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CAS-XIV (Cape Town, 16-24 February 2006) Develop improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather and promote their.

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Presentation on theme: "CAS-XIV (Cape Town, 16-24 February 2006) Develop improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather and promote their."— Presentation transcript:

1 CAS-XIV (Cape Town, February 2006) Develop improved and cost-effective forecasting techniques with emphasis on high-impact weather and promote their application among Members. Enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realize fully the benefit of weather-related information in critical decision- making. Demonstrate improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, new observing systems, observational network design, data assimilation and modeling techniques, and information systems. Demonstrate the benefits of improved global, mesoscale, and nowcasting forecast systems to all societies.

2 Commission for Atmospheric Sciences JSSC/EPAC (Environmental Pollution Atmospheric Chemistry) JSC/WWRP (Word Weather Research Program) CAS ORGANIZATIONAL COMPONENTS: WG Numerical Experimentation ( WCRP)

3 World Weather Research Programme Synoptic Predictabilities (THORPEX) Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Tropical Meteorology Research Nowcasting Verification Societal and Economic Applications WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME Develops improved and cost effective weather forecasting techniques, with emphasis on high impact weather and promotes their application among Member States. SYNOPTIC PREDICTABILITIES (THORPEX) A 10-year international research and development programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week high impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment. MESOSCALE WEATHER FORECASTING RESEARCH Promotes, organizes and/or endorses end-to-end weather research and development projects (RDPs) including understanding of weather processes, improving forecasting techniques and the utility of forecast information with an emphasis on high-impact weather. TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH Promotes, Identifies and supports research initiatives relevant to the high-impact weather forecast requirements of NMHSs in tropical and monsoon regions, and thus contribute to social and economic benefits by preventing or mitigating disasters via imporved forecasts of tropical cyclones and anomalous monsoon rainfall. NOWCASTING Promotes and aids the implementation of nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within NMSs and among their end-users, including the potential use of numerical modelling and assimilation of very high resolution data. VERIFICATION Facilitates the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models. SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS Advances the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services and reviews and assists in the development and promotion of societal and economic- related demonstration projects. Contact: TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH Promotes, Identifies and supports research initiatives relevant to the high-impact weather forecast requirements of NMHSs in tropical and monsoon regions, and thus contribute to social and economic benefits by preventing or mitigating disasters via imporved forecasts of tropical cyclones and anomalous monsoon rainfall.

4 Drafting of Strategic Plan for World Weather Research Program (WWRP): Tropical Meteorology Research World Meteorological Organization CAS Working Group on Tropical Meteorological Research Guangzhou, China March 2007

5 WGTMR – before (6 components and 6 projects) 1.Tropical Cyclones: –Rapporteur –Project TC1 –Project TC3 2.Monsoons: –Rapporteur –IPEAM/Project M1 –Project M2 –Project M3 –Monsoon Activity Centers 3.Tropical Limited Area NWP 4.Interaction between tropical and midlatitude weather systems 5.Tropical drought and rain producing systems 6.Climate change aspects of tropical weather

6 Past Activities - TC Projects –Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes –Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction (Training) –Extra-Tropical Transition (Initiation of THORPEX-PARC) International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones –IWTC , Bangkok, Thailand –IWTC , Manila, Philippines –IWTC , Huatulco, Mexico –IWTC , Haikou, China –IWTC , Carins, Australia –IWTC , San Jose, Costa Rica Publications –Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (1993) –Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones. ( )

7 Past Activities - Monsoon Projects –M2 Project (Long-Term Asian and African Monsoon) –IPEAM/including M1 Project (East Asian Monsoon Research) –M3 Project (American Monsoon) Monsoon Activity Centers –Delhi –Kuala Lumpur –Nairobi International Workshop on Monsoons –IWM , Bali Indonesia –IWM , Delhi India –IWM , Hangzhou China –WMONEX , Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Monsoon Training Workshops Publications –Global Monsoon Systems: Research and Forecast (2005) –World Scientific Series on East Asian Meteorology

8 WGTMR – Proposed (2 components) 1.Tropical Cyclone Panel: –Expert Team on Observation, Processes and Prediction –Expert Team on Landfall Processes –Expert Team on Climate Impacts on TCs –Limited Area NWP 2.Monsoon Panel: –Expert Team on Severe Monsoon Weather –Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Monsoon Weather –Monsoon Activity Centers

9 Monsoon Panel Strategy Climate Scales: Global change, Decadal, Interannual, Seasonal, down to intraseasonal –Cooperate with and support WCRP monsoon activities –Cooperate with regional and international programs (e.g., APEC Climate Center) –Research on Impacts on local weather Weather Scales: Convection, Meso-, Synoptic, up to Intraseasonal –Regional and Local phenomena, effects of terrain –Top priority: Torrential rainfall, flooding –Joint efforts with TMRP/TC component

10 Activities Scientific and Training Workshops –Review state of the art, current issues and future directions –Facilitate researchers - forecasters interactions –Relating research results to forecasters on an ongoing basis –Update WMO Report on Monsoon for Member NMHSs. WMO Monsoon Activity Centres –New Delhi (IMD: South Asia) –Kuala Lumpur (MMS: Southeast Asia) –Beijing (CMA, East Asia) Encourage, endorse and support monsoon research that is relevant to forecast of high-impart weather through regional and international cooperation

11 Research Projects Encourage, endorse and support weather scale monsoon research through regional and international cooperation –Examples STORM (Severe Thunderstorms – Observations & Regional Modeling ) SCHeREX Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (MAPHRISC) SoWMEX Southwest Monsoon Experiment (CWB/NTU) TiMREX Terrain-induced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (US NCAR and universities) East China Sea Precipatation System (Pukyong and Nagoya U)

12 upstream conditions, surface fluxes, stability blocking, Inversion, convection Taiwan Island * * * * Ship Sounding Pre-Mei-Yu front DROPSONDE MISSIONS? sharp SST gradient baroclinic boundary layer enhances LLJ? Island Soundings Prof. Ben Jou Taiwan U. Dr. Wen Chau Lee, NCAR Prof. Renhe Zhang, CMA

13 Air-Sea Interaction Based on Satellite Data A study of precipitation-inducing atmospheric motions through the assimilation of a synoptic data A study of precipitation-inducing atmospheric motions through the assimilation of a synoptic data Development of meteorological prediction model using MIS (Meteorological Information System) Development of meteorological prediction model using MIS (Meteorological Information System) A study on the kinematic characteristics of precipitation system by dual Doppler radar analysis A study on the kinematic characteristics of precipitation system by dual Doppler radar analysis 2 Studies of precipitation system around northern part on the East China sea Studies of precipitation system around northern part on the East China sea 1 Global Research Laboratory Program Prof. Dong-In Lee, Pukyong N. U.

14 Typhoon COBRA, NICT May, June, September Doppler radar Radiosonde East China Sea Rainfall Systems Prof. Hiroshi Uyed, Nagoya U.

15 Workshops IWM-4: –Time: Late 2008 –Location: Possibly Malaysia or China –Possible joint meeting with CLIVAR AAMP –Update WMO TD No. 1266, balance between climate and severe weather topics Possible: –8th training workshop on monsoon (late 2008) –Workshop on QPE/QPF of TC and monsoon (2009)


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