9What We Do Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings For All AmericansTo Protect Life and PropertyTo Enhance the National EconomyData and Products:Government AgenciesPrivate SectorThe PublicGlobal CommunitiesWeather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions“The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01
10What We DoThe NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather warnings.Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecastsProvide support to other local, state and federal government agencies.River and flood forecasts and servicesLargest data collection network in the worldNOAA Weather RadioSkywarn Spotter ProgramCooperative Observation ProgramOutreach projects
12Background Information Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff availableNational Weather Service limits on servicesPrivate Weather Vendors$$ for interpretation and customized service
13How a Forecast was Made.2) Forecaster looks at forecast guidance from several numerical weather prediction models and begins making a mental image of the forecast
14How a Forecast was MadeOnce the forecaster creates the mental image of the forecast they then used to…Type the aviation forecastType the public forecastType the fire weather forecastThe forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day typing!
15New Forecast MethodObserved and computer forecast guidance acts as base forecastForecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in a digital forecast database to best match expected forecastDigital forecast database is the source for traditional forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts
16Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical Forecast Editing Software
24NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill WSR-88D CapabilitiesReflectivity“Hot” colors means more intense echoes (heavy rain/hail)Simply a measure of “reflected” energyVelocity“Warm” colors -Winds blowing away from the radar“Cool” colors – Winds blowing toward the radarSelf explanatory.
26Products to Anticipate Severe Weather HWOProvides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherSvr Tstorm/Tornado WatchProvides a few hours notice that conditions are condusive to severe weather should storms developWarningsSevere weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent
27Anticipating Severe Weather Hazardous Weather OutlookFocus on expected threats.Seven day outlook for severe weather.Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m.Broadcast continuously on NWR.Slide depicts samples of our local web page. First graphic is the point-and-click forecast. Talk about the graphics and text involved in the digital forecasts, and how it too is a good planning tool. Point out the link to radar imagery and current weather conditions, then describe that if there are hazards expected in the short term, that the red link “Hazardous Weather Outlook” will appear. If warnings or watches are in effect, they will also show up as red banner links. Click the pointer to change image to an example of an HWO. Explain its contents (bullets to the right) and how it is the preparedness tool of choice for the spotter and emergency manager. Click to go to the next slide when finished.
28Products to Anticipate Severe Weather HWOProvides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherSvr Tstorm/Tornado WatchProvides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms developWarningsSevere weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent
29Severe Weather Watch WATCH URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK AM CST SUN MAR THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS MOST OF MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CST....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.WATCHConditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the watch areaWatches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and FloodsTalking points: Watches are issued for large areas covering many counties. Typically issued before storms initiate and are valid through the expected event. Example shown is from the late morning of march 12th (PDS Tornado box for the afternoon/evening). Mouse click will switch to the text version of the product.
30Products to Anticipate Severe Weather HWOProvides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherSvr Tstorm/Tornado WatchProvides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms developWarningsSevere weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent
31Severe Weather Warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 807 PM CST SUN MARTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI* UNTIL 845 PM CST* AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST. THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM. THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.LAT...LONWARNINGA severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned areaWarnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and FloodsTalking points: Warnings are storm driven events that urge people to take immediate action to protect life or property. Average valid time is 30 to 60 minutes for very specific areas. Point out polygon warnings (will be discussed on next slide).Warned Area
33How Walmart Uses Polygons Walmart EOC uses GIS to overlay polygons onto a store location mapWalmart EOC then calls individual stores affected by warnings alerting them of the threat
34Storm Prediction Center Website www.spc.noaa.gov Good place for large scale outlook maps, and technical discussions as to severe weather threats across the country.
35How To Receive Warnings NOAA Weather RadioNationwide networkAlarm FeaturePortable devices availableProgrammable to customize by location or warning type desiredEquip every facility with one
36Overall Planning/Safety Before the season begins…Create your weather safety plan and train employees/volunteersDuring the season…Maintain your situational awarenessAssign a person or position to be the weather watcherIf thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to communicate appropriate threats and safety infoPractice, Practice, Practice
37Threats From Thunderstorms The biggest threat from thunderstorms at outdoor events is lightning.Other risks include Hail…straight-line winds >80 mphpossibly a tornadoflooding in multiuse areas
38Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning Kills more people than tornadoesDangerous at great distances from parent storm30-30 ruleIf the time between seeing lightning and hearing thunder is less than 30 seconds seek shelter immediatelyDon’t emerge from shelter until 30 minutes after last thunder is heard-many deaths occur after the storm has passed
39Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail If you event has thousands or even hundreds of attendees, the potential for numerous injuries is high.If you follow the 30/30 lightning rule, hail should not be an issue.
40Questions to PonderDo you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if so do you practice it?)How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into your companies operations?How can your business perform better, and keep employees and customers safe using weather data?What’s stopping you from taking action?