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Global Climate Stress and Water Security

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1 Global Climate Stress and Water Security
U.S.-South Asia Leader Engagement Program “Charting the Water Future of South Asia” UZBEKISTAN Global Climate Stress and Water Security 30 April 2013 Sherri Goodman SVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of CNA Executive Director CNA Military Advisory Board Thanks and introduction Having spent most of my life focused on security, I believe that the challenges that we will face will all derive from the two observable phenomena shown here.

2 3 minutes with your Head of State …
Your Challenge 3 minutes with your Head of State … … What are the three most critical issues? … What is the most pressing issue? In the spirit of the Kennedy school in preparing policy makers, I want this to be an interactive session, so I am going to give you a little homework up front to encourage your discussion. At the end of my presentation I hope you will be able to complete the challenge on the slide. What would you tell your head of state if you had just three minutes to brief him/her on this issue of water and cliamte. … What is your recommended course of action? … Why?

3 National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2030 Food, Water, Energy Nexus “Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others.” Example -- South Asia Impacts from climate change, including water stress, in addition to low economic growth, rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s youth bulges are large—similar in size to those found in many African countries—and when combined with slow-growing economies portend increased social instability. Let me begin by laying out the assessment of the US intelligence community. If you haven’t had a chance to review this I recommend that you do. It is in your reading assignments. The National Intelligence Communities Global Trends link water energy and food. Challenges in any one finite resource will affect the others. Although the NIC did not focus on the South Easy Asia, as you can see on the slide, global trends did identify climate change and water stress as particularly troublesome in south Asia.

4 What are the population projections in your country?
Challenges of Our Time - Population 50% more people in next 40 Years 80% of peak in next 30 years Nearly all in developing nations 25% More Food 40% Fresh Water 50% More Infrastructure Energy NIC Global Trends 2030 Having spent most of my life focused on security, I believe that the challenges that we will face will all derive from the two observable phenomena the first is population. The population will nearly double in the next century. While most predict it will level off at between 9 and 12 Billion because that is what the earth can sustain. Finding that equilibrium will be challenging especially since most of that growth will be in developing nations. The population will increase by 3 billion more people over the next several decades. 50% growth. Another way to say it is that more people will be born in this century than in all of the previous history of man! The demand for every resource will increase and it will not be uniform across the globe. As you can see, where resources have been plentiful, in the industrialized countries, population growth is small, but in the developing countries where resources or at least the infrastructure to efficiently distribute resources are challenged. To properly sustain this larger population we will need more food, more fresh water, and more infrastructure (housing, energy, clothing, ect) (Click) The NIC’s Global Trends 2030 predicts that in 15 years the world will need to produce 25% more food, use 40% more fresh water and need 50% more energy. This is a combination of population growth and a global rise of middle class. Science has positioned us to meet many of these increased demands… Bio engineering of foods and improved agricultural techniques available for better crop yields. Hydro engineering has made it so we can move water great distances to where it is needed for people and food production. Building more efficient machinery that uses less energy. Mega cities that build efficiencies into societites. The problem is that the science is not even distributed around the world and the areas to have the highest predicted population growth are many of the area where science has not been applied Slide What are the population projections in your country?

5 Challenges of Our Time – Climate Stress
2-4 degrees C rise over next 50 years We never have 100% certainty. If you wait until you have 100% certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That’s something we know. GEN Sullivan Sea level rise 1-3 meters Changed Weather Patterns (Drought) Extreme Weather Storms/flooding The second great challenge is climate change. While most scientists now agree that humans are contributing to climate there is less agreement about if we can do anything about it, when that might happen and what will be the eventual rise and effect. It is scientifically indisputable that the planet is warming. How much it will warm is the subject of modeling and much debate, but conservative estimates are at least 2-4 degrees over the next several decades. It is also indisputable that a warmer planet will have consequences – some we are already witnessing. (Click) The Sea level will rise, there will be more hotter days and drought and a higher temperature means more evaporation more water in the air…more energy in those water molecules and as a result more powerful storms and rain. I will drill down into each of these outcomes and see what might be the consequences. We have a tendency to focus on what will happen in our country, but I challenge you to think about how your country will be impacted by climate changes in others. Slide How might the security of your country be affected by climate changes in other nations?

