Presentation on theme: "An Operator’s View on Deepwater Floating Systems and Technology Development Ming-Yao Lee Manager of Offshore & Marine Engineering Chevron Energy Technology."— Presentation transcript:
1An Operator’s View on Deepwater Floating Systems and Technology Development Ming-Yao Lee Manager of Offshore & Marine Engineering Chevron Energy Technology CompanySMART 100Symposium on MArine Resource & TechnologyTaipei, TaiwanOctober 16, 2011Notes go here.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
2Presentation Outline Why Deep Water? Overview of Floating System ConceptsConcept Selection Process and CriteriaDeepwater Design ChallengesChevron’s Deepwater Project ExperiencesNew and Emerging Floating System ConceptsConcluding Remarks2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
3Why Deep Water? – Easy Oil is Gone! What does it mean:Harsher environmentsDeeper watersLack of infrastructuresWhat can we do about it:Courtesy of BluewaterOpportunities of floating system technologies for enabling solutionsMitigation of risks associated with use of new technologyBuilding collaborative & productive partnerships to leverage project experience and accelerate technology deployment2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
4Deepwater Resource is Significant 7500 ft5000 ft1000 ft1500ftReservesMMBOEWater Depthft1 – 495 – 249250+1,000 – 1,4991,500 – 4,9995,000 – 7,499>7,500More bubbles and bigger bubbles, e.g. CVX will drill an average of 4-5 exploration wildcat wells per year, with a focus on Lower Tertiary prospects, and maintain an impact Exploration Factory.Estimated Volume of Gulf of Mexico Deepwater FieldsOCS Report: MMS2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
5Chevron and the Worldwide Portfolio Long-term global deepwater offshore growth expected2011–2015 deepwater expenditures estimated to be over $200 B, ~75% increase over the previous five yearsThe “Golden Triangle” still dominate, growth in Asia Pacific will be significantWorldwide Producing Deepwater (DW) BasinsGlobal Forecast of FPS SpendingThe “Golden Triangle” of deepwater, namely Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, and Brazilian areas, still will account for nearly 75% of global deepwater expenditure over the forecast period, but the emergence of Asia as a significant deepwater region should not be overlooked. Asian deepwater expenditure over the period will increase by 90% compared to spend. Much of this growth will be driven by the development of the Kebabangan cluster in Malaysia as well as the MA-6 development offshore India.Chevron ParticipationOther DW Basins2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
6What Concepts Are in Use? FPSOs continue to dominate concept selection primarily from lack of pipeline infrastructure.Driven by drilling, completion and well intervention costs, other concepts have become more important such as:Semi-submersiblesTension leg platforms (TLPs)SparsGlobal Forecast of FPS Hull TypeDespite the near-term slowdown due to global financial crisis in and oscillating crude oil prices, the global deepwater offshore market is expected to be both healthy and with robust growth.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
7Proven Floating Concepts Dry- or Wet-Tree SolutionsWet-Tree SolutionsDevelopments in deepwater environments can be characterized by the type of access to the development wells; direct vertical access (DVA) systems from surface (e.g. dry-tree solutions), non-DVA systems at seabed (i.e. wet-tree solutions), or combination systems.Given the relatively short history of production in deep waters, operators need to have more confidence that the chosen floating system concept will perform as planned and produce competitive economics.Technical attributes (pros & cons) associated with the existing tool-kit concepts are shown on this slide. This does NOT preclude operators from considering other more innovative development concepts and/or extending these tool-kit concepts to reduce cost and risk.Spar Good heave motions▬ Vortex-induced motion (VIM)▬ Size-limitedTLPMinimum heaveWeight-sensitiveDepth-limitedSemi-Submersible Quayside integrationRiser fatigueFPSOStorage capacityQuayside integrationRiser interfaceRiser fatigue2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
8Looking at Water DepthTLPs: Depth-limited due to conventional tendon design restrictions.Semis: Increasingly popular due to depth insensitive and quayside integration and might soon be used for dry-tree applications.Cascade/Chinook: Soon to be the first GOM FPSOOne of the key factors that affect the selection of a floating system concept is “water depth”.This slide shows the relative water depths of floating system concepts that are either installed or under construction. The perceived water depth capability of each concept is also illustrated.As shown, the main limitation for TLP is due to the weight of its tethers. For water depth beyond 1,500 – 2,000 meters, the tether weight tends to penalize the hull size and the economics of a TLP concept.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
