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Term Insurance Market Update Kevin J. Borchert, CFA, FSA, MAAA VP, Life Reinsurance Pricing.

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Presentation on theme: "Term Insurance Market Update Kevin J. Borchert, CFA, FSA, MAAA VP, Life Reinsurance Pricing."— Presentation transcript:

1 Term Insurance Market Update Kevin J. Borchert, CFA, FSA, MAAA VP, Life Reinsurance Pricing

2 Agenda Environment and Market News Retail Market –Sales Results –Reinsurance placement –Rate trends Reinsurance Market –Market –LOC 2001 CSO –State Adoption –Impact Illustration – Reinsurance example

3 Our Environment Volatile equity markets Low interest rates Economic uncertainty / unemployment Threat of terrorist activity Retail market consolidation Reinsurance market shrinking

4 Market News – M&A / Player Exits AXA buys Mutual of NY ($1.5B) – 9/03 Manulife buys John Hancock ($11B) – 9/03 Allianz exits life reinsurance market – 9/03 A&L Re stops writing new business – 2/03 ERC exits life reinsurance market – 11/03 Scottish Re acquisition of ERC inforce ($.2B) – 10/03 Great West buys Canada Life ($7.1B) – 2/03

5 Market News – M&A / Player Exits Sun Life and Clarica merge – 12/02 Safeco Life to sell Life and Investment business – 9/03 RGA buys Allianz life reinsurance unit ($.3B) – 9/03 Banc One acquires Zurich Life ($.5B)– 5/03 October 2003: Insurance industry sheds 2,000 jobs Expect continued consolidation

6 Retail Market Sales Results US Individual Life Sales – AM Best Aggregates & Averages Slight gains year-over-year until : AM Best new sales up slightly; LIMRA up 14% thru Q3, 2002

7 Retail Market What is your expected annual growth rate in term sales over the next 5 years? –Average consensus is 8-10% from market Significant increase in 20 YT plans sales mix over the last 4 years (17% -> 35%) Short duration and ART plan share has fallen off (45%-> 26%) Return of premium plans gaining share

8 Retail Market Pricing Top retail players pricing trends from > 2003: Premium ChangeMin / Max 10 YT-4%0% / -22% 15 YT-5%+3 / -18% 20 YT-5%+3 / -23% 30 YT-7%0% / -30+%

9 Reinsurance Market Competitive Landscape Changing –financials –Ratings –Market Exits Reinsurer exits and retro consolidation LOC: Cost/ Capacity Inforce Market Increase in PC&D/ Private Label Solutions

10 Reinsurance Market Sales Results US Life Reinsurance Recurring New Business 2002 volume almost seven times 1992 volume 22% CAGR

11 New Business Utilizing Reinsurance US Life Reinsurance Recurring New Business as percent of Directly Written Business Percent reinsured continues to grow Growth rate slowed after 1998

12 Reinsurance Players *2002 ERC portfolio and recurring includes significant volume assumed from AUL *2001 Ordinary portfolio amount includes $470,093 assumed from Lincoln Re Source: Munich Survey

13 Reinsurance Players Mid 1990s: –Nearly 30 companies active in US life reinsurance market. –Top 6 players have 60% of market share –Approximately 20 reinsurers had at least a 2% share accounting for 90% of market By 2002: Reinsurance market tripled from 1995 –Less than 20 active reinsurers. –Top 6 account for 75-80% of market share –Top 10 companies account for 90% of market

14 Why are firms exiting Life Reinsurance? Financial distress Lack of appropriate scale Capital relief Business considered non-core => Becoming difficult to diversify reinsurance pool

15 Reinsurance Concerns Letter of credit costs rising (30%) short term LOC capacity requirements Retro market consolidating Retail market delaying product re-pricing 8+ reinsurance players from 5 years ago have either merged, exited, disappeared Decreased credit quality / ratings for remaining reinsurance players

16 Reinsurer Ratings (As of 11/03) Reinsurer:S&P Rating: General Cologne ReAAA Swiss ReAA Transamerica ReAA ING Re (US)AA HanoverAA- RGA ReAA- Munich ReA+ SCORBBB- Scottish ReBBB- Several no longer rated such as Gerling, Max Re, &Optimum Re

17 Reinsurance Letter Of Credit Capacity Estimates

18 Reinsurance Opportunities Inforce block pricing more rational Increased activity in product consulting and private label solutions Market share open for many pools due to financial difficulties and market participant exits Limited capacity and reinsurance outlets Upward pressure on rates due to LOC costs, LOC capacity, interest rates, RBC, etc.

19 Regulatory Issues 2001 CSO –State Adoption (source: ACLI) Adopted: NM (1/04), OK (1/04), TX (5/1/03), UT (7/1/03) Proposed 1/1/04: AL, DE, ID, IN, IA, MD, MA, MD, NE, OH, PA, TN Proposed 1/1/05: ND –Retail players planning 2001 plan introduction –Impact Example

20 2001 CSO Example Portfolio of 10/20/30 year level term with 60%/25%/15% sales mix Reserve strain is reduced but not eliminated Economic Reserves 2001 CSO Reserves 1980 CSO Reserves

21 2001 CSO Impact Reserve redundancy still significant Industry financing capacity still an issue Reserve pattern hump

22 2001 CSO Pricing Impact Overall portfolio allowance change minimal (<1%) using constant target ROIs Longer duration products result in more significant change –Reserve credit impact –Time value of cost savings Preferred classes absorb larger declines in allowances –Improvement in nonsmoker mortality –Shorter periods of deficiency reserves under 2001 CSO

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