Presentation on theme: "Patricia M. Mohr Vice-President, Economics & Commodity Market Specialist The Scotiabank Group, Toronto Seminar on Surviving the Global Financial Crisis."— Presentation transcript:
Patricia M. Mohr Vice-President, Economics & Commodity Market Specialist The Scotiabank Group, Toronto Seminar on Surviving the Global Financial Crisis in the Mining Sector Mine Africa Radisson Admiral Harbourfront Toronto, Ontario February 28, 2009 The Outlook for Commodity Prices and the Global Mining Industry
Commodity Price Upswing This Decade On a Par With 1970s Expansion Scotiabank Commodity Price Index 1 Index: 1997=100 All Items October 2001 Bottom Scotiabank Commodity Price Index, % change yr/yr December 2002 December 2003 December 2004 December 2005 December 2006 December 2007 17.9% 17.3% 19.0% 24.4% 5.4% 10.4% (January 2009, % change yr/yr) All Items-19.6 Oil & Gas-38.9 Metals & Minerals-8.5 Forest Products-6.0 Agriculture-20.9 New record high in July 2008 at 226% above cyclical low Arab Oil Embargo A trade-weighted U.S. dollar-based index of principal Canadian exports. Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods. Scotiabank Commodity Price Index edged up in January. *
The Bull-Run in commodities continued in 2008:H1 due to ongoing strength in Chinas GDP growth, under-investment in oil & gas and metals during the 1990s and delays in expanding capacity this decade. Interest by investment funds in commodities as a hedge against a declining U.S. dollar and a major rejuvenation in international grain & oilseed prices – linked to biofuel development and tight global supplies – also pushed up commodity prices. Fertilizer prices (especially potash) rose to record levels. However, after reaching a cyclical peak in July 2008, Scotiabanks Commodity Price Index plunged by a sharp 39% through December alongside a faltering global economy – ushered in by a U.S. and European banking crisis, deleveraging by financial institutions and much tighter global credit conditions. Most G7 economies are now contracting. Commodity Prices Retreat From Record High in July 2008
While inter-bank lending has improved – following government guarantees on inter-bank lending in Europe, government capital injections into financial institutions to shore up their balance sheets and massive central bank liquidity injections – tighter credit will contribute to sharply reducing global growth from 5% in 2006 and 2007 to about -0.5% in 2009. This will occur, even with relative strength in emerging markets such as China, where GDP growth should still advance by 5.8% in 2009 – though well below the estimated 9.0% of 2008 and 13.0% of 2007. The sudden and unusually sharp decline in commodity prices since the July peak reflects the exit of many hedge funds from long commodity futures positions and commodity index-linked investmentsforced by fund redemptions and tighter credit – as well as a shift to record short positions by funds and trading companies. On a more positive note, the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index rose by 1.3% in January 2009, as buying by Chinas State Reserve Bureau contributed to stronger base metal and grain prices and oil prices steadied. Hedge Funds Exit Oil & Metal Positions
China Industrial Production: December 2008 5.7% yr/yr G7 Industrial Production -7.8% (Nov) U.S. -10.0% (Jan) Japan -22.6% (Dec) Germany -12.0% (Dec) China -- Vital to Global Commodity Markets yr/yr % change China – Industrial Production* G7 Industrial Production Demand Growth in China (2007, % change) Crude Oil4.6Nickel 24.0 Copper16.0Aluminium38.8 Slab Zinc11.5Iron Ore10.3 *3 mth moving avg. China shifts policy in mid-September 2008 from preventing overheating to supporting fast and steady growth; monetary policy has been eased decisively, while a massive fiscal stimulus package (infrastructure spending totaling 4.16 tr RMB from 2008:Q4 through 2010 – equivalent to 6% of nominal GDP in each of 2009 and 2010) was announced on Nov. 9, 2008. This spending has already been expanded. Measures to bolster 10 key industries (including nonferrous metals) have been unveiled ahead of the National Peoples Congress on March 5, 2009.
