Presentation on theme: "Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in Asia."— Presentation transcript:
Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in Asia
Presentation Outline Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in Asia Types of Energy Related CDM Projects Potential CDM projects by sector Marginal Abatement Costs of Some Cleaner Power Projects Final Remarks
Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions
CO 2 Emissions, Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP in OECD and Developing Asia during1990 -1999 Source: IEA 2001 OECD Developing Asia
CO2 Emissions: Share of Developing Asia, OECD and other Regions Source: IEA 2001 19811999 Asia OECD
Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Supply and CO2 Emission during 1990-2000 GDP (1995$) TPESCO 2 OECD2.251.651.12 Japan1.291.821.15 Developing Asia6.684.303.23 China9.843.602.80 India5.454.694.57 Thailand4.368.097.22 Malaysia6.568.136.87 South Korea6.458.026.65 Source IEA 2001 TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply Growth of energy requirement and CO 2 in Asia is way above that of OECD countries
CO 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South Asia) Energy and CO 2 intensity in major countries much higher than OECD average Data source: EIA website, March 2004
CO 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South East Asia) Energy Intensity and CO 2 intensity are not only higher but also increasing in most countries Data source: EIA website, March 2004
CO 2 and Energy intensity and Fossil fuel dependence (Other Asia) Energy and CO 2 intensity of China and Mongolia are very high compared to OECD average, though show a declining trend Data source: EIA website, March 2004
Projected CO 2 emissions 2000-2025 Without significant efforts in mitigation, Developing country contribution to total world emissions will be higher than Developed countries by 2020. Data source: EIA website, March 2004
Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability Climate Change could adversely affect many developing countries in the long run GHG Mitigation would enhance sustainable development
Cereal Production Impact of Climate Change CGCM1, 2080s Source: http://www.gfse.at/publ/Powerpoint/18%20Februar/18February_P2_01_IIASA_Shah.ppt
Fossil fuel consumption increase has both long and short term implications On Environment – e.g., increased air pollution On economy – e.g., dependency on imports of energy
PM 10 concentration (1999) in selected cities in the world Out of 16 cities in the world with PM 10 concentration > 100 micrograms/m 3, 15 cities are in Asia and 14 of them are in China and India. Source: World Development Indicators 2003
SO 2 concentration (1990-98) in the selected cities in the world Out of 30 cities exceeding WHO guideline in the world, 23 cities are in Asia and 20 cities are only in China. Source: World Development Indicators 2003
Implications of growth on Development Energy import dependency, % Country/Region19902000 China-3.45.9 India16.127.1 Other South Asia40.245.5 South East Asia-37.7-4.0 Developing Asia1.111.6 OECD28.029.8 Data source: IEA (2002b) Import dependency is increasing Higher important dependency can make economies vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices This introduces long term growth uncertainties
Fuel Import Dependency of Thailand under CO 2 reduction targets
Primary Energy Mix under CO 2 Emission Reduction Targets (1) Significant Biomass use at all ER target Coal use under ER15 Noticeable in Oil use under ER15. Natural gas share
What does Renewable Energy imply for Sustainable Development? Biomass – example of sustainable energy resource Biomass resource development helps mitigate GHG emissions and provides sustainable development benefits through rural employment generation RETs like wind, solar, hydro also improve the local environment CDM+Sustainable Development?
Total cumulative NO 2 emission in ER15 8.6% less than in Base case during 2000-2030 Total NO x EmissionTotal SO 2 Emission Total cumulative SO 2 emission in ER15 35.4% less than in Base case during 2000-2030 SO 2 reduction higher than NO 2 NO 2, SO 2 Emissions in Thailand under CO 2 Reduction Targets
The Factors for high CO 2 growth in developing countries High growth in GDP High dependence on fossil fuel Inefficient use of energy resources What prospects for CDM?
