Presentation on theme: "PARTIAL BUDGETING Dr. Paul D. Mitchell Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin, Madison WI."— Presentation transcript:
PARTIAL BUDGETING Dr. Paul D. Mitchell Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin, Madison WI
Goal of This Presentation 1.Explain purpose of partial budgets 2.Illustrate their structure and use 3.Give some examples
Partial Budget Purpose To estimate the net benefit from a small change to a farm operation in order to guide a farm decision Fine tune your current operation: Hold all else fixed and evaluate effect of a small change Partial Budget: focuses only on the things that change Do not budget each enterprise completely, but build on enterprise budgets Other names that are essentially the same: Marginal Analysis or Incremental Analysis
Simple Examples Plant rootworm Bt corn or conventional corn with a soil insecticide Plant a little more corn and a little less soybeans Rent an additional 100 acres for corn Buy combine or continue custom hiring Sell current tractor and buy a bigger one Soil test for N or just use credits/guess
Partial Budget Basic Idea Partial Budget: Answer these 4 questions and then do calculations Net Benefit = Benefits – Costs Benefits: 1) What will be the new or added revenues? 2) What costs will be reduced or eliminated? Costs: 3) What will be the new or added costs? 4) What revenues will be reduced or lost?
Partial Budget: Define the change analyzed BenefitsCosts Additional Revenues What will be the new or added revenues? Additional Costs What will be the new or added costs? Costs Reduced What costs will be reduced or eliminated? Revenues Reduced What revenues will be reduced or lost? Total BenefitsTotal Costs Net Benefit
Planter Example Look at buying a planter for 1000 acres of corn and soybean versus using custom hiring of the planting What will be the new or added revenues? Increased yields due to more timely planting What costs will be reduced or eliminated? No longer pay for custom planting What will be the new or added costs? Fixed and variable costs of owning a planter What revenues will be reduced or lost? I cant think of any
Buy planter vs. custom hire for planting 1000 acres corn-soybeans (500 acres each) Additional Revenues What will be the new or added revenues? Higher yields with more timely planting Additional Costs What will be the new or added costs? Fixed and variable costs of owning a planter Costs Reduced What costs will be reduced or eliminated? No longer pay cost for custom hire Revenues Reduced What revenues will be reduced or lost? Cant think of any Total BenefitsTotal Costs Net Benefit
Buy planter vs. custom hire for planting 1000 acres (500 each) corn-soybean Additional Revenues 3 bu corn x $4.00/bu x 500 ac = $6,000 1 bu soybeans x $10/bu x 500 ac = $5,000 Additional Costs corn $19.11/ac x 500 ac = $9,555 soybeans $20.38/ac x 500 ac = $10,190 Costs Reduced Custom corn planting = $15/ac x 500 ac = $7,500 Custom soybean planting = $16/ac x 500 ac = $8,000 Revenues Reduced none Total Benefits$26,500Total Costs$19,745 Net Benefit$6,755
Planter Example Only focused on costs and revenues that change Purely made up numbers for illustration Estimate 3 more bu of corn and 1 more bu of soybeans due to more timely planting Corn = 1% loss/day in WI after May 8 Soybeans: 0.25/bu/day in IA study Estimate cost of owning and operating a planter: Use Fast and Simple Method for 100 acres to get corn = $19.11/ac, soybeans = $20.38/ac Custom rates: estimates from online WI Custom Rate Guide
Planter Example: What if real Look at your records: How late was your custom planter over the last several years? Estimate the average yield loss you suffered Several equations for corn and soybeans on web Cost to own and operate planter Used the Fast and Simple Method: %20Method.pdf %20Method.pdf Is $6,755 ($6.76/ac) enough to justify the added hassle of owning and operating a planter?
Think Break Suppose you are a corn-soybean farmer who currently custom hires all combining. You are thinking of buying a combine. Do a partial budget analysis of a Combine Purchase vs. Custom Hire decision Needed assumptions/information and questions are given in the next slide
Think Break: Combine Purchase vs. Custom Hire Corn acres = 2,000; Farm crop acres 4,000 Custom Rate = $25/ac Scale Factor = (33.026/acres) 1% yield increase with more timely harvest Average yield = 150 bu/ac; Price = $4/bu 1) What will be the new or added revenues? 2) What costs will be reduced or eliminated? 3) What will be the new or added costs? 4) What revenues will be reduced or lost? 5) Whats the net benefit?
Another Example Add 50 beef cows to your cow-calf herd and convert 100 acres from grain to forage 1) What will be the new or added revenues? 2) What costs will be reduced or eliminated? 3) What will be the new or added costs? 4) What revenues will be reduced or lost? 5) Whats the net benefit?
