Presentation on theme: "1 Chapter 5 Bonds, Bond Valuation, and Interest Rates."— Presentation transcript:
1 Chapter 5 Bonds, Bond Valuation, and Interest Rates
2 Topics in Chapter Key features of bonds Bond valuation Measuring yield Assessing risk
3 Value = FCF 1 FCF 2 FCF (1 + WACC) 1 (1 + WACC) (1 + WACC) 2 Free cash flow (FCF) Market interest rates Firms business riskMarket risk aversion Firms debt/equity mix Cost of debt Cost of equity Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Net operating profit after taxes Required investments in operating capital = Determinants of Intrinsic Value: The Cost of Debt...
Interest Rates & Interest- Bearing Securities Interest rates: Based on supply & demand for money Driven by risk factors Role of Federal Reserve Basis Point.01% or
5 Risk & Term Structure of Interest Rates r d = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP r d =Required rate of return on a debt security. r*= Real risk-free rate. IP= Inflation premium. DRP= Default risk premium. LP= Liquidity premium. MRP= Maturity risk premium.
Risk & Term Structure r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP r = nominal interest rate of a particular security (or required rate of return) r* = real risk-free interest rate typically 1-4% depending on monetary policy assumes expected inflation = zero IP = Inflation premium Ave. inflation over life of bond DRP = Default risk premium Compensation for possible default Function of bond ratings 6
Risk & Term Structure r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP LP = Liquidity Premium Compensation for possible difficulty selling bond quickly at fair market value MRP = Maturity Risk Premium Compensation for possible loss in value due to increase in interest rates over maturity of bond. Affects longer maturities more than shorter. 7
Premiums Added to r* (real risk-free rate) for Different Types of Debt ST Treasury: only IP for ST inflation LT Treasury: IP for LT inflation, MRP ST corporate: ST IP, DRP, LP LT corporate: IP, DRP, MRP, LP 8
Inflation & Interest Rates Nominal Interest= 12% - Inflation -1% = Real Int. % =11% If inflation = & reqd real return = Then Nominal rate =? = 12% - 8% =4% 9 8% 11% =19%
10 Relationship b/w Nominal & Real Interest Rates, & Inflation Nom = Real + Inflation But, inflation not additive, it grows or compounds, so multiply Nom = (Real) x (Infl) And (1+Nom) = (1 + real) x (1 + infl) Is better determinant; known as Fisher effect
11 Estimating Inflation Premium (IP) Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are indexed to inflation. IP for a particular length maturity can be approximated as the difference between the yield on a non-indexed Treasury security of that maturity minus the yield on a TIPS of that maturity.
12 Bond Spreads, the DRP, and the LP A bond spread is often calculated as the difference between a corporate bonds yield and a Treasury securitys yield of the same maturity. Therefore: Spread = DRP + LP. Bonds of large, strong companies often have very small LPs. Bonds of small companies often have LPs as high as 2%.
13 Term Structure Yield Curve Term structure of interest rates: the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and maturities. A graph of the term structure is called the yield curve.
14 Hypothetical Treasury Yield Curve
What factors can explain shape of this yield curve? Upward slope due to: Increasing expected inflation Increasing maturity risk premium What about liquidity & default risk? 15
Treasury vs. Corporate Yield Curves relationships Corp yield curves are higher than Treasuries, but not necessarily parallel. Spread b/w the two yield curves widens as corporate bond rating decreases due to: DRP & LP 16
Computing Yields Estimate the inflation premium (IP) for each future year. This is the estimated average inflation over that time period. Step 2: Estimate the maturity risk premium (MRP) for each future year. 17
Assume investors expect inflation to be 5% next year, 6% the following year, and 8% per year thereafter. Step 1:Find the average expected inflation rate over years 1 to n: IP 1 = 5%/1.0 = 5.00%. IP 10 = [ (8)]/10 = 7.5%. IP 20 = [ (18)]/20 = 7.75%. Must earn these IPs to break even versus inflation; that is, these IPs would permit you to earn r* (before taxes). 18
Step 2: Find MRP based on this equation: MRP t = 0.1%(t - 1). MRP 1 = 0.1% x 0= 0.0%. MRP 10 = 0.1% x 9= 0.9%. MRP 20 = 0.1% x 19= 1.9%. Assume the MRP is zero for Year 1 and increases by 0.1% each year.
