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Risk Management or Do I Feel Lucky? Jack J. Ference, PMP ®, PMI-RMP ®

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Presentation on theme: "Risk Management or Do I Feel Lucky? Jack J. Ference, PMP ®, PMI-RMP ®"— Presentation transcript:

1 Risk Management or Do I Feel Lucky? Jack J. Ference, PMP ®, PMI-RMP ®

2 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 2 Presentation Outline Project Introduction and Background Risk Management Process –Risk Management Planning –Risk Identification –Risk Analysis Results from Process Benefits and Lessons Learned Questions

3 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 3 What this Project is About Photo clips from abcNews.com

4 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 4 Project Challenges Low to Moderate risk project Basic type of work had been done before, however, challenges included: –Completing project in four-year timeframe –Executing two concurrent field tests –Agreement upon system requirements/tests –Integration/testing of three standalone functions –Development of new capabilities –Collecting driving data in down economy –Varied project management culture within team

5 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 5 Project Timeline Nov 2005Nov 2006Nov 2008May 2010June 2008Feb 2009 Engineering Development Vehicles Prototype Vehicles Pilot Vehicles Extended Pilot Test FOT Data Collection Phase II – 24 months Phase I – 30 months Project Information Five-year Cooperative Agreement (80%-20%) Best-efforts cost reimbursable agreement Federal Funds $25.6M – Private Funds $7.4M Other Federal Partners – $7.9M Support Staff – $1.9M Phase I – $28.3M Phase II – $14.5M

6 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 6 Risk Management Process Plan Risk Management Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Monitor and Control Risks

7 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 7 Risk Management Planning Deciding your approach – how formal? Scaling effort to meet project needs/budget Showing value of process and obtaining buy-in Acknowledging training needs Writing, communicating and following the plan –Developing probability and impact definitions –Writing actionable risk statements –Selecting tools and processes –All needed to ensure consistency Following up, making adjustments, repeating processes

8 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 8 Probability and Impact Matrix

9 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 9 Risk Identification Phase II statement of work, schedule and project budget Phase I and past experience Tools and Techniques –Adobe® Acrobat fill-able Form/Workshop –Risk Breakdown Structure –Project-specific checklist –Interviewing

10 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 10 Risk Identification Worksheet

11 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 11 Risk Register – Part I

12 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 12 Risk Rating Form

13 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 13 Consensus Risk Rating

14 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 14 Risk Register – Part II

15 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 15 Risk Response Worksheet

16 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 16 Risk Radar®

17 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 17 Individual Risk Summary

18 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 18 Risk Radar® Reports

19 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 19 Risk Radar® Reports contd

20 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 20 Results from Process Risks avoided –Impact of model year change – Oct 2006 Identified risks realized –High false alarm rate for heavy truck platform – Oct 2007 –Impact of economy on conducting field test – Nov 2008-present Unidentified risks realized –Truck manufacturer leaves project – Aug 2007 –Test track closes abruptly – Nov 2007 –Phase II approval delayed – Dec 2007 (unknown-unknown) –Lead S/W engineer detained in China – Dec 2007 –Vehicle build cost over-run and schedule delay – Feb 2009 –Lead IT developer becomes ill while in India – Mar-Apr 2009 –Software development cost over-run – Apr 2009 –Supplier/Developer in Chapter 11 bankruptcy – May 2009

21 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 21 Benefits of Formal Process Improved project focus and team communications and coordination Provided framework for discussing project issues with emphasis on problem solving Brought the whole team together, creating a broader view of the project Discussion of risk became a regular part of program reviews

22 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 22 Lessons Learned To improve chance of success, risk management effort needs: –A Process Owner, team buy-in and cooperation –To be scaled to project needs, not be a burden –Consistent, open and honest process that is repeated Tendency to use past experience to judge risk and overlook associated new risks: –Vehicle build (cost over-run, schedule delay) –Database development delays affected other efforts –Data synchronization issues impacted test schedule

23 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 23 Resources 1.MITRE Risk Management website: 2.Mulcahy, R. P. Risk Management - Tricks of the Trade for Project Managers, Minneapolis, MN: RMC Publications, Inc., (2003). 3.Pritchard, Carl L. Risk Management Concepts and Guidance. 3rd Edition. Arlington, VA: ESI International, (2005). 4.Survey Monkey® website: 5.Risk Radar® website: Phone: (757) , ext. 310; H. Duncan 6.Defense Acquisition University: https://acc.dau.mil/rmhttps://acc.dau.mil/rm 7.Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK). Fourth Edition. Newton Square, PA: Project Management Institute, (2009) 8.Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Newton Square, PA: Project Management Institute, (2009) 9.The Risk Doctor website:

24 October 26, 2009PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD 24 Questions? Jack J. Ference, PMP ®, PMI-RMP ® U.S. DOT/National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Advanced Vehicle Safety Research Intelligent Technologies Research Division 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, W Washington, DC (202)


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