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Department of Political and Social Sciences 1 ASCN Annual Conference Political Transformation and Social Change in the South Caucasus: The Case of Georgia.

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Presentation on theme: "Department of Political and Social Sciences 1 ASCN Annual Conference Political Transformation and Social Change in the South Caucasus: The Case of Georgia."— Presentation transcript:

1 Department of Political and Social Sciences 1 ASCN Annual Conference Political Transformation and Social Change in the South Caucasus: The Case of Georgia Political economy of emigration intentions in the countries of South Caucasus Alexi Gugushvili PhD Researcher June, 2011 Bazaleti, Georgia

2 Department of Political and Social Sciences Is emigration important? Migration is damaging the country Demographic concerns, shrinking population Economic growth, socioeconomic development Fiscal balance, social policies, intergenerational concerns Emigration as the measurement of life quality This paper is concerned with covariates, not with the scope and direction of emigration 2

3 Department of Political and Social Sciences Migration determinants research framework I. Neoclassical Economics: Difference in supply and demand for labour – Human capital theory II. The New Economics of Migration: Minimisation of risk stemming from failures of labour and other markets Relative conditions matter – sociology of reference groups Risk insurance matter – mainly public, but also private insurance Migration as a coping strategy: Promotive strategy ; preventive strategy; protective strategy III. Post-New Economics of Migration: Growing movement of people within developing and developed nations: desired communities, preferred life-styles, attached ideologies, etc. 3

4 Department of Political and Social Sciences Covariates of emigration in the South Caucasus: What do we know? Gender Unemployment Poverty International social network 4

5 Department of Political and Social Sciences But doesnt political environment matter? Are economic factors only determinants of emigration? Undisputable links between turmoil and emigration Does perception of political environment associate with emigration? Some evidence: In Israel support for government explains emigration intentions (Hartman and Hartman, 1995); In Albania intentions to emigrate correlate with support for market reforms (Sanfey, 2001); In Romania market and democracy values are important for emigration intentions 5

6 Department of Political and Social Sciences Why political vs. economic conditions should matter differently? Armenia: Stable economic development, less changing political freedoms (2008 presidential elections, good relations with Russia) Azerbaijan: Substantial economic development, stagnant political regime (oil-revenues, consolidating authoritarianism) Georgia: Some political gains, stagnant socioeconomic indicators (2003 revolution, public sector reforms, Russian crisis) It seems reasonable to assume that political economy must have association with emigration 6

7 Department of Political and Social Sciences Some trends in socioeconomic developments 7 Fig.1: GDP per capita (USD) Tab.1: Poverty and inequality Source: WDI (2010) ArmAzeGeo Gini index (2008) Income share held by highest 20% (2008) Income share held by lowest 20% (2008) 985 Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day 1115

8 Department of Political and Social Sciences Some trends in political development Fig. 3: Political Rights Score Fig. 4: Civil Liberties Score Source: Freedom House (2010) 8

9 Department of Political and Social Sciences Hypothesis In more authoritative political environment, political attitudes are more important for emigration than economic conditions, while in more troubled economic environment economic conditions are more decisive for emigration than political attitudes 9

10 Department of Political and Social Sciences Micro-level survey data on migration intentions Migration intentions – indirect analysis of migration behaviour Growing interest in studies based on intentions data because of the difficulties in finding adequate data on actual migration Theory of reasoned action: some evidence on correlation between intentions and behaviour from developed and developing nations Shortcomings of migration intentions analysis: The responses can partly reflect personal frustration, not actual ability of emigration Future behaviour may be affected by intervening shocks Excludes those who already emigrated 10

11 Department of Political and Social Sciences Database – Caucasus Barometer Caucasus Research Resource Centers nationwide cross- sectional survey data in the countries of South Caucasus Pooling 2009 and 2010 datasets allows sufficient number of cases for a comprehensive analysis of emigration intentions Conclusions made are only associative nature, no causality can be insisted 11

12 Department of Political and Social Sciences Dependent variables Y1: If you had a chance, would you leave country for a certain period of time to live somewhere else? Yes=1, No=0 Armenia – 55.7% Azerbaijan – 49.5% Georgia – 40.5% Y2: If you had a chance, would you leave country forever to live somewhere else? Yes=1, No=0 Armenia – 23.9% Azerbaijan – 16.5% Georgia – 8.5% 12

13 Department of Political and Social Sciences Independent variables 13 Economic variablesPolitical variables Household items deprivation (min=0, max=6) Consumption deprivation (min=0, max=7) Household has debt Poverty is the main concern Country on right direction Elections are fair Government treats people fairly Trust in health system (completely disagree=1 and completely agree=4) Controls variables (usual suspects): Demographic variables, human and social capital, employment type, etc

