Presentation on theme: "Jump to first page What is Benefit Cost Analysis About?"— Presentation transcript:
Jump to first page What is Benefit Cost Analysis About?
Jump to first page CONCEPTUALLY BCA IS SIMPLE 1. Decide whose benefits and costs count (standing). 2. Select the portfolio of alternative projects. 3. Catalogue potential (physical) consequences and select measurement indicators. 4. Predict quantitative consequences over the life of the project. 5. Monetize (attach dollar values to) all consequences. 6. Discount for time to find present values. 7. Sum: Add up the benefits and costs. 8. Perform sensitivity analysis. 9. Recommend the alternative with the largest net benefit
Jump to first page Choice Goods are scarce because desire for them far outstrips their availability from nature. Scarcity forces us to choose among available alternatives. The good/alternative not chosen/sacrificed is the true cost of the good/alternative chosen/gained. We are especially concerned about choices that have longer-term consequences
Jump to first page Scarce Goods Food (bread, milk, meat, eggs, vegetables, coffee, etc.) Clothing (shirts, pants, blouses, shoes, socks, coats, sweaters, etc.) Household (tables, chairs, rugs, beds, goods dressers, television sets, etc.) Space exploration Education Medical services Recreation Leisure time Entertainment Clean air Pleasant (trees, lakes, rivers, environment open spaces, etc.) Pleasant working conditions Limited Resources Land (various degrees of fertility) Natural (rivers, trees, minerals, Resources oceans, etc.) Machines and other human-made physical resources Non-human animal resources Technology (physical and scientific recipes of history) Human (the knowledge, skill, resources and talent of individuals) Scarcity and Choice History is a record of our struggle to transform available, but limited resources … into scarce goods – things that we would like to have.
Jump to first page The use of scarce resources to produce a good is always costly Someone must give up something if we are to have more scarce goods. Since information is scarce, uncertainty is a fact of life. The value of a good is subjective and varies with individual preferences. Measured in terms of willingness and ability to pay and willingness and ability to sell The highest valued alternative that must be sacrificed is the opportunity cost of the choice. Assumptions
Jump to first page Assumptions Incentives matter As personal benefits (costs) from choosing an option increase, other things constant, a person will be more (less) likely to choose that option. Economic reasoning focuses on the effects of marginal changes in marginal costs and marginal benefits (utility) In addition to their initial impact, economic events often generate secondary effects that may be felt only with the passage of time.
Jump to first page OPTIMIZATION The basics The first thing we need to understand is the idea of optimization This just means finding the best alternative. The best alternative is called the optimal alternative, or the optimum Optimizing may entail maximizing something good, or minimizing something bad.
Jump to first page Benefits Benefits are anything that you consider good in a particular situation. That could be: Money Lives saved Votes (if you are a politician) Free time
Jump to first page Lets look at lives saved. An example of a benefit that you can see directly, but that is difficult to put in terms of money Modeling Healthcare Human Mortality Database
Jump to first page The Situation 1: youre the Minister of Health in a third- world country. Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières has offered your country 5 doctors. You must decide where to put themin which district. The more doctors you put into a district, the more lives you will save in that district. Your objective is to save as many lives as possible.
Jump to first page The Situation 2: You have five doctors and two districts, Kinshasa and Ituri. If we must use all the doctors together: we will put all five in Kinshasa or all five in Ituri. If we put them in Kinshasa we estimate they will save 925 lives; in Ituri, 920. If our objective is to save as many lives as possible, to maximize lives saved, where should we put the doctors Kinshasa
Jump to first page The rule is: choose the alternative with the biggest benefits. Why cant we save 925 lives in Kinshasa and 920 in Ituri? Limited or scarce resources. This means is that if we want to get benefits in one place, we have to give up benefits someplace else. Benefits we have to give up are called costs: the cost of something is whatever other benefits we have to give up to get it.
Jump to first page WHY? But Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières is providing these doctors. So what are we giving up by using them in the Kinshasa district? Answer: we are giving up lives in the Ituri district. So we could say that putting the doctors in Kinshasa has benefits of 925 lives and costs of 920 lives.
Jump to first page Rule 1a: Do something if its benefits are bigger than its costs. We can write this more compactly as: Do something if B > C. This is equivalent to saying: Do something if B - C > 0. The term B - C, the difference between benefits and costs, is referred to as the net benefits of that activity. So we could say: Do something if its net benefits are positive.
Jump to first page Marginal analysis Now we can split up the doctors; we can send some to Kinshasa and some to Ituri. Our objective is the same as before: to save as many lives as possible. How many doctors should we send to each district? To answer this question, we need information on the benefits of different numbers of doctors.
