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Rainfall Variability, Food Security and Human Mobility Project Ghana case study report National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop 4th October 2012, Coconut.

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Presentation on theme: "Rainfall Variability, Food Security and Human Mobility Project Ghana case study report National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop 4th October 2012, Coconut."— Presentation transcript:

1 Rainfall Variability, Food Security and Human Mobility Project Ghana case study report National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop 4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra Edward Salifu Mahama & Christina Rademacher-Schulz

2 Overview of presentation 1) Rainfalls project overview 2) Ghana case study information 3) Characteristics of survey respondents 4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data 5) Agricultural & livestock production 6) Problems of the agricultural sector 7) Impact diagram 8) Food insecurity & coping 9) Migration 10) Conclusions 11) Policy recommendations 12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes

3 Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn & Amsterdam Sponsors: Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Thailand Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale), Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members Tamale/Wa 1. Where the Rain Falls project

4 1. Research Objectives & Questions Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility focus of field work Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall variability & food insecurity Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food insecurity? Livelihood Better understand complex interrelations and interplays through fieldwork…

5 1. Objectives & Questions Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a major driver of human migration and displacement in coming decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040). Develop an agent based model on migration decisions Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes run by CARE International in four countries Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and regional discussions about human mobility.

6 2. Ghana Case Study Nadowli District Population: 95,000 (2009) Economy: 85% agriculture 14% commerce/service 1% industry Guinea Savannah zone 1 rainy season (April-October), 1036mm/a (1960-2011) 1 agricultural season Upper West Region poorest region in Ghana Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area October/November 2011 Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews

7 2. Nadowli District Map with research communities (District boundaries in 2011) Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies, Wa, Ghana, 2012.

8 2. Livelihood in Takpo area Main characteristics Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale Economic activties of households agriculture livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle) Pito brewing Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.) Charcoal processing & sale Migration Fishing Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)

9 3. Background characteristics of survey respondents Name of communityPopulation of males Population of females Total population Mantari7973152 Nanville5106431153 Takpo115912292388 Zupiri7898176 Population of selected research communities Source: Population and Housing Census 2000. Name of communityTotal number of HHsNumber of HHs selected Mantari249 Nanville19052 Takpo33288 Zupiri349 Total580158 Selected households (HH) and household sizes Source: Household survey, 2011.

10 4. Perceptions of rainfall variability and their effects The climate has become less predictable The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May) The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts) Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed. (Man from Zupiri) Effect on economic situation of household % Lower crop yields92.4 Increasing food price37.3 Less livestock production36.7 Others1.9 Substitute Market products1.3 Effects of changing rainfall on economic situation of the household, multiple answers Source: Household survey, 2011 Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project Dry spell probability highest in North-West Ghana (1961-99) Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001) Increase in extreme weather patterns (Scenario A1B, 2011-30) Source: Laux 2009

11 4. Annual rainfall amounts, Wa Station, 1953-2011 Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011. Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.

12 4. Comparison of local perceptions and bio-physical observations Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007, Van de Giessen et al., 2010.

13 5. Agricultural production Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg). Source: MoFA 2012 Farmers perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the past years compared to the past Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09

14 5. Price development of crops at Wa market Price development for millet, Wa market, 2005-2009 Source: MoFa price data. Price development for groundnuts, Wa market, 2005-2009 Source: MoFa price data.

15 5. Livestock production in Nadowli District and the research communities Livestock CattleSheepGoatPigsPoultry 20084,1578,2178,9359,87118,015 20095,3579,4579,9439,96722,234 20105,9879,90910,00910,08743,987 Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010 Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 ( Livestock production in four research communities in Nadowli District, 2011 Source: Household survey, October 2011.

16 6. Problems of the Agricultural sector Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan: Poor storage facilities Erratic/unreliable rainfall Inadequate credit facilities Poor farming technology Inadequate access to extension service Inadequate irrigation facilities Infertile soils Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56

17 7. Impact diagram (PRA session) Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme) Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.

18 8. Food insecurity & coping Less Intense ActivityIntense Activity Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure) Activities / characteristics JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Farming (planting & harvesting) Fire wood fetching Harvesting of economic trees Food shortage Food abundance Migration Lean season Lean season nadibo What shall we eat? By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff. We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily. (45-year-old household head from Nanville)

19 Food insecurity and lack of money during the year Source: Household survey, 2011. 8. Food insecurity 71-year-old man from Nanville: My children need to supplement household food needs by migrating to find money.

20 8. Coping strategies STRATEGY Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products) 28.7% Reduced food consumption 21.3% Diversify activities to increase income 14.3% Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal) 14.3% Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops, fertilizer) 10.9% Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs) 8.1% Reduce Expenditure (goods, health) 1.9% Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance Source: Household survey 2011 Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family s budget with their small-scale processing and selling activities This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober and calm. They don t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us (Woman in Takpo).

21 9. Migration in Takpo area Source: HH survey, October 2011 Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad Source: Household survey, 2011 Main activities (first migration): 52% Farming 14% Mining 9% Education Occasional remittances and food support HHs usage of remittances: food consumption consumer goods purchase health care, education & investment Indicators HH with migration experience77% Number of migrants per HH1.6 Economic migrants83% Educational migrants9% Sex of migrants Male69% Female31% Average age of migrants (first trip)23 Education level of migrants (years of schooling) 4 Marital status of migrants Single40% Married53% Other7% Type of migration (first trip) Seasonal (< 6 months)39% Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)25% Permanent (> 2years)36% Migration status Current68% Returned32%

22 9. Reasons for migration Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) Reasons: social/personal economic/food security natural/environmental Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors

23 9. Changing migration patterns? Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it contributes to food security Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals: strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon times most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October) Possible reasons: acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy season farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low harvest What do rainfall and crop production data tell us? 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production More research is needed

24 Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change & changes in rainfall variability Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock rearing Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification Most households are below the national poverty line Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the next havest People developed various coping and adaptation strategies Coping strategies of HHs sell of livestock reduce food consumption increasing small-scale commercial production Seasonal migration 10. Conclusions 1

25 10. Conclusions 2 Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food insecurity? Perception of migration normal income strategy (75%) and/or strategy only in times of crisis (36%) Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy season 2011 as a risk management strategy Climate Variability + other stressors

26 11. Policy recommendations – research participants expectations Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies: Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields Fertiliser provision Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns) Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs

27 11. Policy recommendations (local/district/regional level) 1.Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to the specific needs and challenges of local people. 2.Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing, drought and flood resilient crops. 3.Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting, contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.). 4.Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies. 5.Conscious efforts must be made to increase womens access to fertile land for crop production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security. 6.Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs. 7.The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.

28 12. District level stakeholder workshop outcomes Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their communities Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing) found better than tractors The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area. One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of irrigation dams Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity General conclusion: Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities

29 Thank you for your attention!

30 UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 53113 Bonn, Germany Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200 Fax: + 49-228-815-0299 e-mail: Contacts: Christina Rademacher-Schulz e-mail: Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale e-mail:

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