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MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY PLANNING AND BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX July of 2006 Ministry Silas Rondeau.

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Presentation on theme: "MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY PLANNING AND BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX July of 2006 Ministry Silas Rondeau."— Presentation transcript:

1 MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY PLANNING AND BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX July of 2006 Ministry Silas Rondeau

2 SUMARY 1 – Brazilian Electrical System 2 – Energy Planning 3 – Energy Matrix 4 – Ten Year Electrical Energy Expansion Plan 2006/ – Key Projects 6 – Electrical Energy Auctions 7 – Others Energy Souces 8 – Agro-industry 9 – Oil and Gas

3 BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

4 4 000 km Sistemas Stand- alones km3.900 km Continental Dimensions BRAZIL EUROPE BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

5 Thermal plantsMain Source Isolated Systems 2 % of the Total Energy Market 1,448 kmTransmission 200 MWImports 3,186 MWInstalled Capacity HydroelectricityMain Source Interconnected System 98 % of the Total Energy Market 84,795 kmTransmission 7,970 MWImports 89,838 MWInstalled Capacity ISOLATED SYSTEMS INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM Source: MME April

6 BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAL SYSTEM Source: MME, 2005 International interconnections Brazil Bolivia 7 (GN) Paraguay 3 4 Argentina 8 (GN) Uruguay 5 1 Venezuela 2 6

7 Ministry of Mines and Energy ENERGY PLANNING

8 THE PLANNING PROCESS Basics planning goals of MME: Long term studies up to 30 years Purpose: Integrated and global energetic goal

9 THE PLANNING PROCESS Strategic Approach Long Term Studies (up to 30 years) Strategic Approach Long Term Studies (up to 30 years) Scheduling Approach Short Term Studies (up to 10 years) Scheduling Approach Short Term Studies (up to 10 years) Electrical Energy National Plan National Energy Matrix Ten Year Electrical Energy Plan References Guidelines References Guidelines Mid Term Studies (15 years) Mid Term Studies (15 years) Products

10 The Planning Process: Coordination and Definitions: MME Studies Development: EPE Interaction with CNPE and Society: MME THE PLANNING PROCESS

11 Ministry of Mines and Energy ENERGY MATRIX

12 The most competitive source of the country Renewable resource Available Power: 260 GW (28% in operation) HYDRO PLANTS Expressive power available for generation of electrical energy) Renewable Resource Available Power over 500 MW/year BIOMASS Important reserves of mineral coal are available 32 billion ton (90% in Rio Grande do Sul State) Power of 20,000 MW available for 100 years (supposing 50% used for generation of electrical energy) MINERAL COAL NUCLEAR 6 th largest reserve of uranium in the world 32 billion ton (equivalent to a 1.2 billion toe ) Huge power for generation of electrical energy NATURAL GAS Reserve of 306 billion m 3 (equivalent to 0.3 billion toe) Production: 48 million m 3 /day (2005) 50% of Brazilian natural gas market was supplied with national production (2005) toe – ton oil equivalent MAIN SOURCES FOR ELECTRICTY GENERATION

13 Brazil RENEWABLENO RENEWABLE World Source: MME, 2006 RENEWABLE SOURCES: BRAZIL AND THE WORLD

14 ENERGY MATRIX Source: MME 2006 Renewable sources: Brazil 2005 – 45 % World 2003 – 14 % OCDE 2003 – 7.1 % 100% million [toe]

15 Matrix associated with generation of electrical energy. Included energy imported from Itaipu. Source: MME 2006 BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAL ENERGY MATRIX 100% [TWh] Renewable Sources: Brazil 2005 – 89% World 2003 – 18%

16 AGENDA TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN Ministry of Mines and Energy

17 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN Important aspects: MME guidelines: Specific plans, since long term studies are on execution. Electrical Energy Market: from 374 TWh, in 2005, to 618 TWh, in 2015, requiring increments from 2,500 to 3,300 MW per year (firm energy) in the supply capacity, over the ten year period. Supply: Adjustment of supply capacity to market requirements At the end of planning period: Brazil strongly interconnected.

18 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN Reference Terms: Developed by MME and handed to all public and private agents. Plan Technical Studies: developed by EPE (Enterprise of Energetic Resource) under contract, supervision and follow up by MME. Integration MME/EPE: strong interaction during the process with the teams of EPE and of MME/SPE. Report of Ten Year Expansion Plan /2015: subject to public consultation on MMEs home page at Preparation Process:

19 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN DEMAND Market Forecast: three projections of the economic growth 6.0% 4.5% HIGH GROWTH 4.5% 4.0% REFERENCE GROWTH 3.5% 3.0% LOW GROWTH ten years average of GDP: 5.0% p.a. GDP ten years average of GDP: 4.2% p.a. ten years average of GDP: 3.1% p.a.

