Presentation on theme: "2011 ARGOS consortium meeting Australia"— Presentation transcript:
12011 ARGOS consortium meeting Australia Blake OrrARPANSA
2ARGOS timeline2010-1:Testing and Evaluation of ARGOS V9.0 releases. Final release September.Upgraded BOM data (ACCESS Model) and subsequent changes to ARGOS V9.0 (provided in Service Pack 1)NZ visitAssist with installation of ARGOSProvide some trainingSetup download of Australian weather dataUpgrade ARGOS server to v9.0Japan eventSingapore visit
5Auto-forecast serverAuto-forecast allows users to have ‘scheduled’ ARGOS prognoses.Australian setupUsing ‘old’ auto-forecast methodCurrently only implemented for JapanHope to have data on web-site by the end of the yearNPW portsANSTO reactorRegional reactorsIn progress
8NPE10 NPE10 exercise (CTBTO) The aim of this new exercise is the continuation of the multi - technology approach started with the past NPE09.Simulated release of radionuclides will be the trigger scenario of the NPE10 exerciseThe following criteria have to be fulfilled for this event:- A reasonable number of phases from seismic stations.- The event magnitude (ML) is between 3.0 and 4.8.Assumptions: Single underground nuclear detonation, continuous leak of noble gas, radionuclide detections only from simulated release.Joint project with Geoscience Australia (GA).Radiological analysis – ARPANSASeismic Analysis - GA
9NPE10Data from IDC: Seismic events that fall within Possible source region (PSR)The starting point of the assessment of NPE10 exercise was the Data Fusion Bulletins posted on the IDC web-site.Table on right, shows which CTBTO stations recorded a xenon detection in the first 6 days.There were 39 individual seismic events consistently located within the PSR as identified by the PTS and ensemble modelling results, Figure on right. These events could be grouped by location:Gulf of California (24.5, ) - 35 events between 20/10/10 to 22/10/10Guatemala coast (14.9, -92.4) – 2 events on 21/10/10Wyoming (44.1, ) – 1 event on 23/10/10Wyoming (43.6, ) – 1 event on 24/10/10Aleutian islands (51.3, ) - 2 events 24/10/10Aleutian islands (51.4, ) – 1 event 23/10/10CTBTO detector stationDetection recorded (24 hour Collection Stop)27/1028/1029/1030/1031/101/11USP75XUSP74USP72CAP17RN053Stations recording detections (first 6 days)Seismic events within PSR
10NPE10 - ARGOS Gulf of California (20/10 to 22/10) Wyoming (23/10) Hy-split trajectoriesWyoming (24/10)
11Singapore visitVisit to DSO in Singapore in August Presentations on uses of ARGOS in Australia, theory of RIMPUFF model. Potential for joint projects.
12Current and future Australian ARGOS projects Distribution of new virtual machine with ARGOS 9.0 to Australian user group, ARGOS workshop/refresher trainingContinue validation of ARGOS Dispersion Model against Australian NPW Reference Accident ModelEvaluation of Food-dose models, including AGRI-CPAssessment of radiation measurement systems and network requirements for implementation of a Permanent Monitoring Station networkStandard procedures for output of modelling productsEvaluation/Implementation of ARGOS-web system
13Upgrade ideasBetter way to extract information about doses/rates at distancesCircle drawing toolMaximum dose at distance, from circle (grid marking)Mouse click to put markers on the screenSummary box of various information, concentration, dose rate. Configured in database editor perhaps, like iso-curve functionMore ARGOS runs at once (ARGOS-web may do this)Batching of runs, multiple release timesMultiple RIMPUFF installations on one PC
14Upgrade ideasSelect NWP area in prognosis setup, perhaps as a check box. Rather than as a pop-up box when you click Start. Possible integration of Bureau of Met. Hy-split model. Might be able to integrate to ARGOS like RIMPUFF, or Script request like other long-range models. Shape files attached to auto-forecast outputs. So they could be used by other GIS programs. Iso-curves on auto-forecast images. Better handling of other GRIB NWP data. Ability to use archived NOMADS data, better way to handle BoM NWP data, so different gribs could be used on same machine.
15ARGOS in AustraliaARGOS is maintained within Australia by ARPANSA, as part of emergency response and planning for radionuclide events. There is also an ARGOS user group consisting of other government agencies.Australian ARGOS User GroupFederal:State (First Responders):International :