Sectoral Energy Related CO 2 Emission in Asian Countries
Sectoral contribution to National CO 2 eq. emissions What are the sources of GHG emissions? And how big? AZERBAIJAN BANGLA- DESHBHUTAN CAMBO- DIA INDO- NESIA PAK- ISTAN Total Emissions and Removals (Gg) 598867641963259445883198155287 Energy (%) 87.9125.9315.002.9920.1053.50 Fugitive emissions (% of energy emissions) 17.680.740.00 10.777.01 Industrial Process (%) 2.411.9521.160.080.007.26 Manure Management (%) 1.052.010.00 2.59 Forest and Grassland conversion (Gg) -5.862.320.0076.0634.330.00 Solid Waste (%) 2.241.210.000.010.001.24 Wastewater treatment 1.090.00 0.13 GHG emissions from National Communications ( year 1994)
Contribution to country CO 2 eq emissions MALAY- SIA PHILI- PPINESSRI LANKA SOUTH KOREATHAILANDVIETNAM Total Emissions and Removals (Gg) 1441931548125669628511530762129185 Energy (%) 58.5431.8643.9785.7742.1385.96 Fugitive emissions (% of energy) 14.760.460.012.113.143.91 Industrial Process (%) 3.456.840.536.185.1913.04 Manure Management (%) 1.090.001.740.030.950.01 Forest and Grassland conversion (Gg) 5.3042.346.610.0019.720.19 Solid Waste (%) 15.192.7517.410.000.134.77 Wastewater treatment 3.201.220.022.170.110.13
Sectoral Share in CO 2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000 Source: World energy Council Electricity, Manufacturing & Industry and Transport are the main source of energy related emissions In Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China and Thailand electricity sector contributes 30-50% of energy related CO 2 emissions
Sectoral Share in CO 2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000 Transport sector contributes around 30% in Srilanka, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam Manufacturing accounts for over 30% in China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam
Types of Energy Related CDM projects – Energy efficiency improvement projects – Fuel switching to cleaner fossil fuels – Renewables projects – Cogeneration – Other projects
What are the prospects for energy efficiency related CDM projects? Gaps in energy efficiency can provide the answer
Efficiency gaps in P ower sector (1) Supply Side – Generation efficiency gap – T & D efficiency gap Demand side – End use energy efficiency gap
Potential CDM projects in Power sector (2) Efficiency Gaps in Power Sector Large gap in generation efficiency of coal fired plants between most Asian countries and the best practice country (BPC) in the world. Coal fired power generation in Asia are approximately 9% less efficient as compared to that in OECD. The efficiency gaps are obviously much larger when they are measured with reference to the efficiency of the best available technology (BAT). There exists a large potential for the reduction of coal consumption and CO 2 emission if the electricity generation is based on BAT or best practiced technology (BPT) instead of the existing inefficient technologies. Generation Efficiency Gaps
Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps – Coal Efficiency gain by 1% in China and India would reduce CO 2 by 24 and 11.6 million tonne respectively in 2000 Best Practice efficiency Eff. gap Data source: IEA, 2002
Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - Gas Data source: IEA, 2002 Best Practice efficiency Eff. gap
Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses Large transmission and distribution efficiency gaps 05101520253035 OECD China Thailand Malaysia World Indonesia Asia Vietnam Phillipines Sri Lanka Pakistan India Cambodia Myanmar Percent (%)
Potential CDM projects in Power sector (5) Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses (contd..) T&D losses as a percentage of total generation in some Asian countries range from 14 % in Vietnam to as high as 32 % in Myanmar. T&D losses in a well designed system can normally be within 10%, reducing technical losses appears to be a promising option for reducing the generation requirements as well as reductions CO 2 emissions. 1 % of T&D loss reduction in Pakistan from 1995 to 2018 would result in cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 24 to 26 million tons. Gross savings per kW of power demand avoided due to T&D loss reduction could be in the range of $ 1372 to 1770, which are significantly higher than the new T&D capacity cost per kW. (Shrestha and Azhar, 1998)
End-use Device Efficiency Gaps – Lamps: Lighting accounts for a large share in residential sectoral electricity consumption (e.g., 28% in India, 32.8% in Pakistan, 32% in Sri Lanka). Incandescent lamps, which use 3 to 4 times more electrical energy than compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) are most widely used in many Asian developing countries, e. g. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. – Air conditioners (ACs): Air conditioning accounts for a major share of electricity consumption in the commercial sector. Its share varies from 20% in Pakistan to 70% in Thailand. However, the widely used ACs in Thailand till few years ago used about 45% more electrical power than the efficient ones. – Electric motors: Mostly, standard motors are used as industrial drives in India, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. They are also used for agricultural water pumping in India. The efficiency of these motors is, however 3 to 7% less than that of energy efficient motors.
