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1 Internet in 2035 Vint Cerf May 2008. 2 Regional Internet Statistics - 2008 RegionInternet Population % penetration Asia510.5 Mil.13.7 % Europe348.1.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Internet in 2035 Vint Cerf May 2008. 2 Regional Internet Statistics - 2008 RegionInternet Population % penetration Asia510.5 Mil.13.7 % Europe348.1."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Internet in 2035 Vint Cerf May 2008

2 2 Regional Internet Statistics - 2008 RegionInternet Population % penetration Asia510.5 Mil.13.7 % Europe348.1 Mil.43.4 % North Am.238.0 Mil.71.1% LATAM/C126.2 Mil.22.2 % Mid-East 33.5 Mil.17.4 % Oceania 19.2 Mil.57.1 % Africa 44.4 Mil. 4.7 % TOTAL1,320 Mil.20.0 %

3 3 Population Projections longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

4 4 Projections - World Population

5 5 Population Projections - World

6 6 Population projections - Europe

7 7 Population Projection - Asia

8 8 Projections 2035 Global Warming and oil/water shortages - serious consequences population demographics - coastal areas flooding Water shortages - water tankers Desalinization - side effects from salt?? IT to substitute for transportation? (virtual meetings) IT to minimize transportation (efficient scheduling) Energy production/consumption (IT a big consumer) Nuclear vs Ethanol, Wind, Solar, Geo-thermal

9 9 Internet Projections - 2035 Internet at age 52 (b. 1983) World Population - 8.12 Billion Internet Penetration - 70% (world average) Note: >100% in developed countries Device Penetration - 60 Billion (O(10) devices/person) IPv6 only (IPv4 may lurk in dark corridors)

10 10 Internet - Global Statistics 2035 (approx. 6 Billion Broadband Terminations plus 10 B mobiles and >12 Billion PCs) 10 Billion Hosts (Wikipedia 2035) 5.7 Billion Users (Wikipedia 2035) 542 Million Hosts (ISC Jan 2008) 1,320 Million Users (, December 30,2007)

11 11 Information Ecology Wired and Wireless Internet Infrastructure Online business infrastructure –Intra-/Inter-corporate and government-business transactions –Cloud Computing (Virtualization and Computational Mobility) –Collaboration in virtual environments –Seamless joining of real and virtual environments Convergence of digital objects and processes (discovery and rendezvous) Statewide (National?) Databases –INSTEDD anecdote –Statistical data mining for planning and projections

12 12 Commercial Ecology - 2035 Population demographics (US aging population, ethnic diversity) Competition with India, China, Europe US GDP about 50% or less than Asia? Production rate of scientists, engineers - 10% or less? a)What are the REAL numbers? b)We arent going to beat them on the numbers.

13 13 Physical Infrastructure Energy and Water ecology Minimization, re-utilization, local production Information and Transportation Trade-offs, Real-Time optimizations Smart Road Systems (pilotless cars?) Serious electric trains? (TGV, Shinkansen)

14 14 Socio-Economic Effects of Internet - 2035 Internet transports and display print, video, audio media Internet group interaction - political actions, polling, marketplaces Information Consumers are the Producers –Blogging, YouTube/Google Video, Personal Web Pages, wisdom of crowds Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia) - data mining mass information Social Networking (Linked in, My Space, Facebook, Orkut…) - Robot representatives Gameplaying (Second Life, World of Warcraft…) - holographics New Business Models –eBay, Amazon, Dell, Google, Yahoo!,MSN, AOL, iTunes, VOIP… –Paper publication limited to special editions, online is the norm

15 15 IPTV Streaming and Downloading –iPOD and vPOD behaviors? Mixing of all media as IP packets Ancillary information access –Downloaded texts, programs, videos, audio, captions –Advertising material Screen Control (icons, widgets) Multiple streams to multiple displays (beauty of packet switching) Online interaction while viewing –Group commentary –Advertising and product information

16 16 Mobility and Mobiles - 2035 10 Billion Mobiles and counting (85% Internet enabled) Text/Web Access Payment systems Remote control of services and devices Innovative interfaces - Note I/O discovery, voice, haptics Navigation systems –GPS, Galileo?, Mobile Tower triangulation, Bldg Announcements Geo-location based services

17 17 Internet-enabled Devices

18 18 Internet-enabled Devices Programmable – Java, Python, etc. Examples: WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board! Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales) Automobiles Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödingers wine bottle) Internet-enabled socks (clothing) Universal Remote Controls Sensor Networks RFID trackers (luggage, keys, wheres my stuff?)

19 19 Challenges of the Digital Age Intellectual property treatment –Digital material is easy to copy and distribute Semantic Web Complex objects that can only be rendered via computer –3D interactive objects –Complex spreadsheets –Interactive environments BIT ROT! –Preserving interpretive programs (Windows 3000 and PPT 1997) –And the operating systems that run them –And the hardware that run the operating systems –For thousands of years!!

20 20 InterPlaNetary Internet

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25 25 Interplanetary Internet:InterPlaNet (IPN) Planetary internets Interplanetary Gateways Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture(RFC 4838) –Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP) –Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050) Delayed Binding of Identifiers Email-like behavior Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols –Tactical Mobile applications –Civilian Mobile applications –Deep Impact Testing 2008 –Space Station Testing 2009 –Mars Science Station 2035 –Planetary orbiters –Atmospheric floaters –Ground sensor networks

26 26 End-to-end information flow across the solar system Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times Integrated communications and navigation services

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