Presentation on theme: "Irans 20-Year Perspective Document & Irans Foreign Relations Conference on Irans 20-Year Perspective Document and Public Participation Sharif University."— Presentation transcript:
Irans 20-Year Perspective Document & Irans Foreign Relations Conference on Irans 20-Year Perspective Document and Public Participation Sharif University of Technology Abbas Maleki May, 18, 2005
2 IRAN has 1% of the worlds population, 7% of the worlds natural reserves including -10% of the global proven oil reserves -16% of the worlds natural gas resources. 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions
3 Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse
4 What would be Iran after 20 Years? The first country in the region at economic, scientific and technology levels line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of becoming an economic and technological power over other policy areas, is very evident in Irans 20-Year Perspective Document which has produced the first ever official long-term macro strategy of the Islamic Republic.
5 Iran and its Subregions Middle East Persian Gulf South West Asia Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan Caspian Basin
6 Desired Iranian Society It describes the desired Iranian society for the year 2025 as follows: Secure, independent and powerful Progressive Knowledge-based Economic growth based on a large portion of social capital Growth of social capital through education Society capable of steady economic capacity building
7 Economic and Technological Power The aim to become an economic and technological power is at the heart of Irans new understanding of Irans foreign and security relations. In other words, a consolidation of Irans economic significance, especially on a regional and international scale, would improve Irans foreign relations and national security standing.
8 3 Scenarios for Irans Future Expansionism, Isolationism, Pro Development The 20-Year Perspective calls for Iran to become an economic and technological power, underscores the Islamic Republics desire to give economic development priority over other policy areas.
9 I. R. Irans Goals While the interrelation between economic power and foreign interaction is disputed by some analysts and intellectuals, there are good reasons to believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is pursuing an agenda of economic growth and technological advancement in order to achieve one or more of the following goals:
10 I. R. Irans Goals (2) Increase the regimes legitimacy among the Iranian society through improved economic conditions and higher efficiency; Consolidate Irans regional and international position by projecting a greater significance both as an engine of regional economic stability, and also as one of the key suppliers of energy in a tense global energy market; Secure the international respect that has been missing in Irans international relations.
11 Five-Year Plans Foci While the document outlines the various policies in the fields of culture, socio- political developments, foreign policy, defense, economy and environment, it also determines the foci of the five-year plans that will be drafted in the 20-year period.
12 Orientations of the four upcoming five-year plans -Realization of fast-pace and sustainable growth; -Generation of sustainable employment opportunities and reduction of unemployment figures; -Creation of a competitive market environment and facilitation of Irans competitiveness on an international scale; -Promotion of efficiency growth, especially the efficiency of Total Factor Production (energy, capital, human resources, water etc.) -Proactive interaction with the rest of the world in all fields and mutual interrelationship between the global economy and the Iranian economy; -Promotion of entrepreneurship as well as innovative initiatives and technological and research capacity building; -Provision of food security through self-sufficiency in agricultural production; -Development of a diverse, knowledge-based economy driven by human capital and modern technologies; -Active presence in regional and international markets and participation in the international division of labor; -Generation of incentives for non-oil exports and promotion of all products that are internationally competitive; -Creation of a market environment that attracts the domestic and international business community as well as entrepreneurs focusing on security, sustainability and respect for material and intellectual property rights; -Focus on Irans competitive and comparative advantages and the creation of new advantages; -Containment of inflation and promotion of growing purchasing power for the lower and medium income classes; -Promotion of the role of the cooperative sector through facilitation of this sectors access to market intelligence, technology and facilitation of greater interaction between various cooperatives; -Promotion of the role of the private and cooperative sectors in all economic activities by limiting the government role to presence in the key sectors mentioned in Article 44 of the Constitution and by making the regulatory role of the government as efficient as possible.
13 Irans Foreign policy Preferences The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Irans preferences in foreign policy. Four groups of countries are ranked in preference: (1) Irans neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.
14 Irans New FP during Vision Documents Era Provincial: Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bilateral: Japan, Egypt, Brazil Multilateral: India and Turkmenistan Regional: GCC, ECO, CASCO, International: USA, Russia, EU Relations with International Agencies: UN, IAEA, UNESCO,
15 Irans Membership in Regional/International Organizations United Nations and its institutions ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries) ICO (Islamic Conference Organization) North-South Corridor D8 (Islamic Developed Countries) Non-Aligned Movement
16 Proposed Clubs for Iran SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Arab League
17 A Necessary Dialogue? Asian Identity: Russia China India and Iran?
18 Energy resource periphery Energy demand heartland
19 Iran and Initiated Regional Organization Persian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan Caspian Cooperation Organization: Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan Shia Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan
20 Irans Foreign Relations: Process Leader President High National Security Council Foreign Ministry Cabinet Parliament Expediency Council
22 Irans Foreign Relations: Conceptual Challenges Iran-US Relations Iran-EU Relations Oil price Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975) Irans share of Hirmand river 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf Regional Crises Caspian legal regime
23 Models for-US Iran Ties Isolation Engagement Sticks and Carrots Sticks Attack Mono polar Leadership
24 US military in Asia
25 Iran and Europe Member ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy. Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar. In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.
26 Iran and Europe (2) Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries. The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions. The physibility study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.
27 Iran and Europe (3) -An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian -Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project) -Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan). Dialogue on Human Rights Collective Security in Irans Subregions: -Persian Gulf -Caucasus -The Roof of the World
28 World Oil Reserves
29 World Energy Security (1) -A perception is World should be concerned about its energy security given recent developments in the Middle East. -Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East, World has not faced problems with its energy supplies. -Over these past months, there were never any disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf beyond Iraq and whats more.
30 World Energy Security (2) Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf OPEC producers significantly increased production to fill the gap. -Reality is that the market remains well-supplied. -The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world. Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China.
31 Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline
32 Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka
33 PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSION Bottlenecks and Pipelines 11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational 6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational. Of particular notice: CPC BTC TCP
34 Hirmand Flow
35 Iran-Iraq New Relations
36 Nagorno Karabkh Crises
37 Confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan
38 Conclusions: Irans Foreign policy is facing serious challenges during Irans 20-Year Perspective. Most of challenges are related to Iranian borders with its neighbors. Energy demand and supply equilibrium has dramatic impacts on Iran. United States different approaches to Iran will change Irans destiny. Looking to East is one option for Iran