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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartners official approval. Such approvals may be requested via What do Gartners 2005 Predictions Mean for Libraries Stephen Abram VP, Innovation Sirsi Corporation March 17, 2004
Gartner Group Gartner Predicts research initiative in 2005 spanned more than two dozen technology and vertical industry focus areas. All told, more than 140 analysts proposed and collaborated on approximately 150 predictions that will affect IT users, vendors and most industries in 2005 and beyond. Space limitations prevent highlighting all focus areas let alone all the predictions today. I will pull out selected predictions that demand your attention and action.
View technologies and innovations as related to future of library services. Connecting, Collaboration, Community News ServiceMarch 29, 2004 U.S. President George W. Bush called for universal and affordable access to broadband Internet service by 2007, saying that the technology would speed the flow of information and spark innovation.
Next Massive Wave of Innovation and Demand for IT Will Start in 2006/7 Secure Broadband Wireless Low-Power- Consumption Mobile/Display Devices Real-Time Infra- structure Transition to Service-oriented architecture 2006/7
Emerging Trends & Technologies
MEMS RFID A bridge for the physical and electronic worlds, multipurpose technology Accelerometers, sensors, micro actuators Smart Pills, Nano, Quantum, Optical, Molecular Tagging physical objects with electronic information Supply chain automation Product information discovery Hardware Innovations in the Next Decade Trusted Computing Physically and logically separate processing space for trusted applications Ubiquitous billing infrastructure µ-payments Easy-to-use DRM, new business models Key Issue: Can it be implemented right?
A mix of technologies, including Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach Sensor Networks, Smart Dust Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play Personal Area Networks Mesh Networks Innovation in personal device format and user interaction Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center PAN: for user interaction Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade Mobile Commerce Devices + Reliable Networks + Business Models + Content Context- and Location-Based Services Hybrid offerings blending traditional and mobile commerce
Human Computer Computer Human Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position Gait Analysis, Infrared Emotion/Lie Detection OLED/OLEP, E-Ink Head-Mounted Displays Speech Synthesis Avatars, Synthetic Characters Logic Natural Language Search Taxonomies/Browsing Personalization Machine Translation Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade
Trends Hardware revolution continues to drive the data explosion Analysis and action gaps widen – skills shortage Data mining remains niche; most pockets of opportunities are still within business intelligence Data mining shifts to intermediaries (Wal-Mart, eBay) Embedded Data Mining Advanced Functionality Visualization, neural nets, genetic algorithms, machine learning Text and information extraction Audio and video mining Exploiting networks and communities (Google, Amazon) Data Analytics in the Next Decade
System Development and Management in the Next Decade XML Int. Web Services Aspect-Oriented Programming XQuery Development Business Rules Engines Service-Oriented Software Long fuse Extreme Programming Heavy Ontologies Identity Management Service-oriented Business Applications Integration Composite Applications More Modularity Less Monolithic More Agility More Complexity Agent-Based Integration BAM Portals Real-time Infrastructure Management and Sourcing ASPs Virtual Enterprise Outsourcing Grid Computing Application Platform Suites Bottom Line: Standards matter! Modularity implies more flexibility but also more complexity. Business Process Fusion Complex Event Processing
Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, 70% of the population in developed nations will spend 10 times longer per day interacting with people in the electronic world than in the physical one (0.6 probability). Connected Society
Wireless Wearables WiFi Smart Phones Location-Based Services Ultrawideband Ad Hoc Communities Identity and Profiles Collaboration: I, borg Privacy, Preference and Discrimination Augmented Reality Healthcare as a Utility
Connected Objects and Places On-chip wireless/RFID On-chip sensors/MEMS Low-power displays Ad hoc networking/ mesh networks Low-power CPUs Smart dust Disposable computers Personalized retail Smart spaces Smarter people What should objects know? Location, owner, safety... Products as services
Connected Enterprises Real-time Infrastructure Compliance and Data Visibility Voice/Data Convergence Offshore Outsourcing Semantic Standards Service-Oriented Everything Enterprise as Ecosystem Exploiting Network Effects: Innocentive Communications-Enabled Business Processes Measuring Knowledge Work Business Process Fusion Shifting Job Roles
Bluetooth MEMSReal-time DWGrid LinuxWLANsSmartphonesCRM PortalsiSCSI SANsIP TelephonyBAM Instant Messaging SCMOpteronNanocomputing LEPUWB Software as Services ZibgeeReal-Time InfrastructureMobile applications Natural Language SearchMicro fuel cellsTablet PCs MMSSpeech recognition802.11gTrusted Platforms Utility computingOLEDMesh networksCamera Phones e-ink IT self-serviceNetwork Security Convergence Smart dust Semantic WebRFID Tags4G wireless Taxonomies Location aware servicesOntologies Unified communicationsMetadata management Top 10 Technologies To Watch Maturing within 36 months Network security convergence IP telephony Software as services Instant messaging Established, wider usability Utility computing WLANs Partial value next three years RFID tags Grid Taxonomies Real-Time Infrastructure
A real-time enterprise (RTE): Monitors, captures and analyzes root cause and overt events that are critical to the success of the enterprise Does it the moment those events occur Exploits that real-time information to progressively remove delays in managing and executing critical detection, reporting, decision- making and response business processes Real-Time Enterprise
Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2005, 60 percent of interpersonal data messaging done by consumer and enterprise users via mobile and fixed devices will be instant (real-time) by exploiting location and other presence indicators (0.7 probability).
