Presentation on theme: "Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities"— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert BonniciDepartment of PhysicsErin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010
2Overview Recent Work Timeline MedCLIVAR Workshop The Models Current ProjectsCapacity Building1st Climate Summer SchoolModels’ PerformanceMCT plans
3Timeline 2007 2009 2008 2010 MedCLIVAR Workshop 1 PRECIS 1.8.2 update RegCM4 Workshop2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student2007PRECIS installation & testingPRECIS Sulfate ResearchWRF installation200920082010MedCLIVAR Workshop 22007Acquisition of PRECIS license by Prof. Sammut2008August:Dr. Aquilina attends PRECIS Workshop (training on PRECIS)September:Student installed PRECIS on a single workstationDr. Aquilina attends an ESF-MedCLIVAR Summer School and WorkshopOctober:Testing of PRECIS2009April:PRECIS fully operational3 Undergraduate Dissertations2010February:Installation of PRECIS & RegCM3 on second workstationJune:Dr. Aquilina attends RegCM4 WorkshopInstallation & testing of PRECIS on clusterUpdate to PRECIS on the 2 workstationsJuly:First Climate Summer SchoolStart of Further Studies on Chemistry of PRECIS modelFoundation of MCTPRECIS operational on cluster (2 separate nodes)RegCM4 & WRF installation on clusterNCL operational on all computing facilitiesMr. Ciarlo` and Dr. Aquilina attend ESF- MedCLIVAR WorkshopWRF operational on clusterStart of 2 Undergraduate 1 Masters DissertationNovember:PRECIS, WRF fine, RegCM4 in testing phaseRegCM4 testingPRECIS WorkshopMCTPRECIS operational;3 undergraduate studentsPRECIS update1st Climate Summer SchoolPRECIS license
5PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the:UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA),UK Department for International Development (DFID),UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), andthe Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.mention GCM v RCMDeveloped by UK Met OfficeFor developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenarios.Scenarios are needed for the National Communications
6PRECIS mention GCM v RCM Providing REgional Climate Impact Studies Developed by UK Met Office25km and 12.5km (still not released) resolutionRuns on up to 16 threads (OpenMP)Current version: 1.9.2
7PRECISmention that a climate model, in order to give us detailed information needs to be able to process all the complex processes Air/Land/GCM v RCM
8RegCM4 PRECIS RegCM4 License-based Community-based MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs Different SchemesPlanetary Boundary LayerRadiationPrecipitationChemistry model (Sulfate)RegCM4Community-basedBATS & CLM LSMsDifferent SchemesPlanetary Boundary LayerRadiationPrecipitationChemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon)CloudsOcean FluxPressure Gradient ForceLake modelProject started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCARBuilt on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4)Regional Climate ModelCurrently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre forTheoretical Physics60km till 10km resolutionRuns on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max)Current version: 4.0
9Malta in Climate Models RegCM4Malta in Climate ModelsProject started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCARBuilt on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4)Regional Climate ModelCurrently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre forTheoretical Physics60km till 10km resolutionRuns on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max)Current version: 4.0
10WRFNumerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system.A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility.WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km.Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.Project started in 1998Weather Research and ForecastingNumerical Weather Prediction ModelDeveloped by NCAR10km till 1km resolutionRuns with OpenMPI and CUDACurrent version: 3.2.1
11WRF Project started in 1998 Weather Research and Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction ModelDeveloped by NCAR10km till 1km resolutionRuns with OpenMPI and CUDACurrent version: 3.2.1
12[Source: National Observatory of Athens] WRFOperational use of WRF[Source: National Observatory of Athens]
13WRF Collaborative research BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects University of Aveiro & University of LisbonBSc (Hons) 3rd year projectsExamples:Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005Temperature extremes in the MediterraneanAttraction between Cities and Cyclones
14Capacity Building 768 Proc. 2 Proc. 4 Proc. Workstations ALBERT PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation)RegCM4 (runs on MPI)WRF installed & in testing4 Proc.