Jump to first page Benefit figures for Kinshasa: # of doctorsTotal Benefit (lives saved) 1300 2550 3750 4850 5925
Jump to first page There are two things about adding doctors in the Kinshasa district you should notice: Benefits are increasing. More is better: the more doctors we have, the more lives we save.WHY? Benefits are increasing at a decreasing rate WHY? [We can see this more easily if we calculate what is called the marginal benefit. This simply means the increase in total benefits from adding one more unit -- doctor]
Jump to first page What is the marginal benefit of adding a doctor in Kinshasa? Heres what that calculation looks like: # of doctorsTotal BenefitMarginal Benefit 1300 2550250 3750200 4850100 592575
Jump to first page Relationship between TB & MB Because the concepts of total and marginal are used a lot in applied welfare economics (BCA), its important to make sure that you understand the relation between the two. As long as marginal benefits are positive (i.e. greater than zero), total benefits will be increasing. Only when marginal benefits are negative will total benefits start to decrease. How would we go from marginal benefit to total benefit? The total benefits are just the sum of the marginal benefits.
Jump to first page What is the marginal benefit of adding a doctor in Ituri? # of doctorsTotal BenefitMarginal Benefit 1320 2560240 3730170 4840100 592080
Jump to first page Benefits and costs of doctors in Kinshasa # of doctors Marginal Benefit Marginal Cost Total Benefit Total Cost 13008030080 2250110550190 3200170750360 4100240850600 575320925920
Jump to first page Net Benefits of doctors in Kinshasa # of doctors Marginal Benefit Marginal Cost Total Benefit Total Cost Net Benefit 13008030080220 2250110550190360 3200170750360390 4100240850600250 5753209259205
Jump to first page The general rule that we can see from this example is: Rule 2a: To maximize net benefits, continue as long as marginal net benefits are positive (MNB>0). Or equivalently: Rule 2b: To maximize net benefits, continue as long as marginal benefits are greater than marginal costs (MB>MC).
Jump to first page Review of what we did 1 First, we had an objective. Here, our objective was to save as many lives as possible. Then, we had to make some decisions about alternative ways of meeting those objectives. We are trying to optimize, which just means to do the best we can do with respect to our alternative. Each alternative had benefits associated with it, which are good things that we get from those alternatives. It also had costs, which are other good things that we have to give up in order to get these good things.
Jump to first page Review of what we did 2 What we want is for the net benefits, the benefits minus the costs, to be as big as possible. If we had a money-making business, say a restaurant, then benefits would be the money that comes in from our customers, and the costs would be the money that goes out for food and cooks and waitresses and rent and so on. Then net benefits would be the same thing as profit. But net benefits could be something else, like lives saved.
Jump to first page Review of what we did 3 When the question is how much of something to do, its helpful to look at marginal benefits and costs. Saying that we want net benefits to be as big as possible is the same as saying that we want to continue as long as marginal net benefits are positive, which is to say, as long as marginal benefits are greater than marginal costs.
Jump to first page Some bad rules Benefit Cost Ratios Do something if B >C. Dividing both sides by C, we can see that this is equivalent to a rule that says: Do something if B/C > 1. But this does not mean that we should make the choice with the biggest benefit-cost ratio.
Jump to first page Benefit Cost Ratios Examined # of doctors MBMCTBTCNBTB/TC MB- MC 130080300802203.75 22501105501903602.892.27 3200170750360 390 2.081.18 41002408506002501.420.42 57532092592051.010.23
Jump to first page Dealing with large numbers When its inconvenient to think of benefits and costs as changing in many tiny little steps (although that is whats actually happening), we can think of them as changing continuously. Then we stop at the point where they are exactly zero, or where MB = MC. This is only an approximation. In most cases, there wont be any point where marginal benefits and marginal costs are exactly equal. The more general rule is Rule 2, to continue as long as marginal net benefits are positive, or MB > MC.
Jump to first page Get Real How an economist would look at this issue: Triage/sorting Theory tells we should allocate some of our Drs. To both sites: 3/2 or 2/3 Data arent really good enough to make choice Why did I do it with numbers rather than theory? A Cost–Benefit Analysis of Cholera Vaccination Programs in Beira, Mozambique
Jump to first page Review of what we did 1. Decide whose benefits and costs count (standing). 2. Select the portfolio of alternative projects. 3. Catalogue potential (physical) consequences and select measurement indicators. 4. Predict quantitative consequences over the life of the project. 5. Monetize (attach dollar values to) all consequences. 6. Discount for time to find present values. 7. Sum: Add up the benefits and costs. 8. Perform sensitivity analysis. 9. Recommend the alternative with the largest net benefit