Presentation on theme: "The Montreal Protocol and Climate Change"— Presentation transcript:
1The Montreal Protocol and Climate Change 31 March 2017Marco Gonzalez Ozone Secretariat UNEP DECEMBER 2007
2Vienna Convention / Montreal Protocol 31 March 2017Vienna Convention / Montreal ProtocolObjectives:VC: to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting from modifications of the ozone layerMP: to protect the ozone layerIn addition, the 4th preamble paragraph to the Montreal Protocol states“Conscious of the potential climatic effects of emissions of these substances,”Therefore climate change was consideredWe probably all know that the primary objectives of the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol was to to protect the ozone layer, and specifically to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting from modifications of the ozone layer. However, the negotiators of the protocol were also conscious of the potential benefits to the climate system.
3A successful multilateral environmental agreement 31 March 2017The Montreal ProtocolA successful multilateral environmental agreementPhased-out over 95% of global consumption of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 yearsOzone layer on path to recover by mid-centuryAverted many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract casesWith time, the protocol has come to be considered one of the more successful multilateral environmental agreement, having phased-out over 95% of global consumption of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 years. As I will show in the coming slides, the ozone layer is on the path to recover by the middle of this century and many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract cases were averted.
431 March 2017Global Annual Consumption: Parties had achieved an aggregate 96% reduction in all ODSsFrom the latest data reported by all the Parties in 2006, the worldwide consumption and production of all ozone depleting substances has drastically diminished reducing by over 95% from the 1980’s levels. In developed countries consumption has dropped by more than 99 per cent of all ozone depleting substances with baseline
5S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006 31 March 2017 The 2006 Scientific Assessment Report provided new evidence that the stratospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances continues to show a downward trend, demonstrating that over time, the ozone layer will heal This graph charts the decline in stratospheric levels of ozone-depleting substances, illustrating the success of the Montreal Protocol.S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006
6Effects of the Montreal Protocol and Amendments: Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract cases31 March 2017Another important achievement of the Parties of the Protocol relates to the legal framework that has allowed the flexibility to strengthen the Protocol by accelerating the imposition of controls on ozone-depleting substances six times in response to critical scientific or technical information provided by the assessment Panels. This strengthening process has not only achieved the eventual total phase out of the controlled substances but also has averted , according to estimates, many millions of cancer deaths, perhaps hundreds of millions of cancer and cataracts cases, and certainly has averted the expenditure of corresponding millions of dollars to the national health organizations worldwide.
7Parallels between the conventions and the protocols 31 March 2017Parallels between the conventions and the protocolsThe Vienna Convention adopted in 1985The Montreal Protocol adopted in 1987Entry into force in 1989Amended 4 times: 1990, 1992, 1997 & 1999Adjusted 6 times96 substances controlled191 Parties so farThe Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997Entry into force in 2005Amended once in 2006Basket of 6 gases controlled176 Parties so farIn this slide, I show some of similarities between the two regimes – Ozone Protections and Climate Change. As can be seen, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol have a time lag of approximately 10 years when compared with the corresponding Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol. Thus it is reasonable to expect that the climate change regime can take advantage of the lessons from the Ozone regime.
8Substance GWP ODP CFC-12 10,720 ± 3750 1 CFC-114 9880 3460 CFC-115 31 March 2017SubstanceGWPODPCFC-1210,72037501CFC-11498803460CFC-115725025400.6CFC-113603021100.8CFC-1168001640HCFC-142b22708000.065HCFC-2217806200.055HCFC-141b7132500.11Halon-13017030246010Halon-121118606503Halon-240216205706Carbon Tetrachloride13804801.1Methyl Chloroform144500.1Methyl Bromide52Another Linkage between Montreal Protocol and Climate Change is that many Substances controlled under the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases as depicted in this table. Therefore reductions in emissions from substances controlled under the Protocol generated corresponding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions too.
931 March 2017Consumption under Montreal Protocol: Measured in equivalent GWP-tonnes of CO2 emissions – note the increasing significance of HCFCsAnd this chart depicts the reduction in terms of equivalent global warming potential tonnes of gases controlled under the Montreal Protocol, and is an indication of reduction in possible emissions. You note the increasing significance of HCFCs as the other substances were phased out earlier.
