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Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf.

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Presentation on theme: "Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf."— Presentation transcript:

1 Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos …to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshires future. Understanding Boundaries Leadership Seacoast retreat January 8, 2014

2 Three trends

3 Growth Percent Change in NH Population 8.5% 13.8% 21.5% 24.8% 20.5% 11.4% 6.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

4 Coming and going Demographics has shaped New Hampshires destiny over the past four decades. Over that time, tens of thousands more people moved to the state than left. That population growth resulted in higher education levels, increases in average personal income and higher productivity for the state economy. But that trend has reversed itself in recent years (See pink circle. Data for 2012 is not yet available.) What steps can policymakers take in 2013 to address this slow-down in economic and population growth? Or is such growth even desirable?

5 Aging New Hampshire began the 20 th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When youve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)

6 Politics

7 ? The Left The RightHas Anything Changed?

8 The NH Legislature in 2009

9 The Legislature Clearly Changed

10 And Changed Again

11 Voting Patterns Change 1984

12 2012

13 What do these swings really mean?

14 Agenda: What is the Seacoast? Hope you walk away with –A better understanding of the Seacoast –An understanding of the Seacoast as compared to the rest of the state –A grounding in the major policy issues you will be asked to take a leadership role on in the future Justice, Education, Arts and Culture, Economic Development, Environment, Government –An understanding of the tension between regional and local issues and policies

15 15 Heres a basic overview of New Hampshires population according to the Census data from Not many surprises here. The most densely populated areas are in the states southern areas, particularly Rockingham, Hillsborough and Merrimack counties. The highest population centers are in and around Manchester and Nashua, with pockets of density scattered in the cities. The North Country remains sparsely populated. Total state population increased 6.5 percent since 2000, with 1.3 million people now calling New Hampshire home. But lets look at how that population has shifted over the past decade…..

16 5 School Administrative Units Pictionary – Draw the Seacoast 3 Hospitals 1 Mental Health Center 1 Community Health Center 1 University 3 Economic Development Hubs 4 Highways

17 What Is the Seacoast?

18 Labor Markets Hospital Service Areas Tourist Regions Watersheds Housing Markets

19 Seacoast Tourism Area

20 Large Part of the State

21 How crowded is it?

22 Income?

23 Education?

24 This map details where the growth and loss in population, town by town, occurred since Some obvious points: the biggest increases came in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. We can also see the influence that Interstate 93 has on population growth over the past decade. Other pockets of large increase: the Conway and Plymouth regions, the Lakes Region and the Upper Valley. Well return to those later. And while nearly every region saw some increase in population, the declines were focused largely on the North Country.

25 Education

26 But while the overall state population increased, the number of school-aged children fell: a loss of more than 22,000 students, or a 7 percent decline since As this map shows, that drop was spread across the state, with a few towns gaining in school-age population. But flip back to the previous map. Youll see that many of the areas that had the biggest gains in total population saw a decline in their school-aged numbers: portions Hillsborough County and the Rochester area, for instance. How might that trend shape discussions about education spending, both at the state and local level? More broadly, policymakers will have to consider what steps to take to build the education system in a state where the student population is declining.

27

28 Natives?

29 Transportation: Where do people work?

30 Coughlin et. Al. Demographics, Destiny, and Anticipating the Future of the Transportation System. A Dynamic System

31 Economic Development

32 Government, Healthcare and Manufacturing – Seacoast Region

33 Water is not a local issue

34 Ground Water Systems Analysis

35 Studies Looking at Needs/ Demand Wright and Pierce Drinking Water Infrastructure in New Hampshire: A Capital Investment Needs Analysis

36 New Hampshire Hospitals 30 Minute Drive Time Healthcare is local but …. ?

37 Watch NHs Population Change New Hampshire began the 20 th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When youve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)

38 38 The most recent Census numbers help paint a more detailed portrait of New Hampshires demographic patterns. In this map, the darker the shade of the community, the older the median age of its residents. (The statewide median age was 41.1 years in 2010, up from 37.1 in 2000.) We see here that New Hampshire can essentially be divided into two regions when it comes to age: an older northern half, and a younger southern half. But even in the younger half, there is a further subdivision, with the eastern region – between Interstate 93 and the Seacoast -- significantly younger than the western portion. How might those divisions shape future policy discussions related to health care, education and public spending? (White areas of the map are unincorporated areas for which the Census Bureau did not release information.)

39 This map plots the oldest segment of the population – those aged 85 and older – town by town. (Statewide, 1.9 percent of New Hampshires population was 85 or older in 2010.) The darker communities, those with a higher share of elderly residents, will face additional challenges in caring for that population. And as New Hampshire ages faster than the nation as a whole, these communities will pave the way for the kinds of changes likely facing the rest of the state in coming years. An older population requires a different mix of social, health care, housing, transportation and other services. How can New Hampshire best prepare for those needs?

40 What do Baby Boomers Want? Zoning

41 Page 41 US Economy Alternative Scenarios Stronger Near Term Rebound – Jobs and housing grow more than expected (10% probability) Slower Near Term – US business confidence drops due to Washington Gridlock & Europe recession worsens (25% probability) Source: Moodys Analytics, August 2013

42 Rochester-Dover

43 Portsmouth

44 44 In this context, where should we invest? Health Care Education/Workforce Natural and Cultural Resources Energy Fiscal Infrastructure Workforce Housing Regulatory Business Growth and Retention

45 Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and Competitor States

46 Overall Business Ranking

47 Human Capital Ranking

48 Workforce Housing Ranking

49 NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators

50 But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators

51 A Comment on Regions

52 52 Looking forward: The ecology of a successful economy Theres this … Human Capital Financial Capital Economic Creativity Business Base Costs of Business Infrastructure Quality of Life And then … Brad Feld A Strong Pool of Tech Founders Local Capital Killer Events Access to Great Universities Motivated Champions Local Press, Organizational Tools Alumni Outreach Wins Recycled Capital Second-Time Entrepreneurs Attractive to Engineers Tent-pole local tech companies 52

53 53 How does this relate to existing initiatives Many initiatives designed to deal with perceived long term issues. –Governor Hassan: Innovate NH Jobs –Former Governor Lynch: The green launching pad –New use of unemployment funds – train individuals to build new small businesses. –Community College System Hypertherm and Community College collaboration The Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Albany) –UNH Innovation –UNH, STEM initiatives (NHCF, Business NH coalition) –Granite State Futures – planning generally – housing and transportation. –Stay, Work, Play. Question: Are they working? Is there a problem? –Are conditions getting better/worse? –What about regional approaches

54 Can you name 5 institutions which help support informed public policy decisions in the Seacoast Region?

55 New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Want to learn more? Online: nhpolicy.org Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Our blog: policyblognh.org (603) …to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshires future. Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos


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