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The demography of agricultural supply and demand Natalie Jackson © Professor of Demography Director, Population Studies Centre >> National Institute of.

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Presentation on theme: "The demography of agricultural supply and demand Natalie Jackson © Professor of Demography Director, Population Studies Centre >> National Institute of."— Presentation transcript:

1 The demography of agricultural supply and demand Natalie Jackson © Professor of Demography Director, Population Studies Centre >> National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis

2 Key points Older average age of farmers well known –but seemingly invisible in debate over who may/ can / should buy NZ farms, farm prices etc Industrys market focus is on size and growth rates of national populations –Yet markets are driven less by size than composition (market segment - age, sex, culture, income, labour force/marital status etc) Population ageing will significantly affect both 2

3 Population Ageing Internal momentum of decline Internal momentum of increase 3

4 What has the ageing of farmers got to do with foreign ownership? Who may (can/should) buy NZ farms?

5 Stats NZ Customised Database Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers N=38,634; av 48 years 5

6 Stats NZ Customised Database Dairy Farmers (2006) N=33,507; av 41 years 6

7 Stats NZ Customised Database Other Livestock Farmers (2006) N=9,303; av 47.5 years 7

8 Who you gonna call? 8Stats NZ Estimated Resident Population 2009, Waikato and NZ (unshaded) MalesFemales Demographic Dividend

9 Where are you farming? Matamata-Piako (16.5% 65+)Waipa (15.0% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)9

10 NZ: TAs with negative entry/exit ratios 10 39% 36%

11 Enter: a demographically tight labour market Australia

12 Succession planning is critically needed Who may buy NZ farms? Who can ? Who [maybe] should ? 12

13 What has population ageing got to do with farming markets? Who consumes what? 13

14 Who eats ice-cream? Who eats beef? Lets imagine.. That kids eat most of the ice-creams ** That adults eat most of the beef **** 14

15 Chinas age structure Source: US Census Bureau International Database

16 Chinas age structure Source: US Census Bureau International Database

17 Projected Population of China 17 Source: US Census Bureau International Database

18 Assumption: 2 ltr per capita per year Ice-cream consumption in China projected by crude and age-weighted rates

19 Assumption: 2 kg per capita per year Beef consumption in China projected by crude and age-weighted rates

20 India (2000 and 2010) Source: US Census Bureau International Database

21 India (2020 and 2030)

22 India will overtake China 22 Source: US Census Bureau International Database

23 Assumption: 2 ltr per capita per year Ice-cream consumption in India projected by crude and age-weighted rates 23

24 Assumption: 2 kg per capita per year Beef consumption in India projected by crude and age-weighted rates 24

25 Japan…. 25 Source: US Census Bureau International Database

26 Russia…* 26 Source: *as defined by US Census Bureau International Database

27 Projected Population of Russia* 27 Source: *as defined by US Census Bureau International Database

28 Summary Pay attention to age structure. Population ageing changes the consumption patterns of the population; slows, then stops growth –In the short to medium term, significant growth at middle to older ages assured –Need to follow the target / tailor the product Population ageing means competition for labour and industry participation of the young –Labour supply will be short – and cost more –The lack of sufficient numbers of young farmers in the pipeline needs to be considered when deliberating who may/can/should buy NZ farms.. 28

29 Population Studies Centre / National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Thankyou 29

30 Why do populations age and stop growing? Increasing life expectancy causes more babies to live ~ eventually they turn into more elderly Declining fertility rates cause the base of the population pyramid to compress >> the top to expand Eventually the elderly outnumber the young, growth slows and stops because deaths first match, then exceed, births 30

31 Assumptions (Ice-Cream) (Beef)Ice-CreamBeef Ice-Cream (%)Beef (%) TOTAL100


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