2 Globalization-Pro and con * Economically, socially and ecologically positive: As an engine of commerce; one which brings an increased standard of living — prosperity to developing countries and further wealth to First World and Third World countries.* Economically, socially, and ecologically negative: As an engine of "corporate imperialism"; one which tramples over the human rights of developing societies, claims to bring prosperity, yet often simply amounts to plundering and profiteering. Negative effects include cultural assimilation via cultural imperialism, the export of artificial wants, and the destruction or inhibition of authentic local and global community, ecology and cultures.
3 “Wash. Consensus” (TINA) =GLOBALIZATION * Specialize in products for export* Trade liberalization – Eliminate subsidies and tarrifs* Openness to foreign direct investment;* Privatization of state enterprises;* Deregulation – abolition of regulations that impede market entry or restrict competition,* Legal security for property rights.
5 The Interwar Years, 1918-1939 International Economic Disintegration Many countries suffered during the Great Depression.Major economic harm was done by restrictions on international trade and payments.These beggar-thy-neighbor policies provoked foreign retaliation and led to the disintegration of the world economy.All countries’ situations could have been bettered through international cooperationBretton Woods agreement
6 The Interwar Years,With the eruption of WWI in 1914, the gold standard was suspended.The interwar years were marked by severe economic instability.The reparation payments led to episodes of hyperinflation in Europe.The German HyperinflationGermany’s price index rose from a level of 262 in January 1919 to a level of 126,160,000,000,000 in December 1923 (a factor of billion).
7 Foreign Exchange controls Foreign exchange controls undermined the international payments system that was the basis for world trade. The "beggar thy neighbor" policies of 1930s governments—using currency devaluations to increase the competitiveness of a country's export products in order to reduce balance of payments deficits—worsened national deflationary spirals, which resulted in plummeting national incomes, shrinking demand, mass unemployment, and an overall decline in world trade.
8 Cause of wars?Hull believed that the fundamental causes of the two world wars lay in economic discrimination and trade warfare. Specifically, he had in mind the trade and exchange controls (bilateral arrangements) of Nazi Germany and the imperial preference system practiced by Britain (by which members or former members of the British Empire were accorded special trade status). Hull argued“ [U]nhampered trade dovetailed with peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair economic competition, with war…if we could get a freer flow of trade…freer in the sense of fewer discriminations and obstructions…so that one country would not be deadly jealous of another and the living standards of all countries might rise, thereby eliminating the economic dissatisfaction that breeds war, we might have a reasonable chance of lasting peace.
9 Cause of wars? FREE TRADE= PEACE? New Dealer Harry Dexter White, the principal architect of the Bretton Woods system, put it:“ the absence of a high degree of economic collaboration among the leading nations will…inevitably result in economic warfare that will be but the prelude and instigator of military warfare on an even vaster scale. ”FREE TRADE= PEACE?
10 International Monetary System Slide 9-1International Monetary SystemCurrency exchange rates depend on the structure of the international monetary systemGenerally they are not freely convertible and do not float freelyOnly 51 were freely convertible in 1997Another 50 were pegged to the exchange rate of major currencies such as the US Dollar and the French Franc or to baskets of other currenciesAnother 45 currencies were allowed by their governments to float within a range of another currencyThis is 146 of 188 UN member nations in 1999
11 Evolution of the International Monetary System Slide 9-2Evolution of the International Monetary SystemGold StandardCurrencies pegged to the value of gold; convertibility guaranteedBy 1880 most countries were on the gold standardAchieves balance of trade equilibrium for all countries (value of exports equals value of imports); flow of gold was used to make up differencesAbandoned in 1914; attempt to resume after WWI failed with Great DepressionBretton Woods (1944)
12 Slide 9-3Bretton Woods ( )44 countries met to design a new system in 1944Established International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World BankIMF maintained order in monetary systemWorld Bank promoted general economic developmentFixed exchange rates pegged to the US DollarUS Dollar pegged to gold at $35 per ounceCountries maintained their currencies ± 1% of the fixed rate; government had to buy/sell their currency to maintain level
13 US hegemonyMajority of investment capital, manufacturing production and exportsProduced half the world's coal, two-thirds of the oil, and more than half of the electricity.Able to produce great quantities of machinery, including ships, airplanes, vehicles, armaments, machine tools, and chemicals.80% of gold reserves and had not only a powerful army but also the atomic bomb.
14 The Role of the IMF per Bretton Woods Slide 9-4The Role of the IMF per Bretton WoodsExchange rate disciplineNational governments had to manage inflation through their money supplyExchange rate flexibilityProvided loans to help members states with temporary balance-of-payment deficit;Allowed time to bring down inflationRelieved pressures to devalueExcessive drawing from IMF funds came with IMF supervision of monetary and fiscal policiesAllowed up to 10% devaluations and more with IMF approval
15 What is IMF Structural Adjustment? * Cutting social expenditures, also known as austerity,* Focusing econ output on direct export and resource extraction,* Devaluation of overvalued currencies,* Trade liberalization, or lifting import and export restrictions,* Increasing the stability of investment (by supplementing foreign direct investment with the opening of domestic stock markets, also raise interest rates)* Balancing budgets and not overspending,* Removing price controls and state subsidies,* Privatization, or divestiture of state-owned enterprises,* Enhancing the rights of foreign investors vis-a-vis national laws,* Improving governance and fighting corruption.
