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1 407-408 Abhishilp Opp.Vishweshwar Mahadev Temple Nr. Keshavbag Party Plot Vastrapur, Ahmedabad-380015 Phone: 079-26730583, 40086763

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Presentation on theme: "1 407-408 Abhishilp Opp.Vishweshwar Mahadev Temple Nr. Keshavbag Party Plot Vastrapur, Ahmedabad-380015 Phone: 079-26730583, 40086763"— Presentation transcript:

1 Abhishilp Opp.Vishweshwar Mahadev Temple Nr. Keshavbag Party Plot Vastrapur, Ahmedabad Phone: ,

2 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN DEBT MARKET Liquid Fund : Expected returns 8.00 to 9.00% Low Duration Fund : Investment Horizon 3 Months & above Expected returns 8.50 to 8.75% Short term Income Plan : Investment horizon 1 year & above Expected returns 9 to 9.5% FMPs: 6 Months, 1year, 2year, 3year FMP available Expected returns 1 year 8.5 – 8.75% 2 year 8.75 – 8.85% 3 year 8.85 – 9% 30 38

3 RECOMMENDATION If the horizon is 9 months to 1 year short term income plan provides the best investment opportunity. Short term & Medium term plan with duration of 2-3years provides good investment opportunities. Accrual income funds having high portfolio yield with average maturities 1 to 2 years can give good returns for investors who doesnt want to take duration risk averse. Income Fund and Gilt fund with duration of 6 to 10 years provides attractive investment opportunities and will be beneficiary of falling interest rate scenario. Suitable for investments horizon for month and for investors ready to take short term volatility. The FMP also offers attractive yield if someone wants to lock in fund for specified period

4 OUTLOOK FOR DEBT MARKET Looking at the current economics scenario the RBI may increase repo rate by 25 bps over next 3month. Short term yield of the curve offers good entry point. Aggressive investor can invest in the long end of the curve. Currently Yield on 10 year GOI Security has crossed 9% and is very attractive for aggressive investor to invest. Long term Interest rates will depend on inflation no, fiscal deficit and OMO

5 32 40 EQUITY MARKET VALUATIONS

6 Why Equities now? - Broad Market Valuations Sensex P/E Ratio Sensex P/B Ratio Avg PE Avg PB Current valuations below 10 year average, despite some stocks trading at very high valuations Source:www.bseindia.com 7

7 Why Equities now? - Polarisation of Valuation P/E 30.0x 25.0x 20.0x 15.0x 10.0x 5.0x Defensives vs Cyclicals Defensives Cyclicals In the past, valuation gap between cyclical and defensives have converged Since 2010, the gap has widened and defensives are trading at high valuations Cyclical - Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Industrials, IT, Materials Defensives - Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Telecom, Utilities Source: UBS Securities 8

8 Identifying Value in the Market P/B S&P BSE Midcap Index Current valuations close to 2009 lows BSE Midcap P/B BSE Midcap Midcap valuations are currently at 2009 lows. The midcap index rallied from 3300 levels to 8000 levels between The increase in book value of the stocks in the midcap index has not been accompanied by increase in valuations. Source:www.bseindia.com 17

9 OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD Identifying Value in the Market Top 20 performers vs Rest of the market 350 Values rebased to Top 20 performersBottom 80 performersBSE100 The top 20 stocks have trebled, now making up 30% of the BSE100 market cap versus barely 10% in Dec-07 These stocks continue to outperform, providing gloss to the headline indices like Sensex and Nifty Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates

10 OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD Why Equities now? - Market Segmented Mid & Small Cap discount to Sensex 100% 90% Mid cap discount to Sensex 80% 70% 60% Small cap discount to Sensex 50% Nov-10Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 S&P BSE Mid CapS&P BSE Small Cap Since the last peak in Nov 2010 the Small and Mid cap stocks are trading at a discount to their Large cap counterparts Discount is calculated taking Nov10 index values as base. Source:www.bseindia.com

11 Why Equities now? - S&P BSE Sensex & Elections OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD ElectionsAbsolute Appreciation Election Year Date 20% Sensex Appreciation 50% 70% Appreciation Jun Within 1 year May Within 2 years The bull phase that started in 1991 ended in Mar Within 2 years Oct Within 1 year May Within 1 year Within 2 years May Within 1 year Within 2 years Above chart explains how S&P BSE Sensex has performed post elections. Provided only for reference and understanding of market movement post elections. Nothing in the slide must be construed as future performance of S&P BSE Sensex. Source: and Election Commission of India

12 OUTLOOK FOR EQUITY MARKET Higher interest cost will impact the earning of corporate over the next two quarters. Most of the negatives have been discounted by the market. Market available PE of 15 discount the FY-14 earnings which is reasonable. Market expected to remain range bound 18, ,000 in short term with not much downside risk barring unexpected events. Next two quarters will provide excellent investment opportunity in equity market. Market around 19,000 provide good entry point with horizon of months. Markets are expected to look up from the second half of the current year on back off expected improvement in macro economic fundamentals. Good time to build equity portfolio through combination of lumpsump and STP

13 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS EQUITY FUNDS MIDCAP FUNDS BALANCED FUNDS MONTHLY INCOME PLAN SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN PERFORMANCE FROM PEAK OF

14 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS EQUITY FUNDS 46

15 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS MIDCAP FUNDS 47

16 BALANCED FUNDS PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS 48

17 MONTHLY INCOME PLAN PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS

18 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS SIP( Systematic Investment Plan)

19 PERFORMANCE FROM PEAK OF 2008 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS 22 50

20 Thank You 53


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