1. A P R I L 1 9, 2 0 0 5 O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Jim Glassman jglassman@jpmorgan.com 212-834-5102 Energy and the Economy

2. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Whats up with oil? … 2

3. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a West Texas Intermediate (Dollars Per Barrel) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … double OPECs target 3 Updated Through April 2005

4. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Global demand is strong … 4

5. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Global Petroleum Supply and Demand (Millions of Barrels Annualized) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … but so is supply … 5 Updated Through April 2005

6. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a US Private Oil Inventories (Millions of Barrels) Source: American Petroleum Institute. … and inventories are normal 6 Updated Through April 2005

7. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a A weak dollar drains a petrodollars purchasing power … 7

8. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Petroleum Output (Millions of Barrels Annualized) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … but OPEC isnt dragging its feet 8

9. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a … and not everythings made in Europe 9

10. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Its a stealth OPEC move to raise the target price … 10

11. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a West Texas Intermediate (Dollars Per Barrel) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … I think they know better 11

12. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a As Oil Demand Surges, Saudis Offer to Boost Output Rare Move Aims to Head Off Cuts, Backlash From Buyers; Meeting With Bush Looms By BHUSHAN BAHREE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL April 7, 2005; Page A1 Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is telling petroleum buyers it will supply them with all the oil they want to help them build up inventories ahead of an expected sharp rise in energy demand later this year. … and why are the Saudis saying this? 12

13. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a A lower dollar reduces the price to non-dollar consumers … 13

14. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Petroleum Demand (Barrels) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … so why arent they buying? 14

15. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a WTI (Dollars Per Barrel) Dollar Index (March 1973 = 100) Sources: Federal Reserve Board and Bloomberg LLP. In fact, the dollar/oil correlation isnt obvious 15

16. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a We have a shortage of refining capacity … 16

17. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Ratio of the Pump Price of Gasoline to the Crude Equivalent Sources: American Petroleum Institute and Bloomberg LLP. … then why is the retail-crude markup so low? 17

18. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Its the sweet-&-sour spread … 18

19. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Price Differential Between WTI and Dubai Crude (Dollars Per Barrel) Source: Bloomberg LLP. … I dont see it 19

20. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a So whats going on? … 20

21. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a … it takes time to find equilibrium A market that has inelastic demand has fewer price anchors in the near term … i.e., prices can get out of line for a spell Higher levels of capacity utilization in oil production imply less ability to absorb potential disruptions than previously 21

22. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a The oil tax... 22

23. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Wall Streets view of petroleum as a tax … 23

24. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Oil is a tax … in a narrow sense … Rising oil prices represent a leakage from the spending stream of countries that are net petroleum importers. Consumers bear a disproportionate burden of the adjustment to higher energy prices. Rules of thumb, two ways to figure it: Economic models say a $10/barrel oil price raises GDP prices by 0.5 percentage point and lowers GDP by 0.5%. Back-of-the-envelop calculation … the US consumes 7 billion barrels of oil annually and imports 4.5 billion barrels. So, a $10/bbl jump in oil prices raises the nations aggregate energy bill by $70 billion annually and its oil import bill by $45 billion (the rise in net imports lowers real GDP by 0.5 percent, everything else the same) So, last years surge in oil prices from $25/bbl to near $50 may have slowed US and global growth by more than 2 percentage points in Q2 and Q3 and by 1¼ percentage points in the year as a whole. 24

25. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a US Imports and Exports to OPEC ($ Billions) WTI ($/Barrel) Sources: US Department of Commerce and Haver Analytics. … for oil consuming countries and sectors 25

26. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Less true for natural gas Natural gas production is all in the family, so to speak, a domestic resource The tax on consumers represents a revenue boost to producers, who are largely domestic 26

27. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a But … 27

28. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Global Oil Supply Versus Demand Source: Econ 101. … if demand drives oil, oil hurts demand? 28 Initial Demand Final Demand Petroleum Supply Price Quantity

29. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Round 1 … tax on oils users Consumer spending is dampened, profits depressed, and GDP of net oil consuming countries retarded by the oil tax Round 2 … recycled petrodollars boost asset prices Rising oil prices effectively raises savingtaxing consumers and giving producers revenuesand the flow into financial assets dampens the consumer hit A $10/barrel jump in oil boosts the flow of oil revenue into financial markets by $300 billionglobal oil demand runs about 30 billion barrels annually Oil revenues initially are invested in financial assets Round 3 … the oil tax recycled Producers are consumers as well and they eventually spend their oil revenueson oil exploration and development projects, on government social outlays, for typical consumer goodsrecycling the oil tax back to industrial countries … oil revenues dont vanish into outer space … 29

30. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a … oil producers are spenders too Dubai to offer snow skiing in 120-degree heat Thursday, April 07, 2005 By Jim Krane The Associated Press DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- When this city's furnace-like summer gets too hot to bear, folks will cool off at a local resort with tumbling snowflakes, skiing and snowboarding on five trails, and, for those who need a break from the cold, mugs of hot chocolate by the fireplace. The resort, a faux mountainside playground dubbed Ski Dubai, is currently a cacophony of blazing jackhammers, forests of steel scaffolding and an emerging gray mountain of concrete slabs. Come September, a thick insulated roof with a sky-blue ceiling will seal in the site, with its 200-foot vertical drop and trails as long as 1,300 feet. Crank up the 23 massive air conditioners and turn on the snowmaking jets and organizers say the concrete mountain will be covered in 28 inches of powdery snow. For those bundling up in parkas and strapping on their boots and gloves, the desert outside will melt away. "There will be no windows looking to the outside," said Phil Taylor, Ski Dubai's chief executive, bounding up the concrete slopes and catwalks during a brisk tour of the construction. "The idea is to create a beautiful day in the mountains." 30 Kamran Jebreili, Associated Press A billboard advertises an indoor ski attraction under construction in the background at the Mega Mall on Sheikh Zayed High-way in Dubai. The Ski Dubai Web site features animations of skiing that is scheduled to be reality by this fall.Ski Dubai

31. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Economic progress report … 31

32. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a US Real GDP (Annualized Percentage Change) Source: US Department of Commerce. Growth is good … despite oil 32 Bars are change from previous quarter Line is change from four quarters earlier Diamonds are Q4-Versus-Q4 change

33. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Real GDP in Selected Regions (% Change from Four Quarters Earlier) Source: JPMorgan Chase. More challenging abroad 33 Asia Ex. Japan US EU-11 Japan

34. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a After-Tax Operating Profits (Ratio to GDP) Sources: US Department of Commerce and Standard and Poors. Profits havent been better 34 GDP Profits, After-Tax Profits from Current Production S&P 500 After-Tax Operating Earnings

35. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Core Consumer Inflation (Percentage Change from 12 Months Earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce and US Department of Labor. Inflation is … well … price stability … 35 The Feds Forecast (Target) Core PCE Chain Price Index Core CPI Updated Through March 2005

36. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Core Consumer Inflation (Percentage Change from 12 Months Earlier) Sources: Federal Reserve Board, US Department of Commerce, and US Department of Labor. … you need a microscope to find something 36 Updated Through March 2005 The Federal Reserves Forecast (Target) for the Core PCE Chain Price Index

37. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Were not yet at full employment … 37

38. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Unemployment (Percent of the Labor Force) Sources: US Department of Commerce and US Department of Labor. Unemployment is deceptively low 38 If the Participation Rate Had Held Steady Official Unemployment Rate Updated Through March 2005

39. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a First of all, full employment may be 4% In my judgment, while we may not know where the unemployment rate which is consistent with stable prices [is] … it is clearly from what we can judge, well under 6 percent, and I would not rule out the possibility that it is down to the 4 percent level. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Remarks in Semi-Annual Testimony on the State of the Economy to the House Financial Services Committee, US House of Representatives, February 11, 2004 39

40. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Nonfarm Payrolls (Millions) Source: US Department of Labor. Second, some unemployment is hidden 40 Nonfarm Payrolls Updated Through March 2005

41. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Working Age Population and Employed (Millions) Source: US Department of Labor. Where is everyone? 41 Working Age Population (Right) Nonfarm Payrolls (Left) Updated Through March 2005

42. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a People Not in the Job Market Because They Are in School (Thousands) Source: Current Population Survey, March Annual Demographic Survey. Some gave up and went back to school 42 Updated Through March 2005 2003

43. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Unemployment (Percent) Participation Rate (Percent) Sources: US Department of Commerce and US Department of Labor. That artificially depresses unemployment 43 Participation Rate of 20 – 24 Year Olds (Right) Unemployment Rate (Left) Updated Through March 2005

44. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Unemployment (Percent of the Labor Force) Sources: US Department of Commerce and US Department of Labor. Considerable slack measured or not 44 If the Participation Rate Had Held Steady Official Unemployment Rate Updated Through March 2005

45. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a The future looks carbon-hungry … 45

46. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Energy & the economy … like horse & carriage GDP and Electricity Consumption (% Change from the Previous Year) 46

47. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a The US economys bright future … 47

48. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Flexibility keeps the economy on a higher plane US Real GDP (Percentage Change from Four Quarters Earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Ray Fair, Yale University, and National Bureau of Economic Research. 48 Updated March 2005

49. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Core Consumer Inflation (Percentage Change from 12 Months Earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce, and US Department of Labor. Price stability keeps interest rates lower … 49 The Feds Forecast (Target) Core PCE Chain Price Index Core CPI Updated Through March 2005

50. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Consumer Price Indexes (Percentage Change from 12 Months Earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce, and US Department of Labor. … the same goes for others 50 United States Updated Through March 2005 Aggregate of All Industrial Countries

51. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Productivity of Nonfarm Businesses (Annualized Percentage Change) Source: US Department of Commerce. Productivity … rocket fuel 51 Five-Year Moving Average % Change from Four Quarters Earlier

52. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Real GDP (Percentage Change from Four Quarters Earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Ray Fair, National Bureau of Economic Research. Bottom line … dont count on a slower future 52

53. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a East Asia joins the team … 53

54. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Real GDP in Selected Regions (Chained Dollars) Source: JPMorgan Chase. … and that means demand for resources 54

55. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Technology and economics can help … 55

56. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Ratio of Petroleum Consumed to Nominal GDP Sources: US Department of Commerce and Haver Analytics. Energys role is shrinking … 56

57. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a 57 … partly because GDP is getting lighter Services Share of US GDP

58. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a 58 Efficiency of electricity usage Ratio of Electricity Demand (Millions of Megawatthours) to Real GDP

59. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a 59 How much more from deregulation? Ratio of CPI Electricity to Total CPI (August 2004 = 1.0)

60. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a 60 Carbon dependency makes it our issue Fuel Used to Generate Electricity (Percent of Total)

61. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Lessons from the Club of Rome … 61

62. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Failed doomsday predictions … Proven oil reserves of 550 billion barrels in 1970 would be exhausted by 1990 Natural gas supplies would be gone by 2010 Food supplies would need to triple by the turn of the century to feed 6 billion population Global supplies of silver, tin, uranium, aluminum, copper, and lead would be exhausted Oil prices would reach $100/barrel 62

63. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a … forgot about economics On the supply sideOn the demand side Years of Oil Supply At Chinas consumption rate26 At US consumption rate51 At Europes consumption rate61 At Japans consumption rate85 63

64. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Oils price tells me … … Theres still too much oil for alternatives to make economic sense 64

65. Template O I L & G A S C O N F E R E N C E, I n d e p e n d e n t P e t r o l e u m A s s o c I a t I o n o f A m e r I c a Copyright 2005 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan is the marketing name for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. is a member of NYSE and SIPC. JPMorgan Chase Bank is a member of FDIC. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc., is a member of the NFA. J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL), J.P. Morgan Europe Limited and J.P. Morgan plc are authorized by the FSA. J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited is a member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Private Limited is regulated by the MAS and the Financial Services Agency in Japan. J.P.Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011) is a licensed securities dealer. Additional information is available upon request. Information herein is believed to be reliable but JPMorgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments and strategies discussed here may not be suitable for all investors; if you have any doubts you should consult your investment advisor. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. JPMorgan and/or its affiliates and employees may hold a position, may undertake or have already undertaken an own account transaction or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or any related financial instruments, or act as underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer. Clients should contact analysts at and execute transactions through a JPMorgan entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. This report should not be distributed to others or replicated in any form without prior consent of JPMorgan. This report has been issued, in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (all such persons being referred to as relevant persons). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other European Economic Area countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. JPMorgan uses the following recommendation system: Overweight. Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this bond to outperform the average total return of the bonds in the analysts (or analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral. Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this bond to perform in line with the average total return of the bonds in the analysts (or analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight. Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this bond to underperform the average total return of the bonds in the analysts (or analysts teams) coverage universe. JPMorgan uses the following rating system: Improving (I) The issuers long-term credit rating likely improves over the next six to twelve months. Stable (S) The issuers long-term credit rating likely remains the same over the next six to twelve months. Deteriorating (D) The issuers long-term credit rating likely falls over the next six to twelve months. Deteriorating+ (D+) The issuers long-term credit rating likely falls to junk over the next six to twelve months. Defaulting (F) There is some likelihood that the issuer defaults over the next six to twelve months. This report should not be distributed to others or replicated without prior consent of JPMorgan. 65 Analyst Certification The analyst(s) denoted by an "AC" certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed in this research accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst(s) in this research.