7Crop –weather relations The surface air temperature influences the nut development, copra and oil yield in coconut.Pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall accounts for 37 per cent of yield variability in Ist crop of rice.Some pests severe in coconut during summer, others in rainy season.High maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity favourable during the establishment phase in rice. High maximum temperature is favourable during the ripening period., Huda et al. (1975) .At Coimbatore and Aduthurai, additional rainfall was found to be detrimental to the rice crop during sowing, tillering and flowering periods, while it was found to be beneficial during elongation ( Sreenivasan and Banerjee, 1978).
8Crop-pests-disease relations Gall midge incidence in rice -positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with maximum temperature (Thomas et al., 1975).Favourable conditions for the infestation of rice gall midge were found to be Tmax of 35.2oC, Tmin of 19.8oC with a RH of 89.94% and mean rainfall of 4.5 to mm (per 5 day period)In Northern Kerala, blast disease is very severe in winter when the minimum temperature goes below 20oC (Premnathan et al., 1999).High stem borer infestation was noted in paddy planted from October to November and low infestations in crop planted from June to October. The pest infestation is negatively correlated with rainfall and minimum temperature and positively with maximum temperature
9Plant Disease Triangle AmountofDiseaseEnvironmentLeaf wetnessTemperaturePathogenAmount of inoculumVirulenceFor plant disease to occur, the three legs of the triangle must be present and interact suitably. If any of the three factors is altered in some way, changes in the progression of a disease epidemic can result.CropSusceptibility, health
10Potential impacts of changes in moisture on plant disease Pathogens dependent on free moisture for infection are likely to be more successfuleg. root pathogensIncreased moisture in the form of free water on leaves, increased relative humidity in the atmosphere and plant canopy, and excessive soil moisture will tend to favor plant pathogens. Photo on left, leaf wetness sensor in an onion canopy. Center photo is an electronic weather monitor used on farms. Right photo are snap bean plants with varying amounts of root rot. Beans 3rd from left have the least root rot. Far left beans have the most.Leaf wetness sensor& weather monitorHealthy and diseasedbean roots
11Potential impacts of changes in moisture on plant disease Higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations favor fungal spore production, accelerating epidemic developmentOnce infection is initiated, many pathogens can cycle rapidly in the field producing a disease epidemic. Higher moisture levels can increase the rate of cycling for many pathogens. Late blight of potato and tomato sporulates only during periods of high humidity. The leaf on the left shows late blight lesions under low relative humidity, the middle photo shows sporulation around the perimeter of lesions under high relative humidity. The photo on the right shows a potato field killed by late blight.
12Insects and the Environment Insects are cold-bloodedDevelopment rates rise and fall with temperatureTemperature is the most important factor influencing:DevelopmentReproduction rateSurvivalDistributionMany entomologists believe that temperature effects are the most important environmental effects mediating the growth of insects. In general the rate of many aspects of an insects life are determined by temperature. In addition the speed of insect dispersal through flight or other means can be impacted. Generally, the higher the temperature the more rapidly insects develop and spread.
13Crop-Weather-Pest interactions Leaf Roller ( Cnapholocrocis medinalis)Attack in RiceNegative correlation with minimum temperature, evening relative humidity & rainfallPositive correlation with sunshine hrs & maximum temperature
15WEATHER INFORMATION IN FARM MANAGEMENT Cultivars Selection• Choosing windows for Sowing/harvestingoperations• Irrigation scheduling – optimal water use• Mitigation from adverse weather events such as frost, low temperature, heavy rainfall – at critical crop stages• Nutrient Management : Fertilizer application• Plant Protection : Pesticide/fungicide spraying schedules• Feed, Health and Shelter Management forLivestock [Optimal temperature for dairy/ hatchery
21Cold waveFrost damage is the number one weather hazard, on a planetary scale, as far as agricultural and forest economical losses are concernedPapayaMustardIceJatrophaFrost damage to the different crops (Hisar, )21
2220 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003 Heat Wave (2003) - Damage to PoultryAndhra Pradesh20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003Highest in E. Godavari-7 Lakhs; W. Godavari – 5 lakhsEgg production decreased in the state by 25%Total Loss by 27 Crores22
24Climate change Vs. Agriculture Agricultural productivity sensitive to climate induced changes- Direct effect ( Temp, Rainfall, CO2 Concentration- Indirect effect (Changes in soil moisture and distribution and frequency of infestation by pests and diseases)
25Climate Change effects- Agriculture +5 to -11% change in rice productivity of Western GhatsMaximum temperature likely to rise by 10C to 30C in southern regionMean sea level 1.3 mm/year along Indian cost.Fish stocks may face extinction or may move towards high latitude.Source: Climate change in India-A 4x4 assessment, MoEF, GoI, 2010
27Climate change adaptations in Agriculture Climate Change Mitigations in Agriculture