6 CNA National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007) Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges CNA was one of the first to publish on the security threat associated with climate change. Scores of DC think tanks have now followed suit. These are the most striking findings from that report. It is available at our website. The report is widely cited by scholars and policy practitioners. Does your country include climate change as part of its National Security Strategy

7 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
The World National Security and the Threat of Climate Change A recent study by ASP (the American Security Project) found that much of the world now views climate change as a threat to national security. As indicated on the map Green -- Climate Change is a National Security Threat 110 out of 155* - 71% of countries Yellow Climate Change as an Environmental Concern 32/155* - 21% of countries Red -- Climate Change is Not a Defined Concern 13/155* - 8% of countries Grey -- No Information Available 41/ % of countries *for which information is available “South Asia South Asian countries as a whole clearly see climate change as a threat to their national security, with the notable exception of the largest country, India. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and others have detailed strongly worded statements about the threats of climate change. They express it most commonly through threats to their own internal security. However, perhaps because of their historical leadership of the non-aligned movement, the Indian government sees climate change through the prism of UN negotiations. Consequently, any expression of ‘securitization’ of climate change is a threat to move the issue from the UN General Assembly to the Security Council. Bangladesh, long thought of as ‘ground zero’ for climate change, states it best by saying “Climate change-induced food insecurity, the uprooting of populations and related adversity threatened international peace and security. Sea-level rise was another concern for Bangladesh, as it could displace 30 to 50 million people from the country’s coastal belts by 2050.” “ American Security Project (Preliminary 2013) The Global Security Defense Index on Climate Change:

8 Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis
National Research Council Climate Study (2012) Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis,” commissioned by the CIA, has been released, and contains a wealth of information and recommendations – far to great to cover in 30 minutes. Accordingly I leave most of the analysis for you to read, but wanted to highlight some of the report’s conclusions and recommendations. Slide

9 NRC Findings: Expect to be surprised
…prudent for security analysts to expect climate surprises in the coming decade, including: More single events that were considered rare Simultaneous or sequential conjunctions of events will stress response capacity Shocks to globally integrated systems (e.g., food supply, strategic commodities, public health) Impacts occurring far from triggering events National Research Council study on Climate and Social Stress The committee found Surprises are likely to intersect climate events and social circumstances Interactions should become more serious and more frequent The will be more single events that were once considered rare They will be Simultaneous or sequential and stress response capacity The events will shocks to globally integrated systems (e.g., food supply, strategic commodities, public health) Impacts occurring far from triggering events We saw some of this two years ago when drought in China and droughts and fire in Russia stop international wheat shipments and spiked food prices in the Middle East. The ensuing riots were likely the trigger to the overthrow of several government during the Arab spring across north Africa. Slide

10 Climate and Sea Level Rise
1-3 meters Salt water intrusion, loss of agriculture Salt water intrusion on underground aquifers Costal and inland flooding Loss of low lying islands/land Food Fresh Water Infrastructure Energy Glacial melting, the melting of ice cover in Greenland and Antarctica and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise . Rising seal level will cause erosion and Salt water intrusion that will radically change the ability to use land. Fresh water delta’s and marshes will become brackish. They will no longer be able to provide potable water for drinking or agriculture If the sea level rises as predicted by IPCC, an area of about 532 square km in the Krishna-Godavari deltas of East India, which is 0.6m above sea level. would be permanently submerged. Another 1233 square km would become a salt water marsh, affecting the croplands, aquaculture and over 499 square km of plantations. This area is the rice bowl of India. Flooding or loss of farming ability will threaten the survival of 1.29 million people living in 282 coastal villages along the East coast of India. Similarly in Africa, the Nile river delta will have thousands of hectares of farmland and pastures no longer able to produce. Impacting 4 million Egyptians and inundating cities like Alexandria and even Ciaro, hundreds of kilometers up river. Dhaka Bangladesh has over 10 million people and an average elevation of only 4 meters above sea level. As shown in the map, over 100 million Bengalis live within 6 meters of the sea. The rising sea level will affect costal cities throughout the South Asia Slide How much food production capacity will be lost? Where will displaced population go?

11 Climate and Less Water Changed Weather Patterns (Drought) Food
Rice paddies in India Wild fire closes airport Katmandu, Nepal, Feb. 7, 2012 Vyksa, Russia, 2010 India, 2012 Less water for crops – higher food prices/food shortages Bigger drain on aquifers – more susceptible to salting Less fresh water for humans/livestock Less cooling capacity of power plants – less energy Increase in fires We have seen the impacts of drought here in the US with increased food costs and more fires But it is happening around the world. Wild fire in Katmandu Nepal closed the airport earlier this year. Similarly, in 2010, fires in Russia accompanied one of the most server droughts on record that caused Russia to cease exporting wheat which in turn can be linked to higher food prices in Near East which caused food riots which may have been a trigger for the Arab Spring In the India, in July of 2012, low reservoir level caused reduced hydro power, extreme temperatures and high energy demand exceeded capacity and caused a blackout that affected 24 states and 600 million people (9% of the worlds population) Slide Food Fresh Water Infrastructure Energy

12 Global Trends 2030 Water Scarcity
This slide shows the global trend 2030 assessment of water scarcity. Note that the majority of the darker regions are in the Middle East and South Asia area. What are scarcity predictions for your country? Are you prepared? What will be your impact from scarcity in ME?