yr/yr % change 200620072008e2009F2010F WORLD*5.15.03.3-0.52.5 CANADA220.127.116.11-1.61.6 UNITED STATES 2.82.01.1-2.61.7 CHINA11.613.09.05.88.5 INDIA9.69.06.85.36.5 SOUTH KOREA 5.0 2.5-3.51.0 GDP (% per annum) *Global GDP estimate based on purchasing power parity, as used by the IMF. + Negative growth in current dollars. Average 1988-1997: 3.4% p.a. prior to the economic take- off in China and India. Emerging Markets Should Provide Some Offset To G7 Contraction A seismic shift in global growth has occurred from the G7 to emerging markets this decade. Widening credit squeeze cuts growth prospects.
U.S. Housing Starts millions of units, quarterly, annualized U.S. housing starts at 466,000 units in January 2009 are the lowest in data back to 1959. Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods. Total Single-Family Units 1978 – Strong Baby-Boom Demand U.S. Housing Start Outlook (million units) 20061.81 20071.34 2008F0.90 2009F0.55 2010F0.80 Tighter U.S. lending standards, an end to private-label mortgage securitization, high existing home inventories (exacerbated by near- record foreclosures) and severe employment losses point to prolonged U.S. slowdown.
Federal Funds – Effective Rates per cent Federal Funds Target Rate is 0.25% in February 2009. Fed Funds expected to remain virtually flat through 2010:H1. The Fed Takes Action to Stem Fallout from Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown Real Federal Funds Rate (Adjusted for Inflation)* per cent * Inflation-adjusted with the U.S. Personal Consumption Deflator (PCE) and the core PCE. Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods.Average January 2009 = -1.41% Average = 2.31%
USD Libor Shows Significant Improvement in Late October Overnight 3-month % + Inter-bank lending thaws following government guarantees on inter-bank lending and capital injections into banks and other financial institutions in the U.K. and Western Europe in October. However, general credit conditions remain tight world- wide for corporate and consumer loans in early 2009. + Inter-bank lending thaws Credit Conditions Tighten Globally In September & October 2008 Data to February 25, 2009. Credit Squeeze
Oil Prices Tumble from Record High US$ per barrel Arab Oil Embargo Iranian Revolution Gulf War Iraq War New Record High: July 11, 2008: US$147.90 After a Weak 2009, Oil Prices Will Likely Rebound Medium- Term 1990-99 US$19.69/bbl 2006 US$66.22 2007 US$72.32 2008 US$99.62 2009F US$45–50 2010F US$65 2011 US$75+ * Source: Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. WTI on February 27, 2009: US$44.64. OPEC announces output cuts of 4.2 mb/d in Sept/08 – Jan/09 to shore up prices. A global capital spending slowdown on oil field development in 2009, due to tighter credit and the slide in oil prices, sets the stage for a strong rebound in oil prices in 2011-13. U.S. demand for gasoline shows signs of stabilizing (rising 1.7% yr/yr in latest 4 weeks); U.S. oil imports are also declining now, partly due to OPEC cutbacks.
Waning U.S. Industrial Activity yr/yr % change U.S. Employment Growth Industrial Production U.S. Motor Vehicle Assemblies U.S. Payrolls million units, quarterly Latest Data: Declines in Payrolls Jan. 2009-598,000 Decline in Past Year -3,422,000 yr/yr % change U.S. Economy Contracts U.S. motor vehicle assemblies (including General Motors, Mitsubishi, Nissan…) totalled 8.7 million units in 2008, and are expected to drop to 7.3 million in 2009, before edging up to 7.6 million in 2010. Assemblies averaged about 12 million from 1993-2007.
Scotiabank Metal and Mineral Price Index Retreats from Record Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods. Latest data: January 2009. Metal and Mineral Price Index in July 2008 reached a new record high – 123.8% above the June 1988 peak. Index: 1997=100 U.S. Equity Markets Remain Jittery Commodity prices recently trade down with weak equity markets. S&P 500 Index: 1941-43=10 An Indicator of Financial Market Distress & Economic Sentiment Feb 23/09 10
Copper Prices Still at Profitable Level US$ per pound Record High: US$4.08 on July 3, 2008 LME cash settlement prices. * Latest data: February 27, 2009. * Low During Credit Squeeze (Aug. 17, 2007) + Price Outlook 2007 US$3.23 2008 US$3.15 2009F US$1.40 (possibly as high as US$1.50) 2010F US$1.40 Re-weighting of Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Price Index and S&P GSCI boosts base metals (at least temporarily) in early January. Buying by Chinas State Reserve Bureau also boosts copper prices in January/February 2009.
