Presentation on theme: "Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010."— Presentation transcript:
Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010
Todays Agenda Brief Intro Latest Summer Outlook Key Arguments (and Risks) Atlantic Hurricane Season
Brief Intro Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group ~16 Years in Commodity Weather Support (Energy) Commodity Weather Group, LLC – Started in April 2009 – Located in Bethesda, MD – Focus on Agriculture and Energy Commodities – 75+ Collective Years Experience in Consulting
CWG Summer Outlook ~.4% warmer than running 10Y normal ~2% warmer than running 30Y normal ~6% warmer than 2009 (both JJA and MJJAS)
Month-by-Month Best Chance for Most Frequent Heat is in the Pacific Northwest and Texas Main Themes Favor A Cool Start and a Hotter Finish Overall
Key Arguments Solar January Tropical Pacific AO Tokyo?
BUT: Solar Split 1955: : : : :
Closest North Pacific Fit April 3, 2010April 3, 1969
Arctic Oscillation 1969
Arctic Oscillation Q Top AO Years Have Close Fit Pattern 1958 is Best Fit 1969 Second
AO vs. ENSO W-Based-AO 1958xx 1966xx 1969xx x 2003x
January Clue YearJan GWHDDSummer Hot Hot Hot Hot Cool Cool Cool ? Cool Cool Cool
What Could Go Wrong?
Still not a big hot summer, but main anomalies are opposite of expectations. Big Hot Summer The pattern type is similar, but the Midwest is warmer and Texas is much much warmer!
A New Clue?
A Tokyo Trigger?
A New Clue? Four of Five Hottest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Cool Tokyo May Periods Four of Five Coolest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Warm Tokyo May Periods Actually linked to a prevailing pattern in northeast Asia. Look for more info in Energy Weather blogs in May.
Atlantic Tropics FORECAST NORMAL NAMED HURRICANE 836 MAJOR 322 Gulf Major: Zero or One (1)Upper Level Winds Not Expected to be as Favorable as 2005 in Gulf to Western Caribbean (2) Very Warm Atlantic Ocean May Favor Stronger Cape Verde Season (3) Late Season Timing Possible HMGM Mean