1Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document & Iran’s Foreign Relations Conference onIran’s 20-Year Perspective Document and Public ParticipationSharif University of TechnologyAbbas MalekiMay, 18, 2005
2IRAN has 1% of the world’s population, 7% of the world’s natural reserves including-10% of the global proven oil reserves-16% of the world’s natural gas resources.130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions
3Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse
4What would be Iran after 20 Years? The first country in the region at economic, scientific and technology levelsline of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of becoming an “economic and technological power” over other policy areas, is very evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document which has produced the first ever official long-term macro strategy of the Islamic Republic.
5Iran and its Subregions Middle EastPersian GulfSouth West AsiaCentral Asia, Caucasus, and AfghanistanCaspian Basin
6Desired Iranian Society It describes the “desired Iranian society” for the year 2025 as follows:Secure, independent and powerfulProgressiveKnowledge-basedEconomic growth based on a large portion of social capitalGrowth of social capital through educationSociety capable of steady economic capacity building
7Economic and Technological Power The aim to become an “economic and technological power” is at the heart of Iran’s new understanding of Iran’s foreign and security relations.In other words, a consolidation of Iran’s economic significance, especially on a regional and international scale, would improve Iran’s foreign relations and national security standing.
83 Scenarios for Iran’s Future Expansionism,Isolationism,Pro DevelopmentThe 20-Year Perspective calls for Iran to become an “economic and technological power”, underscores the Islamic Republic’s desire to give economic development priority over other policy areas.
9I. R. Iran’s GoalsWhile the interrelation between economic power and foreign interaction is disputed by some analysts and intellectuals, there are good reasons to believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is pursuing an agenda of economic growth and technological advancement in order to achieve one or more of the following goals:
10I. R. Iran’s Goals (2)Increase the regime’s legitimacy among the Iranian society through improved economic conditions and higher efficiency;Consolidate Iran’s regional and international position by projecting a greater significance both as an engine of regional economic stability, and also as one of the key suppliers of energy in a tense global energy market;Secure the international respect that has been missing in Iran’s international relations.
11Five-Year Plans FociWhile the document outlines the various policies in the fields of culture, socio-political developments, foreign policy, defense, economy and environment, it also determines the foci of the five-year plans that will be drafted in the 20-year period.
12Orientations of the four upcoming five-year plans -Realization of fast-pace and sustainable growth;-Generation of sustainable employment opportunities and reduction of unemployment figures;-Creation of a competitive market environment and facilitation of Iran’s competitiveness on an international scale;-Promotion of efficiency growth, especially the efficiency of Total Factor Production (energy, capital, human resources, water etc.)-Proactive interaction with the rest of the world in all fields and mutual interrelationship between the global economy and the Iranian economy;-Promotion of entrepreneurship as well as innovative initiatives and technological and research capacity building;-Provision of food security through self-sufficiency in agricultural production;-Development of a diverse, knowledge-based economy driven by human capital and modern technologies;-Active presence in regional and international markets and participation in the international division of labor;-Generation of incentives for non-oil exports and promotion of all products that are internationally competitive;-Creation of a market environment that attracts the domestic and international business community as well as entrepreneurs focusing on security, sustainability and respect for material and intellectual property rights;-Focus on Iran’s competitive and comparative advantages and the creation of new advantages;-Containment of inflation and promotion of growing purchasing power for the lower and medium income classes;-Promotion of the role of the cooperative sector through facilitation of this sector’s access to market intelligence, technology and facilitation of greater interaction between various cooperatives;-Promotion of the role of the private and cooperative sectors in all economic activities by limiting the government role to presence in the key sectors mentioned in Article 44 of the Constitution and by making the regulatory role of the government as efficient as possible.
13Iran’s Foreign policy Preferences The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.Four groups of countries are ranked in preference:(1) Iran’s neighbours;(2) Muslim countries;(3) Third World countries;(4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.
14Iran’s New FP during Vision Document’s Era Provincial: Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq,Bilateral: Japan, Egypt, BrazilMultilateral: India and TurkmenistanRegional: GCC, ECO, CASCO,International: USA, Russia, EURelations with International Agencies: UN, IAEA, UNESCO,
15Iran’s Membership in Regional/International Organizations United Nations and its institutionsECO (Economic Cooperation Organization)OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries)ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)North-South CorridorD8 (Islamic Developed Countries)Non-Aligned Movement
16Proposed Clubs for Iran SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)Arab League
22Iran’s Foreign Relations: Conceptual Challenges Iran-US RelationsIran-EU RelationsOil priceTreaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975)Iran’s share of Hirmand river3 Iranian Islands in Persian GulfRegional CrisesCaspian legal regime
23Models for-US Iran Ties IsolationEngagementSticks and CarrotsSticksAttackMono polar Leadership
25Iran and EuropeMember ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.
26Iran and Europe (2)Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries.The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions. The physibility study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.
27Iran and Europe (3)-An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project)-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).Dialogue on Human RightsCollective Security in Iran’s Subregions:-Persian Gulf-Caucasus-The Roof of the World
29World Energy Security (1) -A perception is World should be concerned about its energy security given recent developments in the Middle East.-Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East, World has not faced problems with its energy supplies.-Over these past months, there were never any disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf beyond Iraq and what’s more.
30World Energy Security (2) Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf OPEC producers significantly increased production to fill the gap.-Reality is that the market remains well-supplied.-The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world.Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China.
38Conclusions:Iran’s Foreign policy is facing serious challenges during Iran’s 20-Year Perspective.Most of challenges are related to Iranian borders with its neighbors.Energy demand and supply equilibrium has dramatic impacts on Iran.United States different approaches to Iran will change Iran’s destiny.Looking to East is one option for Iran