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KENYA By Sir David Ochieng

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1 KENYA By Sir David Ochieng

2 KENYA: Colonized by British Became independent in 1963 Member of many international organizations including the Commonwealth of Nations, the African Union and the United Nations Economy: GDP: $61.65 billion Unemployment rate: 40% Industries: small-scale consumer goods (plastic, furniture, batteries, textiles, clothing, soap, cigarettes, flour), agricultural products, horticulture, oil refining; aluminum, steel, lead; cement, commercial ship repair, tourism

3 KENYA CONTINUED … Population: 39,002,772 people Ages Structure : 0-14 years: 42.3% 15-64 years: 55.1% 65 years and over: 2.6% 12,200,000 between age 10-24 (about 31%) Ethnic Groups: Kikuyu 22%, Luhya 14%, Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11%, Kisii 6%, Meru 6%, other African 15%, non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1% Religious Groups: Protestant 45%, Roman Catholic 33%, Muslim 10%, indigenous beliefs 10%, other 2%

4 BACKGROUND KENYAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT Before Independence Secret Kikuyu guerrilla group known as Mau Mau begins violent campaign against white settlers. State of emergency declared. Kenyatta arrested. 1953 - Kenyatta charged with management of Mau Mau and jailed. KAU banned. 1960 - State of emergency ends. Britain announces plans to prepare Kenya for majority African rule. Kenya African national Union (Kanu) formed by Tom Mboya and Oginga Odinga. Independence 1961 - Kenyatta freed and assumes presidency of Kanu. 1963 - Kenya gains independence, with Kenyatta as prime minister. 1964 - Republic of Kenya formed. Kenyatta becomes president and Odinga vice-president. 1966 - Odinga, a Luo, leaves Kanu after ideological split, forms rival Kenya People's Union (KPU). 1969 - Assassination of government minister Tom Mboya sparks ethnic unrest. KPU banned and Odinga arrested. Kanu only party to contest elections. 1978 - Kenyatta dies in office, succeeded by Vice-President Daniel arap Moi. 1982 June - Kenya officially declared a one-party state by National Assembly.

5 PERCENT OF VOTES FOR PRINCIPLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PER PROVINCE IN 1992 NairobiCoast NEEastern Central Rift Valley WesternNyanza Moi1662723702713915 Matiba4411 1060163801 Kibaki1810055035070206 Odinga2014080201051760

6 1969 - Assassination of government minister Tom Mboya sparks ethnic unrest. KPU banned and Odinga arrested. Kanu only party to contest elections. 1978 - Kenyatta dies in office, succeeded by Vice-President Daniel arap Moi. 1982 June - Kenya officially declared a one-party state by National Assembly.

7 KENYA CONTD 1987 - Opposition groups suppressed. International criticism of political arrests and human rights abuses. Multi-party elections 1991 December - Special conference of Kanu agrees to introduce a multi-party political system 1992 December - Moi re-elected in multi-party elections. Kanu wins strong majority. 1994 - Odinga dies. 1997 - Demonstrations calling for democratic reform. World Bank withholds disbursement of $5bn in structural adjustment credit. 1997 December - Moi wins further term in widely-criticised elections. His main opponents are former vice-president Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, son of Oginga Odinga. 2001 - Ethnic tensions culminate in thousands several violent clashes. In December flee and several people are killed in rent battles involving Nubian and Luo communities in Nairobi's Kibera slum district. 2004 March-July - Long-awaited draft of new constitution completed. Document requires parliament's approval and proposes curbing president's powers and creating post of prime minister. But deadline for enactment is missed. 2004 July-August - Food crisis, caused by crop failures and drought, dubbed "national Parliament approves a draft constitution after days of violent protests in Nairobi over aspects of the draft which demonstrators say give too much power to in the president's hands. 2005 November-December - Voters reject a proposed new constitution in what is seen as a protest against President Kibaki. The president replaces his cabinet; some nominees reject 2006 April - Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao signs a contract allowing China to prospect for oil off the Kenyan coast. His African tour has focused on trying to satisfy China's hunger for energy and raw materials. 2007 December - Presidential elections. President Kibaki claims victory and a second term in office, prompting a wave of unrest. Opposition says polls were rigged. Opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wins most seats in the parliamentary election.