20 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN DEMAND Obs.: Load supplied by Electricity System without classic self-production (without use the transmission lines). **Trajectory of reference High Reference Low Total demand - Brazil (GWh) Load - Brazil (MWyear) (*) percentual of reference forecast 11,732 MW year 15.4% (*) High Reference Low 87.2 TWh 9,954 MWyear 16.9% (*)

21 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN DEMAND Total 2005*: 346 TWhTotal 2015*: 567 TWh * Without classic self-production (when energy is produced near the load and without using the transmission system). Consumption Structure

22 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN SUPPLY Sources: Hydroelectricity; Natural Gas; Coal; Biomass*; Small Hydro Plants*; Wind Power Plant*; Nuclear Cogeneration by natural gas; Modernization and Power Upgrading; * Sources of the governmental program called PROINFA

23 TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN GRID System under study:

24 REFERENCE GROWTH GROWTH GDP = 4.2% Population = 2.0 millions/year Electrical energy consumption = 5.1% year INSTALLED CAPACITY 2005 – 92,865 MW 2015 – 134,667 MW ENERGY NECESSARY 2005 – 47,500 MW average 2015 – 76,000 MW average DEMAND NECESSARY 2005 – 62,000 MWh/h 2015 – 99,000 MWh/h BASIC GRID 2005 – 82,092 km 2015 – 123,429 km 41,800 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 10 YEARS Investments US$ 56 billions by 10 years Source: MME, PDEE ,300 Km OF TRANSMISSION LINES IN 10 YEARS TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN SUMMARY

25 HYDRO 73% NUCLEAR 2% COAL 2% PCH, PROINFA, etc. 3% FUEL OIL 1% GAS 9% IMPORTS 8% DIESEL OIL 2% BIOMASS 0% OTHERS 10% HYDRO 73% NUCLEAR 2% PCH, PROINFA, etc. 4% FUEL OIL 1% GAS 9% IMPORTS 6% DIESEL OIL 2% BIOMASS 1% OTHERS 12% COAL 2% Jan/2006 – 93,728 MW (*) Dec/2015 – 134,667 MW (*) Included the power of the existing plants in the Isolated Systems that will be connected: Manaus/Macapá and Rondônia/Acre Share of the Sources Source: MME, PDEE TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN Installed Capacity

26 Source: MME, PDEE Interconnections Expansion 2009 North (Imperatriz) / North East – 1,500 MW in Dec.2010 Magnifying North/South – 1,100 MW in Dec. South/South East /Mid West – 1,000 MW in Dec.2011 Madeira / South East – 3,000 MW in Jan Madeira / South East – 3,000 MW in Dec.2013 Belo Monte / North – 3,000 MW in Dec. Belo Monte (Colinas) / South East – 1,100 MW in Dec.2014 Belo Monte / Colinas – 3,000 MW in Dec. NE N/ Man SE/CO/ RO S Ivaiporã Imperatriz * IT Mad BM DC System AC System TEN YEAR EXPANSION PLAN GRID

27 AGENDA KEY PROJECTS Ministry of Mines and Energy

28 KEY PROJECTS Hydro plants on the Madeira river Madeira river (6,450 MW) JIRAU Hydro plant - Capacity: 3,150 MW - Expected to operate (first unit): January, SANTO ANTÔNIO Hydro plant - Capacity: 3,300 MW - Expected to operate (first unit): January, Total Investment: US$ 7, millions US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70

29 KEY PROJECTS BELO MONTE Hydro plant BELO MONTE - project overview Xingú river Capacity: 11,181 MW Expected to operate (first unit): December, Total Investment: US$ 3, millions US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70

30 Average of ground inundated per power installed: UHEs existing:0.52 km²/MW UHEs of PDEE: 0.27 km²/MW UHE Belo Monte: 0.04 km²/MW UHE Jirau:0.08 km²/MW UHE Santo Antônio:0.09 km²/MW ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL INDICATORS Source: MME, PDEE

31 KEY PROJECTS TRANSMISSION GRID: Two circuits, alternating current, 500 kV, km, MW; and Two bipolos, direct current, 600 kV, km, MW. System Interconnection Projects - MADEIRA

32 KEY PROJECTS TRANSMISSION GRID: Under study to supply the NW and N regions. Existing interconnection already to SE. Interconnections studied - BELO MONTE

