1. Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities
Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici
Department of Physics
Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010

2. Overview Recent Work Timeline MedCLIVAR Workshop The Models
Current Projects
Capacity Building
1st Climate Summer School
Models’ Performance
MCT plans

3. Timeline 2007 2009 2008 2010 MedCLIVAR Workshop 1 PRECIS 1.8.2 update
RegCM4 Workshop
2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student
2007
PRECIS installation & testing
PRECIS Sulfate Research
WRF installation
2009
2008
2010
MedCLIVAR Workshop 2
2007
Acquisition of PRECIS license by Prof. Sammut
2008
August:
Dr. Aquilina attends PRECIS Workshop (training on PRECIS)
September:
Student installed PRECIS on a single workstation
Dr. Aquilina attends an ESF-MedCLIVAR Summer School and Workshop
October:
Testing of PRECIS
2009
April:
PRECIS fully operational
3 Undergraduate Dissertations
2010
February:
Installation of PRECIS & RegCM3 on second workstation
June:
Dr. Aquilina attends RegCM4 Workshop
Installation & testing of PRECIS on cluster
Update to PRECIS on the 2 workstations
July:
First Climate Summer School
Start of Further Studies on Chemistry of PRECIS model
Foundation of MCT
PRECIS operational on cluster (2 separate nodes)
RegCM4 & WRF installation on cluster
NCL operational on all computing facilities
Mr. Ciarlo` and Dr. Aquilina attend ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop
WRF operational on cluster
Start of 2 Undergraduate 1 Masters Dissertation
November:
PRECIS, WRF fine, RegCM4 in testing phase
RegCM4 testing
PRECIS Workshop
MCT
PRECIS operational;
3 undergraduate students
PRECIS update
1st Climate Summer School
PRECIS license

4. Introduction to the Models

5. PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies
PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the:
UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA),
UK Department for International Development (DFID),
UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and
the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.
To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.
The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.
These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.
mention GCM v RCM
Developed by UK Met Office
For developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenarios.
Scenarios are needed for the National Communications

6. PRECIS mention GCM v RCM Providing REgional Climate Impact Studies
Developed by UK Met Office
25km and 12.5km (still not released) resolution
Runs on up to 16 threads (OpenMP)
Current version: 1.9.2

7. PRECIS
mention that a climate model, in order to give us detailed information needs to be able to process all the complex processes Air/Land/
GCM v RCM

8. RegCM4 PRECIS RegCM4 License-based Community-based MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs
Different Schemes
Planetary Boundary Layer
Radiation
Precipitation
Chemistry model (Sulfate)
RegCM4
Community-based
BATS & CLM LSMs
Different Schemes
Planetary Boundary Layer
Radiation
Precipitation
Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon)
Clouds
Ocean Flux
Pressure Gradient Force
Lake model
Project started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCAR
Built on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4)
Regional Climate Model
Currently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre for
Theoretical Physics
60km till 10km resolution
Runs on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max)
Current version: 4.0

9. Malta in Climate Models
RegCM4
Malta in Climate Models
Project started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCAR
Built on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4)
Regional Climate Model
Currently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre for
Theoretical Physics
60km till 10km resolution
Runs on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max)
Current version: 4.0

10. WRF
Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.
It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system.
A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility.
WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km.
Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.
Project started in 1998
Weather Research and Forecasting
Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Developed by NCAR
10km till 1km resolution
Runs with OpenMPI and CUDA
Current version: 3.2.1

11. WRF Project started in 1998 Weather Research and Forecasting
Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Developed by NCAR
10km till 1km resolution
Runs with OpenMPI and CUDA
Current version: 3.2.1

12. [Source: National Observatory of Athens]
WRF
Operational use of WRF
[Source: National Observatory of Athens]

13. WRF Collaborative research BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects
University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon
BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects
Examples:
Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005
Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean
Attraction between Cities and Cyclones

14. Capacity Building 768 Proc. 2 Proc. 4 Proc. Workstations ALBERT
PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation)
RegCM4 (runs on MPI)
WRF installed & in testing
4 Proc.