13 Climate and Extreme Weather
Storms/flooding Loss of life Human displacement Spread of disease Loss of food crops Destruction of infrastructure Loss of energy production capacity Pakistan Aug 2010 Food Fresh Water Infrastructure Energy Regardless of whether it is tornadoes, hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, we are all familiar with the impact of storms Most of us here in the US are familiar with tropical storm Sandy that ravaged the East Coast and took the lives of 100 people and cost 100’s of billions of dollars in damage. Although the damage to property was great, Sandy pales in comparison to cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar in 2008 and killed 130,000 Or the flooding in Pakistan which killed 1800 in 2010 and 400 more in 2012 and affected more than 2.8 Million people. Pakistan commissioner said “the people are the victims of three consecutive years of devastating monsoon floods which have destroyed livelihoods and left behind lingering shortages of food and hunger. Slide How can you be prepared better? What will be the impact of burgeoning population? 13

14 Climate Stress and Security Outcome Model
Vulnerability Climate Conditions Climate Event Exposure Security Outcome Other Environmental Conditions Susceptibility To Harm So what does that all mean to security? This model, taken from Climate and Social Stress, a product of the National Research Council, shows the links between climate events and national security outcomes. It highlights the concept of vulnerability. The shaded area corresponds to the event-exposure - vulnerability model of the IPCC. Many of the linkages shown here involve causation in both directions, but some are more important than others. So if we try of apply this model to the Near East South Asia, one can quickly see that it will not apply uniformly across the area. More over there are people in this room with a great deal more regional expertise than I have. So to help us prompt some discussion of how climate change might affect the region… I want to look at three broad areas I will draw in the work of the 2006 MAB, which is consistent with the near term climate induced challenges identified in global trends Then I want to focus on a few examples. And I will leave you some questions to discuss… So I can learn from you as well. Socioeconomic & Political Conditions Coping Response & Recovery Climate and Social Stress, 2012

15 Exposure Exposure of people and “valued things” (infrastructure) is linked to vulnerability Exposure mediated by Resilience Society - governance Infrastructure Globalized systems that support societies To understand how climate change may create security concerns, it is essential to understand How exposed societies are to climate. This includes direct and indirect effects. It is not only people but the things needed by the people. -- power, food, shelter, transportation. Most of us here in the US are familiar with tropical storm Sandy that ravaged the East Coast and took the lives of 100 people and cost 100’s of billions of dollars in damage. Although the damage to property was great, Sandy pales in comparison to cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar in 2008 and killed 130,000 and swept away entire cities. Or the flooding in Pakistan which killed 1800 in 2010 and 400 more in 2012 and affected more than 2.8 Million people. Pakistan commissioner said “the people are the victims of three consecutive years of devastating monsoon floods which have destroyed livelihoods and left behind lingering shortages of food and hunger. These are the exposures that must be understood. Slide How dependent is your nation on globalized systems and will they be available or not? 15

16 Demand for response more common in future
Susceptibility and Coping/resilience To understand risk we must increase understanding of vulnerability including: Susceptibility to harm Potential for coping, response and recovery Prudent to expect climate events to exceed local capacity and compel international response Demand for response more common in future The NAS committee also found that To understand how climate change may create security concerns it is essential to understand adaptation and changes in vulnerability to climate events and their consequences in places and systems of concern, including susceptibility to harm and the potential for effective coping, response, and recovery. This understanding must be integrated with understanding of changes in the likelihoods of occurrence of climate events. How susceptible is your population? What investments should be made in disaster risk reduction and in response capability? 16

17 Regional Impacts: Middle East
Water security will be threatened – two-thirds of the Arab world already depends on water sources external to their borders Loss of food and water security will increase pressure to emigrate across borders I want to draw your attention to two regions that may have direct impact on your countries. The first is the Middle East. The Middle East has been known for two resources: oil, for its abundance, and water, for its scarcity. The climate models widely predict that the Middle East will experience significant drying over the coming century. As the water security situation worsens, the reaction in Middle Eastern governments will determine its future- they could use the water stress as a source of cooperation to solve their common problems, or they could resort to violence to protect their dwindling water supplies. Which way it goes is anyone’s guess, but our forces must be prepared to deal with the worst options. Question? How will food shortages in Egypt and other middle east countries affect new democracies?