Revenue Benefits 1) What will be the new or added revenues? Sell more steers, heifers, and cull cows 46 calves (92% efficiency) Save 5 heifers as replacements (10% cull rate) 23 steer calves: 500 lbs x $0.85/lb = $9, heifer calves: 460 lbs x $0.80/lb = $6,624 5 cull cows $500 each = $2,500 Total = $18,899
Cost Benefits 2) What costs will be reduced or eliminated? Variable inputs used for grain production Fertilizer, seed, pesticides, etc.: $5,350 Labor: $1,500 Variable machinery costs: $1,000 Interest on variable 6% = $470 Total = $8,320
Cost Costs 3) What will be the new or added costs? Fixed costs Interest on cows and bulls = $2,500 Bull depreciation = $300 Variable costs Labor = $600, Vet and health = $500 Feed/Hay = $2,000, Pasture fertilizer = $1,500 Hauling and Miscellaneous = $500 Interest on variable 6% = $300 Total = $8,200
Revenue Costs 4) What revenues will be reduced or lost? Grain production from 100 acres Corn: 110 bu/ac x $2.00/bu x 100 ac = $22,000 Soybeans: 30 bu/ac x $5.00/bu x 100 ac = $15,000 Use half of each, since 2 year rotation Total = ½ ($22,000 + $15,000) = $18,500
Partial Budget: Add 50 cows to cow-calf operation and convert 100 acres to forage BenefitsCosts Additional Revenues 23 Steer calves, 18 heifer calves and 5 cull cows = $18,899 Additional Costs Fixed and variable costs for 50 more cows and needed bulls = $8,200 Costs Reduced Variable inputs for grain production = $8,320 Revenues Reduced Revenue from corn-soybean production = $18,500 Total Benefits$27,219Total Costs$26,700 Net Benefit$519
Comments on Analysis Note that we needed more complete enterprise budgets for cow-calf and grain operations Fixed cost added for cows and bulls, but no fixed cost change for crop conversion from grain to forage. Why? Labor for cow-calf less than for grain ($600 vs. $1,500), an added benefit – What will you do with the extra time?
Comments on Partial Budgeting Final comments on Partial Budgets Economies of Size Opportunity Costs Sensitivity Analysis Risk Changes
Economies of Size Analysis assumes proportional (linear) changes in costs and revenue when make small changes Linear (proportional) approximation is fine for small changes, but not for large – need more complete budgeting for large changes Adding 20 cows to herd of 200 will increase labor demand, but likely less than 10% Dropping 100 acres from 1000 acre grain farm will decrease costs, but likely less than 10%
Opportunity Costs Should be included in the analysis Capital needs change: include costs (benefits) for borrowing more (less) money or locking up more (less) of your capital in farm assets Labor and Management changes: include the costs/benefits of your and your family's time commitment changes Change farm operation due to changes in credit or labor resources or desires
Sensitivity Analysis Assumptions used to construct partial budgets not always known with certainty Yield benefit for more timely planting Crop yields and prices Machinery costs Run analysis with a range of assumptions Low, average, high, or worst and best case scenario Find break even price or yield and decide how likely Formally model the uncertainty: use probability distributions, decision trees, or payoff matrices and do risk analysis
Risk and Partial Budgeting Partial Budgeting ignores changes in risk Converting 100 acres from grain to forage and adding 50 cows to cow-calf operation: What are the risk implications? Without formal risk analysis tools, comparisons usually ignore risk or add afterwards in ad hoc way How does the change affect the variability of my income? What the probably that I will at least break even on the change?
Aggregating Partial Budgets for Impact Analysis Partial budget analysis focuses on a farm to help guide farm decisions Aggregate over farms to estimate the net benefit for many farms making small changes as a result of a program Simple example for a hypothetical IPM program for Wisconsin strawberry growers WI has less than 1,000 acres of strawberries Program encouraged switch from a scheduled spray program to scouting-based applications
Hypothetical Example to Illustrate Based on meetings and small farmer survey of adopters Categorize impacts as either low and high benefit farms Low Benefit Farms: switch from 5 sprays to 3 sprays High Benefit Farms: switch from 4 sprays to 1 spray, got price premium for IPM Strawberries for 10% of crop Spray costs $10/acre for application and a.i. Scouting cost $10/acre for the season Average price = $2.50/lb, $2.65/lb for IPM strawberries Average yield = 6,000 lbs/acre
Partial Budget: Hypothetical Strawberry IPM: High Benefit Farm BenefitsCosts Additional Revenues 10% acres get $0.15/lb higher price, or 10% x $0.15/lb x 6,000 lbs/A = $90/A Additional Costs Scouting costs = $10/A Costs Reduced 3 fewer sprays, saving 3 x $10/A = $30/A Revenues Reduced None Total Benefits$120/ATotal Costs$10/A Net Benefit$110/A
Aggregating Partial Budgets for Impact Analysis Survey shows IPM was adopted on 750 acres Low Benefit Farms: 200 acres Benefit = 200 A x $20/A = $4,000 High Benefit Farms: 550 acres Benefit = 550 A x $110/A = $60,500 Total Benefit = $64,500
Summary Explained and illustrated use of partial budgets using some simple farm management examples Explained some weaknesses of partial budgets (size economies, opportunity costs, sensitivity analysis, risk) Presented simple IPM example and how to aggregate impacts by multiplying per acre affects by the total acres