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Online Weather Tools and Decision Making Mark Schilling Cambridge, Vermont.

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Presentation on theme: "Online Weather Tools and Decision Making Mark Schilling Cambridge, Vermont."— Presentation transcript:

1 Online Weather Tools and Decision Making Mark Schilling Cambridge, Vermont

2 Todays Presentation CLAS - WX Online at www.claswx.com

3 Three Topics Online Weather Tools The Missing Weather Products Weather Decision Making

4 General Aviation Pilots Guide to Preflight Weather Planning, Weather Self- Briefings, and Weather Decision Making www.faa.safety.gov PDF Document Link PDF Document Link

5 Weather Requirement Sec. 91.103 - Preflight action. Each pilot in command shall, before beginning a flight, become familiar with all available information concerning that flight. This information must include -- (a) For a flight under IFR or a flight not in the vicinity of an airport, weather reports and forecasts, ………

6 How to Obtain a Good Weather Briefing www.faa.safety.gov PDF Document Link www.faa.safety.gov PDF Document Link

7 Online Weather Tools Availability Accuracy Accountability Accessibility

8 Availability Hundred of sources (each with its own web address)

9 Availability Internet Services NWS NOAA DUATS Commercial Paid Services (AOPA)* Commercial Free Services (ads) Blastvalve Weather

10 Availability PDA / Cell Services DUATS (free) Blastvalve (free) Commercial Paid Services (Pilot My-Cast) Commercial Free Services (ads)

11 Blastvalve Weather for your PDA

12 Accuracy Frequent updates allow for better accuracy in changing conditions

13 Accuracy DUATS data source is exactly the same as Flight Service briefing. Only the interpretation is changed. Most other online services use the same commercial sources. IMPORTANT! Except for DUATS, Make sure pages are refreshed. Check the date and time.

14 Accountability (from: The General Aviation Pilot Guide …..) Direct User Access Terminal System (DUATS). Get a printed version of the FSS briefing package by obtaining a standard briefing for your route on DUATS. … this resource provides weather information in an FAA-approved format and records the transaction as an official weather briefing.

15 Accountability (from: The General Aviation Pilot Guide …..) You might want to print out selected portions of the DUATS computer briefing for closer study and easy reference when you speak to a Flight Service briefer.

16 Accountability DUATS Flight Service reports are documented with a unique number for each briefing. (Jot it down) Printouts of other data is a good idea to CYA

17 Accessibility http://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli ck.php?CityName=Waterbury&sta te=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.5 584&textField2=-73.0374&e=0 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli ck.php?CityName=Waterbury&sta te=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.5 584&textField2=-73.0374&e=0Or….

18 Accessibility www.claswx.com A website of weather product links for CLAS members

19

20 The Missing Weather Products Hint: They dont come from Flight Service

21 Analysis of Weather Systems Synoptic Scale – big picture Mesoscale – our local weather Storm Scale - thunderstorms Microscale – dust devils and thermals Misoscale – inside storms (good luck!)

22 Synoptic Scale Meteorology A horizontal length scale of the order of 1000 kilometres (about 620 miles) or more. Most high and low pressure areas seen on weather maps are synoptic-scale systems. PRODUCT: Weather Synopsis

23 Storm Scale Meteorology* A scale of sizes of weather systems on the order of individual thunderstorms. PRODUCT: Radar

24 Microscale Meteorology * Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; features generally too small to be depicted on a weather map. These include small and generally fleeting cloud "puffs" and other small cloud features. Microscale meteorology controls the most important mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere. PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense

25 Storm Scale Meteorology* A scale of sizes of weather systems on the order of individual thunderstorms. PRODUCT: Radar

26 Misoscale Meteorology Paraglider Ewa Wisnerska was caught in a thunderstorm while training for the Paragliding World Championships near Tamworth, Australia. As two storm cells merged, an updraft sucked Wisnerska to 32,612 feet above sea level.

27 Mesoscale Meteorology Weather systems smaller than synoptic scale systems but larger than microscale and storm-scale cumulus systems. Horizontal dimensions generally range from around 5 kilometers to several hundred kilometers. Examples of mesoscale weather systems are sea breezes, squall lines, rising thermals or acceleration through a narrow mountain pass. PRODUCT: Forecasts???

28 PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather phenomena are small, and often quick to develop and change. Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours and amended only with a substantial change in overall conditions. Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only twice daily. Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.

29 NEED: An operational weather prediction system to serve users needing frequently updated short- range weather forecasts, including those in the aviation community and severe weather forecasting community.

