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Published byElvin Arendall Modified over 2 years ago

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FIGURE year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction ω = policy choice (acceptable risk) probability of extinction in T years Risk 100 Risk 24 policy choice risk scaled 0 ω year risk of extinction 100-year risk of extinction 24-year risk of extinction A BUNDANCE %0.2% 0.05% H IGHLY VIABLE % 1% 0.24% V IABLE % 5% 1.22% M AINTENANCE % 25% 6.67% C OIN FLIP % 50% 15.3% E XTINCTION % Coin flip (.89) % 100% 1.00 Risk 147 Risk 100 = 1 - [1-Risk 24 ] Risk 147 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ] 1.47 highly viable viable maintenance

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1.00 FIGURE 2. Integration of ICTRT viability & BPA short-term risk Policy choice: What level of extinction risk is acceptable? current /desired status Risk 24 coin flip (.89) extinction risk Risk 147 highly viable viable maintenance environmental baseline pessimistic ocean current actions recent ocean prospective actions historic ocean Risk 100

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FIGURE 3: Doing The Math is easy and fun! (QET=50) BPA … short-term extinction Risk 24 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ].24 ICTRT … viability criteria Risk 100 = 1 - [1-Risk 24 ] THE GAP … current vs. desired status (revisited) [1+Gap x ] -1 = α+βω 2 TRIBES … 7 generations Risk 147 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ] 1.47 ACCEPTABLE RISK … scaled (0,1) ω = {1 –.1609 log(Risk)} LIFE-CYCLE SURVIVAL (LCS) IMPROVEMENTS m = 1, … M all-H impacts ( S m ) = base or current LCS ( m ) = prospective LCS EXTINCTION RISKS (going forward) ω* = {[ ( S m / m ) – α ]/β} 1/2 … a lot is left to chance and acceptance of that risk forms the heart of the controversy - Judge Marsh, 1997

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