What environmental Benefits from improved energy efficiency in the power sector? CountryPlanning Period CO 2 (10 6 tons) Emission reduction SO 2 (10 3 tons) Emission reduction NO x (10 3 tons) Emission reduction NREB, India2003-175381,744965 Pakistan2000-1492206.313 Sri Lanka2000-17224832 Thailand2003-1762651134 Vietnam2003-17115123391 Source: Shrestha and Bhattacharya (1998) and Shrestha and Bhattacharya (2002)
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Cleaner Thermal CDM Projects in Selected Asian Countries Wide variations in MAC for CTTs: IGCC: 12 $/tonne (Thailand) to 83 $/tonne of CO 2 (Sri Lanka) PFBC: 100 $/tonne (Thailand) to 115 $/tonne CO 2 (Sri Lanka) CC-LNG: 31 $/tonne CO 2 (Sri Lanka) Source: ARRPEEC (2003)
Incremental cost of CO 2 Abatement ($/ton CO 2 ) in Thailand during 2000 – 2030 The average incremental cost of CO 2 abatement (IAC) would increase from $28 per ton of CO 2 in ER5 case to $111 per ton of CO 2 in ER15 case. At IAC of 28 $/tCO 2, about 142 million tons of CO 2 could be mitigated (cumulative) during 2010-2030. At IAC of $46/ tCO 2 and $111/tCO 2, 468 and 978 million tons of CO 2 (cumulative) could be reduced respectively.
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Renewable CDM Projects in Selected Asian Countries In a study of selected RETs based CDM projects in Yunnan- China, NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet nam by ARRPEEC (2003) wide variations in MAC are observed: Solar PV: 12 $/tonne to 364 $/tonne of CO2 Wind:11 $/tonne to 36 $/tonne of CO2 Geothermal: 5 $/tonne to 73 $/tonne of CO2 BIGCC: 3 $/tonne to 94 $/tonne of CO2 Mini-Hydro: 2.2 $/tonne of CO2 (Thailand) Limited prospect under presently relatively low CER price.
Energy efficiency gap in steel making Bars for each country / region refers to years 1980, 1990, and 2000 in that order Source: www.worldenergy.org/ date 20 th March 2004www.worldenergy.org/ Efficiency gap between Asian developing countries and Japan 0.4 toe/ton
Energy efficiency gap in cement production Source: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ies/iespubs/45292.pdf Emissions reduction of 29.7 Million tonne of CO 2 in India and 260 million tonne of CO 2 in China if both countries can achieve best practice efficiency
Potential for Cogeneration in ASEAN Source: www.cogen2.netwww.cogen2.net Date: 16 th March 2004
Sugar industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential Sugar industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential CountrySugar cane production (1,000 tonnes) Bagasse production (1,000 tonnes) Max. Power Generation Potential (GWh/year) Indonesia31,0008,9902,997 Philippines21,0006,0902,030 Thailand54,00015,6605,220 Vietnam12,0003,4801,160 Total118,00034,22011,407 Bagasse = Sugar cane * 0.29; 1 kWh = 3 kg of bagasse (including steam for process) Source: www.cogen3.net (Date: 16 th March 2004)www.cogen3.net
Palm oil industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential Palm oil industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential CountryFFB production (1,000 tonnes) Residue production (1,000 tonnes) Max.Power Generation Potential ( GWh/year) Indonesia25,00010,5004,200 Malaysia42,00017,6407,056 Philippines30012650 Thailand2,300966386 Total69,60029,23211,693 Residue = Fresh Fruit Bunch * 0.42; 1 kWh = 2.5 kg of residues (including steam for process) Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16 th March 2004www.cogen3.net
Rice industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential Rice industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential CountryPaddy production (1,000 tonnes) Rice husk production (1,000 tonnes) Max. Power Generation Potential (GWh/year) Indonesia51,00011,2207,480 Malaysia2,000440293 Philippines11,0002,4201,613 Thailand22,0004,8403,227 Vietnam28,0006,1604,107 Total114,00025,08016,720 Rice husk = Paddy * 0.22; 1 kWh = 1.5 kg of rice husk (including steam for process) Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16 th March 2004www.cogen3.net
Final Remarks Energy efficiency gaps and high dependence on fossil fuel present challenges as well as opportunity: CDM as vehicle for Sustainable Development Not all energy efficient and renewable technologies necessarily meet the economic criterion for CDM projects. Economic viability also depends upon the market for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Presently, demand for CER is low hence the low price for CER (2 to 3 $/t CO 2 ). Several energy efficient technologies (EET) and RET projects may appear economically unattractive as CDM projects at present due to low market demand and price for CER. However if countries like U.S. and Russia are to ratify the Kyoto protocol, market for CDM will grow significantly, resulting in higher CER prices and more CDM projects would than be economically attractive.
