1. GET OUT OF THE CAR! ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS TO CHANGE THE TRANSPORT REGIME Gerardo Marletto DEIR/CRENoS - University of Sassari CREI – University of Rome Roma Tre 2nd International TEMPO Conference

2. Main question How can we achieve policy change for sustainable transport? My three main arguments 1. I do not agree with mainstream economics. Reaching sustainable transport is not just a matter of promoting modal and technological shift by using economic incentives 2. Mobility is dominated by the car regime. Policies for sustainable transport should aim at overcoming the inertial dynamics of the existing car regime, and creating a new regime of sustainable mobility 3. Actors and institutions are the crucial point. Existing actors and institutions support the status quo New actors are weak and scattered and new institutions must be established (Technology is not the crucial point) Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime 2nd International TEMPO Conference

3. TOPICS 1. Prologue: the long century of the car (1890-20??) 2. The car is a regime 3. Scenarios of transport regimes 4. Epilogue: 2028 - in memoriam of motowns 5. A checklist for policy change 2nd International TEMPO Conference Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

4. 1. PROLOGUE: THE LONG CENTURY OF THE CAR (1890-20??) 2nd International TEMPO Conference Find the differences! Mulberry Street (Little Italy), NY Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

5. 1. PROLOGUE: THE LONG CENTURY OF THE CAR (1890-20??) 2nd International TEMPO Conference 1916: President Wilson signs the first Federal Aid Road Act, creating the new Bureau of Public Roads 1903: The Electric Vehicle Company and ten petrol car firms create the Association of Licensed Automobile Manufacturers 1920s: GM take control and dismantle electric tram systems 1953: Engine Charles Wilson, President of GM, is named Secretary of Defence 1996: the 1990 Californian mandate for zero-emission cars is postponed by five years (and then further delayed) Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

6. 2. THE CAR IS A REGIME 2nd International TEMPO Conference Constituents of the car regime Political institutions (tacit and explicit rules) Norms: regulations and policies which favour the car Political habits: transport policy is influenced by the car industry Political discourse: the car as freedom Technologies (artefacts and knowledge) The car and its dominant design The built environment (cities tailored to the car) Markets (production, consumption, finance, etc.) Investments on productive capacity High expenditure on car advertising Consumers prefer the car Actors Core-actors: car industry, oil industry Non-core actors: road builders and managers, urban developers Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

7. 2nd International TEMPO Conference 3. SCENARIOS OF TRANSPORT REGIMES Likelihood Sustainability CAR REGIME ELECTRICITY REGIME ECO-CITY REGIME CAR REGIME TRANSITION PATHWAY RECONFIGURATION (Integration of new non- core actors) INSTITUTIONAL DRIVER AND ACTORS TRANSPORT POLICY IS INFLUENCED BY THE CAR INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKETS HYBRID CAR ELECTRIC CAR ELECTRICITY REGIME TRANSITION PATHWAY SUBSTITION (New core actors emerge after a battle with old core actors) INSTITUTIONAL DRIVER AND ACTORS TRANSPORT AND ENERGY POLICIES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKETS PLUG-IN HYBRID CAR V2G ELECTRIC CAR ECO-CITY REGIME TRANSITION PATHWAY DE-ALIGNMENT and RE- ALIGNMENT (A coalition of new core actors support a new vision of urban mobility) INSTITUTIONAL DRIVER AND ACTORS AN INTEGRATED AND MULTILEVEL URBAN POLICY IS INFLUENCED BY A COALITION OF NGOs, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND INDUSTRIES TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKETS NEW URBANISM + 3Bs + ELECTRIC PROPULSION Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

8. 2nd International TEMPO Conference 4. EPILOGUE: IN MEMORIAM OF MOTOWNS 2028: an European vision - Basic data Transport & Environment: CO2 emissions from transport and km by car are below 2000 level Urban structure: 63% of medium and large cities have adopted a 3-levels urban/transport system Industrial structure: Less than 10 global players compete in the market of integrated sustainable urban transport systems (Toyota-BYD-JR; GE-GM-Ballard; AV; Better Place; etc.) Some car manufacturers stopped producing cars (Fiat-Chrysler; Volkswagen-Audi; etc.) 3-Levels urban transport system Level 1 - Decarbonised (high density areas) Only soft mobility + electric public and shared transport Level 2 - Zone 30 (high density areas) As in decarbonised areas + electric cars Level 3 - City gates (at the border between high density and dispersed areas) Public transport nodes + parkings for IC-cars + recharge and battery-swap stations for electric cars Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

9. 2nd International TEMPO Conference 4. EPILOGUE: IN MEMORIAM OF MOTOWNS 2028: an European vision – Policy backcasting 1.Framework regulations (2012): 2.The Ecocities programes (2010 - 2017 and 2018 - 2025) 3. The Alessandro Volta initiative (2015 - ) Reg. 12/2012: new urban developments are admitted only around main public transport nodes Reg. 112/2012 and 113/2012: car advertising and incentives to buy cars are prohibited Top-down criteria: 3-levels urban planning + 3Bs transport planning preference to plans proposed by coalitions of local actors Bottom-up proposals: more than 800 local plans benefited from EU co-funding Phase 1.1 (2015 - 2019): network of more than 60 firms and research bodies goal: develop an integrated electric urban mobility platform Phase 1.2 (2020 - 2022): 35 pilot cities goal: experiment, improve and standardise the AV platform Phase 2 (2023 - ): industrial consortium AV (following the Airbus model) goal: worldwide commercialisation of the AV platform Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

10. 2nd International TEMPO Conference 5. A CHECKLIST FOR POLICY CHANGE 1. Act for radical change Integrate all relevant policy dimensions: environment, energy, industry, transport, urban planning Commit a very large amount of financial resources Implement long lasting initiatives Review initiatives on the basis of interim results 2. Act with a twofold aim Destabilise the car regime Create the eco-city regime Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

11. 2nd International TEMPO Conference 4. A CHECKLIST FOR POLICY CHANGE 3. Act on (core) actors Deligitimise core actors of the car regime and reduce their power Legitimise and empower a coalition of new core actors 4. Act on institutions: Political discourses Criticise the car as freedom Foster sustainable cities for sustainable mobility 5. Act on institutions: Political habits Criticise the influence of the car industry Support the involvement of new stakeholders 6. Act on institutions: Norms Implement policies to discourage the production and use of cars Implement policies to boost the production and use of integrated systems of sustainable mobility Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime

12. 2nd International TEMPO Conference MANY THANKS! marletto@uniss.it...and if all else fails... …we still have the final solution… Gerardo Marletto – Get out of the car! Actors and institutions to change the transport regime