Wireless Encryption Protocol is broken, but better than nothing Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) protocol brings WLAN to business-level security, but needs to move to at next refresh cycle of the protocol Still need to worry about end-point security Dont forget about public hot spots Wider Deployment of WLAN for Enterprises
Real-Time (JIT) Integration Composite Applications Develop Deploy Service- Oriented Architecture (SOA) Service-Oriented Development of Applications (SODA) Interface Separation Wrapping (Reflection) Description Dynamism Contracts Messages Repository Servers Interoperability Is Cheaper Than Integration OOP Software Treated as Services
Web Services Readiness Scope of Deployment Scope of Standards Cross- industry Extended enterprise Cross- enterprise Individual department International/ U.S. standards bodies Industry consortia (public) Stage 3: 2007 onward Unlimited Prospects, Suppliers, Influencers Full Internet Proprietary WS for internal integration Open-sourced WS-UDDI Directories Shared WS for trusted supply chains; narrow partner groupings CIO office One depart- ment. Stage 2: 2005 Limited External- Trading Partners Stage 1: 2003 Internal Development Scope of Web Services (WS)
Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2012, radio frequency identification (RFID) and similar wireless chips will evolve from a supply-chain technology into an enabler of value-added consumer applications, such as item location and status reporting (0.6 probability).
IP Telephony Provides the Killer Environment IP telephony crosses organizational units and technologies Collaboration Services Bridge Services Scheduling Tools Mobility Consistent Security User Authentication Extending Telephone Features Presence Detection Device Inter- operability PC/Telephone/Video connectivity Remote Site Management Centralized Administration Centralized Management CRM Presence Detection Collaboration Call Center Tools Agent Availability Caller Information Presence Detection
PDAs and Mobile Technology
Coverage Area <150 feet < 20 computers Expect 2 Mbps to 8 Mbps through YE04 Public Hot Spots (hotels, airports, retail centers) In the Home DSL Cable WLL Office Area Cafeteria Enterprise Campus Meeting Area How Will Wireless LANs and 3G Interoperate?
Focused on application/end-user segment alignment Packet data (CDMA 1x, GPRS, W-CDMA) Full-color screen across product portfolio Increased memory and storage (separate/integrated application processors) Application-layer interface (BREW, Java) Messaging interface (SMS, MMS, EMS?) Product portfolio must haves –Bluetooth –Camera –MIDI sounds and ringers –WAP 2.0 Handsets in 2004
PalmOS + First to market - Back-end systems Symbian + Mainstream mfg. - Enterprise software Windows CE + Enterprise software - Mainstream mfg. The Smartphone Emerges
Device Diversity LessMore OS Competition Intensifies
Connected Society Strategic Imperative: For higher-education institutions to remain competitive, academic decision makers must build the case for real-time integration based on the learners needs and expectations
Authentication Single Sign-On Internal and External Content Search and Discovery Content Management License Management Rights Management Linking Personal Administrative Management (ERP) Communication and Collaboration Personal Academic Management (CMS) 24x7 Help Security/Privacy The Case for Integration: The Learner Benefits
Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2005, at least 60 percent of new higher-education IT spending will go toward acquiring and supporting academic technologies, including e- learning, content management and library management systems (0.7 probability).
