Presentation on theme: "Sixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh ( )"— Presentation transcript:
1Sixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh (2011-15) Presentation byDr. Muhammad G. SarwaratCivil Service College, Dhaka14 June 2011
2Presentation Contents PRSP: a critiquePRSP versus Mid-Term (5 Year) PlanGrowth Performance of the Bangladesh Economy in different Plan periodsSixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh
3PRSP: a critique PRSP is an externally (WB & IMF) induced document Theoretical underpinning of PRSP is ‘Washington Consensus’ based liberal market economics where role of state in development is minimalExpected support for implementation of PRSP is not being fulfilled
4PRSP versus Mid-Term (5 Year) Plan PRSP is a development strategy document, not a development plan documentIn PRSP market mechanism is the driving force of development, where as in 5 Year Plan Governments play crucial role in developmentPRSP is stakeholders participation based development framework, where as 5 Year Plan is a technical document based on CGEM, IOM, SAM. etc
5Growth Performance of the Bangladesh Economy in different Plan periods GDP Growth Targets (%)RealizedGrowth (%)First Five Year Plan ( )5.54.0Two Year Plan ( )5.63.52nd Five Year Plan ( )5.43.83rd Five Tear Plan ( )4th Five Year Plan ( )5.04.25th Five Year Plan ( )7.05.2-5.3
6Sixth FYP as First Phase of Perspective Plan 2010 - 2021 Perspective Plan would be implemented in two phased by preparing and implementing two Five Year Plans:Sixth Five Year Plan 2011 – 2015; andSeventh Five Year Plan
7Preparation of Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15 Technical Frameworkan input–output table (with base set at FY 06 or FY 07);a macroeconomic consistency model of SFYP based on the input-output framework; andan employment matrix18 background studies
8Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: the concept note Major sources for setting SFYP development goals and targets:Constitution of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (Articles 9–20);Election Manifesto of the Bangladesh Awami League 2008; andAgreed global and regional development goals like MDGs and SDGs.
9Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets Important targets set for the economy are:Secure and sustain an annual level of GDP growth of 8 percent by 2013 and raise it to 10 percent from 2017;Bring down the percentage of disadvantaged people living below the poverty line to 15 percent by 2021;Ensure a minimum of 2,122 k. cal/person/day of food to all poor people and standard nutritional food to at least 85 percent of the population by 2021;Ensure 100 percent net enrolment at primary level by 2010, provide free tuition up to the degree level by 2013, attain full literacy by 2014, and ensure that Bangladesh is known as a country of educated people with skills in information technology;
10Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets (contd.) Achieve self sufficiency in food by 2012;Ensure living accommodation for the entire population by 2015, supply of pure drinking water for the entire population by 2011, and bring each house under hygienic sanitation by 2013;Eliminate all kinds of contagious diseases and increase life expectancy of citizens to 70 years by 2021;Reduce maternal mortality to 1.5 percent, raise the use of birth control methods to 80 percent, and bring down infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births by 2021;Change the sectoral composition of output with the shares of agriculture, industry, and services standing at 15 percent, 40 percent, and 45 percent respectively in 2021;
11Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets (contd.) Reduce underemployment rate to 15 percent along with changing employment shares of agriculture, industry, and services to 30 percent, 25 percent, and 45 percent respectively in 2021;Generate 7,000 megawatt of electricity by 2013, raise it to 8,000 megawatt in 2015, and make provision to meet the expected demand for power of 20,000 megawatt in 2021.
12Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: approach Inclusive Economic GrowthEnhancing Economic GrowthEmployment CreationUniversal Social Protection for the Hardcore PoorRole of Market, State and Community in Economic GrowthPublic–Private Partnership (PPP)Regional and Sub-Regional PlanningGender Responsive PlanTechnology Base for ‘Digital Bangladesh’
13Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: approach (contd.) Human Resource DevelopmentEnvironment and Climate ChangeGood Governance, Human Rights and Democratic PolityOperational Linkage between Planning and BudgetingRegional / Sub-Regional Economic IntegrationLeast-Cost National SecurityImplementation and Monitoring
14Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: background studies A Study on Macroeconomic Framework and Financial Sector Development for the Sixth Five Year Plan;A Review of Fiscal and Other Macro Incentives in the Manufacturing Sector: Implications for Future Policies;A Study on SMEs Development in Bangladesh with emphasis on Policy Constraints and Financing;Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Development in Bangladesh and Issues in Privatization of SOEs;A Study on Power and Energy Development and Management: Benchmark Analysis and Future Policies;A Study on Crop Agriculture and Agrarian Reforms in Bangladesh: Present Status and Future Options
15Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: background studies (contd.) A Study on Developing Non-Crop Agriculture in Bangladesh: Present Status and Future Development;A Study on Strategies for Coping with Climate Change, Environment sustainability, and Natural Disasters in Bangladesh;Alternative Modes of Financing for the Sixth Five Year Plan;A Study on the National Security in Bangladesh: Strategies and Cost EffectivenessA Study on Employment and the Labor Marker: A Guide to Employment Policies for the Sixth Five Year Plan;A Study on Education and HRD: Quality and Management Issues in Bangladesh;
16Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: background studies (contd.) A Study on Universal Social Protection Strategy: Hard Core Poverty and Safety Nets Programs in Bangladesh;A Study on Health, Nutrition, and Population Planning in Bangladesh;Emerging Issues in Income Growth of Rural Households, Development of Non-Farm Activities and Safety Net Provisions;A Study on Export Promotion and External Issues: Present Status and Future Developments;Towards Digital Bangladesh: Prospects and Constraints in Developing ICT Sector; andUrbanization Management and Emerging Regional Disparity in Bangladesh: Policies and Strategies for Decentralized Economic Growth.
17Alternative GDP Growth Scenarios in the 6th FYP FY11-15 averageBaseline Scenario126.96.36.199.97.1Medium Policy Shift Scenario6.57.07.58.07.2High Policy Shift Scenario8.59.07.8
22Macroeconomic Balances under Baseline Growth Scenario for SFYP Real GDP growth (%)188.8.131.52.76.97.1Inflation (%)6.5G. Investment(B. Tk)1608.31816.32055.42333.72681.53110.82399.5National Savings (B. Tk)2268.12453.12689.23013.53371.33810.93067.6Govt. Revenue (B. Tk)769.7886.51023.21181.11363.61572.11205.3Govt. Exp.1120.21272.61444.41649.91885.02154.31681.2Export (B. US $)17.619.621.924.527.430.924.9Import (B. US $)22.024.727.731.335.540.331.9Remittance(B. US $)10.711.813.415.016.518.1
23Macroeconomic Balances under Mid Policy shift Growth Scenario for SFYP Real GDP growth (%)184.108.40.206.07.58.07.1Inflation (%)220.127.116.11G. Investment (b.tk)1608.31932.62303.82745.13272.53895.52830.0National Savings (b. tk)2268.12511.42970.63355.03874.84457.63433.9Govt. Revenue (b.tk)769.7903.81061.71247.91466.31722.61280.5Govt. Exp.(b. tk)1120.21283.91474.61696.91961.12270.91737.5Export (b. us$)17.619.822.525.629.534.426.4Import(b. us$)22.025.028.933.338.645.234.2Remittance10.711.913.214.917.018.215.1
24Macroeconomic Balances under High Policy shift Growth Scenario for SFYP Real GDP growth (%)18.104.22.168.08.59.07.8Inflation (%)6.46.6G. Investment(b. tk)1608.31959.82475.02991.23542.24188.13031.3National Savings (b. tk)2268.12592.63106.83568.04110.04679.93611.5Govt. Revenue769.7913.11095.21312.41558.11839.81343.7Govt. Exp. (b. tk)1120.21313.61537.51798.22098.82448.21839.3Export (b. us$)17.620.123.026.731.336.927.6Import (b. us$)22.025.529.935.341.749.636.4Remittance (b. us$)10.722.214.171.1248.822.716.9
25Areas of Improvement for higher Growth during SFYP Private sector will play the prime role;Public investment and policies shall create necessary investment climate in areas like:Energy supply including electricity and gas;Infrastructure including roads, railways, embankment and dykes;Telecommunication;Ports;Legal and administrative system including property rights;Project implementation capacity;Governance including law and order;Market incentives; andSound monetary policy and public finance management