9Multiple Concepts Needed for Opportunities Water Depth vs. Production CapacityLarge overlaps reinforce the need for concept evaluation and selection during early phase of a project.There are a number of opportunities where only a single concept is practical.Water Depth (ft)9,000 -7,000 -SparTLPSemiFPSO5,000 -3,000 -FPSO BoundariesAbalone –A petrobras development in 6500 feet and bopdSpar Boundaries7,800 feet and bopdTLP Boundariesfeet and 250,000 bopd Nb. Snorre A is an outlier in todays market. It would not be an economic choice today.Semi BoundariesIndependence 7,900 feet and Thunder 290,000 bopdPlatform Name Water Depth(ft) Production Capacity (Mboe/day)SPARNeptuneMedusaGenesisGunnisonFront RunnerBoomvangNansenTahitiHolsteinMad DogHoover/DianaConstitutionRed HawkHorn MountainDevils TowerPerdidoTLPHuttonSnorre AHeidrumPrinceMorpethJollietMatterhornAugerMarsBrutusRam/PowellMarlinUrsaNeptuneMarco PoloShenziMagnoliaSEMIInnovatorPPThunder HawkPNa KikaThunder HorseBlind FaithAtlantisIndependence HubFPSOAbaloneAgbamiAker SmartAkpoBaobab IvoirienBerge HeleneBongaBrasilCapixabaCaptainCidade JanieroDaliaErhaEspadarteFirenzeFluminense FPSOFradeGimboaGirassolGolfinho IIGreater PlutonioKikeh FPSOKizomba AKizomba BKizomba C #Marlim SulMondoOpportunity OilPPPPPPPPP-53 FPSOP-54 RoncadorPiranemaSao MateusSeilleanSendje CeibaStybarrowXikomba1,000 -100200300400Production Capacity (Mboe/day)2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
10Concept Selection Process CostHull motion characteristicsExport options or storage requirementsHull TechnicalCommercialRiser systemProduction rate andreservoiraerial extentHull Concept SelectionWater depthDirect verticalaccess of wellsUnderstanding the advantages/disadvantagesMinimizing the risks, especially subsurface & drilling (~> 50% cost)Ranking based on project/company criteriaMetoceanProduction only?Drilling?Region and LocationReservoir Management2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
11Motion Characteristics of Floating Hulls Natural Periods of MotionVertical motions are controlled by tendonsVertically mooredSpread mooredVertical motions are controlled by hull configurationSea EnergyTLPSparSemiShip BeamTo minimize vessel motions, it is desirable to ensure that the frequency of the waves (period) does not coincide with a resonant frequency of the vessel (the frequency at which the vessel ‘sings’ and so motions are significantly worse). The slide shows the typical wave period together with typical heave motion periods for the primary floating concepts.The TLP, semi-submersible, and spar will not suffer resonant response since their natural heave periods are far away from the period with maximum sea energy. However, ship-shaped FPSO in beam sea configuration may suffer significant motion. Therefore, the aforementioned design of weathervaning or turret moored FPSO’s are deployed in regions where storms are likely to occur equally from all headings, in order to maintain the FPSO in head seas. Spread moored FPSO’s are acceptable in West Africa since severe weather is predominantly from the south or southwest.Ship Bow5Wave Period (Seconds)20Note: Hull motions are minimized by keeping outside the area of wave energy.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
12Summary of Basic Concept Features SparTLPDeep-Draft SemiFPSOTurretSpread MooredExport AlternativesPipelinePipeline/ TankerWater DepthUp to 8,000 ft400 to 6,000 ft800 to 8,000 ft50 to 8,000 ftTopside Weight RequirementsUp to 20,000tUp to 40,000tMetocean Characteristics by RegionAllNot harsh conditionsRiser SystemTop-tensioned, SCR*, Flexible, TowerTop-tensioned, SCR, Flexible, TowerSCR, Flexible, TowerFlexible, SCR, TowerDry or Wet TreesDry or WetWet(eg. FPSO for GoM)Concept selection for floating production systems has a complex number of parameters to consider.FPSO’s are the most common concept selected because of storage or export capabilities.Local regulations and local content may impact concepts.*Steel catenary riser (SCR)2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
13Key Concept Selection Criteria Technical Feasibility; support all equipment for operations while meeting all performance criteriaMaturity of DesignTechnical robustnessHistorical performanceExperience of people involvedCosts and RisksCAPEX / OPEXProject Execution PlanAfter stepping through the selection process, these are some of the key criteria that affect the final selection.The ultimate goal is to select an optimum hull concept which:Supports all necessary equipment for production while meet all performance criteriaProvides sufficient robustness to fulfill its intended purposeBuilt, installed and operated at minimum risks and costs2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
14Ultra-Deep Water Has Other Challenges Design ChallengesCapability to predict and verify response behavior of entire floating systemTesting facilities cannot model floating systems with complete mooring lines and risersKey Questions*To what extent can the truncated test be done?Can the numerical analysis reproduce the test results?Can the full-depth extrapolation capture the coupling effects, e.g., “tail wagging the dog”?1:100 model in a 10m deep wave basin for 1500m full water depthCompromiseWave basins are not big nor deep enough!!e.g., 1:100 model scale in a 10-m deep basin for 1,500-m WDTypical Range1:50 – 1:100Numerical InterpretationPhysicalTestingUncertaintiesModel Scale (- Water Depth)2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.*Ref: Lee & Ma, DOT 2008