30 Rapid Update Cycle High-frequency (hourly) short-range weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in support of aviation and other mesoscale weather forecast users http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

31

32 RUC – Balloonists Wind Forecast www.ryancarlton.com

33

34 GOOD NEWS: Highly Accurate – Updates hourly - Selectable to multiple local reporting stations CT-11 MA-33 BAD NEWS: Private enterprise with little or no funding. Downtimes can be extensive

35 Inspiration Penny Christy Andre Charpentier

36 PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather phenomena are small, and often quick to develop and change. Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours and amended only with a substantial change in overall conditions. Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only twice daily. Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.

37 NEED: Current wind reporting information which covers all flight levels above the surface, tracks changes in speed and direction, and is frequently updated.

38 Velocity Azimuth Display A product of WSR 88-D Doppler Radar

39 Velocity Azimuth Display A Doppler radar product which shows the radar derived wind speeds at various heights. This radar product shows the wind speeds from 2,000 to 55,000 feet above the ground. VAD and EVAD (Extended VAD) are methods of guessing the large scale two-dimensional winds from one- dimensional radial velocity data.

40 2 10 14 99 0 15 0 -999.000 2 10 14 99 0 15 0 -999.000 Alt U V U_quality V_quality Alt U V U_quality V_quality 15.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 15.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 25.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 25.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 35.0000 -4.42783 -2.86866 0.0117679 0.0100526 35.0000 -4.42783 -2.86866 0.0117679 0.0100526 45.0000 -4.74168 -3.25964 0.00723661 0.00627844 45.0000 -4.74168 -3.25964 0.00723661 0.00627844 55.0000 -4.97028 -3.56065 0.00523892 0.00461943 55.0000 -4.97028 -3.56065 0.00523892 0.00461943 65.0000 -5.15894 -3.84263 0.00447775 0.00398398 65.0000 -5.15894 -3.84263 0.00447775 0.00398398 75.0000 -5.33852 -4.13267 0.00435625 0.00387821 75.0000 -5.33852 -4.13267 0.00435625 0.00387821 85.0000 -5.50235 -4.41604 0.00418550 0.00372856 85.0000 -5.50235 -4.41604 0.00418550 0.00372856 95.0000 -5.66219 -4.66417 0.00409816 0.00365585 95.0000 -5.66219 -4.66417 0.00409816 0.00365585 105.000 -5.82211 -4.86708 0.00393825 0.00352045 105.000 -5.82211 -4.86708 0.00393825 0.00352045 115.000 -5.96991 -5.01418 0.00377675 0.00338457 115.000 -5.96991 -5.01418 0.00377675 0.00338457 125.000 -6.07160 -5.12148 0.00368898 0.00331722 125.000 -6.07160 -5.12148 0.00368898 0.00331722 135.000 -6.08357 -5.22248 0.00375266 0.00339252 135.000 -6.08357 -5.22248 0.00375266 0.00339252 145.000 -6.04707 -5.29926 0.00405005 0.00367672 145.000 -6.04707 -5.29926 0.00405005 0.00367672 155.000 -6.05737 -5.33868 0.00404991 0.00368617 155.000 -6.05737 -5.33868 0.00404991 0.00368617 165.000 -6.08062 -5.35491 0.00421411 0.00384434 165.000 -6.08062 -5.35491 0.00421411 0.00384434 175.000 -6.05076 -5.37504 0.00451533 0.00412299 175.000 -6.05076 -5.37504 0.00451533 0.00412299 185.000 -6.03161 -5.37407 0.00456651 0.00417622 185.000 -6.03161 -5.37407 0.00456651 0.00417622 195.000 -6.01119 -5.36359 0.00461893 0.00423726 195.000 -6.01119 -5.36359 0.00461893 0.00423726 205.000 -5.96387 -5.36568 0.00459473 0.00422362 205.000 -5.96387 -5.36568 0.00459473 0.00422362 215.000 -5.93641 -5.34472 0.00462578 0.00426286 215.000 -5.93641 -5.34472 0.00462578 0.00426286 225.000 -5.91761 -5.30915 0.00473928 0.00438076 225.000 -5.91761 -5.30915 0.00473928 0.00438076 235.000 -5.86892 -5.30064 0.00477900 0.00442306 235.000 -5.86892 -5.30064 0.00477900 0.00442306 245.000 -5.83777 -5.28342 0.00494448 0.00457834 245.000 -5.83777 -5.28342 0.00494448 0.00457834 255.000 -5.82343 -5.25181 0.00514618 0.00477130 255.000 -5.82343 -5.25181 0.00514618 0.00477130 265.000 -5.77302 -5.24365 0.00522665 0.00484109 265.000 -5.77302 -5.24365 0.00522665 0.00484109 275.000 -5.73986 -5.22315 0.00550960 0.00510070 275.000 -5.73986 -5.22315 0.00550960 0.00510070 285.000 -5.72165 -5.19037 0.00594406 0.00548418 285.000 -5.72165 -5.19037 0.00594406 0.00548418 295.000 -5.66493 -5.19647 0.00631900 0.00580289 295.000 -5.66493 -5.19647 0.00631900 0.00580289 305.000 -5.63705 -5.18998 0.00669260 0.00611943 305.000 -5.63705 -5.18998 0.00669260 0.00611943 315.000 -5.63018 -5.16959 0.00729033 0.00666555 315.000 -5.63018 -5.16959 0.00729033 0.00666555 325.000 -5.54537 -5.20357 0.00753580 0.00687291 325.000 -5.54537 -5.20357 0.00753580 0.00687291 335.000 -5.46571 -5.22570 0.00786145 0.00715213 335.000 -5.46571 -5.22570 0.00786145 0.00715213 345.000 -5.42398 -5.21837 0.00834880 0.00759911 345.000 -5.42398 -5.21837 0.00834880 0.00759911