Step 3: Add the IPs and MRPs to r*: r RF t = r* + IP t + MRP t. r RF =Quoted market interest rate on treasury securities. Assume r* = 3%: r RF1 = 3% + 5% + 0.0% = 8.0%. r RF10 = 3% + 7.5% + 0.9% = 11.4%. r RF20 = 3% % + 1.9% = 12.65%.
Upward vs. Downward sloping yield curves due to? Real risk-free rate = 3% Expected inflation for Year 1 =7%, Yr 2 = 5%; Yr 3 = 3% What are interest rates for 1, 2, & 3 yr borrowings? 21
Interest Rates & MRP problem Assume the real risk-free rate (r*) is 4% and inflation is expected to be 7 percent in Year1; 4% in yr 2; and 3% thereafter. Assume all Treasury Bonds are highly liquid and free of default risk. If 2-yr and 5-yr T-Bonds both yield 11%, what is the difference in the maturity risk premiums (MRPs) on the two bonds; that is, what is MRP 5 – MRP 2 ? 22
Interest Rates & Inflation Problem Due to the recession, the rate of inflation expected for the coming year is only 3.5%. However, the rate of inflation in Yr 2 and thereafter is expected to be constant at some level above 3.5%. Assume the real risk-free rate (r*) = 2% for all maturities, and there are no maturity premiums. If 3-year T-Bonds yield 3% (0.03) more than the 1-year T-Bonds, what rate of inflation is expected after year 1? 23
Coupon Bonds Bond = Debt = Borrowing Fixed Maturity (Maturity Date) = N Par Value=Face Value=Maturity Value=$1000=FV Coupon Rate=Stated Rate (locked in in bond contract) Coupon payment= Coupon rate x face value=PMT Market Rate of interest = Yield to Maturity = rate used to discount bond CFs = I **PV cash flow of bonds always opposite sign of PMT & FV!!! 24
Bond Perspectives Debt Needs $ Borrower Issuer or seller Debtholder Cost of borrowing Interest Paid (Expense) – generates tax benefit (Svgs) Cost of Debt = R d or K d ; After-tax cost = R d (1-t) Asset Has $ Lender Buyer or Investor Bondholder Creditor Requires return to invest $ in bonds based on risk Interest Received (earned) (Revenue) - pay tax on it Capital Appreciation 25
26 Key Features of a Bond Par value: Face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000. Coupon interest rate: Stated interest rate. Multiply by par value to get dollars of interest. Generally fixed. (More…)
Key Features of a Bond Maturity: Years until bond must be repaid. Declines. Issue date: Date when bond was issued. Default risk: Risk that issuer will not make interest or principal payments. 27
Value of Financial Security Value of any asset based on the net present value of the expected future cash flows discounted by the interest (discount) rate that reflects risk factors Discount (interest rate) depends on: Riskiness of CFs reflected by DRP, MRP, LP General level of interest rates, which reflects inflation, supply & demand for $, production opportunities, time preferences for consumption 28
29 Value of a 10-year, 10% coupon bond if r d = 10% V B = $100$1, $ % ,000 V = ?... = $ $ $ = $1, (1 + r d ) 1 (1 + r d ) N
NI/YR PV PMTFV -1,000 $ $1, PV annuity PV maturity value Value of bond ====== INPUTS OUTPUT The bond consists of a 10-year, 10% annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump sum at t = 10:
31 When market interest rate (r d )rises above coupon rate, bonds value (PV or price) falls below par, so discount NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT What would happen if expected inflation rose by 3%, causing r = 13%?
NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT What happens if one year passes but the market i stays at 13%?
NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT What happens if a second year passes but the market i stays at 13%?
NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT What happens if 9 years pass but the market i stays at 13%? As a bond approaches maturity, its price approaches the face or maturity value of $1000
Bond Pricing in Excel 35
36 What would happen if inflation fell, and r d declined to 7%? If coupon rate > mrkt i% (r d ), price rises above par, and bond sells at a premium NI/YR PV PMTFV -1, INPUTS OUTPUT
Bond Pricing in Excel Years to Mat:10 Coupon rate:10% Annual Pmt:$100 Par value = FV:$1,000 Going rate, r d :7% PV = ? $
Summary of Bond price and interest rate relationships If market rate of interest increases above the stated (coupon) rate, then bonds price falls and sells at discount If market rate of interest drops below the stated (coupon) rate, then bonds price increases and sells at a premium **INVERSE RELATIONSHIP b/w Market i% and Bonds PRICE!*** 38
39 Bond prices & changing interest rates Suppose the bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if required rate of return remained at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7%?