18 Regional Impacts: Asia
Almost 40 percent of South Asia’s 2 billion people live within 100 miles of the coast Inundation of coastal areas, with loss of settled areas and agricultural land Threats to water including loss of glacier fed rivers will increase cross border tensions We have already talked about the impact of sea level rise and the loss of land and agricultural productivity, but like the Middle East, South Asia will have significant periods of drought followed by killer monsoons. It will be a one-two punch. Additionally, climate change is already making the Himalayan glaciers recede. A significant portion of the watershed traversing from China into India, the Kashmiri, and Pakistan will be lost as the glaciers continue to recede. Water will be a source of increased tension on the region. How will the world respond when China, India and Pakistan, three nuclear armed countries argue over water rights?

19 Melting Glaciers In a study published in Nature, scientists assembled new datasets from Earth-observing satellites and found that glaciers in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region (HKKH) lost 12 gigatonnes per year over the period 2003–08, much faster than previously reported. Glacial runoff, or lack thereof, has a direct effect on the nearby Indus and Ganges River basins and is very important for lower-lying regions where there is a very large human population. The changes in mass of the glaciers contributed between 2% and 3.5% of the total discharge into these rivers, while in the Upper Indus basin the contribution was almost 10% of the annual river discharge. Progressive retreat of the Gangotri Himalayan glacier

20 Pakistan: Challenges Socio-economic and political conditions
Prominent agricultural sector (23% of GDP, 44% of labor force, 65% of foreign exchange earnings) Sharp water allocation tradeoffs Irrigation vs. power generation Irrigation across provinces Internally fragile society -- Nuclear Armed Climate Challenges Reduction of Indus river flows resulting from loss of the Karakoram glaciers and up stream irrigation Increasing ambient temperatures affecting agricultural product cycles Increased precipitation variability causing drought in some areas and devastating floods in others Sustained internal protest already evident over repeated power outages Let me take just a few minutes and look at two case studies in south Asia. Pakistan and Bangladesh First Pakistan Heavily dependent on agriculture… Divisive water allocation rules: Favoring irrigation over power generation Favoring Punjab over Sind Based on unrealistically high estimates of availability First Pakistan is not in the most stable part of the world, but it also has some interesting geographic features as you can see on the map… including It is mostly high and arid, but has significant low lying areas subject to monsoon flooding – where most of the people live, and 100 million people dependent on fresh water that comes cross boarder from India and China.

21 Bangladesh: Challenges
Socio-economic and political conditions million people, eighth most populous One of most densely populated GDP drivers are service and agriculture “Among Bangladesh’s most significant obstacles to growth are poor governance and weak public institutions.” World Bank Climate challenges Ranks first as the most vulnerable nation to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades Rainfall, rising sea levels, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase Sea level and extreme weather will affect agriculture, water and food security, human health and shelter Rising sea level expected to create more than 20 million refugees Perhaps on of the most vulnerable country to climate change is Bangladesh. A large portion of Bangladesh’s land area lies less than 1 M above sea level, making the country among the most vulnerable to increase in sea level. According to the IPCC it will lose 17 to 20 per cent of land mass by 2050. This will lose in millions of homes and substantial tracts of cultivation land to the sea. It will drive food insecurity. The majority of the 160 million people live in Bangladesh live in low lying area along major river basins and close to sea level. Should sea level rise as little as one meter over 20 million Bengalis will loose their homes or their livelihoods and be forced to migrate. While many will try to stay in Bangladesh the country is small and will simply not be able sustain a large internally displaced population. Many will try to go to India, which has already erected a fence to keep Bengalis out. It is already one of the deadliest borders with patrol routinely shooting migrants who approach the fence. This is already a security concern. I am sure that Bangledesh is one of PACOMs greatest area of concern.