41 VAD Wind Profile A radar plot of horizontal winds, derived from VAD data, as a function of height above a Doppler Radar. This display is useful for observing local changes in vertical wind shear, such as backing of low-level winds, increases in speed shear, and development or evolution of nearby jet streams (including low- level jets).

42 Select type of NIDS product: Base Reflectivity(0.5) Base Reflectivity(1.45-1.5) Base Reflectivity(2.4-2.5) Base Reflectivity(3.35-3.5) Composite Reflectivity 248 NM Base Reflectivity(0.5) Echo Tops Base Radial Velocity(0.5) Base Radial Velocity(1.45-1.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(0.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(1.45-1.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(2.4-2.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(3.35-3.5) Vertically Integrated Liquid One-Hour Precipitation Storm Total Precipitation Velocity Azimuth Display(VAD) Winds Select type of NIDS output: Single Image 2-Hour GIF Loop 2-Hour JAVA Loop Select type of NIDS product: Base Reflectivity(0.5) Base Reflectivity(1.45-1.5) Base Reflectivity(2.4-2.5) Base Reflectivity(3.35-3.5) Composite Reflectivity 248 NM Base Reflectivity(0.5) Echo Tops Base Radial Velocity(0.5) Base Radial Velocity(1.45-1.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(0.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(1.45-1.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(2.4-2.5) Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(3.35-3.5) Vertically Integrated Liquid One-Hour Precipitation Storm Total Precipitation Velocity Azimuth Display(VAD) Winds Select type of NIDS output: Single Image 2-Hour GIF Loop 2-Hour JAVA Loop

43 GOOD NEWS: Fairly Accurate – Good reporting of short-term changes. Refreshes every 10 minutes BAD NEWS: Connecticut and Massachusetts in Bermuda Triangle of 3 closest reporting stations – Clear, dry air yields no readings

44 Accessibility www.claswx.com A website of weather product links for CLAS members

45 Weather Decision Making

46 Beth Millers Question What is going on at these balloon rallies?

47 Beth Millers Question Incidents at balloon events are increasing at an alarming rate. Why?

48 Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth thought she would hear: Pressure from event Peer pressure Fear of De-Invitation Financial

49 Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth listened and heard: Pilot base getting older Older means more confident Less focused as age advances Slower recovery from partying Students in 50s. Can now afford the sport

50 Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth listened and heard: Congestion - Expressway vs. Local The terrain has changed Less experienced crew (pickup crew) Wind Factor

51 Discussion

52 Why are we flying in weather we would never consider at home?

53 Microscale Meteorology * Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; OR LACK THEREOF. (Sucker Holes) Microscale meteorology controls the most important mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere. PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense

54 Pilot Decision Making by Cooler Albuquerque 2008

55 Normally, your first decision is your best decision. - Beth Miller

56 When does the pilot say NO? When does the event close the field? When does the event close the field?

57 Storm Scale Meteorology* A scale of sizes of weather systems on the order of individual thunderstorms. PRODUCT: Radar

58 But the weatherman said… Solberg 2007

59 Thunderstorms (Storm Scale) Outflow Boundaries (Mesoscale)

60 Look to the sky – is it telling you something?

61 When does the pilot say NO? When does the event close the field? When does the event close the field?

62 Why are these questions not mutually exclusive??

63 Ballooning vs. FASTCAR

64 Advance the cause of Ballooning as a safe activity vs. Sanction and marketing of one of North Americas premier sports.

65 First, Do no harm vs. Balls to the Wall

66 FASTCAR Its all about the money The only people you hurt are drivers The only property you damage is cars

67 None of these apply to Ballooning!

68 In order for this sport to survive, we are going to rethink the decisions we are making. We dont want to kill this beautiful sport -Beth Miller

69 Earl MacPherson 1941-2008


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