33 AGENDA AUCTION 2006 Ministry of Mines and Energy

34 Auction Date: June 29, 2006 Start of Supply : 2009 Projects that traded electrical energy: 15 Hydro plants and 16 Thermal plants Results: Energy traded: 356,314 MWh (1,682 MW year) Hydro: 270,331 MWh (1,028 MW year) Thermal: 85,983 MWh (654 MW year) Total Investment: US$ 16.9 billions Average Price: Hydro plants - US$ 46.95/MWh Thermal plants - US$ 49.03/MWh Average Price - US$ 47.76/MWh ELECTRICAL ENERGY AUCTION - A-3 US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70

35 7 Projects: Salto Grande 53 MW Mauá 382 MW Dardanelos 261 MW Barra do Pomba 80 MW Cambuci 50 MW Santo Antônio 3,150 MW Jirau 3,300 MW MWUS$ millions 7,2767,977 US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70 Date: 09/05/2006 ELECTRICAL ENERGY AUCTION - A-5 PowerTotal Investments

36 TRANSMISSION AUCTION AUGUST/2006 Mato Grosso – Rondônia Integration kV – 949 km 5 Projects Completing Norte – Sul Integration 500 kV – 720 km 6 Projects Mascarenhas – Verona 230 kV – 107 km Funil – Itapebi 230 kV – 198 km Auction 01 (August, 18 of 2006) 2,261 km US$ millions US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70 Cascavel Oeste – Foz Iguaçu 230 kV – 115 km Neves1 – Mesquita 500 kV – 172 km

37 Paraíso – Açu 230 kV – 135 km Curitiba – Bateias 500 kV – 38 km C. Novos – Videira 230 kV – 71 km Tauá – Picos 230 kV – 180 km Paracatu – Pirapora 500 kV – 260 km Ibicoara – Brumado 230 kV – 105 km Londrina – Maringá 230 kV – 83 km D. Francisca – Santa Maria 230 kV – 66 km Canoinhas – S.Mateus 230 kV – 48 km Itararé – Jaguaraíva 230 kV – 40 km Auction 02 (September) 1,026 km US$ millions US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.70 TRANSMISSION AUCTION SEPTEMBER/2006

38 OTHERS ENERGY SOURCES

39 PROINFA, co-coordinated by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and implemented by Eletrobrás, is an important instrument to the diversification of the national energy mix, once it will guarantee greater reliability and supply security. PROINFA has assured the purchase of 3,300 MW from power plants based on biomass, wind and small hydro power (SHP) to be connected to the integrated national grid (SIN). RENEWABLE ENERGY INCENTIVE PROGRAM PROINFA

40 GENERAL RESULTS Programa de Incentivo às Fontes Alternativas de Energia Elétrica - PROINFA 139 projects hired. : Total capacity 3,300 MW - 06 in operation (capacity – MW) - 36 under construction - 52 with EPCs signed Forecast 2006 – 38 power plants installed ( MW) Forecast 2007 – 101 power plants installed (2, MW) Renewable Energy Incentive Program PROINFA

41 AGRO- INDUSTRY

42 Current Situation: Number of Sugar mills/Distilleries: 313 Production: 16 million m 3 Production Capacity: 18 million m 3 Cropped Area for ethanol Production: 3 million hectares As of 2010: Investments that will amount US$ 10.0 billion in 89 plants Increase in the ethanol production (in comparison with 2005): 8 million m 3 Expansion in the sugarcane cropped area: 2 million hectares BRAZIL (Territorial Extension): 851 Total Agriculture Area: 383 of which: Fertile and free areas for agriculture: 91 Present cropped area for ethanol: 3 (in million of hectares) Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy; Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply SUGARCANE AGRO-INDUSTRY

43 FLEX-FUEL Technology Any mixture of gasoline and alcohol can be used, from 0 to 100% ; In May/2006: The domestic flex-fuel vehicle sales represented 71% of all light vehicles (including imported) sold in the same period; Total domestic flex-fuel vehicle sales ( ): 1,757,606 units. (*) 7 multinational automotive manufacturers settled in Brazil are producing 32 different models of FFV vehicles Last June, an automotive manufacturer announced that, from now on, it will going to produce FFV vehicles only. (*) until May/2006. Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade; Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers AGRI-ENERGY - ETHANOL

