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National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Seth Binau Dan Hawblitzel NOAA/NWS Wilmington OH June 23 2010 TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events.

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Presentation on theme: "National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Seth Binau Dan Hawblitzel NOAA/NWS Wilmington OH June 23 2010 TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Seth Binau Dan Hawblitzel NOAA/NWS Wilmington OH June TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events

2 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH OutlineOutline Overview of ILN TDWR networkOverview of ILN TDWR network Severe cases caught by TDWR, but not 88DSevere cases caught by TDWR, but not 88D –Height above ground level –Viewing angle –Temporal resolution Hints of severe weather occurring on 88D dataHints of severe weather occurring on 88D data

3 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH TDWR Overview – Locations WDTB TDWR Training – Part One

4 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH TDWR Strengths/Limitations Strengths Higher resolution dataHigher resolution data –Temporal and spatial 1 minute volume scans1 minute volume scans Usually situated near major airports/metropolitan areas providing excellent coverage of lower troposphere near population centersUsually situated near major airports/metropolitan areas providing excellent coverage of lower troposphere near population centers Limitations 5cm wavelength leads to significant attenuation5cm wavelength leads to significant attenuation Missing radialsMissing radials Significant range foldingSignificant range folding Limited user controlLimited user control Dealiasing failuresDealiasing failures Data still extremely useful despite these shortcomings!Data still extremely useful despite these shortcomings! WDTB TDWR Training – Part One

5 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH TDWR Locations – WFO ILN A nearly ideal setupA nearly ideal setup 3 TDWRs3 TDWRs –TCVG (Cincinnati) –TDAY (Dayton) –TCMH (Columbus) Cover nearly all of the ILN forecast area with VCP80 dataCover nearly all of the ILN forecast area with VCP80 data –One volume scan/minute –Redundancy if 88-D fails

6 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH TDWR Locations – WFO ILN 90% of CWA covered by at least one TDWR90% of CWA covered by at least one TDWR 49 of 52 counties49 of 52 counties 20% of CWA covered by two TDWRs20% of CWA covered by two TDWRs 65% of CWA closer to TDWR than 88D65% of CWA closer to TDWR than 88D

7 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Examples To Follow Falmouth KY Downburst Ripley IN Tornado Darke County Straight-Line Winds Mason KY Downburst

8 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ)

9 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ) TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity LoopTCVG 0.1 SRM Loop KILN 0.5 Reflectivity LoopKILN 0.5 SRM Loop

10 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ)

11 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Evident on TDWR: Tight spin-up as convergence acts on kink in storm-scale boundaryEvident on TDWR: Tight spin-up as convergence acts on kink in storm-scale boundary Evident on 88D: Boundary, convergenceEvident on 88D: Boundary, convergence Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar

12 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May

13 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0045ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0047Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0045ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0047Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

14 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0047Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0047Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0047ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0047Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

15 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0049Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0051Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0049ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0051Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

16 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0051Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0051Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0051ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0051Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

17 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0056Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0056Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0056ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0056Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

18 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0100Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0100Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0100ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0100Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

19 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) – May TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0104Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0104Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0104ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0104Z ~350ft AGL~3000ft AGL

20 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Darke County (OH) Straight-Line Winds May Evident on TDWR: Intensifying RIJ; near-ground divergence; ground-relative velocity >70 ktEvident on TDWR: Intensifying RIJ; near-ground divergence; ground-relative velocity >70 kt Evident on 88D: deepening/strengthening MARC (weak!)Evident on 88D: deepening/strengthening MARC (weak!)

21 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Classic Pulse Severe/Downburst Sounding

22 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2308Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

23 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2309ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2309ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

24 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2310ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2310ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

25 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2311ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2311ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

26 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2312ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2312ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

27 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2313ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2313ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

28 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2314ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2314ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

29 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2315ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2317Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2315ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 2317Z ~750ft AGL~4200ft AGL

30 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on TDWR: Near-ground divergence associated with downburst; 1-min of 40-kt VEvident on TDWR: Near-ground divergence associated with downburst; 1-min of 40-kt V

31 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

32 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

33 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

34 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

35 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

36 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH May – Falmouth KY Downburst Evident on 88D: Descending core aloftEvident on 88D: Descending core aloft

37 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0033ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0033ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

38 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0034ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0034ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

39 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0035ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0035ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

40 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0036ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0036ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

41 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0037ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0037ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

42 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0038ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0038ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

43 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0039ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0039ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

44 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010 TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0040ZKILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0040ZKILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z ~800ft AGL~4100ft AGL

45 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Evident on TDWR:Evident on TDWR: 60+ kt winds 800 ft AGL 24-kt winds 2400 ft AGL at time of damage 12 min AFTER damage 60+ kt winds 800 ft AGL 24-kt winds 2400 ft AGL at time of damage 12 min AFTER damage Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010

46 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Evident on 88D:Evident on 88D: 25-kt MARC at 9300 ft AGL Almost no MARC at 12 min BEFORE damage time of damage Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010

47 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH ConclusionsConclusions Low level scans of TDWR reveal much goes on below lowest 0.5 scan of 88DLow level scans of TDWR reveal much goes on below lowest 0.5 scan of 88D Tornado spin upsTornado spin ups –May have to rely on conceptual model –Upward tilting/stretching acting on storm-scale boundary (landspout mechanism) eg storm merger + kink in boundaryeg storm merger + kink in boundary –Warn on conceptual model even if no rotation?

48 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH ConclusionsConclusions Highest winds at base of downburst may be significantly below radar beamHighest winds at base of downburst may be significantly below radar beam Must rely on indicators before core hits the groundMust rely on indicators before core hits the ground MARCMARC –Poor viewing angle? –Consider trends

49 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH SummarySummary There are numerous benefits (and a few drawbacks) of TDWR dataThere are numerous benefits (and a few drawbacks) of TDWR data A number of questions are now being asked by the WFO staff on…A number of questions are now being asked by the WFO staff on… –How do we want to integrate this into warning decision making? –How can we absorb 88-D data and 1-minute TDWR scans from multiple TDWRs? Information overload and decreased SA?Information overload and decreased SA?

50 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Summary (cont) How do we handle all of this data once we go to Dual-Pol?How do we handle all of this data once we go to Dual-Pol? How much do we buy in to the extremely high resolution velocity signals when we know velocity dealiasing etc is a TDWR weakness?How much do we buy in to the extremely high resolution velocity signals when we know velocity dealiasing etc is a TDWR weakness? D2D Screen real-estate?D2D Screen real-estate? Can we act on 1-minute volume scans thereby increase our LT significantly?Can we act on 1-minute volume scans thereby increase our LT significantly? –Downbursts etc

51 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Bottom Line: Many small-scale tornado and wind events will go undetected on 88D data Even IF event is detected (eg TDWR), lead time will be very little if not negative What do we do to anticipate severe winds or non-descending tornadoes?

52 National Weather Service Wilmington, OH Thanks!Thanks!


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