Copper Prices Will Likely Outperform Other Base Metals LME copper prices at US$1.54 per pound on February 27, 2009 are at profitable levels -- yielding an 11% margin over average world break-even costs including depreciation, interest expense & royalties. Prices have edged up in early 2009, after falling as low as US$1.26 on December 24 (well below the 90th percentile of direct cash costs) – triggering substantial production cuts and mine expansion deferrals. Roughly 670,000 tonnes of production has recently been curtailed. Significant buying of copper by Chinas State Reserve Bureau (recently as much as 300,000 tonnes via intermediaries from Latin American and European copper suppliers) contributed to the rebound in prices in January & February. Should recent rumours be true -- that China wishes to build its overall copper reserve to 1 million tonnes -- the additional buying would go a long way towards offsetting the projected 2009 copper surplus. Nevertheless, prices could move lower again later in 2009, given prospects for a contraction in world copper consumption of about -4.6% in 2009, after last years marked deceleration in demand to only +0.3%. Global consumption should pick up again modestly in 2010 (+1.0%).
Chinas Copper Consumption Likely to Rise by 5% in 2009 and in 2010 Chinas copper consumption will decelerate from last years 8% growth (16% in 2007) to only 5%, given lower exports to the G7 and substantial inventory liquidation in parts of its manufacturing sector (e.g. air conditioners) linked to a domestic housing correction and industry rationalization. However, this inventory correction should come to an end by mid-year and Chinas massive infrastructure spending program (particularly on power transmission in urban areas – as well as aluminium-intensive cross country transmission) will provide some support for copper. Japans auto sector is dominated by export demand and, with declining car sales in the United States and Europe, Japans auto makers have been forced to cut output (-41% in January). Copper consumption is also quite weak in Western Europe (-9.8% expected in 2009). LME copper inventories have surged by 67% since early January (from 324,000 tonnes to 542,300 tonnes in late February), but remain low on the Shanghai Futures Exchange at only 28,332 tonnes. While global copper inventories may continue to rise through early 2010, the increase is likely to be less than for nickel and aluminium (in terms of days of global consumption). Copper prices should hold up better than many other base metals.
May 16, 2007 New Record US$24.59 Nickel Prices Retreat US$ per pound LME Nickel Prices Previous Record US$10.84 in March 1988 Stainless steel production slowdown in Asia and Europe pushes down prices in 2008. Mine & refinery closures (at Ravensthorpe in Australia and Loma de Niquel in Venezuela) and delays in ramping up new projects (possibly at Goro and Onça-Puma) together with stronger consumption point to a modest rebound in prices by 2010. LME Nickel Prices (US$ per pound) 200716.88 20089.57 2009F4.20 2010F4.80 Latest data: February 2009.
U.S. Stainless Steel Prices US$ per tonne U.S. Midwest, spot prices Including alloy surcharges. Data to February 2009. Stainless Steel Prices - CR304* Expected global capital spending slowdown in 2009 will pressure stainless steel prices. However, capital spending should reaccelerate early in the next decade. U.S. nickel surcharges on stainless steel prices have dropped from US$1.48 per pound in January 2008 to US$0.54 in January 2009.
Zinc Prices Ease US$ per pound LME official cash settlement prices. Data to February 2009. LME Zinc Prices (US$ per pound) 20071.47 20080.85 2009F0.50 2010F0.60 Zinc producers announce pro-active output cuts to shore up market conditions Zinc prices should start to recover in 2010, though prices may remain at a low ebb (below average world break-even costs including depreciation).
