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AGI Using EOP and Space Weather Data for Satellite Operations David A. Vallado and T. S. Kelso Analytical Graphics Inc. Center for Space Standards and.

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Presentation on theme: "AGI Using EOP and Space Weather Data for Satellite Operations David A. Vallado and T. S. Kelso Analytical Graphics Inc. Center for Space Standards and."— Presentation transcript:

1 AGI Using EOP and Space Weather Data for Satellite Operations David A. Vallado and T. S. Kelso Analytical Graphics Inc. Center for Space Standards and Innovation Paper AAS 05-406, Presented at the AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Lake Tahoe CA August 7-11, 2005

2 Pg 2 of 39 AGI Outline Introduction –Definitions –Problem –Objectives –Motivation Analysis –EOP –Space Weather STK Files Summary

3 Pg 3 of 39 AGI Definitions Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) –Assist transformation between Celestial and Terrestrial Coordinate Frames Celestial – GCRF (generic ECI) Terrestrial – ITRF (generic ECEF) – UT1, LOD, x p, y p, AT Space Weather Data –Incoming solar radiation effects the atmosphere Geomagnetic –k p, a p »Eight 3-hourly and daily averages Solar radiation –F 10.7 »Daily values –Affects upper atmospheric temperature and density Large factor in determining atmospheric drag effect on satellite orbits

4 Pg 4 of 39 AGI Problem EOP and space weather data needed to support tasks –Mission Design Fuel budgets Lifetime maneuver / orbit box planning –Real-time Operations Few days into the future Mission planning a few months ahead Anomaly resolution a few months in the past Available data is chaotic at best –Mix of predicted and observed values –Post processing data often takes a month or more –No synchronized update schedule for all parameters Need seamless file of data to accomplish each mission task

5 Pg 5 of 39 AGI Objectives Analyze currently available data Recommend best option for splicing data Discuss setup of data files –Available on CelesTrak website STK compatible

6 Pg 6 of 39 AGI Motivation So What? –With analytical theories (i.e. SGP4), it mattered little TEME example –AFSPC still uses two-line element set data in TEME (never officially defined!) »Time sometimes assumed to be UTC »No polar motion, no ECI/ECEF distinctions SGP4 only approximated atmospheric drag –No use of solar indices –No rigorous application of force models –With numerical techniques, EOP and space weather are required inputs Integrate in inertial Apply forces in fixed If you use incorrect values of –EOP A few meters –Space Weather 1s to 1000s of kilometers

7 Pg 7 of 39 AGI EOP Data Sources 1. General Directory: – –*Current data (Current year to date) – updated Daily (~1400 UTC) –Historical data (1962 to date) – updated Daily (~1400 UTC) 2. General Directory: – –Current data (t-3 months-date + 90 days) – updated Daily (~1705 UTC) –Historical data (1973 to date + 1 year) – updated Weekly (Thursday) 3. General Directory: – –Current data – updated Weekly (Thursday) Coefficients effective for the following week starting Sunday. Multiple files, 5 is last digit of year, 255 is the day of the year in the example below * Not necessarily needed for processing, use 62-now files

8 Pg 8 of 39 AGI Summary of EOP Data Files Current Time, T 00:00 Sunday 14:28 23:59 Saturday IERS EOPC04.62-now ( UT1, x p, y p,, LOD,,, X, Y) NGA EOPPyddd.txt ( UT1, x p, y p ) USNO Finals.daily, Finals2000a.daily ( UT1, x p, y p,,,, X, Y) + 90 days USNO Finals.all, Finals2000a.all ( UT1, x p, y p ) + 1 year 1962 -3 months 1973 00:00 FUTUREPAST

9 Pg 9 of 39 AGI Space Weather Data – Current 1. General Directory: – –Current data – updated Monthly (~22 nd – 24 th ) Each month is a.vx where x is the month (1-12). When the year is complete, its simply 2005 Data assembled from 1950 to 2005 (atmosall.txt) –Numerous omissions exist in the data (above file is linearly interpolated) –Current dataupdated daily Includes observed F10.7 daily values 2. General Directory: – –Current data – updated 3-Hourly –Current data – updated Daily (~0230 UTC) –Predicted data – updated Daily (~2114 UTC) No 3hrly values –Predicted data – updated Monthly (~3 rd of the month) Includes f10.7 monthly values predicted for about 2 years into the future Also has some old data which [depending on the access time] is overcome by actual measurements