40 M 1,372 1,211 1, r d = 7%. r d = 13%. r d = 10%. Bond Value ($) vs Years remaining to Maturity
41 Bond Price Movements over time At maturity, value of any bond must equal its par value. Value of a premium bond decreases to $1,000. Value of a discount bond increases to $1,000. A par bond stays at $1,000 if mrkt i% (r d )remains constant.
42 Whats market value of 10 year 10% coupon bond when market = 7%? Bond sells at a premium:: Price today = $1, NI/YR PV PMTFV ? INPUTS OUTPUT
43 If you buy a 10%, 10 year bond today for $1,210.71, and hold it to maturity, whats your rate of return? Solve for i% = 7% = Yield to maturity (YTM) 10 ( ) NI/YR PV PMTFV ? INPUTS OUTPUT
44 Whats yield to maturity? YTM is rate of return earned on a bond held to maturity. Also called promised yield. It assumes bond will not default. Includes both interest pmt component & cap gains over bonds life Interest rate equating bonds price today to NPV of PMTs & FV. (Think market rate of interest) Vs. Annualized Return which reflects only a one- year holding period
45 YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond selling for $ r d =? 1,000 PV 1. PV 10 PV M 887 Find i % (r d) that works!...
NI/YR PV PMTFV V INTM B = (1 + r d ) 1 (1 + r d ) N... + INT (1 + r d ) 1 1,000 (1 + r d ) N = + 90 (1 + r d ) N INPUTS OUTPUT... Find YTM (i % or r d) (1 + r d ) N
YTM in Excel Years to Mat:10 Coupon rate:9% Annual Pmt:$90.00 Current price:$ Par value = FV:$1,
48 Bond Prices & Int. Rates If coupon rate < mrkt i % (r d ), bond sells at a discount. If coupon rate = i %, bond sells at its par value. If coupon rate > i%, bond sells at a premium. If market i% rises, price falls. Price = par at maturity.
49 Find YTM if price were $1, Sells at a premium. Because coupon = 9% > mrkt i% = 7.08%, bonds value > par NI/YR PV PMTFV 7.08 INPUTS OUTPUT
50 Definitions Current yield = Interest Yield Capital gains yield =Change in value = YTM = + Exp total return Exp Curr yld Exp cap gains yld
51 Definitions Current yield = Capital gains yield = = YTM = + Annual coupon pmt Current price Change in price Beginning price Exp total return Exp Curr yld Exp cap gains yld
52 9% coupon, 10-year bond, P = $887, and YTM = 10.91% Current yield= = = 10.15%. $90 $887
53 Cap gains yield = YTM - Current yield = 10.91% % = 0.76%. Could also find values in Years 1 and 2, get difference, and divide by value in Year 1. Same answer. YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield.
54 Semiannual Bonds 1.Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2N. 2.Divide nominal rate by 2 to get periodic rate = r d /2. 3.Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT = INT/2. 2N r d /2 OK INT/2OK NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT
55 2(10) 13/2 100/ NI/YR PV PMTFV INPUTS OUTPUT Value of 10-year, 10% coupon, semiannual bond if rd = 13%.
56 Spreadsheet Functions for Bond Valuation PRICE YIELD
57 Call Provision Issuer can refund if rates decline. That helps the issuer but hurts the investor. Therefore, borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, on callable bonds. Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium Yield to call: yearly rate of return earned on a bond until its called
58 Callable Bonds and Yield to Call A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon, $1,000 par value bond is selling for $1, with an 8% yield to maturity. It can be called after 5 years at $1,050.
N I/YR PV PMT FV x 2 = 7.53% INPUTS OUTPUT Nominal Yield to Call (YTC)
60 If you bought bonds, would you be more likely to earn YTM or YTC? Coupon rate = 10% vs. YTC = r d = 7.53%. Could raise money by selling new bonds which pay 7.53%. Could thus replace bonds which pay $100/year with bonds that pay only $75.30/year. Investors should expect a call, hence YTC = 7.53%, not YTM = 8%.