Collapse in Global Auto Production & Weak Residential Construction Takes Toll on Zinc The global supply/demand balance for zinc moved into a surplus in 2008, with traders continuing to short the market through most of the year – initially in anticipation of substantial new mine capability scheduled to come on stream and later with growing realization that much of the G7 had entered recession. Zinc prices fell to a low of US$0.47 per pound on December 12 – close to average world cash costs – amid a collapse in demand in the global auto and construction sectors. Prices peaked for the business cycle around US$2.09 in December 2006. However, zinc prices rallied back in late December and averaged US$0.54 in January. The market responded favourably to substantial mine and smelter production cutbacks as well as the annual re-jigging of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index boosting the weighting of zinc and news that Chinas State Reserves Bureau would buy about 200,000 tonnes of refined zinc from Chinese smelters for its strategic stockpile (intended to bolster hard-pressed domestic smelters as well as take advantage of bargain prices). Interestingly, Yunnan province may also buy reserves to shore up its beleaguered zinc smelting industry.
Zinc Smelters Take Unusual Steps To Bolster Market Conditions Twenty zinc smelters (including Zhuzhou in China -20%, Trail -20% to mid-2009, Kidd Creek -30% to mid-2009) have now announced deep production cuts – a very unusual step. Smelters often wait until mine concentrate supplies dwindle before cutting output. Weak demand for the sulphuric acid produced by some smelters and insufficient storage capability for it could also cut smelter output in coming months, as will a tightening supply of concentrates from mines. While lower smelter output has bolstered market conditions, it would not be surprising to see zinc prices retest previous lows in the first half of 2009. In fact, zinc has fallen back to US$0.49 in late February. Zinc prices should start to rebound on a sustained basis by the second half of 2010.
Gold – A Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty US$ per ounce Gold Prices London PM Fix Jan. 21, 1980 peak US$850 New Record: March 17, 2008 US$1,032.70 * London PM Fix on Feb 26, 2009: US$945. Investor Interest in ETFs and retail interest in bars and coins remains strong. Price Outlook 2007 US$697 2008 US$872 2009F US$975 2010F US$900-950
Gold Should Shine as Safe-Haven in 2009 Gold prices (London PM Fix) – traditionally considered a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty – have held up better than base metal prices. However, a stronger trade-weighted U.S. dollar (especially against the euro) from mid-July 2008 through November 20th – linked to some improvement in the U.S. merchandise trade performance last summer, but more importantly to a counter-intuitive flight to the safe-haven of U.S. Treasury securities during the height of the banking credit crisis last Fall, prevented gold from climbing back to its previous March 2008 record high of US$1,032.70 and – in fact – pushed prices down.
Gold Should Shine as Safe-Haven in 2009 A largely deflationary economic environment, falling oil prices and the forced exit of many hedge funds from commodity market positions also contributed to a decline in gold prices to a low of US$712.50 on October 24. Gold prices have subsequently rallied back, averaging US$859 in January 2009 and surging as high as US$1,006 in intraday trading on the spot market on February 20. Prices were pushed up by another global selloff in equity markets, triggered by concern over the stability of the U.S. banking industry. While day-to-day prices remain volatile and retreated to US$942 (spot) on February 27, the big picture outlook for gold remains bullish in 2009. Asian and Middle East central banks and sovereign wealth funds could be less supportive of U.S. debt markets in the next 12-24 months, in view of large debt issuance to fund massive U.S. federal government budgetary deficits (US$1.75 trillion in FY2009 and probably over US$1.2 trillion in FY2010). Gold should come into its own as a true safe haven in 2009.
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted vs. Euro March 1973=100 monthly averages *Data to February 26, 2009. Canadian dollar reached parity with the U.S. dollar on Sept. 20th, 2007. Canadian Dollar: US$0.802 as of February 26, 2009. Canadian Dollar US cents monthly averages Commodity prices slip US cents monthly averages euro U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted
Spot Uranium Prices Will Rally in Medium Term US$ per pound Russian HEU Agreement Cancelled Options US$43.40 Peak Three Mile Island Arab Oil Embargo Low US$7.10 in Dec. 2000 Nuclear Disarmament Feb 23, 2009 Spot US$45.00 LT Contract US$70.00 Source: Scotiabank Commodity Price Index.