14 Department of Political and Social Sciences Methodology Binomial probit regressions through nested models Marginal effects with robust standard errors Post-estimation predicted probabilities 14

15 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions Country-level regressions ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Gender and age Male.02.03*.11***.07***.04**.02** Born: After 1985 (ref. 1946).42***.25***.29***.23***.27***.05** Born: 1976– ***.24***.33***.22***.23***.07*** Born: 1966– ***.23***.26***.17***.30***.05** Born: 1956– ***.16***.20***.13***.17***.05** Born: 1946– ***.15***.14***.07**.10***.03* Education and health Sec. educat. (ref. prim. edu.).00–.02.07**.01.08**.03 Higher education–.01–.07**.08**.03.07**–.02 Good health (ref. bad health)–.01–.06**.02–.03.07***.02 Excellent health–.05*–.03.06**–.03*.11 ***.00 Domestic social capital Married (ref. single)–.05–.01–.05–.04**–.04*–.00 Social network index–.02*** –.01***.00–.01** Belonging to minority.18**.13**–.06*–.04*.04.06*** 15

16 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions (continued) Country-level regressions ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration International social capital Family member abroad.03*–.01.08***.02.03*.00 Friend abroad.05**.06***.09***.07*** Experience of being abroad.06**.04**.09***.04**.07**.05*** Receiving remittances.06**.02– *.04*** Proficiency in English.01.03** *.02** Proficiency in Russian.00.02** –.00 Labour status (ref. employed) Unemployed.09***.07***.06***.13***.03** Out of labour market– ** Student ***.08*** Homemaker.04.02–.07**–.04*.02.05*** Retired–.02 –.07*.00–.07**–.03 Number of observations Pseudo R

17 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 2: Explaining variation in dependent variables (Pseudo R-squared) Country-level regressions ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Settlement and year Gender and age Education and health Domestic social capital International social capital Labour status

18 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 3: Big part of differences in intentions can be explained by distr. of frequencies in key variables ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Cohort born: After Cohort born: 1976– Cohort born: 1966– Cohort born: 1956– Cohort born: 1946– Born before Family member abroad Friend abroad Experience of being abroad Receiving remittances

19 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 4: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions – political attitudes vs. economics ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Block 1: Economic conditions Household Items deprivation–.03.02– *–.01 Household Items deprivation 2.00–.00 –.01*.00 Consumption deprivation –.03**.04*.01 Consumption deprivation ***–.01*–.00 Household has debt.08***.04*.06**.02.08***–.00 Poverty is the main concern **–.02 Block 2: Changing conditions Incomes are up in last 2 years –.05–.09*–.03 Household member lost job last year.09*** –.01 In bottom 3 rungs in 5 years.06**.05*–.05.03– Block 3: Political attitudes Country on right direction–.01–.02**–.03**–.04***– Elections are fair.01–.06***–.08***–.03**–.04–.05*** Fair treatment–.03**–.01–.02–.00.01–.02** Trust in health system–.02*–.02**–.02–.02*–

20 Department of Political and Social Sciences Table 5: Political attitudes vs. economics: Comparison of significance ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Temporary emigration Permanent emigration Block 1: Economic conditions Wald Chi Pr > F-Statistics Block 2: Changing conditions Wald Chi Pr>F-Statistics Block 3: Political trust Wald Chi Pr>F-Statistics Block 4: Types of employment Wald Chi Pr>F-Statistics

21 Department of Political and Social Sciences Conclusions and discussion Emigration intentions across South Caucasus correlate with economic conditions as well as with political attitudes In Georgia mainly economic factors explain variation in intentions, in Azerbaijan political attitudes are decisive Equality of opportunities and building democratic institutions could correlate with lower emigration intentions and possibly with lower emigration trends Higher emigration intentions among the young generations (cohort vs. age) might also mean that consequently these societies will become more open, liberal and democratic 21

22 Department of Political and Social Sciences Thank you! 22

23 Department of Political and Social Sciences Hypothesis 2 Stratification on the labour market becomes increasingly important in South Caucasian countries, meaning that security and other characteristics of job are important for emigration H3: Emigration correlates not only with employment or unemployment, but also can be explained by the quality of jobs itself defined by, among other factors, fair compensation and general satisfaction with work. 23

24 Department of Political and Social Sciences Figures1 & 2: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention 24 Temporary emigrationPermanent emigration

25 Department of Political and Social Sciences Figures 3 & 4: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention 25 Temporary emigrationPermanent emigration

26 Department of Political and Social Sciences Figures 5 & 6: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention 26 Temporary emigrationPermanent emigration


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