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The Economic Crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP): Monitoring the Impact on Children: The UNICEF EAPRO Experience Dr. Mahesh Patel, UNICEF.

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Presentation on theme: "The Economic Crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP): Monitoring the Impact on Children: The UNICEF EAPRO Experience Dr. Mahesh Patel, UNICEF."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Economic Crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP): Monitoring the Impact on Children: The UNICEF EAPRO Experience Dr. Mahesh Patel, UNICEF EAPRO, Brighton, March 2010

2 Average annual growth rates (GDP, constant prices) – 1997 Crisis to Now Source: IMF, September 2009

3 Rationale for real-time monitoring in East Asia and the Pacific Lack of substantive data on social impact of the1997/98 East Asian economic crisis UNICEF EAPRO commissioned special issue of Global Social Policy to explore potential impacts of this crisis on children based on lessons of the 1997/98 Crisis: –Concept note proposing methodology to monitor trends in health, education and social budgets using sentinel sites was part of this issue Countries where idea has been endorsed thus far: Lao PDR, Mongolia, Indonesia, Pacific Island Countries, Viet Nam –Slightly different versions in Indonesia and Viet Nam

4 UNICEF EAPRO methodology – Key Ideas Education: Possible indicators: attendance; teacher attendance; school budget receipts, including parental contributions. Sample sites – numbers could be collected from sentinel schools in selected vulnerable areas, weekly or monthly. Health: Outpatient visits, total ante-natal care visits, health center user fee receipts - all collected and collated, weekly or monthly. Sentinel sites often already exist for notifiable diseases and to warn of epidemics (also in HIV). Social Budgets: Simplest : Government strategic intent to increase, hold the line or reduce social expenditure More demanding: Comparison of fiscal budget years for sectors, data on total national disbursements and planned expenditures; Public Expenditure Reviews

5 Country examples of real-time monitoring

6 UNICEF initiatives (1): LPDR National consultation on monitoring the potential impact of the crisis on children in Feb 2009, following regional conference Government asked and UNICEF produced concept note, consulting relevant in-line ministries Concept note proposes monitoring 4 areas: Consumer price data: Already being collected in 8 sentinel sites (markets areas) across the country Education: Attendance – monthly, from 1 primary school per province Health: Monthly data from 18-27 health centres nationally on – weekly/monthly outpatient visits and total ante-natal care visits Child protection: Number of street children and number of village children in orphanages periodically – child protection section, with a local NGO, already collecting some primary data from focus group to assess impact of crisis on streeth youths/parents Health and education monitoring being finalized

7 UNICEF initiatives (2): Mongolia Deputy Prime Ministers Office leading the initiative, with technical and financial support from UNICEF- EAPRO concept note adopted and adapted to suit unique context Pilot just completed (December 2009): Info collected from15 sentinel sites – 250-280 HHs – using existing administrative systems; Pulse survey of 200 HHs; FGDs, IDIs and KIIs Sites selected based on poverty maps and poorest provinces/districts selected from countrys 5 regions For each selected district/province sentinel sites included: school, dormitory, FGP and/or health center, police station, convenience store 15 indicators monitored: health; education; livelihoods; protection and market prices of food and essential items

8 UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs UNICEF helped initiate and plays leading role in joint-UN monitoring scheme that is underway 8 PICs taking part: Fiji, Solomon Is., Tonga, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) 2-3 sentinel monitoring sites in each country, covering rural and urban settings, tracking services and communities Schools, hospitals/health centers, pharmacies, food markets and police posts 30 HHs served by facilities in sites will also be monitored with a small pulse-HH survey and FGDs – therefore 60-90 HHs/country Quarterly data collection throughout 2009-11 Sentinel sites selected by National Steering Committees

9 UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs (contd…) 4 countries have already completed their first round of data collection and preliminary estimates are available: –Tuvalu: 90 HHs monitored – HHs selected (40 in Funafuti, 30 in Nanumea and 20 in Nukufetau) using 2004/05 Tuvalu Households Income and Expenditure Survey 71.43 % of surveyed families said increase in food prices accounted for food budget constraints –Tonga: 56 HHs interviewed – 29 from urban, 27 rural 60% of those interviewed reported experiencing more difficulty in paying school related expenses compared to last year –Solomon Islands: 96 HHs interviewed – 30 urban, 66 rural 33% of all reported more difficulty in paying school related expenses compared to this time last year –Vanuatu: 90 HHs interviewed