44 (*) Elaborated with obtained information of producing potentials and investors. Position of 31/05/06. ANP: National Petroleum Agency SRF: IRS (Internal Revenue Service) Legend: Under Construction or Project In Commercial Operation New Project Intentions In Authorization Process (ANP / SRF) 2005 to 2007 Authorized 2% 2008 to 2012 Mandatory 2% From 2013 on Mandatory 5% Number of Plants Installed Capacity (MM L/year) IN COMMERCIAL OPERATION 791 IN AUTHORIZATION PROCESS (ANP / SRF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION OR PROJECT NEW PROJECTS TOTAL 521,957 BIODIESEL: Producers in Commercial Operation and Projects Forecast (As of Dec/2007)

45 In 2005, The Federal Government has established: The mandatory B2 mixture is now anticipated for January of 2006, only for biodiesel produced by industries that have the so-called Social Fuel Certificate and commercialized in public auctions promoted by the National Agency of Petroleum – ANP. (1) And (2): One single Auction with two Lots that will take place in July, 11 th and 12 th of ANP = National Petroleum Agency Biodiesel Auctions AuctionVolume (Million liters) Deliver Nov/ Mar/ and 2007 Jul/2006 (1) ( 2) BIODIESEL AUCTIONS

46 H-BIO : A NEW BRAZILIAN TECHNOLOGY

47 Diesel oil production process that uses vegetable oils as raw materials in a petroleum refinery. Hidrogenation of the mixture: diesel + vegetable oil. H-BIO AND BIODIESEL: COMPLEMENTARY PROCESSES

48 Biodiesel Glycerin Others Refinery Hidrogen Fractions of diesel Gas Station Distributors Agribusiness Plantation Oil Crushing Grains Refined Oil Diesel H-BIO B 2 or B 5 mixture Diesel OR Transesterification Unit Ethanol orMethanol OR BIOFUELS PRODUCTION

49 Castor BeansSunflowerPalm OilCottonSoy Average Agriculture Productivity 1,500 kg/ha 1,500 kg/ha 3,000 kg/ha 20,000 kg/ha 3,000 kg/ha Percentage of Vegetable Oil 47% 42% 18% 20% 15% Vegetable Oil Production (kg/ha) , Brazilian Production in 2005 m 3 /year 90,000 23,000 5,600, , ,000 CHARGE OPTIONS FOR H-BIO PROCESS

50 OIL AND GAS

51 OIL: SELF-SUFFICIENCY

52 Refineries : (13) – nominal capacity: 2,000 thousand barrels/day New Refineries: (2) – nominal capacity: 350 thousand barrels/day Petrochemical (4) – nominal capacity: 7,500 thousand ton / year Complexes: Estimated Investiments Refineries: US$ 9 billion Petrochemical Complexes: US$ 8.5 billion REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL

53 Source: ANP May/2006 BRAZILIAN MARKET OF NATURAL GAS

54 Gas pipelines network expansion: 4,557.6 km Investment: US$ 4.5 billion Present PipelinesGas Pipes under implementation New Gas Pipes PIPELINESkm IVESTMENT US$ million Present5,688- Under Implementation 1,0761,054 New3,481.63,469 Total10,245.64,523 Marketsmillion m³/d Consumption (*)46.6 Potential until (*) Industry, automobile, residence, commerce, power generation, cogeneration and orders (including CNG). # S Northeastern Network GaseneSoutheastern Network North Network South Network Expansion GAS PIPELINES NETWORK

55 Stable rules More than US$ 1.3 billion in signature bonus US$ 16 billions in exploration and production of predicted investments (Minimum Exploratory Program) 594 awarded blocks 64 E&P concessionaries 28 from Brazil 36 foreign companies from 16 different countries Stable rules More than US$ 1.3 billion in signature bonus US$ 16 billions in exploration and production of predicted investments (Minimum Exploratory Program) 594 awarded blocks 64 E&P concessionaries 28 from Brazil 36 foreign companies from 16 different countries Perspective for th Bidding Round for Exploratories Blocks Perspective for th Bidding Round for Exploratories Blocks Sedimentary basins : 6.4 millions sq km Granted area: 332 thousand sq km (5%) Sedimentary basins : 6.4 millions sq km Granted area: 332 thousand sq km (5%) Source: MME/ANP (Feb/2006) SEVEN SUCCESSFUL ROUNDS:

56 OBJECTIVES Replace petroleum reserves to guarantee the self-sufficiency at medium and long term Replace and increase the natural gas reserves in order to enhance the production Expectation: enhancement of 30% in the natural gas offer 8TH BIDDING ROUND FOR EXPLORATORIES BLOCKS SEPTEMBER OF 2006

57 MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY PLANNING AND BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX July of 2006 Ministry Silas Rondeau


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