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Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010

2 Todays Agenda Brief Intro Latest Summer Outlook Key Arguments (and Risks) Atlantic Hurricane Season

3 Brief Intro Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group ~16 Years in Commodity Weather Support (Energy) Commodity Weather Group, LLC – Started in April 2009 – Located in Bethesda, MD – Focus on Agriculture and Energy Commodities – 75+ Collective Years Experience in Consulting

4 CWG Summer Outlook ~.4% warmer than running 10Y normal ~2% warmer than running 30Y normal ~6% warmer than 2009 (both JJA and MJJAS)

5 Month-by-Month Best Chance for Most Frequent Heat is in the Pacific Northwest and Texas Main Themes Favor A Cool Start and a Hotter Finish Overall

6 Key Arguments Solar January Tropical Pacific AO Tokyo?

7 Solar 195519661977198819982010

8 BUT: Solar Split 1955: 6.64 1966: 6.84 1988: -2.04 1977: -17.21 1998: -22.08

9 Tropical Pacific

10 Closest North Pacific Fit April 3, 2010April 3, 1969

11 Arctic Oscillation 1969

12 Arctic Oscillation Q1 1969-2.6 2010-2.4 1960-2.1 1958-2.1 1970-1.9 1966-1.9 Top AO Years Have Close Fit Pattern 1958 is Best Fit 1969 Second

13 AO vs. ENSO W-Based-AO 1958xx 1966xx 1969xx 1973 1983 1992 1998 x 2003x

14 January Clue YearJan GWHDDSummer 2006714.8Hot 2002820.6Hot 2007899.9Hot 2005926.3Hot 2000932.5Cool 2008935.9Cool 2001964.1Cool 2010983.6? 20031002.8Cool 20091026.4Cool 20041034.1Cool

15 What Could Go Wrong?

16 Still not a big hot summer, but main anomalies are opposite of expectations. Big Hot Summer The pattern type is similar, but the Midwest is warmer and Texas is much much warmer!

17 A New Clue?

18 A Tokyo Trigger?

19 A New Clue? Four of Five Hottest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Cool Tokyo May Periods Four of Five Coolest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Warm Tokyo May Periods Actually linked to a prevailing pattern in northeast Asia. Look for more info in Energy Weather blogs in May.

20 Atlantic Tropics FORECAST20102009NORMAL NAMED 14910 HURRICANE 836 MAJOR 322 Gulf Major: Zero or One (1)Upper Level Winds Not Expected to be as Favorable as 2005 in Gulf to Western Caribbean (2) Very Warm Atlantic Ocean May Favor Stronger Cape Verde Season (3) Late Season Timing Possible HMGM 19691251 1958750 1970522 19981030 20051574 Mean9.84.41.4

21 Commodity Weather Group Thank You


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