Incremental CO 2 abatement cost for a CDM project can vary across countries. Regional level energy development may offer larger potential for CDM projects in South Asia. Careful cost benefit analysis of potential projects necessary Capacity building is essential for CDM project preparation and implementation in the South Asian countries. Final Remarks (2)
Specific energy consumption of various types of brick Kilns ( tonnes of coal equivalent per 100, 000 bricks ) Clamp Kiln: 30-48 Bulls Trench Kiln: 20-24 Fixed Chimney: 16-20 Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln: 10-13
Potential and installed capacity of selected RETs in selected Asian Countries Potential Installed Capacity (MW) Country Solar Wind (MW) Biomass (MW) Mini Hydro (MW) Solar (PV) Wind Biomass Mini Hydro India 7 kWh/ m 2 /day 20,000 17,000 10,000 57 1702 98 217 Sri Lanka 5.4 kWh/m2/day 200 10,000 88 0.360 3 - 12.5 Nepal 3-4 kWh/m2/day 200 0.130 - - 4.87 Source: www. teriin.org; RETs Asia, 2003; Wind Energy Monthly
Marginal Abatement Costs in the Power sector $/tonne of CO 2 at 1998 prices MAC Ranges from: 1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO 2 at 5% reduction target 2.8 to 12.5 $/tonne of CO 2 at 10% reduction target 3.1 to 7.3 $/tonne of CO 2 at 15% reduction target Country/Regions 5%10%15%20%30% Yunnan-China1.04.37.37.910.6 NREB-India220.127.116.11 - - Sri Lanka -12.5 -15.518.3 Thailand18.104.22.168.54.3 Vietnam22.214.171.124.15.5 CO 2 emission reduction targets Source: ARRPEEC (2003)
Average unit consumation of energy for cement production
Potential CO 2 emission from Cement – Project by Cement plant in India – increasing flyash content in cement from 10% to 13% - results in emission reduction from 0.813 tCO2/t cement (process emission + thermal energy emission + electricity energy emission) – for a annual production of 1.83 million ton production emission reduction is 22467 tCO2
Energy related CO 2 emission by region Developing countries CO 2 emission to exceed that of industrialized countries by 2025. Presents challenges and opportunities for mitigation.
Implications of growth on Development Increased urban pollution – developing country cities are the most polluted cities today
Major sources of emission Energy consumption is the major source of GHG emissions In some countries Fugitive emissions (Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan) fugitive emissions from gas production are significant Industrial process emissions for almost all some countries are significant – cement sector primarily Solid waste and industrial waste related emissions for Malaysia, Sri lanka, Kyrgyzstan are significant Forest and Grassland conversions represent deforestation related emissions – countries like Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia have very high emissions from this category
Sustainable development Issues in growth in energy requirement – Huge investment outlay to meet the growth Energy production infrastructure ( USD 1000 billion in next 10 years for India to meet just the electricity generation infrastructure) Energy distribution infrastructure – Import dependency can seriously affect economic stability – Environmental implications Urban air pollution due to increased fuel use in transportation Waste generation and disposal (e.g., coal ash) Indoor health issues in rural areas Acid rains – SO 2 emissions in South Asia and South East Asia are expected to grow 150% and 200% over 2002 by 2030 under certain growth scenarios
Sustainable development Waste management – MSW in South Asia and South East Asia 150% and 100% (200 million ton and 100 million ton respectively) by 2030 – Air and water pollution from disposal of solid waste in urban areas – Water pollution from industrial waste – Opportunity cost of Land for disposal of waste is high – a serious problem – Agriculture residue and animal waste in rural area - air pollution as well as loss of resource Forests – Ecological impacts of forest degradation and deforestation – Loss of livelihoods for population dependent on forest in developing countries – Climatic impacts on forest will be enhanced
Types of CDM projects & SD Energy sector – key to sustainable economic development – Reducing costs of energy infrastructure Efficiency in supply (better technologies; cogeneration) Efficiency in use (steel, cement, waste heat recovery, residential, etc. ) – Environmental benefits Fuel options (coal to oil/gas; oil to gas; fossil fuel to renewable energy) Use of agri waste and renewable to meet rural energy demand
Types of CDM projects & SD Waste management – Urban solid waste – methane capture and use Reduce air pollution Reduce water pollution Reduce requirement for land Provides alternative energy resources lower dependence on fossil fuel – Agriculture residue and animal waste Indoor health using biogas Rural electricity – residential and for economic growth Forests – ecological protection
Submitted W-t-E projects Project Title Waste handled per day (tonne) Annual Electricity produced (MWh) Emission reduction (methane capture) (T CO 2 eq) Emission reduction (fossil fuel displaced) (T CO 2 eq Other benefits Salvador Landfill capture 3150315000904942157500 Biomethana tion, Lucknow 300400001018483000075 tpd of organic manure Landfill gas capture, Brazil 200028851000 Durban landfill 6780038451256960
CDM – SD in developing countries Climate Development Environment CDM and SD space Energy (supply and demand) Waste management (urban and agriculture) Forestry
Share of Energy Sector GHG Emissions IEA estimates that at the global level, carbon emissions from energy related activities represent about 70% of all GHG emissions. Non-carbon energy-related emissions represent another 10-15%. Source: World Energy Council (http://www.worldenergy.org/ accessed on 3 March 2004 )http://www.worldenergy.org/ The U.S. energy sector CO 2 emission in 1997 accounted for 86% of total GHG emissions of the country (Toman, 2001).