10 Pg 10 of 39 AGI Summary of Space Weather Data Files Current Time, T 00:00 -1 month 14:28 00:00 1 month Quar_dgd.txt (3 hrly k p, daily a p ) Quar_dsd.txt (daily F 10.7 ) Predict.txt (monthly F 10.7 ) + 6 year + 45 days 45df.txt (daily F 10.7, a p ) yyyy.vm (daily F 10.7, daily and 3 hrly k p, a p ) Current Year - 3 months - 6 months 00:00 FUTURE PAST

11 Pg 11 of 39 AGI I. EOP Data

12 Pg 12 of 39 AGI EOP Parameters - Historical Leap Seconds

13 Pg 13 of 39 AGI Analyses Series are recomputed –IERS Twice weekly Some smoothing due to use of Vondrak algorithm –Removes high-frequency noise –USNO Weekly ? Comparisons Useful –Within Organizations USNO –Bulletin A and B », » X, Y –Between Organizations USNO, IERS, NGA –Note that axes scales and units are not constant

14 Pg 14 of 39 AGI Analysis USNO –Bltn A and Bltn B values, Bull B values only from Jan 1, 1989 –Reasonably consistent Bltn B dpsi some anomalies –Sep 1999

15 Pg 15 of 39 AGI Analysis USNO –Bltn A and Bltn B values X, Y Values from 1973 –Values before 1990 Additional variations –Bltn B some anomalies Sep-Oct 1999

16 Pg 16 of 39 AGI Comparisons Between Organizations –USNO (Bltn A and Bltn B) and IERS (EOPC04) Before 1984 –Larger variations –FK5 instituted Before 1997 –Smaller variations –Update to Equation of the equinoxes Note last few values –See next slide

17 Pg 17 of 39 AGI Comparisons (Cont) Between Organizations –USNO (Bltn A and Bltn B) and IERS (EOPC04) Last few days appear to differ (IERS and USNO) On Feb 22 for x p –0.035728 IERS –0.03383 USNO On May 5 for x p –0.035699 IERS –0.035491 USNO IERS Delta = 0.000029 USNO delta = -0.031661

18 Pg 18 of 39 AGI Comparisons (FK5 Corrections) Between Organizations –USNO (Bltn A and Bltn B) and IERS (EOPC04) Data availability –Bltn B values only after Jan 1, 1989 Each appear to have noise

19 Pg 19 of 39 AGI Comparisons (IAU 2000 Corrections) Between Organizations –USNO (Bltn A and Bltn B) and IERS (EOPC04) Data availability –EOPCO4 Values after Jan 1, 1984 Bltn B appears to better follow EOPC04

20 Pg 20 of 39 AGI Coefficient Approach NGA provides coefficients –Continuous representation of UT1, x p, y p –Lacks LOD,,, X, Y Generally smaller order effects Long-term behavior of EOP coefficients –x p, y p reasonable to use past the end of a data file – UT1 not recommended past about a month

21 Pg 21 of 39 AGI Comparisons – Long Term EOPC04 to NGA Coefficients –One year different epochs are shown –Notice variability –Runoff for UT1, x p –Current week is valid (highlighted) –Note 0.04 s 280m at 7 km/s

22 Pg 22 of 39 AGI EOP – How to Splice Together EOPC04 –Use 62-now file Up to current day Recomputed frequently USNO Predicted Bulletin A –Use.daily file Daily values (t-3 months to t+3 months) –Updated daily USNO Predicted Bulletin A –Use.all file 1 year predictions Data availability –Use last known file of each if any are not available –Values are acceptable for short periods of time (~week)

23 Pg 23 of 39 AGI II. Space Weather Data

24 Pg 24 of 39 AGI Space Weather Tracked for many years –Data to the 1930s Older data –Has numerous missing dates Physically a zero means little here! Corrected in our files –Quality flag set to 4 as an indicator Includes seasonal/solar cycle variations –Observed and adjusted to 1.0 AU values DRAO and Lenhart values –Atmospheric models use both

