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The Thin-Film Future Shortcut to grid-parity? Edwin Koot Founder SolarPlaza.

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Presentation on theme: "The Thin-Film Future Shortcut to grid-parity? Edwin Koot Founder SolarPlaza."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Thin-Film Future Shortcut to grid-parity? Edwin Koot Founder SolarPlaza

2 SolarPlaza.com © Laxtron

3 You

4 The Crystalline Future The way to grid-parity?

5 The Thin-film Future… Sales price of <$1/Wp possible by 2010? More modules & greater yield for less money? Winning technology? (CdTl, CIGS, a-Si) Where to buy?

6 Expertise in the room… James Surowiecki: The Wisdom of Crowds Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few

7 Thin-film market survey (1) When do you expect the production cost of thin-film modules to fall below $1/Wp? SMS to +31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for by the end of 2010 1 for by the end of 2012 2 for after 2012

8 Thin-film market survey (2) In 5 years the cheapest solar kWh from power plants will be produced by: SMS to + 31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for Thin-film technology 1 for Crystalline Si technology 2 for Concentrated or thermal solar technology

9 Thin-film market survey (3) Will we see consolidation in the thin-film industry in the next 5 years? SMS to +31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for No, more manufacturers 1 for Yes, fewer but bigger manufacturers

10 Thin-film market survey (4) In 2015 the biggest market for thin-film products will be: SMS to +31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for Europe 1 for Asia 2 for Middle East & Africa 3 for Central and North America

11 Thin-film market survey (5) In 2015 the leading technology in terms of industry capacity will be... SMS to +31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for Thin-film technology 1 for Crystalline Si technology 2 for Concentrated and solar thermal technology

12 Thin-film market survey (6) The major constraint on rapid growth of the thin-film industry is: SMS to +31 6 46628611, adding: 0 for feedstock availability (silane, indium, cadmium, tellurium) 1 for availability of quality glass 2 for availability of markets

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