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FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction ω = policy choice (acceptable risk) probability of extinction in T years Risk 100.

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Presentation on theme: "FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction ω = policy choice (acceptable risk) probability of extinction in T years Risk 100."— Presentation transcript:

1 FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction ω = policy choice (acceptable risk) probability of extinction in T years Risk 100 Risk 24 policy choice risk scaled 0 ω 1 147-year risk of extinction 100-year risk of extinction 24-year risk of extinction A BUNDANCE 0 0.29%0.2% 0.05% H IGHLY VIABLE.261.47% 1% 0.24% V IABLE.527.26% 5% 1.22% M AINTENANCE.7834.5% 25% 6.67% C OIN FLIP.8963.9% 50% 15.3% E XTINCTION 1.00100% Coin flip (.89).78.52.260 50% 100% 1.00 Risk 147 Risk 100 = 1 - [1-Risk 24 ] 4.167 Risk 147 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ] 1.47 highly viable viable maintenance

2 1.00 FIGURE 2. Integration of ICTRT viability & BPA short-term risk Policy choice: What level of extinction risk is acceptable? current /desired status Risk 24 coin flip (.89).78.52.26 0.50 1.00 extinction risk Risk 147 highly viable viable maintenance environmental baseline pessimistic ocean current actions recent ocean prospective actions historic ocean Risk 100

3 FIGURE 3: Doing The Math is easy and fun! (QET=50) BPA … short-term extinction Risk 24 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ].24 ICTRT … viability criteria Risk 100 = 1 - [1-Risk 24 ] 4.167 THE GAP … current vs. desired status (revisited) [1+Gap x ] -1 = α+βω 2 TRIBES … 7 generations Risk 147 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ] 1.47 ACCEPTABLE RISK … scaled (0,1) ω = {1 –.1609 log(Risk)} LIFE-CYCLE SURVIVAL (LCS) IMPROVEMENTS m = 1, … M all-H impacts ( S m ) = base or current LCS ( m ) = prospective LCS EXTINCTION RISKS (going forward) ω* = {[ ( S m / m ) – α ]/β} 1/2 … a lot is left to chance and acceptance of that risk forms the heart of the controversy - Judge Marsh, 1997


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