1. Quality assessment criteria
TF Employment flash estimates
Vienna, 5-6 October 2017
Item 7

2. Quality assessment criteria:
Purpose
Assessment of test estimates
8 retrospective test estimates
8 real time estimates
Decision to start publishing or not

3. Quality assessment criteria: GDP flash
Quality criteria
Unbiased GDP t+30 estimate
Average revision between and ppt
Max 67% revision in the same direction
Limited average absolute revision
Max 0.10 ppt at t+45
Max 0.13 ppt at t+60
Sufficient country coverage
70% GDP for 2015 test quarters

4. EU28: Revision of employment growth rates
YoY, Eurostat growth estimates
Revisions
QoQ, Eurostat growth estimates
EU 28
t+75
t+165
165-75
2013Q3
-0.32
-0.31
0.01
0.03
0.09
0.07
2013Q4
-0.05
0.06
0.15
2014Q1
0.70
0.62
-0.08
0.22
0.23
2014Q2
0.69
0.77
0.30
0.34
0.04
2014Q3
0.92
0.90
-0.02
0.29
2014Q4
0.98
1.12
0.14
0.16
0.19
2015Q1
1.11
1.01
-0.10
0.32
2015Q2
0.88
1.04
0.21
0.27
0.05
2015Q3
-0.09
0.36
0.35
2015Q4
0.97
1.29
2016Q1
1.36
1.40
0.00
2016Q2
1.47
1.37
0.33
2016Q3
1.07
0.18
-0.01
2016Q4
0.99
1.14
0.39
2017Q1
1.41
1.52
0.11
0.41
0.47
Average revision
Average abs. revision
0.10
RMSQE
0.12
0.08

5. EU28: QoQ employment growth, t+75 compared to t+165

6. EA: Revision of employment growth rates
YoY, Eurostat growth estimates
Revisions
QoQ, Eurostat growth estimates
EA 19
t+75
t+165
165-75
2013Q3
-0.80
-0.79
0.01
-0.01
0.00
2013Q4
-0.46
-0.39
0.07
0.11
0.04
2014Q1
0.15
0.12
-0.03
0.08
2014Q2
0.44
0.43
0.25
0.28
2014Q3
0.64
0.74
0.10
0.22
0.23
2014Q4
0.88
0.85
0.13
2015Q1
0.81
0.82
0.19
2015Q2
0.98
0.14
0.33
0.39
0.06
2015Q3
1.09
1.06
0.31
0.02
2015Q4
1.18
1.24
0.32
2016Q1
1.41
1.45
0.34
0.35
2016Q2
1.34
-0.07
-0.04
2016Q3
1.22
0.21
0.20
2016Q4
1.15
1.36
0.36
2017Q1
1.56
0.50
Average revision
0.03
Average abs. revision
RMSQE

7. EA: QoQ employment growth, t+75 compared to t+165

8. Revision analysis of Employment flash test estimates
Criteria and thresholds
Same criteria as GDP flash?
Average revisions
Average absolute revisions
Coverage
Other suggestions?
Revisions will likely improve with time
Do Member States also test revisions performance? Results?

9. Quality assessment criteria employment: Proposal
Unbiased estimate of employment growth
Average revision between and ppt at t+75 (adjusting for errors not due to estimation)
Limited average absolute revision
Max 0.10 ppt at t+75
Sufficient country coverage
75% coverage for the four latest test quarters