8 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS 1997 RegionsKibakiMoiNgiluOdingaWamalwa Total31.0%40.6%7.9%10.8%8.2% Central Province89.3%5.6%3.1%0.7%0.3% Coast Province12.8%63.4%9.4%6.1%2.8% Eastern Province28.5%35.5%33.6%0.7% Nairobi Province43.9%20.6%10.9%16.3%6.8% North Eastern21.2%73.2%0.4%0.3%4.6% Nyanza15.1%23.6%1.7%56.8%1.6% Rift Valley Province20.9%69.5%07%2.2%6.2% Western Province1.4%44.9%0.5%1.9%48.2%

9 KENYAS ELECTIONS Background Dec 27, 2007 10 th general election/4 th multiparty Flaws, irregularities 1992,1997, 2002 9 presidential candidates/2,547 parliamentary/15,331 local government Highly contested PNU and ODM Elect president/ parliament/local government Koffi Anan, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga Candidate nominations More than 100 registered parties Only 9 party candidates certified, one female No provision for independent candidates Pres nominations well conducted Parliamentary, civic chaotic, interference by party HQ Voter Registration Registration record high 2007 14 million voters or 82% total eligible voter population Continuous registration system Discrimination, multiple registration, 1.2 million names of deceased Voter education Electorate to understand process Anti-violence campaign Kimya campaign for high voter turnout

10 CAMPAIGN KENYA Free and fair environment Robust language, strong ethnic polarization, some clashes Kibaki (PNU) Kikuyu, Embu, Meru communities Political Platform=social economic record Raila Odinga (ODM) Luo, luhya, kalenjin Political platform=political, socio-economic reform, devolution of power Campaign financing Undisclosed, wealthy donors, intl donors, abuse of incumbency Distribution of money, goods, etc Media Environment Freedom of speech respected High level coverage during preparation, campaign Bias KBC coverage 76% for PNU Hate speech Radio, sms, internet, settlers, lets claim our land, people of milk cut grass aimed at kikuyu Lazy, dont work, dont pay rent, murderer Luo

11 ELECTION DAY Voter turnout Record high, millions of 1 st time voters, government ID 20,000 polling stations Election administration ECK, party agents, observers verify ballot Boxes Voters name verified against voter register 3 ballots, pre-stamped, Election observation 17,000 domestic, 62 organizations EU, COMESA, EAC, IRI, Pan-African Movement, KEDOF Observer comments Peaceful & orderly manner Irregularities Missing polling staff Late delivery election material Secrecy of votes breached Group voting

12 FINAL RESULTS KENYA ELECTIONS 2007 Counting & Tallying Polling stations constituency level ECK Irregularities Returning officers in 21 constituencies Turnover 100% in Kibaki strong hold after re-vote Announcement ECK legalized to announce results Parliamentary announced 12/29 presidential withheld PNU losses PNU, ODM pre-announce victory clashes Dec. 30 ECK announcement of winner 47% to 43%Chaos 1,000 dead, 500,000 IDP

13 RESULTS IN KENYAS ELECTIONS Results announcement ECK legalized to announce results Parliamentary announced 12/29 presidential withheld PNU losses PNU, ODM pre-announce victory clashes Dec. 30 ECK announcement of winner 47% to 43% Chaos 1,000 dead, 500,000 IDP

14 KRIEGLER REPORT Countries such as Mexico, where there has been radical electoral reform comparatively recently, have established a special electoral tribunal with extensive power and exclusive jurisdiction in relation to elections. This may be costly but has the great benefit of speed and special expertise. Then again, South Africa opted for a special electoral court with exclusive and final jurisdiction consisting of three senior members of the judiciary who ordinarily continue with their routine work but are on standby to deal with electoral matters on an urgent and prioritised basis. Expedition has thus been ensured with the prospect of some degree of specialist knowledge.

15 ONE MAN HALF VOTE? Most districts have populations that are well above or below the mean population of 103,000. the present system awarded KANU a higher proportion of seats (51%) than its proportion of the vote (43%) the current system favors the regions that support the ruling party, KANU, and discriminates against the regions that support opposition parties. The extent to which this argument is valid is illustrated by the results of the 1997 election.


17 NEW CONSTITUTION, NO NEW SYSTEM Part 2Composition and membership of Parliament Membership of the Senate 125. (1) The Senate shall consist of (a) members elected one each by the counties, each county assembly acting as an electoral college; Membership of the National Assembly 126. (1) The National Assembly shall consist of (a)members elected one each by the constituencies as may be provided by law; Election of State President 162. (1) The election of the State President shall be by direct adult suffrage through a secret ballot and shall be conducted in accordance with this Constitution and any Act of Parliament regulating presidential elections.

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