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South Asian Countries, 2000 Commercial Energy Consumption 1 Total (Quadrillion Btu) Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectric Other Carbon Dioxide Emissions 3 (Million metric tons of carbon) Bangladesh 0.50 30% 68% 1% 0% 1% 0% 7.7 Bhutan 0.01 24% 0% 21% 0% 55% 0% 0.1 India 12.67 32% 7% 53% 1% 6% 0.2% 253.3 Maldives 0.004 100% 0% 0% 0.1 Nepal 0.06 57% 0% 14% 0% 24% 5% 0.8 Pakistan 1.91 41% 42% 5% 0% 12% 0% 29.5 Sri Lanka 0.18 78% 0% 22% 0% 2.6 Total 15.28 34% 13% 44% 1% 7% 0.2% 294.1 Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, May 2002 Share of fossil fuels ranges from 45% (Bhutan) to 99% (Bangladesh). Coal share highest in India (53%).
Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions in South-east Asian Countries, 2000 Total (Quad BTU) Petrole um Natural GasCoalHydroNuclear Geotherm al etc.CO2 Cambodia0.0194.630.00 5.370.00 0.15 China39.6725.773.1363.956.910.430.03831.74 Indonesia4.6346.9427.8419.592.260.001.1187.13 Korea, North2.846.160.0086.047.800.00 67.19 Korea, South8.0655.0610.2421.040.3013.280.06120.80 Laos0.0136.730.000.1891.150.00 0.10 Malaysia2.2742.0642.123.623.270.00 36.15 Mongolia0.0726.530.0071.520.00 1.59 Philippines1.2556.740.5516.326.550.0020.3618.62 Thailand2.9055.7828.1712.682.220.000.8348.49 Vietnam0.7650.546.2620.2622.940.00 12.56 CO 2 emission are in million metric ton of CO 2 equivalent; Energy consumption by fuel source is in %age
Technical Potential for Primary Energy Savings in Steel making in 1995 If India reduces energy intensity of steel production by 10% (3.7 GJ/tonne) – total energy saved will be 88 million GJ (4.6 million tonnes of Coal equivalent) per year in 1995
Potential CDM projects in industrial sector Iron and Steel industry Cement industry Co-generation: Co - generation efficiency = upto 90% Conventional power efficiency = about 35% – Sugar Industry – Pulp and Paper Industry Efficient brick kilns Electricity DSM programs in industry
CO 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence Higher growth rates of non-OECD energy and CO2 emissions due to : Significantly higher energy and CO2 emission intensities Higher dependence on fossil fuels Higher GDP growth rates Data source: EIA website, March 2004
Natural Gas Reserves in Selected Asian Countries
CDM projects through regional energy trade/development in South Asia Hydropower development (e.g. in Nepal and Bhutan) – Displacement of thermal in India and other countries Natural gas based electricity generation - Exploration and regional development of gas pipeline in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh Fuel switching : oil to gas in transport sector coal/oil to gas in industrial boilers coal/oil to gas for cooking
Potential CDM projects in Transport sector Electric vehicles (with Non thermal power supply) Electric rope - ways (with Non thermal power supply) Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) (with Non thermal power supply) Use of Bio-diesel/ethanol/methanol etc.
Potential CDM projects in Residential sector Cooking – Use of biogas as a cooking fuel – Improved cook stoves – Biomass plantation for fuelwood Lighting – CFL, Slim tubes, electronic ballast Water heating – Solar Water heater
Types of steel projects pulverized coal injection up to 40% in the blast furnace (primary steel) Heat recovery from sinter plants and coke ovens (primary steel) Recovery of process gas from coke ovens, blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces – Steel plant in India, producing 1.6 million ton steel has submitted CDM project for recovery of BOF gas (80 NM3 per ton of steel with calorific value 2000 kcal/NM3) – will result in 94.84 GWh of electricity and resultant emission reduction of 87895 tCO 2. (15 MWh coal power plant) Power recovery from blast furnace offgases (primary steel)
Types of steel projects Replacement of open-hearth furnaces by basic oxygen furnaces (primary steel); Application of continuous casting and thin slab casting; Scrap preheating in electric arc furnaces (secondary steel); Oxygen and fuel injection in electric arc furnaces (secondary steel); Efficient ladle preheating;