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Estimating Smarter...Not Harder Using Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction Analysis Jeff Hisem Administrator Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of Estimating Transportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010

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Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q.What is Unique about Ohios State Flag? A.Its the Only State Flag Thats Not Rectangular

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Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q. Ohio is Home to How Many U.S. Presidents? A.Seven Q.Name Them A.Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William H. Taft, and Warren G. Harding

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Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia Q.Which Ohio College is One of Only Eight in The Country to Sport a Female Mascot? A.The University of Akrons Zippy the Kangaroo (Zippy has a Pouch)

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Survey How many people in this room collect and use bid histories? How many people in this room collect and use construction data for cost-based estimating? Why not?

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Engineers Estimate Overview Engineers Estimate Bid Analysis Post- Construction Analysis

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Two Measures of a Good Estimate Good Estimating PrecisionAccuracy

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How Close to a Fair and Reasonable Value Estimating Accuracy

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Estimating in a Consistent Manner Estimating Precision

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Accuracy & Precision Estimating in a Fair & Reasonable Manner Consistently

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Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With Generic Data … (Average Accuracy & Reasonable Precision) Cost-Based Estimating

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Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With DOT Specific Construction Data… (Good Accuracy, Good Precision)

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Improving Cost-Based Estimating Collect Detailed Construction Records – Production Rates – Crew Counts – Equipment Counts Create a Construction Database Much Like a Bid History Database to Easily Retrieve This Information

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Improving Cost-Based Estimating DOT Specific Construction Data – Fair & Reasonable Cost-Based Estimating – Makes Cost-Based Estimating Possible For More Items – Enhance Items That Already Use Cost-Based Estimating – Increases DOT Certainty

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ODOTs Challenges ODOTs Current Software (CMS) Does Not Make Construction Data Readily Available – Read Through Inspectors Daily Reports – Quality of Reports Varies from Inspector to Inspector CMS Software is Being Retired Switching to SiteManager

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Cost-Based Estimating Example Using Authoritative Reference as Basis Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing – Minor Urban Arterial – 13,797 Vehicles / Day Production Rate – 352 CY / 8 Hour Day Crew – 1 Foreman – 7 Laborers – 3 Equipment Operators Equipment – 1 Paver – 1 Steel Roller – 1 Pneumatic Roller Total Estimated Cost = $143 / CY

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Cost-Based Estimating Example Using State Developed Estimating Data Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing – Minor Urban Arterial – 13,797 Vehicles / Day Production Rate – 200 CY / 8 Hour Day Crew – 1 Foreman – 4 Laborers – 3 Equipment Operators Equipment – 1 Paver – 1 Steel Roller – 1 Pneumatic Roller Total Estimated Cost = $149 / CY

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Cost-Based Estimating Example Using DOT Construction Data as Basis Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing – Minor Urban Arterial – 13,797 Vehicles / Day Production Rate – 504 CY / 8 Hour Day Crew – 1 Foreman – 4 Laborers – 1 Equipment Operators Equipment – 1 Paver – 1 Steel Roller – 1 Pneumatic Roller Total Estimated Cost = $120 / CY

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Cost-Based Estimating Example Summary of Methods MeansState Developed Data Construction Data Production Rate (CY / Day) 352200504 Crew (Total Number) 1186 Equipment (Total Number) 333 Cost ($ / CY) $143$149$120

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The Next Step Bid Analysis Engineers Estimate Bid Analysis Post- Construction Analysis

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Improving Bid Analysis DOT Specific Construction Data – Increased Certainty Levels – Single Bidder Analysis – Increased Control of Contractor Profit

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Bid Analysis Example Two-Lane Resurfacing Single Bidder Engineers Estimate: $1.6M Bid: $2.0M Difference 25% Contractor Sends Letter Stating They are Over Estimate Because of Low Production

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Engineers Estimate Bid Analysis Post- Construction Analysis The Next Step

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Improving Post-Construction Analysis DOT Specific Construction Data – Analyze Construction Activities Production Rates Labor Hours Equipment – Develop Cost-Based Estimating Worksheet Based on Actual DOT Specific Data – Change Order Analysis – Profit Margin Analysis

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Change Order Analysis District Requests cost evaluation of change order proposal – Contractor Claims Low Production Rate – Want to Verify Production Rate Based on Actual Construction Data – Collection of Post-Construction Data and Creation of Database Would Facilitate Analysis

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Profit Margin Analysis Profit Margin Analysis Can Only Be Performed if You Use Accurate and Precise Cost-Based Estimating Techniques Perform Profit Margin Analysis After a Project Has Been Constructed

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Profit Margins Analysis Material Cost(Known) +Labor Cost(Known) +Equipment Cost(Known) +Profit & Overhead (Unknown)* Cost Based Estimate(Known) *1 Equation, 1 Unknown, Can Solve For Unknown

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Conclusions DOT Specific Construction Data Improves Accuracy, Precision, and Certainty of all aspects of the estimating process from the development of the Engineers Estimate to Bid Analysis and beyond.

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