ 5, Total 3 Week Cruises p. Year $ 14, $ 731, HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

26 Appendix: Marginal Revenue Calculations 26 Source: Holland America Line HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

27 Appendix: Marginal Cost Calculation On-board Spending Boost profits: $20,872,500 Installment Payments Cost: $6, Publicity Campaign: $450,110 Windfall Commissions: $379, Total Cruise p. ItinerariesOCC per CruiseTotal OCC One Week230 $ $ 4, Two Weeks38.5 $ $ Three Weeks $ $ 1, Total $ 6, Per PassengerPassenger Per CruiseTotal CruisesTotal Cost $ $20,872,500 NYT Magazine Fireplace Ad $ 95, sec. National TV Commercial $350, Magazine (ie Vogue) - per issue $ 5, HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

28 Appendix: Have We Hit Bottom? 28 YES we haveNO we havent Institute of Supply Managements index of American manufacturing has rebounded from 32.9 to 36 Capital Economics' (consultancy) recovery index suggests probability that American recession has ended is less than 10% S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index: house prices through January were down 29% from their all-time peak. Standard & Poors: many commercial mortgage- backed securities are highly susceptible to downgrades House sales rose unexpectedly in February. 45% of existing homes sold were distressed properties (estimated) The fundamentals in terms of corporate profits, house prices and bank lending have not yet bottomed; valuations are not yet at fire-sale levels March: factory purchasing managers their least gloomy about new orders since last August. Vehicle sales rose 8% from February & new claims for unemployment insurance have stopped rising March witnessed 35 defaults, the largest number of non-payers in a single month since the Depression, according to Moodys. The default rate is now 7%, up from 1.5% a year ago Gross domestic product, which shrank at a 6.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, but by sinking output as businesses sought to bring inventories into line with lower sales Dysfunctional financial system: credit markets have not reflected the optimism of stocks. Banks are lining up to repay the money to free themselves from political interference, even though the loss of capital will constrain their lending Recovery*: 3Q, 09Recovery: 2Q, 10 Sources: Whistling in the Dark – The Economist (April 8 th, 2009) & A Faint Sound of Applause - The Economist (April 2 nd, 2009) *Source: Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery - NYT.com (January 2 nd, 2009) HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

29 Appendix: Expectations of Cruise Industry Expected 2009 Net Yield for CCL: -15% 29 Source: Goldman Sachs America Leisure Report (January 14 th, 2009) HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

30 Appendix: CAPEX Burdens TBD Pricetag: $425,000,000* 30 Source: Cruise Travel: New Ships – Cruiserver.net HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

31 Exposure to Increasing Fuel Prices and EPS sensitivity to price per passenger changes Appendix: Risk Factors 31 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

32 Appendix: Impact of Economic Downturn 32 Price Decreases by Cruise Companies South America-50.00% Europe-18.00% Caribbean-12.50% * Source: GBCC Case 2009 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

33 Appendix: Vacation Average 33

34 Appendix: Customizing our services 34 HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

35 35 TOTAL AVERAGE Size (40%) Sea Vacations Ireland Distribution Channels (40%) Operating Regions (20%) Cruise Neptune Russia Sabra Tours Norway Criteria.25 Cosmorama Greece.80 O.F. Gollcher Malta UnfavorableFavorable Appendix: Country Operator Analysis HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

36 Holland America Line - UK Un mundo de Cruceros Spain Delphi Reiser Switzerland Melair Portugal Globetrotter Cruiser Sweden UnfavorableFavorable TOTAL AVERAGE Size (40%) Distribution Channels (40%) Operating Regions (20%) Criteria Appendix: Country Operator Analysis HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

37 Appendix: DCF Backup HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

38 Appendix: Tour Operators Explanation 38 Company NameBusiness DescriptionTotal Revenue ($mm) Amathus Public Ltd. (CSE:ANC)Amathus Public, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and management of hotels. It owns and manages Amathus Beach Hotel in Limassol, Paphos Amathus Beach Hotel in Paphos, and the Rodian Amathus Beach Hotel on the island of Rhodes, Greece. The company also offers tour operation and tourism services, including fly-cruise packages, sea packages, and other holiday combinations. In addition, the company provides aviation and travel services comprising air and sea travel and ticketing, cargo, and airport ground handling. It operates in Cyprus, Athens, Rhodes, London, Germany, and Moscow. The company was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Limassol, Cyprus. Amathus Public, Ltd. is a member of Lanitis Group of Companies. 33 Western & Oriental plc (AIM:WEST)Western & Oriental plc operates as a luxury tour operator and travel agent, as well as operator of conference and incentive businesses. It offers packaged holidays and products to individual and corporate clients operating through various holiday and conference, and incentive brands worldwide. The company provides its services through various brands, including Western & Oriental Travel, Mediterranean Experience, Kids in the Med, Ski Dream, Tropical Locations, Ranch America, South American Experience, Harlequin Holidays, Regent Holidays, Made to Measure Holidays, Key2Holidays, Villa Select, Rainbow Tours, Western & Oriental gmbh, and Galka Golden Tours. Western & Oriental plc is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. 111,6 Travelzest plc (AIM:TVZ)Travelzest plc, along with its subsidiaries, principally operates as an online travel group in the United Kingdom and internationally. The companys travel group comprises itravel2000.com, an online travel agent specializing in the sale of travel and travel related products; VFB Holidays, which offers discovery tours, short breaks, character hotels, and river cruises in France, Germany, and Belgium; Best of Morocco that specializes in the tour operation; Fair's Fare, an airfare analyst, provides travel planning service to both private and business clients; and Captivating Cuba, an operator of tailor-made holidays and escorted tours. It also consists of Holiday Express that provides online travel services and sales, as well as sells package holidays, charter flights, and ski booking services; Faraway Holidays, which offers tailor-made holidays to various destinations in the Far East, the Middle East, Indian Ocean, South Pacific, and South America; JMB Travel that specializes in opera holidays offering a range of destinations noted for their operas and music festivals; Peng Travel, a naturist tour operator; Tapestry Collection that showcases the Turkey and Crete; The Wow House Company, which provides a portfolio of prestigious houses to rent for short breaks in the United Kingdom; and The Malaysia Experience that arranges holidays. The company was founded in 1970 and is based in Berkhamsted, the United Kingdom. 71,7 Rainbow Tours S.A. (WSE:RBW)Rainbow Tours S.A. offers travel and tourism services including foreign tourist service sales. Rainbow Tours S.A. was founded in 1990 and is based in Rotterdam, Netherlands. 65,6 Source: Ft.com HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix

39 Appendix: Key ideas to consider for 100-day planning 39 Shorter Trips (less than a week) Develop the Mediterranean journey vs Nordic Sea Prepare winter trips to Canary Island, Azores and Africa Target numerous public holidays in Europe (long weekends) Decrease seasonality downturn in winter. Higher possibilities of visits of cities and countries HAL Mandate Short Run Plan Going Euro? Conclusion Appendix


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