15How do we handle uncertainty in this area? Ever-Changing Environment:100-year Hs Contours Based on Passage of More Large StormsHow do we handle uncertainty in this area?Hot spot???JSM(7,000’)BGF(5,200’)Point to note: in the Central GOM “hot spot”, the new API RP 2MET has the revised criteria in place. Recent major hurricanes in the GOM like Ivan (2004)/Katrina (2005) tracking would feed into increased design statistics.However, there’s still significant upside potential outside of Central GOM, e.g. Gustav & IKE of 2008.Several large storms passing west of central GOM could change platform design statistics further, widen perceived intense area of Gulf*Hs (m)2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.*Ref: OTC & 1960215
16Example Changes: Central GOM Add large storms, eliminate early data…Example, 100-year Hs, Central GOM:2003 was 13.5 m2008 now mExample Changes:Central Gulf site 100-year Hs:2003 was 13.5 m2008 now mHave adjusted JSM, BGF sites for historical record and Ike, but…Statistics still vulnerable to change from big storms162011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.16
17Chevron Installations and Constructions FSU/FPSOAlba/CaptainRosebankFPSO*Terra NovaFPSO*Hai Yang Shi You*Nan Hai Fa Zian*Bohai Shi JiSparGenesisTahiti*Mad Dog*PerdidoSemi-SubmersibleBlind FaithJack/St. MaloCompliant TowerPetroniusTLPBig FootFPSOTantawanBenchamas ExplorerPattani SpiritFPSOFrade*Papa TerraFPSO/FSOAgbamiEscravos LPG*UsanFPSO*Cossack PioneerFPSO/FSOKuitoSanha*Kome Kribi*Moho-Bilondo*N’KossaNegageLucapaFPSO*Intan*PBS&J San JacintoGendalo-GehamTLPWest SenoCompliant TowerBBLTTombua-Landana* Non-Operated Joint VentureIn Design2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
18Recent Chevron Floating Projects The Chevron Way at its best: people, partnership and performance – health, environment and safetyUsed a system approach in concept selection – coupled hull, mooring and riser solutionsIntegrated operations and project teams early in the processAligned company and contractor – contracting strategyGuard unknowns in deepwater operations, especially contingency of vessel and equipment – crane limit, vessel breakdownOTC 19857OTC 20249Agbami 3Q 2008Blind Faith 4Q 2008Frade 1Q 2009Tahiti 2Q 2009Agbami – 3Q08 (The world’s largest FPSO; A worldwide partnership/teamwork – “One Project, One Team”)Blind Faith – 4Q08 (Reached full production within 2 months of first oil)Frade – 1Q09 (CVX’s first operating asset in one of the most promising deepwater regions)Right to hold facility in yard to achieve planned sailaway completion?Use Separate integration contactor?Tahiti – 2Q09 (Reached full production within 2 months of first oil)2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
19Current Floating Systems Projects in Design Jack & St Malo semiBig Foot TLPPapa Terra TLWP2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
20Dry Tree Facilities for Ultra-Deep and Large Payload No proven dry-tree conceptsTLP limited by Water DepthFor ultra-deepwater Wilcox reservoirs, our additional challenges:WD is deep; the drilling (reservoir) depth is even deeper.High tension and large stroke for the riser tensioning systems.Spar limited by Payload2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
21New Enabling or Enhancing Concepts FPSO with drilling capabilityReduce development drilling costIncrease oil recoveryCircular-shaped FPSOs to reduce CAPEXBetter hull steel efficiencySimplified constructabilityNo turret (even in harsh conditions)Dry-tree semis to reduce CAPEX and increase flexibilityHigher topsides weightDeeper dry-tree developmentsQuayside integrationOctabuoyMinDOCAzurite FDPSOSevanSSPPair-C SemiAker Dry Tree Semi2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.Azurite FPSO photo courtesy of Murphy Oil Company
22Chevron Technology Qualification Process “All new technologies that will, by the end of Select (i.e. prior to FEED), have been proven either through field trials, extensive testing, or successful application in a parallel industry, shall be considered.”Example: Dry-Tree Semi IssuesHull motions to accommodate proven riser tensioning systemsConstructability of new hull forms and/or critical componentsMinimize risks of new technologies2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
23Concluding RemarksDeep water will require a large portfolio of projects to be developed with floating production systems.Development opportunities often call for floating system concept evaluation and selection.A more standardized concept selection process is needed.Focus on new developments of enabling/ enhancing concepts, and be open to new technologies.Dry trees and/or platform drilling are likely to become more important, to increase recovery and reduce cost.Operation’s input early and throughout the floating system project will pay significant dividends.A standardized concept selection process is needed to:not re-inventing the wheels.Leverage best practices & lessons learned to improve project results.Integrated operations and design will lead to a more reliable floating facility, which is easier to operate & maintain.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.
24Thank You!New floating system technologies are required to address ever increasing water depth and large topside challengesExperience, technology and perseverance enable us to overcome challenges and deliver valueCollaborative and productive partnership will accelerate technology development and deploymentQuestions?New concept from inception to installation ~10 years.2011 Chevron U.S.A., Inc. All rights reserved.