28Focus of Climate Change adaptations in Agriculture Reduce vulnerability to Climate ChangeClimate resilience throughCommunity & farm level managementTechnologyMarkets and institutional policy
29Climate Change adaptation strategy for agriculture Farm level adaptationChanges in inputs, irrigation practices, tillage, crop choice, crop rotation, diversification, harvesting & processingSocial adaptationSocial network, group actions, SHGs, local water management techniques, traditional water conservation measuresTechnology adaptationMicro irrigation, Water harvesting, Flood mitigation, land drainagePolicy adaptationPolicy of institutions dealing with water allocation, planning & management, regulations of local bodies
30Crop Based ApproachesCrops and varieties that fit into new cropping systems and seasonsDevelopment of varieties with changed durationVarieties for high temperature, drought, inland salinity and submergence toleranceCrops and varieties that tolerate coastal salinity and sea water inundationVarieties which respond to high CO2Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiencyiciency30
31Crop-Crop Diversity for adapting to increased pest incidence Creation of crop diversity by the introduction of another crop is known as crop- crop diversityThe insitu culturing of natural enemies lead to reduction of insect pests in diversified crop conditions.Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops with pigeonpea:Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor reduced the incidence of the insect pests.These results can go as component of Low External input IPM modulesCreation of crop diversity by the introduction of another crop is known as crop- crop diversityThe insitu culturing of natural enemies lead to reduction of insect pests in diversified crop conditions.Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops with pigeonpea:Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor reduced the incidence of the insect pests.31
32Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders 32
33Climate change mitigations in agriculture Agriculture responsible for 1/3rd of GHG emissions in IndiaMitigation efforts should focus on reducing GHG emissions through ;FinancingTechnologyStringent policiesMitigation
34Applications-agro meteorology Climate Change- tools for future strategyLong term trends in weather parametersProduction trendsDesigning future production strategy
35Long term climate trends vs. Cassava production The seasonal rainfall influence on cassava production in KeralaMaterialsMonthly rain fall data ( IITM)Cassava production – ( DES, GoK)
36Long term climate trends vs. Cassava production SW monsoon influenced the cassava productiondeclining trend in SW monsoon, increasing trend in Post monsoon RF, decrease in RF in June & July, Increase in RF in Aug & SeptNorth- East Monsoon & Pre – Monsoon rains had no effect
38Weather forecasts High Precision Weather forecasting Regional specific forecastingLinking with Agro Advisory Services
39Decision support systems Crop-weather- pest-disease- management information to the farming communityWeb based services farmer services
40Crop-weather insurance Weather Based Crop Insurance aims to mitigate the hardship of the insured farmers against the likelihood of financial loss on account of anticipated crop loss resulting from incidence of adverse conditions of weather parameters like rainfall, temperature, frost, humidity etc.Weather based Crop Insurance uses weather parameters as ‘proxy’ for crop yields in compensating the cultivators for deemed crop losses.National Agriculture Insurance Company- Weather based Crop Insurance scheme
45PROBLEMS OF EXISTING WEATHER NETWORK Lack of sufficient network to draw weather dataAbsence of agroclimatic zone wise advisory serviceAbsence of sufficient location specific research dataIssues in disseminationTechnical problems of forecast
46"ANTARIKSH" PROJECT Initiated in 2004 by State Planning Board A multi institutional collaborative project jointly undertaken by the Indian Space Research Organisation, CUSAT and State Planning Board linking with KAU and Dep. of Agriculture aimed at augmenting current meteorological network in Kerala so as to provide full fledged crop weather advisory services to farmersInitiated in 2004 by State Planning Board
47ANTARIKSH-Objectives Strengthening Weather Network in the StateDissemination of weather dataWeather Advisory ServicesGeneration of location specific data for researchand development purposeData Support for Weather InsuranceDevelopment of crop weather information system
48So Far ….ISRO developed AWS for the first time with indigenous technologyEstablished 56 AWSSet up a portalCUSAT prepared reportsKAU generating crop weather information systemsDeveloped Block level/AEU wise forecasting models
51Agro Ecological Approach The concept of agro-ecological delineations was developed by FAO (1976, 1978) with strong emphasis on comparable agro-climatic parameters to delineate agriculturally potential areas suitable for particular crops or combination of crops so that optimum production potential is achieved.The analysis of agro-ecology of the Kerala State based primarily on climate, geomorphology, land use and soil variability resulted in delineation of five agro-ecological zones and twenty three agro-ecological units..
52AEZ Based Planning AEZ Farming System Approach Schematic Production SupportWeather Advisory SupportPTD/FLD/OFT (KVK)Extension Support(Including IT + Field visit)Farmextensionmanager.com)Water Management(Ponds + ……..)Livelihood improvementMarketing at higher levelsFuture Agricultural Development in KeralaAEZ