Library MS Financials HR/Payroll SIS Batch Real Time Batch and Real-Time Integration of CMS With Major Systems Percentage of Respondents
Connected Society Tactical Guideline: Higher-education institutional decisions concerning library management systems, campus portals and CMS should not be made in isolation from each other.
Horizon Unicorn Aleph Voyager Millennium Number of ARL Member Libraries Library Management Systems as Learning Content Management Source: ARL 2003
Percentage of respondents rating motivation as very important or extremely important. Institutional Motivation for E-Learning Reduce Staff Head Count Government Mandate Construction Cost Savings Recruiting Competition Collaboration Generate Revenues Marketing Opportunities Pedagogical Advantage Student Demand Enhanced Customer Service
Percentage of respondents rating technology as very important or extremely important. Importance of Technologies for E-Learning Infrastructure in Next Three Years: Top 10 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% Learner Portfolios Wireless Networking Digital Rights Mgmt. Video Over IP Video Streaming Enterprise Portal Next-Gen. CMS Learning Content Mgmt. Security Technologies Broadband Networking
Technical Infrastructure (The TV) Quality Content (The TV Show) Interesting, Fun, Interactive, Motivating Necessary Software Optimized Network Good content and infrastructure are both needed to be successful with e-learning. The Two Big E-Learning Challenges
E-Learning Deployments Increase Departmental LMS Enterprise LMS Off-the-Shelf Increased Focus on Custom Content Old FocusNew Focus 7.6% 28% IT Spending Increase in 2004 E-Learning Software Spending Increase in 2004 Best-of-Breed Applications E-Learning Suites
Proxy Caching VPN Firewall WAP VoIP Gateway Desktops Client Devices Databases Consolidation on zSeries ERP SCM CRM HR Business Application Server Internet Access Line of Business Enterprise Data Data/Content Server/ Warehouse Network Edge Servers Compute Clusters Infrastructure Server/Blade Directory Security Load balance File/print Web NAS Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize Status: Critical Building Blocks of IT Infrastructure Proven
Where Linux is Used: Now and in 12 Months Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=105) Table 24 No Now+12 months
Open Source Software Usage: Infrastructure Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98) Table 25 No Now+24 months +53%
Open Source Software Usage: Applications & Collaboration Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98) Table 25 No Now+24 months +100%
Library Open Source Interest is Growing Small library LMS (GreenStone, OpenBiblio, Linux School Library) Digital Repository Management System (The Fedora Project) Library Database development and search applications Library Web front ends and portals (ASU library) Digital collections and Audio collections Professional Library Associations (LITA, ALA, ARL, BLA) Major LMS vendors are showing interested in OSS (VTLS Inc. & Fedora Project) OSS4Lib - open source projects for libraries
n Tacit, intellectual capital is held by the individual knowledge worker n Instantaneous access to knowledge enhances the productivity of the individual knowledge worker n Collaborative connections and networks build value for the enterprise Personal Knowledge Network Characteristics The Future of KM Is Personal
OS and DBMS Application Server Portal Integration Suite Line-of-Business Applications Old View New View A New Infrastructure Stack Emerges
Content Management Hype Cycle Acronym Key CMcontent management COLDcomputer output to laserdisc DOMdistributed output management Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Maturity Visibility Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years Key: Time to Plateau As of June 2003 Document Management Document Imaging WCM Streaming Media Digital Asset Management Content Aggregation and Syndication XML Database Management Systems Consumer Digital Rights Management Enterprise Digital Rights Management Globalization, Localization Content Integration Web Services for CM Records Management Content-Process Fusion WCM Outsourcing Taxonomies COLD, IDARS, DOM E-Forms Information Extraction JSR 170 WSRP and JSR 168 XML-Based Multichannel Output and Interaction Smart Enterprise Suites Virtual Content Repositories Information Retrieval/Search Personal Web Publishing IDARSintegrated document archive and retrieval system JSRJava Specification Request WCMWeb content management WSRPWeb Services for Remote Portals
Content/process fusion is the evolving combination of content and process technologies based on XML. There are three key areas where this is beginning to be realized: 1. Collaboration and Transformation – Engaging people and forms as part of a process 2. Vertical Process Automation – C/PF targeted at reusable industry applications 3. Content Integration – Built on XML and Web services Content/Process Fusion Delivers
Some 2005 Predictions
Q&A Continue Discussion
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartners official approval. Such approvals may be requested via Sirsi: Building For The Future Stephen Abram VP, Innovation Sirsi Corporation March 17, 2004