61 Investor returns on callable bonds In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then coupon > market rate, so a call is likely. So, investors expect to earn: YTC on premium bonds. YTM on par & discount bonds.
62 Whats a sinking fund? Provision to pay off a loan over its life rather than all at maturity. Similar to amortization on a term loan. Reduces risk to investor, shortens average maturity. But not good for investors if rates decline after issuance.
63 Sinking funds are generally handled in 2 ways Call x% at par per year for sinking fund purposes. Call if r d is below the coupon rate and bond sells at a premium. Buy bonds on open market. Use open market purchase if r d is above coupon rate and bond sells at a discount.
64 Bond Ratings % defaulting within: S&P and FitchMoodys 1 yr. 5 yrs. Investment grade bonds: AAAAaa0.0 AAAa AA 0.6 BBBBaa Junk bonds: BBBa BB CCCCaa Source: Fitch Ratings
65 Bond Ratings and Bond Spreads (YahooFinance, March 2009) Long-term BondsYield (%)Spread (%) 10-Year T-bond 2.68 AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC
66 What factors affect default risk and bond ratings? Financial ratios Debt ratio Coverage ratios, such as interest coverage ratio or EBITDA coverage ratio Profitability ratios Current ratios (More…)
67 Bond Ratings Median Ratios (S&P) Interest coverage Return on capital Debt to capital AAA %12.4% AA %28.3% A %37.5% BBB %42.5% BB %53.7% B1.28.7%75.9% CCC0.43.2%113.5%
68 Other Factors that Affect Bond Ratings Provisions in the bond contract Secured versus unsecured debt Senior versus subordinated debt Guarantee provisions Sinking fund provisions Debt maturity (More…)
70 Interest rate (or price) risk for 1- year and 10-year 10% bonds i % 1-year Change 10-year Change 5%$1,048$1,386 10%1, % 1, % 15% % % Interest rate risk: Rising mrkt i % (r d ) causes bonds price to fall.
,000 1,500 0%5%10%15% 1-year 10-year rdrd Value
72 What is reinvestment rate risk? The risk that CFs will have to be reinvested at future lower rates, reducing income. Illustration: Suppose you just won $500,000 playing the lottery. Youll invest the money and live off interest. You buy a 1-year bond with a YTM of 10%.
73 Year 1 income = $50,000. At year-end get back $500,000 to reinvest. If rates fall to 3%, income will drop from $50,000 to $15,000. Had you bought 30-year bonds, income would have remained constant.
74 The Maturity Risk Premium Long-term bonds: High interest rate risk, low reinvestment rate risk. Short-term bonds: Low interest rate risk, high reinvestment rate risk. Nothing is riskless! Yields on longer term bonds usually are greater than on shorter term bonds, so the MRP is more affected by interest rate risk than by reinvestment rate risk.
Other types of Bonds Zero coupon: Pays no coupon & disct below par Convertible: To bondholders option Income: Pays interest only if interest earned by issuer; wont bankrupt co. 75
Other types of Bonds Revenue: Interest paid from revenue generated by project being financed by bonds Floating rate: Adjusts coupon rate periodically based on market interest rates 76
77 Bankruptcy Two main chapters of Federal Bankruptcy Act: Chapter 11, Reorganization Chapter 7, Liquidation Typically, company wants Chapter 11, creditors may prefer Chapter 7.
78 If company cant meet its obligations, it files under Chapter 11. That stops creditors from foreclosing, taking assets, and shutting down the business. Company has 120 days to file a reorganization plan. Court appoints a trustee to supervise reorganization. Management usually stays in control.
79 Company must demonstrate in its reorganization plan that it is worth more alive than dead. Otherwise, judge will order liquidation under Chapter 7.
80 If the company is liquidated, heres the payment priority: Past due property taxes Secured creditors from sales of secured assets. Trustees costs Expenses incurred after bankruptcy filing Wages and unpaid benefit contributions, subject to limits Unsecured customer deposits, subject to limits Taxes Unfunded pension liabilities Unsecured creditors Preferred stock Common stock
81 In a liquidation, unsecured creditors generally get zero. This makes them more willing to participate in reorganization even though their claims are greatly scaled back. Various groups of creditors vote on the reorganization plan. If both the majority of the creditors and the judge approve, company emerges from bankruptcy with lower debts, reduced interest charges, and a chance for success.