22 PACOM: Climate Change is Biggest Long Term Concern
“Significant upheaval related to the warming planet is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about” Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III Commander US Forces Pacific "We have interjected into our multilateral dialogue - even with China and India - the imperative to kind of get military capabilities aligned [for] when the effects of climate change start to impact these massive populations," “If it goes bad, you could have hundreds of thousands or millions of people displaced and then security will start to crumble pretty quickly." Admiral Locklear is the head to all the forces in the Pacific His greatest long tern concern is climate change. He worries that it may cripple the security environment. The US military, he said, is beginning to reach out to other armed forces in the region about the issue. Admiral Samuel Locklear, Mar 2013

23 PACOM: Partners must build capabilities
In the Indo-Asia Pacific region, as we go from about 7 billion people in the world to 9 or 10 by the century, about 70 percent of them are going to live in this part of the world. About 80 percent of them today live within about 200 miles of the coast, and that trend is increasing… Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III in Bengladesh If you go to USAID and you ask the numbers for my PACOM AOR how many people died due to natural disasters from 2008 to 2012, it was about 280, Now, they weren’t all climate change or weather-related, but a lot of them were due to that. About 800,000 people were displaced and there was about $500 billion of lost productivity. So when I look and I think about our planning and I think about what I have to do with allies and partners and I look long-term, it’s important that the countries in this region build the capabilities into their infrastructure to be able to deal with the types of things that Admiral Locklear is the head to all the forces in the Pacific His greatest long tern concern is climate change. He worries that it may cripple the security environment. The US military, he said, is beginning to reach out to other armed forces in the region about the issue. Admiral Samuel Locklear, April 2013

24 President Obama, 2013 Inaugural Address
“We…still believe that our obligations … are not just to ourselves, but to all posterity.  We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. ” I leave you with this thought taken from President Obama’s Second Inaugural address, delivered earlier this year . President Obama, Jan 2013

25 3 Minutes with your Head of State …
Your Challenge 3 Minutes with your Head of State … … What are the three most critical issues? … What is the most pressing issue? Who would like to go first? … What is your recommended course of action? … Why

26 Sherri Goodman SVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of CNA Executive Director CNA Military Advisory Board Open for discussion

27 BACK UP Open for discussion

28 QDR and Threat of Climate Change
Climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world Extreme weather events may lead to increased demand for defense support of civil authorities…within the U.S. and abroad Climate change is becoming more mainstream in security documents As noted in the US DOD QDR Climate change can uproot communities -- Cause humanitarian crisis -- And make it likely that military forces will have to respond Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, Chairman of the Senate Standing Committee on Defence, affirmed that the “Senate Standing Committee on Defence would include climate change as a threat in [the forthcoming] National Security Strategy.” Pakistan is focused on the role of climate change in exacerbating water security issues, including flooding and scarcity (with water high on the “dispute” list with India), particularly given that roughly “60 percent of Pakistan's] water comes from glacial melt Slide 2010 QDR

29 Regional Impacts: Africa
Climate change will exacerbate: weakened governance economic collapse human migrations potential conflicts northern spread of disease Stability operations and humanitarian missions could increase for U.S. The first area is Africa. The Near East Asia stretches across the Northern nations of Africa, and although these areas will be impacted by climate, Sub Saharan Africa is expected to see the largest impact of climate and extreme weather. In sub-Saharan Africa, that inability of many of those affected nation’s weaker governments to reduce the vulnerabilities of their populations cause three factors that will directly affect the near east 1. There is a high chance of economic collapse of economies in those regions, critical food and water shortages and accompanying loss of governance such as we have already seen in Somalia, Darfur and parts of Mali. 2. These failed states will have mass migration of populations. Global trends 2030 identified human migration as one of the largest challenges in the coming decades. Research has shown that people will preferentially migrate within their own continent, so it should be expected that North East Asia and the Middle East will be inundated with permanent or transient migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. 3. Disease will also spread, not only because of the human borne pathogens but also the climate will cause insects to live longer in areas where without a warming climate they could not survive long enough to gestate decease and vector borne illness such as malaria, dengue fever, or west Nile virus will spread to Near East Asia and beyond. Because these issues will worsen, it is likely that our militaries will be called upon to perform more stability operations and humanitarian missions to the region. These missions will detract from training, stress the force, subject our forces to dangerous conditions, and have a negative effect on readiness, particularly as these types of situations will begin to start happening in similar time frames. Question How will the we choose which missions to take? How many humanitarian missions will we be able to handle at the same time? Slide

30 Arctic Challenges and Opportunities
Increased maritime shipping – both intra Arctic and trans Arctic Improved access to energy, mineral, fisheries resources Other strategic considerations Loss of permafrost Arctic as an area for Naval Operations (SAR) Risk of accelerated environmental degradation (spills, pollution) Potential dispute over resources Changes to the livelihood/sustainment of indigenous peoples 30

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