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Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4 th November 2010

2 Overview Timeline The Models Capacity Building Models Performance Recent Work MedCLIVAR Workshop Current Projects 1 st Climate Summer School MCT plans 2

3 Timeline PRECIS license MedCLIVAR Workshop 1 PRECIS update PRECIS update 1st Climate Summer School 2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student RegCM4 testing WRF installation MedCLIVAR Workshop 2 PRECIS Workshop PRECIS installation & testing RegCM4 Workshop PRECIS operational; 3 undergraduate students PRECIS Sulfate Research MCT 3

4 Introduction to the Models 4

5 PRECIS PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the: o UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), o UK Department for International Development (DFID), o UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) o United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and o the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system. To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions. The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries. These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies. 5

6 PRECIS 6

7 PRECIS 7

8 RegCM4 RegCM4 Community-based BATS & CLM LSMs Different Schemes o Planetary Boundary Layer o Radiation o Precipitation o Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon) o Clouds o Ocean Flux o Pressure Gradient Force Lake model PRECIS License-based MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs Different Schemes o Planetary Boundary Layer o Radiation o Precipitation o Chemistry model (Sulfate) 8

9 RegCM4 Malta in Climate Models 9

10 WRF WRF Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km. Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology. 10

11 WRF 11

12 WRF [Source: National Observatory of Athens] 12

13 WRF Collaborative research o University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects o Examples: Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005 Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean Attraction between Cities and Cyclones 13

14 Capacity Building Workstations 2 Proc. 4 Proc. ALBERT 768 Proc. PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation) RegCM4 (runs on MPI) WRF installed & in testing 14

15 Models Performance Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells PRECIS o Computer 4 (2P): ~ 39 days o Computer 2 (4P): ~ 16 days o Computer Cluster (12P): ~ 11 days RegCM4 o Computer Cluster: ~ 8 days WRF: in testing phase 15

16 Recent Work PRECIS Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 o Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives. Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli) Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia) Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`) Current Research o Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`) Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 o Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri) o Comparative study of PRECISs LSMs (William Healey) 16

17 Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Why the Mediterranean Basin? Enclosed by 3 major continents. Surrounded almost entirely by mountains. Very unique and sensitive to climate changes. Simulation details GCM-HadAM3P PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 100 x 100 cells 57°N-18°N 16°W-46°E Med CLIVAR Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Med iterranean CLI mate VAR iability project) that coordinates and promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate 17

18 PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data ESRL Solar Radiation at Surface Level Average PRECIS 18

19 PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data 19

20 PRECIS: Vertical Layers Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde data 20 Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)

21 PRECIS: Climate Zones Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones Average Temperature Total Precipitation Rate 21 Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

22 Future Projections 22 Temperature IS INCREASING Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

23 Future Projections 23 Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

24 PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere Average 24 Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

25 PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere Average ParameterMax BiasMean BiasMin Bias Surface Temperature Solar Radiation Thermal Radiation Daily Temperature Range Convective Precipitation Relative Humidity Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

26 26 ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop 23 rd -25 th September 2010 ICTP, Trieste Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.

27 PRECIS: Current Research Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change. 27

28 Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 Why Australia? Large variety of different climates Complex island system in the ITCZ Simulation details: GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5 PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used / Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 174 x 150 cells 22°N-49°S 83°E-166°E Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) 28

29 LSM Project Sulfate Aitken mode PRECIS MOSES I PRECIS MOSES

30 ENSO Project 30

31 MSc using RegCM4 Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO+NAO- 31

32 Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 32

33 Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 33

34 1 st Climate Summer School 8 Students attended Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS Day 5: The PRECIS outputs Day 6: Introduction to NCL 2 nd Climate Summer School o New Models (RegCM4, WRF) o Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV) o Mini-Project 34

35 Immediate Plans Gain more experience o Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics Encourage more people to work in the MCT o Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians. o There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are available Prepare interested students through new study- units. 35

36 New Study-Units A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate Research Study Aims Scientific understanding of climate Operating climate models Post-processing Using appropriate Statistical methods Hands-on experience to climate research Fundamentals of Meteorology Study Aims Scientific understanding of meteorology Physics of weather systems Distinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate data Applying meteorology to climate research Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12 36

37 Long-Term Plans Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research o Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP o Needed: Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers Associated projects o Studying long range transport of pollutants o Evaluate different schemes o Apply different statistical treatments to climate data o Testing out new code 37

38 International Collaborations Sponsored by: International Council for Science (ICSU) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine: the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC. A multi-disciplinary approach: Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline The WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models 38

39 CORDEX CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework. To produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wide To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyond MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems. Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations) CORDEX WRF-Community: This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments. CORDEX COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment 39

40 CORDEX 40

41 The MCT on the Web UoM-Physics Webpage: physics/climate_studies Facebook: p.php?gid=

42 Acknowledgements Charles V Sammut Louis Zammit Mangion Pierre-Sandre Farrugia Denis Cutajar Adam Gauci Alessio Magro Shawn Cassar Graziano Giuliani Stefano Cozzini models/regcm3 Mary Hailey Dennis Shea Simon Tucker Chloe Morrell David Hein David Hassell Nick Archer Marcus Thatcher Jack Katzfey John McGregor 42

43 Thank You MALTA CLIMATE TEAM W: E: T:


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