15. Models’ Performance Considering a 30 year simulation,
Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells
PRECIS
Computer 4 (2P): ~39 days
Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days
Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days
RegCM4
Computer Cluster: ~8 days
WRF: in testing phase

16. Recent Work PRECIS Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Current Research
Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives.
Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli)
Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia)
Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`)
Current Research
Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`)
Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri)
Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)

17. Undergraduate Projects 2009/10
Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates and
promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate
Why the Mediterranean Basin?
Enclosed by 3 major continents.
Surrounded almost entirely by mountains.
Very unique and sensitive to climate changes.
Simulation details
GCM-HadAM3P
PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used
Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
100 x 100 cells
57°N-18°N
16°W-46°E

18. Solar Radiation at Surface Level
PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data
ESRL
Solar Radiation at Surface Level
Average
PRECIS

19. PRECIS: Validation
Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data

20. PRECIS: Vertical Layers
Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde data
Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)

21. PRECIS: Climate Zones
Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones
Temperature
Total Precipitation Rate
PRECIS
Average
MONITORING STATIONS
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

22. Future Projections Temperature IS INCREASING
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

23. Future Projections Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING
Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH
Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

24. PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere
Average
Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

25. PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol
Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere
Parameter
Max Bias
Mean Bias
Min Bias
Surface Temperature
1.59
0.82
0.05
Solar Radiation
-6.99
-10.45
-15.63
Thermal Radiation
3.77
1.01
-1.37
Daily Temperature Range
-0.32
-1.98
-3.52
Convective Precipitation
-1.48
-3.08
-5.80
Relative Humidity
-3.01
-5.46
-8.38
Average
Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

26. ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop
23rd-25th September ICTP, Trieste
Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.

27. PRECIS: Current Research
Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.

28. Undergraduate Projects 2010/11
Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)
Why Australia?
Large variety of different climates
Complex island system in the ITCZ
Simulation details:
GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5
PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used /
Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)
174 x 150 cells
22°N-49°S
83°E-166°E

29. LSM Project PRECIS 1.7.1 MOSES I PRECIS 1.9.1 MOSES 2.2
Sulfate Aitken mode

30. ENSO Project

31. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
MSc using RegCM4
Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.
Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
NAO-
NAO+

32. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

33. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

34. 1st Climate Summer School
8 Students attended
Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I
Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II
Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation
Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS
Day 5: The PRECIS outputs
Day 6: Introduction to NCL
2nd Climate Summer School
New Models (RegCM4, WRF)
Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV)
Mini-Project

35. Immediate Plans Gain more experience
Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics
Encourage more people to work in the MCT
Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians.
There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are available
Prepare interested students through new study-units.

36. New Study-Units Fundamentals of Meteorology
Study Aims
Scientific understanding of meteorology
Physics of weather systems
Distinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate data
Applying meteorology to climate research
A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate Research
Study Aims
Scientific understanding of climate
Operating climate models
Post-processing
Using appropriate Statistical methods
Hands-on experience to climate research
Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12

37. Long-Term Plans Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research
Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP
Needed:
Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers
Associated projects
Studying long range transport of pollutants
Evaluate different schemes
Apply different statistical treatments to climate data
Testing out new code

38. International Collaborations
Sponsored by:
International Council for Science (ICSU)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO
The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine:
the predictability of climate
the effect of human activities on climate
These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC. 
A multi-disciplinary approach:
Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects
Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline
The WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models
Integrating new observations, research facilities and scientific breakthroughs is essential
The strategy is for the dual purpose of describing the structure and variability of the climate system

39. CORDEX COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment
CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework.
To produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wide
To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyond
MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems.
Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations)
CORDEX WRF-Community: This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.
Why MedCORDEX - Strong air-sea interactions
take place in the Mediterranean basin, motivating the use of coupled regional models.
Since WRF is a public domain model with a wide community of users it is expected that some other groups will also contribute to CORDEX using WRF. This will require a coordinated WRF-community action in order to avoid overlapping simulations (parameterizations schemes, etc.).

40. CORDEX

41. The MCT on the Web UoM-Physics Webpage: Facebook:
Facebook:

42. Acknowledgements Nick Archer Charles V Sammut Louis Zammit Mangion
Pierre-Sandre Farrugia
Denis Cutajar
Adam Gauci
Alessio Magro
Shawn Cassar
Simon Tucker
Chloe Morrell
David Hein
David Hassell
Marcus Thatcher
Jack Katzfey
John McGregor
Graziano Giuliani
Stefano Cozzini
Mary Hailey Dennis Shea

43. Thank You MALTA CLIMATE TEAMW: E: T: