Presentation on theme: "DISCOUNTING AND ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CRITERIA"— Presentation transcript:
1 DISCOUNTING AND ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CRITERIA Chapter 4DISCOUNTING AND ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CRITERIA
2 Contents Discounting Alernative Investment Criteria - Net Present Value Criteria- Benefit-Cost Ratio Criteria- Pay Back Period Criteria- Internal Rate of Return Criteria
3 1.1 Discounting and Compounding Same amount of money "today" and "in future" do not have the same value.Finding the “today” value of a future amount is DISCOUNTING.Finding the “future” value a current amount is COMPOUNDING.
4 1.1 Discounting and Compounding (cont’d) An investment of $1, with a discount rate = rValue ValuePresent After One Year Present After n-YearsB/(1+r) B B/(1+r)n Br is the discount rate1/(1+r) is the discount factor(1+r) is the compound factorEx: Present value of 250$ for 10 years at 6% discount rate4PV = $250/ (1+0.06)10PV = $250/ 1.79= $ or $250* 1/(1+0.06)10 = 139.6
6 1.1Discounting and Compounding (cont’d) Discounting Net Benefits- the period (number of years)- the size of the discount (r)NPVr0= (B0-C0)/(1+r)0 + (B1-C1)/(1+r)(Bn-Cn)/(1+r)n
7 1.1Discounting and Compounding (cont’d) In ranking projects, the particular point in time to which all the net benefits in each period are discounted does not matter.Instead of discounting all the net benefit flows to the initial year (year 0), they can be dicounted to year “k” NPV at year k will be a constant multiple of NPV in year 0. It will be multiplied with (1+r). This will not change the ranks of the projects, as all projects’ NPVs in year 0 will be multiplied with the same constant (1+r).
8 Table 4-1. Calculating the present value of net benefits from an investment project
9 1.2 Variable Discount Rate Discount rates may vary through time.Funds may be very scarce at the beginning of the project and the discount rates may be very high.This will fall in the following years as the supply and demand for funds return to normal
10 1.2 Variable Discount Rates Adjustment of Cost of Funds Through Time12345r0r1r2r3r4r5r*4*3*2*1*0If funds currently are abnormally scarceNormal or historical average cost of fundsIf funds currently are abnormally abundantYears from present periodFor variable discount rates r1, r2, & r3 in years 1, 2, and 3, the discount factors are, respectively, as follows:1/(1+r1), 1/[(1+r1)(1+r2)] & 1/[(1+r1)(1+r2)(1+r3)]
11 1.3 Factors Affecting the Discount Rates for Public Projects Discount rate for a private investment is the weighted average of:Rate of return from the sale of equityThe cost of borrowed fundsDiscount rate for a public sector investment is the Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital (EOCK). This rate reflects the opportunity forgone for not using the funds in an alternative public project. It considers the lost opportunity for the whole economy. It reflects the true cost of the resources (funds) used.EOCK is taken as 12% by the World Bank for developing countries.
12 1.3 Factors Affecting the Discount Rates for Public Projects (con’t) If significant market distortions exits i.e. domestic distortions (taxes and subsidies), and external distortions (tariffs and subsidies for exports), the market price of inputs and outputs of the projects do not reflect the true costs of the resources. Their economic (shadow) prices should be used in public projects.For public sector projects, economic analysis (rather than financial analysis) is more relevant. Economic analysis uses the EOCK (rather than the discount rate) and the economic values (rather than the market prices).
13 1.3 Factors Affecting the Discount Rates for Public Projects (con’t) Financial Analysis Economic Analysis* Financial discount rates * EOCK* Market prices * Economic values* More relevant to private sector * More rel. to public sector* Owner’s and banker’s point of view * Economy point of view
14 2. Alternative Investment Criteria First Criterion: Net Present Value (NPV)What does net present value mean?Measures change in wealthUse as a decision criterion to answer following:a. When to reject projects?b. Select project (s) under a budget constraint?c. Compare mutually exclusive projects?
15 2.1 Net Present Value Criterion a. When to Reject Projects?Rule: “Do not accept any project unless it generates a positive net present value when discounted by the opportunity cost of funds”Examples:Project A: Present Value Costs $1 million, NPV + $70,000Project B: Present Value Costs $5 million, NPV - $50,000Project C: Present Value Costs $2 million, NPV + $100,000Project D: Present Value Costs $3 million, NPV - $25,000Result:Only projects A and C are acceptable. The country is made worse off if projects B and D are undertaken.
16 2.1 Net Present Value Criterion (Cont’d) b. When You Have a Budget Constraint?Rule: “Within the limit of a fixed budget, choose that subset of the available projects which maximizes the net present value”Example:If budget constraint is $4 million and 4 projects with positive NPV:Project E: Costs $1 million, NPV + $60,000Project F: Costs $3 million, NPV + $400,000Project G: Costs $2 million, NPV + $150,000Project H: Costs $2 million, NPV + $225,000Result:Combinations FG and FH are impossible, as they cost too much. EG and EH are within the budget, but are dominated by the combination EF, which has a total NPV of $460,000. GH is also possible, but its NPV of $375,000 is not as high as EF.
17 2.1 Net Present Value Criterion (Cont’d) c. When You Need to Compare Mutually Exclusive Projects?Rule: “In a situation where there is no budget constraint but a project must be chosen from mutually exclusive alternatives, we should always choose the alternative that generates the largest net present value”Example:Assume that we must make a choice between the following three mutually exclusive projects:Project I: PV costs $1.0 million, NPV $300,000Project J: PV costs $4.0 million, NPV $700,000Projects K: PV costs $1.5 million, NPV $600,000Result:Projects J should be chosen because it has the largest NPV.
18 2.1 Net Present Value Criterion (Cont’d) Constraints of Using NPVNPV, not only tells you whether the project will be accepted or rejected but also gives you the present value of the surplus or the deficit of the project. This is an advantage for NPV.If the life periods of the strickly alternative projects are not the same, adjustments have to be made, so that the projects will be compared for the same lenght of lives.It is not correct to compare the NPV of a gas turbine plant with a life of 10 years, to a coal plant with a life of 30 years. Their lenght of lives should be equated by repeating the gas plant for three times.
19 2.2 Benefit-Cost RatioIt is a widely used by the analysts. Should be very careful, otherwise incorrect and misleading decisions can be made.Benefit-Cost Ratio (R) = Present Value Benefits/Present Value CostsBasic rule:If benefit-cost ratio (R) >1, then the project should be undertaken.Problems?Sometimes it is not possible to rank projects with the Benefit-Cost RatioMutually exclusive projects of different sizesMutually exclusive projects and recurrent costs subtracted out of benefits or benefits reported gross of operating costsNot necessarily true that RA>RB that project “A” is better
20 2.2 Benefit-Cost Ratio (Cont’d) First Problem:The Benefit-Cost Ratio Does Not Adjust for Mutually Exclusive Projects of Different Sizes.For example:Project A: PV0of Costs = $5.0 M, PV0 of Benefits = $7.0 MNPVA = $2.0 M RA = 7/5 = 1.4Project B: PV0 of Costs = $20.0 M, PV0 of Benefits = $24.0 MNPVB = $4.0 M RB = 24/20 = 1.2According to the Benefit-Cost Ratio criterion, project A should be chosen over project B because RA>RB, but the NPV of project B is greater than the NPV of project A.So, project B should be chosen
21 2.2. Benefit-Cost Ratio (Cont’d) Second Problem:The Benefit-Cost Ratio Does Not Adjust for Mutually Exclusive Projects where the Costs are treated in different ways.Project A Project BPV of gross benefits 2, ,000PV of operating Costs ,800PV of capital costs 1,B/C Ratio (Operating costs netted out of the benefits)RA = ( )/1200 = RB = ( )/100 = 2.0Project B is preferred to Project A (RB > RA ).2. B/C Ratio (Operating costs added to capital costs) RA = 2000/( )= RB = 2000/( ) = 1.05Project A is preferred to Project B (RA > RB ).NPV of a project is not sensetive to the way the acountants treat costs. Thus NPV is far more reliable than B/C ratio as a criterion for project selection.Conclusion: The Benefit-Cost Ratio CANNOT be used to rank projects
22 2.3 Pay-Out or Pay-Back Period It is widely used criterion as it is very easy to apply. Unfortunately it can give misleading results especially in cases of investment with a long life.In a simplest form, it measures the number of years it will take for the undiscounted net benefits (positive net cash flow) to repay the investment. If the number is greater than an arbitrary chosen year, the project is accepted.In more sophisticated form, it divides the discounted net benefits over a given year with the discounted investment costs. If the number is greater than 1, the project is accepted. One assumes that after the chosen net benefits are so uncertain (war and political inability) that they can be neglected. This assumption is not realistic in cases of bridges and roads, etc.
23 2.3 Pay-Out or Pay-Back Period Project with shortest payback period is preferred by this criteriaThere is no reason to expect that quick yielding projects are superior to long term invetments.
24 Figure 4.2 Comparison of Two Projects With Differing Lives Using Pay-Out Period Criterion Bt - CtBaBbtatbCa = CbPayout period for project aPayout period for project bTime
25 2.3 Pay-Out or Pay-Back Period (Cont’d) In such situations pay-back period criterion gives wrong recommendation for choice among investments.Assumes all benefits that are produced by in longer life project have an expected value of zero after the pay-out period.The criteria may be useful when project subject to high level of political risk.
26 2.4 Internal Rate of Return Criterion IRR is the discount rate (K) at which the present value of benefits are just equal to the present value of costs for the particular project.....(IRR= k) wkich equates the net benefits tı zero.NPVr 0 = 0 = (B0 - C0 ) + (B1 – C1 )/((1+k)1 + (B2 – C2 ) / (1+k)2Bt - Ct(1 + K)tNote: the IRR is a mathematical concept, not an economic or financial criterionCommon uses of IRR:(a). If the IRR is larger than the cost of funds then the project should be undertaken(b). Often the IRR is used to rank mutually exclusive projects. The highest IRR project should be chosenAn advantage of the IRR is that it only uses information from the projectAnother advantage of IRR is that it does not require the calculation of EOCK. With NPV one has to calculate the EOCK in the economic analysis.ti=0= 0
27 2.4 Difficulties With the Internal Rate of Return Criterion First Difficulty: Multiple rates of return for projectSolution 1: K = 100%; NPV= /(1+1) /(1+1)2 = 0Solution 2: K = 0%; NPV= /(1+0)+-200/(1+0)2 = 0+300Bt - Ct-200-100Time
28 2.4.1 Difficulties With the Internal Rate of Return Criterion (IRR Makes Misleading Choice under following conditions)For Single ProjectsIf the net cash flow is negative in the initial year (due to initial investment) but all positive in the following years, then IRR has a unique solution i.e. One solutionIf negative net cash flows take place after the negative net cash flow in intial year, we cannot have a unique solution for the IRR. You will have two values for IRR (figure 4.3)If there is a large negative benefit in the final year of the project, there will not be a unique solution for IRR again.
29 Figure 4.3 Time Profiles of the Incremental Net Cash Flows for Various Types of Projects Bt - Ct+time-Bt - Ct+time-
30 2.4.2 Difficulties With The Internal Rate of Return Criterion Year123...ҐProject A-2,000+600Project B20,000+4,000NPV and IRR provide different Conclusions:Opportunity cost of funds = 10%NPV : 600/0.102,000 = 6,0002,000 = 4,000NPV : 4,000/0.1020,000 = 40,00020,000 = 20,000Hence, NPV > NPVIRRA: 600/K2,000 = 0 or K= 0.30B: 4,000/K20,000 = 0 or K= 0.20Hence, K>K2.4.2 Difficulties With The Internal Rate of Return Criterion(Cont’d)Second difficulty: Projects of different sizes and also strict alternatives
31 2.4.3 Difficulties With The Internal Rate of Return Criterion (Cont’d) Third difficulty:Projects of different lengths of life and strict alternativesOpportunity cost of funds = 8%Project A: Investment costs = 1,000 in year 0Benefits = 3,200 in year 5Project B: Investment costs = 1,000 in year 0Benefits = 5,200 in year 10NPV :-1, ,200/(1.08)5= 1,177.861, ,200/(1.08)10= 1,408.60Hence, NPV > NPVIRRA:1, ,200/(1+K)= 0 which implies that K= 0.262B1, ,200/(1+K= 0 which implies that K= 0.179Hence, K>K
32 2.4.4 Difficulties With The Internal Rate of Return Criterion (Cont’d) Fourth difficulty:Same project but started at different timesProject A: Investment costs = 1,000 in year 0Benefits = 1,500 in year 1Project B: Investment costs = 1,000 in year 5Benefits = 1,600 in year 6NPVA:-1, ,500/(1.08) =B1,000/(1.08)5+ 1,600/(1.08)6=Hence, NPV > NPVIRR1, ,500/(1+K) = 0 which implies that K= 0.51,000/(1+K)+ 1,600/(1+K= 0 which implies that K= 0.6Hence, K>K