10Climate Benefits of Ozone Protection 31 March 2017Climate Benefits of Ozone ProtectionIPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate first highlighted the GWP-weighted emissionsDecember 2006: Velders, et al., The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting ClimateMP will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between 1990 and 2010This is delaying climate change by up to 12 yearsIf voluntary efforts & domestic measures from 1970s are taken into account, delay is up to 41 yearsThe IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate first highlighted climate change benefits derived from the Montreal Protocol, andGuus J.M. Velders, et al., in their article titledThe Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate, noted that the Montreal Protocol will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between 1990 and 2010, thereby delaying climate change effects by up to 12 years. If the voluntary efforts and domestic measures from 1970s are taken into account, the delay comes up to 41 years
11Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007 31 March 2017This charts depicts the projections under various scenarios.The red line is projected emissions of carbon dioxide through 2020.The green line is the GWP-weighted emissions of ozone-depleting substances IF Molina and Rowland had never discovered the impact of CFCs on the ozone layer and the world had never taken any steps to phase-out ODSs. Under this scenario, the global warming potential from ODS emissions would be as great or greater than the warming potential of carbon dioxide by 2020.The blue line is the GWP-weighted emissions of ODSs IF the Montreal Protocol had never entered into force. Under this scenario, the GWP of ODS emissions would be about half of the GWP of carbon dioxide emissions.Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007
12Triumph in Montreal 31 March 2017 This depicts the atmosphere in Montreal where the Parties to the Montreal Protocol took the deliberate decision to accelerate the control measures for HCFCs conscious of the benefits to both the ozone layer and climate change.
1331 March 2017This graph shows the potential climate benefits of the accelerated HCFC phase-out. Maximizing the climate benefits of the HCFC phase-out depends on ensuring that HCFCs are replaced with zero and low GWP chemical substitutes and more energy efficient equipment.
14Developing Countries HCFC Schedule 31 March 2017Developing Countries HCFC ScheduleNew Control ScheduleOld Control Schedule2013: Freeze at average of levels2015: 10% reduction2020: 35% reduction2025: 67.5% reduction2030: 100% reduction while allowing 2.5% for refrigeration and A/C servicing until 2040.-2016: Freeze at 2015 levels2040: 100% reductionThis is a comparison between the previous and the accelerated HCFC control measures for developing countries. As you can see, the freeze date was brought forward by 3 years, but more importantly, intermediate reduction steps were introduced where there were previously none.
15Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs New 31 March 2017Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs NewThis chart is a graphical representation of the previous slide.
1631 March 2017Article 5 HCFC Consumption: Savings from the New HCFC Adjustments (assumes freeze at previous base level of 2015)This chart shows the savings from the new adjustments, assuming previous the consumption growth would have been linear up to the freeze level.
17Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision 31 March 2017Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionParagraph 5 on financial and technical assistance:“To agree that the funding available through the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of MP in the upcoming replenishments shall be stable and sufficient to meet all agreed incremental costs to enable A5 parties to comply with the accelerated phase-out schedule both for production and consumption sectors as set out above, and based on that understanding, to also direct the Executive Committee of Multilateral Fund to make the necessary changes to the eligibility criteria related to the post-1995 facilities and second conversions.”And finally, a key success factor of the Montreal Protocol is the financial mechanism for developing nations. Therefore as part of the adjustment on HCFCs, the Parties also agreed to the availability of funding for incremental costs of developing nations.
18Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision 31 March 2017Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionParagraph 9 on climate change:“To encourage Parties to promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic considerations.”Paragraph 11 on climate change“To … give priority to cost-effective projects and programmes which focus on … [s]ubstitutes and alternatives that minimize other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into account global warming potential, energy use, and other relevant facts.”And further within that agreement was the reference to climate change and the need to choose alternatives and substitutes with minimal effects on climate change.
19GAZING INTO THE FUTUREAn agreement that is doing so much for ozone —and for climate— clearly deserves our attention. It has much to teach us. .