# EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET You are completing an appraisal in an area where normal marketing time is 150-210 days.

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EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET You are completing an appraisal in an area where normal marketing time is 150-210 days. You have gathered data on sales under 120 days and over 120 days in order to possibly extract a forecasting adjustment. After preliminary analysis, you decide that an analysis of sales price per square foot would be most appropriate.

FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Sale PriceSq FtDOMSP per Sq Ft \$245,000210085\$116.67 \$290,0002390110\$121.34 \$218,000196075\$111.22 \$272,000227590\$119.56 \$231,0002080101\$111.06 Table 1: Sales under 120 days on market Mean = \$115.77 median = \$116.67 Reconciliation: most similar = \$245,000.

FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Sale PriceSq FtDOMSP per Sq Ft \$237,0001910189\$124.08 \$258,0002070210\$124.64 \$305,0002310150\$132.03 \$275,0002095155\$131.26 \$280,0002145225\$130.54 Table 2: Sales over 120 days on market Mean = \$128.51 Median = \$130.54 Reconciliation: most similar = \$275,000.

FORECASTING/QUIUCK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Sales Price Per Square Foot Over 120 days: Mean - \$128.51 Median - \$130.54 Under 120 days: Mean - \$115.77 Median - \$116.67 Difference: Mean - \$12.74 Median - \$ 13.87 Reconciliation of data: Over 120 days:Sale #2\$275,000 = \$131.76 Under 120 days: Sale #5\$245,000 = \$116.67

FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Calculated as percentages: \$12.74/\$115.77 =.110 or 11.0% (using Mean) \$13.87/\$116.67 =.119 or 11.9% (using Median) Based strictly on the statistical analysis: What would your forecasting adjustment be on a \$272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days? (Answer: \$31,280 at 11.5%. Anticipated Sale Price/Quick Sale Value = \$240,720)

FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Reconciliation: Calculated as a percentage: \$245,000/\$275,000 =.109 or 11% (rounded) \$ 116.67/\$131.76 =.115 or 11.5% Based on the Reconciliation percentage: What would your forecasting adjustment be on a \$272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days? (Answer: \$29,290 at 11%. Anticipated Sale Price/Quick Sale Value = \$242,080.)

FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS- ADDITIONAL MEASURES Raw Mean Sale Price* \$250,200 - \$271,000 = (\$20,800) = 7.7% Raw Median Sale Price** \$245,000 - \$275,000 = (\$30,000)= 10.9% *Percentage based on over 120 days Raw Mean Sale Prices **Percentage based on over 120 days Raw Median Sale Prices

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