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TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events

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Presentation on theme: "TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events"— Presentation transcript:

1 TDWR Detection of Small-Scale Thunderstorm Events
Seth Binau Dan Hawblitzel NOAA/NWS Wilmington OH June Bee-now

2 Outline Overview of ILN TDWR network
Severe cases caught by TDWR, but not 88D Height above ground level Viewing angle Temporal resolution Hints of severe weather occurring on 88D data

3 TDWR Overview – Locations
WDTB TDWR Training – Part One

4 TDWR Strengths/Limitations
Higher resolution data Temporal and spatial 1 minute volume scans Usually situated near major airports/metropolitan areas providing excellent coverage of lower troposphere near population centers 5cm wavelength leads to significant attenuation Missing radials Significant range folding Limited user control Dealiasing failures Data still extremely useful despite these shortcomings! WDTB TDWR Training – Part One

5 TDWR Locations – WFO ILN
A nearly ideal setup 3 TDWRs TCVG (Cincinnati) TDAY (Dayton) TCMH (Columbus) Cover nearly all of the ILN forecast area with VCP80 data One volume scan/minute Redundancy if 88-D fails

6 TDWR Locations – WFO ILN
90% of CWA covered by at least one TDWR 49 of 52 counties 20% of CWA covered by two TDWRs 65% of CWA closer to TDWR than 88D ~65% of CWA closer to TDWR than 88D

7 Examples To Follow Ripley IN Tornado Darke County Straight-Line Winds
Mason KY Downburst Falmouth KY Downburst

8 Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar 8 2009
Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ)

9 Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar 8 2009
TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity Loop TCVG 0.1 SRM Loop KILN 0.5 Reflectivity Loop KILN 0.5 SRM Loop Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ)

10 Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar 8 2009
Courtesy: Charles Woodrum (PBZ)

11 Ripley (IN) Tornado – Mar 8 2009
Evident on TDWR: Tight spin-up as convergence acts on kink in storm-scale boundary Evident on 88D: Boundary, convergence

12 Darke County (OH) – May

13 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0045Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0047Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0045Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0047Z

14 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0047Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0047Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0047Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0047Z

15 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0049Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0051Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0049Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0051Z

16 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0051Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0051Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0051Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0051Z

17 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0056Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0056Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0056Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0056Z

18 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0100Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0100Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0100Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0100Z

19 Darke County (OH) – May 7 2010 ~350ft AGL ~3000ft AGL
TDAY 0.3 Reflectivity – 0104Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0104Z TDAY 0.3 Velocity – 0104Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0104Z

20 Darke County (OH) Straight-Line Winds May 7 2010
Evident on TDWR: Intensifying RIJ; near-ground divergence; ground-relative velocity >70 kt Evident on 88D: deepening/strengthening MARC (weak!)

21 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Classic Pulse Severe/Downburst Sounding

22 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2308Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2308Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z

23 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2309Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2309Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z

24 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2310Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2308Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2310Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2308Z

25 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2311Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2311Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z

26 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2312Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2312Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z

27 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2313Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2313Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z

28 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2314Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2313Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2314Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2313Z

29 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
~750ft AGL ~4200ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 2315Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 2317Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 2315Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 2317Z

30 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on TDWR: Near-ground divergence associated with downburst; 1-min of 40-kt V

31 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

32 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

33 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

34 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

35 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

36 May 28 2010 – Falmouth KY Downburst
Evident on 88D: Descending core aloft

37 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0033Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0033Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z

38 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0034Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0034Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z

39 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0035Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0034Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0035Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0034Z

40 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0036Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0036Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z

41 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0037Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0037Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z

42 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0038Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0038Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z

43 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0039Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0039Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z

44 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
~800ft AGL ~4100ft AGL TCVG 0.1 Reflectivity – 0040Z KILN 0.5 Reflectivity – 0038Z TCVG 0.1 Velocity – 0040Z KILN 0.5 Velocity – 0038Z

45 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
Evident on TDWR: 60+ kt winds 800 ft AGL kt winds 2400 ft AGL at time of damage min AFTER damage

46 Mason County KY Downburst – June 15, 2010
Evident on 88D: 25-kt MARC at 9300 ft AGL Almost no MARC at 12 min BEFORE damage time of damage

47 Conclusions Low level scans of TDWR reveal much goes on below lowest 0.5 scan of 88D Tornado “spin ups” May have to rely on conceptual model Upward tilting/stretching acting on storm-scale boundary (landspout mechanism) eg storm merger + “kink” in boundary Warn on conceptual model even if no rotation?

48 Conclusions Highest winds at base of downburst may be significantly below radar beam Must rely on indicators before core hits the ground MARC Poor viewing angle? Consider trends

49 Summary There are numerous benefits (and a few drawbacks) of TDWR data
A number of questions are now being asked by the WFO staff on… How do we want to integrate this into warning decision making? How can we absorb 88-D data and 1-minute TDWR scans from multiple TDWRs? Information overload and decreased SA?

50 Summary (con’t) How do we handle all of this data once we go to Dual-Pol? How much do we “buy in” to the extremely high resolution velocity signals when we know velocity dealiasing etc is a TDWR weakness? D2D Screen real-estate? Can we act on 1-minute volume scans thereby increase our LT significantly? Downbursts etc

51 Bottom Line: Many small-scale tornado and wind events will go undetected on 88D data Even IF event is detected (eg TDWR), lead time will be very little if not negative What do we do to anticipate severe winds or non-descending tornadoes?

52 Seth.Binau@noaa.gov Daniel.Hawblitzel@noaa.gov
Thanks!


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