10 UNICEF initiatives (4): Viet Nam UNICEF and UNDP helped VASS develop concept note on Rapid Impact Monitoring (RIM) of vulnerable communities in April 2009 RIM being undertaken in 10 selected sentinel sites nationally: 5 rural; 5 urban 2 industrial zones; 2 urban areas with many construction workers; 1 rural/coastal tourism site; 1 craft village; 1 rural site with substantial emigration; 1 rural, agriculture exporting site and 1 rural site with high concentration of poor HHs 2 rounds conducted so far: March/April 2009 and August- September 2009; government has not shared consolidated report yet

11 UNICEF initiatives (5): Indonesia UNICEF and WFP developed and piloted monitoring system to track impact of high food prices at the household level in 4 provinces, including Greater Jakarta, in 2008 Government adopted this methodology and set up a Food and Nutrition Security Monitoring System (FNSMS) in June 2009 4 provinces covered: East Java, NTT (Nusa Tengara Timur), Central Sulawesi and West Kalimantan 20 vulnerable districts– 5 per provinces; 1000 HHs Districts selected base on 2005 food insecurity atlas Currently in pilot phase – first set of results in: 14% HHs food insecure; 30% vulnerable School absenteeism found in 21% of HHs with at least 1 school age child 56% of surveyed HHs experienced difficulties due to food prices, health expenditures, lack of cash etc

12 Final thoughts Key Strengths Early warning system to detect changes/trends as a crisis evolves Provides data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations Flexibility in altering methodology Challenges Reliable results can only be achieved if appropriate indicators are selected Not reliable estimates of prevalence: –danger for the media and other users to interpret data as national –Caution in reporting baseline data No international guidelines for sample size, indicators, definitions of vulnerability etc available yet

13 Sentinel sites and Surveys: Brief Descriptions Sentinel Sites A number of sites (clinics, hospitals, police stations etc) are selected based on specific criteria A limited number of indicators for study/monitoring are selected Site staff trained to collect data. Data collection on-going Possibilities for quick data turnaround time Supplemented by other data collection activities MICS A household survey Typically representative at the national level but also, depending on scope, at smaller sub-national areas Typically conducted by the national statistical offices using especially trained staff Collects data on indicators across all programmes Conducted periodically – average every 5 years

14 Sentinel sites and Surveys: Key Uses of Data Sentinel Sites Early warning system to detect changes To provide localised data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations MICS Provide representative data with known statistical precision To monitor trends for indicators which are subject to both long and short-term changes To measure associations between variables i.e. household wealth, educational level of mother

15 Sentinel sites and Surveys: Inappropriate uses of data Sentinel Sites Caution on reporting on baseline data. If methodology is not clearly understood there is a danger for the media and other users to interpret data as national. MICS Data not always reliable for rare events or for disaggregated data. Cannot determine causation and data may not be sufficient to answer many important policy questions

16 THANK YOU!

17 Overview Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial. Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond: –Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports –Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery –Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges.

18 Overview Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial. Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond: –Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports –Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery –Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges.

19 Other potential and observed outcomes -Child and maternal health: -Wasting among poor urban children in Cambodia increased from 6 % in 2005 to 15.9 % in 2008, primarily due to rising food prices. -Education: -Evidence of households of migrant workers in Viet Nam taking children out of school and/or delaying school payments, or contemplating these as coping strategies. -Similar news coming from Cambodia and the Pacific Island Countries. -Education expenditures seem to have been maintained. -Job losses and income poverty: -20-25 million migrant workers in China were retrenched. -World Bank estimates 10 mi. people in EAP who would have escaped poverty this year will not be able to do so. -Reduced Official Development Assistance: -UNCTAD figures show cumulative drop of 30% of ODA by the 5 th year of a banking crisis in a donor country.


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