25 Pg 25 of 39 AGI Sensitivity Results Atmospheric Drag (see Vallado AAS 05-199) –Large variations Changing the atmospheric model Changing how the input data is interpreted –F 10.7 at 2000 UTC –Last 81-day average F 10.7 vs. the central 81-day average –Using step functions for the atmospheric parameters vs interpolation –Many others –Point to take away: 1-1000 km ephemeris differences are possible Unable to determine if from data interpretation or model differences

26 Pg 26 of 39 AGI Space Weather – Predictions Lots of Variability –Constant F 10.7 Not very accurate Never use 0.0! –Schatten Varies with each solar cycle –Polynomial Trend (Vallado 2004, 535) Matches several solar cycles F 10.7 = 145 + 75*COS{ 0.001696 t – 0.35*SIN(π + 0.001696 t )} –t is the number of days from Jan 1, 1981

27 Pg 27 of 39 AGI Historical and Polynomial Trend

28 Pg 28 of 39 AGI Schatten Predictions

29 Pg 29 of 39 AGI Statistics Comparisons Combined Results Individual Results Avg Deviation Standard Deviation Ctr 81-day – Daily F10.7 15.0021.99 Last 81-day – Daily F10.7 17.1724.92 Trend 81-day – Daily F10.7 20.7929.88 Monthly Trend – Monthly F10.7 15.3321.85 Variability same between –81-day averages and daily values –Monthly trend and monthly averages –Predicted (3-day, 45-day and 2 year) solar flux values

30 Pg 30 of 39 AGI Observed / Adjusted values

31 Pg 31 of 39 AGI k p – a p Conversions Rigorously defined –1940 – Chapman and Bartels – Geomagnetism –Discrete values Values exist that are not in the discrete values –Finding 3-hourly a p values for the last month –Finding k p values from predicted a p values Some Interpolation clearly required –Approaches Linear Interpolation Iteration Spline

32 Pg 32 of 39 AGI Comparison of Conversions Techniques – Interpolate, Iterate, Splines –Between approaches (left) –To exact values (right)

33 Pg 33 of 39 AGI Splining technique closure Note small scales

34 Pg 34 of 39 AGI III. File Setup

35 Pg 35 of 39 AGI File Setup Proceeding can be complex and time consuming –CSSI (Dr. Kelso) has done the work for you! – Files updated every 3 hours STK compatible Ability to generate custom-sized datasets –Smaller data sets may perform better on some more limited installations –Naming indicates start date Schedule –EOP and Space weather files ready today –Operational in next STK release

36 Pg 36 of 39 AGI Files C:\Program Files\AGI\STK 6.0\DynamicEarthData –EOP Files EOP1962-01-01.txt(New STK File) EOP1973-01-02Old.txt (Existing STK file) –Space Weather Files Atmos1957-01-01.txt(New STK File) Atmos1957-01-01Old.txt(Existing STK File) –Shorter files also available for about the last 5 years

37 Pg 37 of 39 AGI Additional Information Common changes for both files –All ASCII text –Start dates can be set to a time before the current date Naming convention permits quick determination –Set an end date –Observed and predicted sections consistent –Spacing minimized (file size) Maintain free-field read capability –Indicate number of data points

38 Pg 38 of 39 AGI Additional Information Specifics –EOP Add day, month, year to data Switch to predominantly IERS EOP-C04 data from USNO Bltn A data –Data now available from 1962 instead of 1973 Removed data for errors in x p, y p, and UT1 Added LOD,, Added AT, X, Y into one file Last values set to zero Include automatic leap second introduction –Space Weather Data from 1957 to date (more is possible) Added centered 81 day in addition to last 81 day average values, observed and adjusted Spliced past, current, and predicted data New structure for predicted data –Monthly and Daily sections Trend values for long term prediction possible

39 Pg 39 of 39 AGI Conclusions EOP and Space Weather data –Not high visibility However, large variations in numerical results –Ap/kp conversion Recommend using Cubic Spline approach –Predicted solar flux values Polynomial trend available for long term use Reasonable statistics to existing Schatten files –Your single source for consolidated values available:

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