15Models’ Performance Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cellsPRECISComputer 4 (2P): ~39 daysComputer 2 (4P): ~16 daysComputer Cluster (12P): ~11 daysRegCM4Computer Cluster: ~8 daysWRF: in testing phase
16Recent Work PRECIS Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Current Research Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives.Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli)Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia)Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`)Current ResearchEvaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`)Undergraduate Projects 2010/11Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri)Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)
17Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates andpromotes the study of the Mediterranean climateWhy the Mediterranean Basin?Enclosed by 3 major continents.Surrounded almost entirely by mountains.Very unique and sensitive to climate changes.Simulation detailsGCM-HadAM3PPRECIS (v 1.7.1) usedResolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)100 x 100 cells57°N-18°N16°W-46°E
18Solar Radiation at Surface Level PRECIS: ValidationValidation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled dataESRLSolar Radiation at Surface LevelAveragePRECIS
19PRECIS: ValidationValidation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
20PRECIS: Vertical Layers Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde dataSource: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)
21PRECIS: Climate ZonesEvaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zonesTemperatureTotal Precipitation RatePRECISAverageMONITORING STATIONSSource: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
22Future Projections Temperature IS INCREASING Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
23Future Projections Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCHSource: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)
24PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the AtmosphereAverageSource: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
25PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the AtmosphereParameterMax BiasMean BiasMin BiasSurface Temperature1.590.820.05Solar Radiation-6.99-10.45-15.63Thermal Radiation3.771.01-1.37Daily Temperature Range-0.32-1.98-3.52Convective Precipitation-1.48-3.08-5.80Relative Humidity-3.01-5.46-8.38AverageSource: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)
26ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop 23rd-25th September ICTP, TriesteWorkshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.
27PRECIS: Current Research Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.
28Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)Why Australia?Large variety of different climatesComplex island system in the ITCZSimulation details:GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used/Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)174 x 150 cells22°N-49°S83°E-166°E
31Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) MSc using RegCM4Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)NAO-NAO+
341st Climate Summer School 8 Students attendedDay 1: Introduction to Meteorology IDay 2: Introduction to Meteorology IIDay 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installationDay 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECISDay 5: The PRECIS outputsDay 6: Introduction to NCL2nd Climate Summer SchoolNew Models (RegCM4, WRF)Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV)Mini-Project
35Immediate Plans Gain more experience Climate Research, Different Models, Climate StatisticsEncourage more people to work in the MCTPhysicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians.There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are availablePrepare interested students through new study-units.
36New Study-Units Fundamentals of Meteorology Study AimsScientific understanding of meteorologyPhysics of weather systemsDistinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate dataApplying meteorology to climate researchA Multidisciplinary approach to Climate ResearchStudy AimsScientific understanding of climateOperating climate modelsPost-processingUsing appropriate Statistical methodsHands-on experience to climate researchHopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12
37Long-Term Plans Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research Development of part of the chemical model with ICTPNeeded:Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, ProgrammersAssociated projectsStudying long range transport of pollutantsEvaluate different schemesApply different statistical treatments to climate dataTesting out new code
38International Collaborations Sponsored by:International Council for Science (ICSU)World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCOThe two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine:the predictability of climatethe effect of human activities on climateThese underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC. A multi-disciplinary approach:Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projectsFacilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific disciplineThe WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and modelsIntegrating new observations, research facilities and scientific breakthroughs is essentialThe strategy is for the dual purpose of describing the structure and variability of the climate system
39CORDEX COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework.To produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wideTo use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyondMED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems.Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations)CORDEX WRF-Community: This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.Why MedCORDEX - Strong air-sea interactionstake place in the Mediterranean basin, motivating the use of coupled regional models.Since WRF is a public domain model with a wide community of users it is expected that some other groups will also contribute to CORDEX using WRF. This will require a coordinated WRF-community action in order to avoid overlapping simulations (parameterizations schemes, etc.).