16 The Role of the World Bank Slide 9-5The Role of the World BankWorld Bank (IBRD-International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) roleRefinance post-WWII reconstruction and developmentProvide low-interest long term loans to developing economiesThe International Development Agency (IDA), an arm of the bank created in 1960Raises funds from member statesLoans only to poorest countries50 year repayment at 1% per year interest
17 Collapse of Bretton Woods Slide 9-6Collapse of Bretton WoodsDevaluation pressures on US dollar after 20 yearsLyndon Johnson policiesVietnam war financingWelfare program financingNixon ended gold convertibility of US dollar in 1971US dollar was devalued and dealers started speculating against it for further devaluationBretton Woods fixed exchange rates abandoned in January 1972
18 Jamaica Agreement 1976 Floating rates declared acceptable Slide 9-7Jamaica Agreement 1976Floating rates declared acceptableGold abandoned as reserve asset;IMF returned its gold reserves to its members at current pricesProceeds were placed in a trust fund to help poor nationsIMF quotas – member country contributions – increased; membership now 182 countriesLess-develop, non-oil exporting countries given more access to IMFIMF continued its role of helping countries cope with macroeconomic and exchange rate problems
19 The Case for Floating Exchange Rates Slide 9-8The Case for Floating Exchange RatesMonetary policy autonomyTrade balance adjustments helpedThe Case for Fixed Exchange RatesMonetary disciplineSpeculation limitedUncertainty reducedTrade balance adjustment effects on inflation controlledWho is right?
20 Recent Activities and the IMF Slide 9-9Recent Activities and the IMFMexican crisis 1995Russian crisis1995Asian crisis 1997/1998The investment boomExcess capacityThe debt bombExpanding importsThe crisisHow did the IMF do?Inappropriate policies?Moral hazardReckless behaviorNo consequencesLack of accountabilityRecord mixed
21 Implications for Business Slide 9-11Implications for BusinessCurrency managementThe monetary system is not perfectBoth speculative activity and government intervention affect the systemCompanies must use risk management instrumentsBusiness strategyMinimize risk by placing assets in different parts of the world, e.g., productionContract manufacturingManage company-government relations
22 WTOThe World Trade Organization (WTO) is an international organization designed to supervise and liberalize international trade. The WTO came into being on 1 January 1995, and is the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which was created in 1947, and continued to operate for almost five decades as a de facto international organization.
24 Growth Factors Macroeconomic Policy and Trade Natural Resources Find market-access to intl markets-export dependenceGovt spending->debt->inflation BUTStrict budgets can lead to underinvestmentNatural ResourcesArable land, minerals, ports, climate BUTHong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Nigeria
25 Growth Factors Foreign Capital Financial Legal Regulatory Institutions Bi-lateral assistanceMulti-lateral assistanceMixed results-debtForeign Direct InvestmentFinancial Legal Regulatory InstitutionsProperty rights and contract enforcementCoporate and bank regulationsCorrption internal conflice, instability
26 Figure 14.7 Net Capital Flows to Developing Countries, 1997-2005
27 Virtuous Cycles in development High savings, investment, productivity growth, economic expansion:Japan,Asian Tigers: Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, SingaporeKey element:HUMAN CAPITAL-education, training, etc.EX: Korea1960: universal primary education, investment in higher edInvestment in physical capital encouraged thru policies to increase household savings and private investment.Savings 1/3 of GDP=highests exports 10%GDP->40%GDPEgalitarian distribution of income
28 with Area Proportional to Population Figure 15.1 The Relation Between Average Life Expectancy and GDP Per Capita,with Area Proportional to Population
29 Figure 14.4 The Unequal Distribution of the World’s Income, 2000
30 DEVELOPMENT THEORIES Modernization Theory Modernization Theory is a theory of development which states that the development can be achieved through following the processes of development that were used by the currently developed countries.Dependency TheoryInformed by Marxist insights, they argued that development was a result of underdevelopment, and underdevelopment was a result of development. Their conclusion was that for underdeveloped nations to develop, they must break their ties with developed nations and pursue internal growth. Such policies were crafted from this insight were Import substitution industrialization.World Systems TheoryIn response to some of the criticisms of Dependency Theory came World Systems Theory, which the division of periphery and center was further divided into a trimodal system consisting of the core, semi-periphery and periphery. In this system, the semi-periphery lies between the core and periphery and is exploited by the core and exploits the periphery. This division aims to explain the industrialization within lesser developed countries. Out of this theory stem anti-systemic movements which attempt to reverse the terms of the system's inequality through social democratic and labor movements.State TheoryIn response to the distrust of the state in World Systems Theory, is State Theory. State Theory is based upon the view that the economy is intertwined with politics and therefore the take-off period in development is unique to each country. State Theory emphasized the effects of class relations and the strength and autonomy of the state on historical outcomes.
31 DEVELOPMENT THEORIES Indigenous Theory- Comparative advantage Economic theory predicts all countries gain if they specialise and trade the goods in which they have a comparative advantage. This is true even if one nation has an absolute advantage over another country.RostowThis is a linear theory of development. Economies can be divided into primary secondary and tertiary sectors. The history of developed countries suggests a common pattern of structural change:Harrod-DomarThe Harrod-Domar model developed in the l930s suggests savings provide the funds which are borrowed for investment purposes.LewisThe Lewis model is structural change model that explains how labour transfers in a dual economy. For Lewis growth of the industrial sector drives economic growth.Balanced Growth TheoryBalanced growth (or the big push) theory argues that as a large number of industries develop simultaneously, each generates a market for one another.Unbalanced Growth TheoryUnbalanced growth theorists argue that sufficient resources cannot be mobilised by government to promote widespread, coordinated investments in all industries