The forced liquidation of commodity market investments by funds and individual investors also affected the uranium market last October, when spot prices declined to a low of US$44 per pound (an oversold position). Prices rallied back to US$55 in late November -- as Asian utilities, commodity brokers and producers took advantage of bargain prices – though bids have dropped back to the US$45 level as of late February. Spot prices are expected to strengthen medium-term (to around US$70 from 2011-14). Term-contract prices remain lucrative. Uncovered U3O8 requirements by North American utilities will be low in 2009, given the re-stocking and term contracting of recent years. However, three developments point to firmer prices in the medium-term: 1) India will return as an importer of uranium concentrates in 2009 after more than a 30-year absence, given approval by the World Nuclear Suppliers Group, and has now signed bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements with the United States, France and Russia (from whom it may import concentrates and equipment). Canada requires a similar agreement. India has been operating its nuclear reactors at 50% of capability, given inadequate domestic uranium supplies, and has huge nuclear power expansion plans. 2) Delays in commissioning the Cigar Lake project and in Olympic Dam expansion will dramatically tighten world supplies around 2011-13; and 3) Higher capital and operating costs will lift the medium-term floor on prices. Spot Uranium Prices Will Rally in Medium-Term
US$ per tonne, spot FOB Newcastle, Australia Steam Coal Prices Chinas Electricity Shortage Boosts Steam Coal Prices Last Summer China imposes export tax of 10% on steam coal and raises export tax on coking coal from 5% to 10% on August 20, 2008 to conserve supplies for domestic power generation. Contract price: Australia/Japan. FY2008 US$125:FY2009 US$75 forecast. US$ per tonne FOB port Western Canadian Coking Coal Prices Poised to Drop From Record Levels Western Canada to Japan Premium-Grade Hard Coking Coal Contract Price Prices leapt to record US$300 in April 2008 from US$93. *Forecast JFY 2009: US$125-150. Source: Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. *
Investment Banking – Global Mining Dedicated team of 14 professionals focused exclusively on mining In-house technical expertise with a senior mining engineer and a geologist Supported by Scotia Capitals 18-person M&A advisory group Corporate Banking – Global Mining Among top 3 lenders to the North American mining sector (#1 in Canada) International presence with coverage from Toronto of Canada, the United States, Mexico, South America and Europe. Major International Banking Presence In Mexico via Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A. de C.V., in Chile via Scotiabank Sudamericano and in Peru via Scotiabank Perú – the third largest bank in Peru. Precious Metals Trading ScotiaMocatta ranks second in global precious metals trading and first in physical trading and is a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Scotia Capital offers tailor-made solutions for Base Metal risk management strategies in London and Toronto. Scotia Capitals Global Mining Group
Recent Equity Leads C$22,001,200 TSX IPO - Common Shares Sole Bookrunner February 2008 C$34,256,035 Units Sole Bookrunner January 2008 Strong Commitment to the Sector Recent Advisory Transactions C$65,520,000 Common Shares Sole Bookrunner November 2007 C$50,025,000 Common Shares Sole Bookrunner November 2007 Financial Advisor May 2008 has acquired 100% of the Life of Mine Silver Production from the Sabinas Mine of for US$350,000,000 Scotia Capital Mining Investment Banking Financial Advisor July 2008 has consolidated its interest in the Corani Silver Project by acquiring the remaining 30% interest from for US$75,000,000 Financial Advisor Pending Evaluating an unsolicited tender offer and identifying potential alternatives to enhance shareholder value Financial Advisor Pending Is merging with to create a company with a combined market capitalization of C$550,000,000 Financial Advisor October 2008 has acquired for US$1,200,000,000 US$163,000,000 Common Shares Co-Bookrunner September 2008
This Report is prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. While the information is from sources believed reliable, neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which The Bank of Nova Scotia or Scotia Capital Inc. or any of their employees incur responsibility.