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1 www.isciences.com April 5, 2013 The 11 th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change Reporton DOHA COP18

2 Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992. Report on Doha is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which was held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.COP18 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.htmlhttp://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: 2008 Kyoto and Beyond 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 2011 Report on Cancun COP16 2011 Road to Durban COP17 2012 Report on Durban COP17 2012 Road to Rio+20 2012 Report on Rio+20 2012 Road to Doha COP18 2Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

3 Overview Outcomes Climate Science Looking Ahead This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Contents 3Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

4 Overview: Timeline 4Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 2011 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1990 IPCC 1 st Assessment Report released 1990 IPCC 1 st Assessment Report released 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 (Image Credit: NASA) 2012 Doha Climate Gateway adopted at COP18 2012 Doha Climate Gateway adopted at COP18 2001 IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 2001 IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 1995 IPCC 2 nd Assessment Report 1995 IPCC 2 nd Assessment Report

5 Overview: Global Conditions Increasingly, the global community has issued urgent warnings about the need for action on climate change. We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. – US President Barack Obama, inaugural speech Jan. 21, 2013 "There will be water and food fights everywhere. - Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013 "I got it wrong on climate change - it's far, far worse … Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential … What we're talking about then is extended world war. – Lord Nicholas Stern, economist, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013 Were on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.– World Bank and Potsdam Institute Report, Nov. 2012, Turn Down the HeatTurn Down the Heat (Image Credit: Center for American Progress Action Fund via Wikimedia Commons) 5Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled – Christine Lagarde, managing director International Monetary Fund at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

6 Overview: Objectives COP18s objectives were to: finalize KP2, close the Long- term Cooperative Action strand, and advance discussions on the new post-KP 2020 treaty. Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules. (AWG-KP*) Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the Bali Action Plan and retire the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action. (AWG-LCA*)Bali Action Plan Create a new treaty. Begin a process to translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. (ADP*) At its conclusion COP18 closed the working groups on the Kyoto Protocol and on Long-term Cooperative Action. Henceforth, the Durban Platform will be the single negotiating forum. 6Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) * AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto ProtocolAd Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the ConventionAd Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

7 Outcomes: Doha Climate Gateway The term "Doha Climate Gateway, coined by COP18 President al-Attiyah, refers to the package of outcomes from COP18 in Doha. After 13 lackluster yet contentious days, a package of decisions called the Doha Climate Gateway was delivered, accompanied by sighs of relief but no fanfare.package of decisions (Image Credit: UNFCCC) "Doha has opened up a new gateway to bigger ambition and to greater action - the Doha Climate Gateway – Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President COP 18 7Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Al-Attiyah, whose advisors included oil company lawyers, eventually enlisted the help of Brazils Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, a force at Rio+20, and South Africas Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President.Rio+20 In the final plenary, Al-Attiya quickly gaveled through all the decisions and overruled a serious objection from Russia on carry-over of surplus allowances in the Kyoto Protocol.

8 Outcomes: KP2 Transition 8Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Duration. The 2 nd KP commitment period is 8 years, Jan. 1, 2013-Dec. 31, 2020. Ratification. Parties may provisionally apply the amendment, pending its entry into force through national ratification.amendment Players. Japan, New Zealand, and Russia will not participate. Canada left the Protocol in 2011. What's left will have limited impact as the KP now represents only 15% of carbon emissions. If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where? Before breathing last gasps of life into the Kyoto Protocol by adopting terms of its 2nd period, negotiators witnessed this impassioned plea from Philippine representative Naderev Sano. (Image and Video Credit: DavidLeeWilsonYT; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY Global reactions included both relief that the troubled Protocol would bridge the gap until a 2020 treaty and disappointment that the Protocol would never fulfill the destiny envisioned at its inception.

9 Outcomes: KP2 Hot Air Agreement was reached on KP2s hot air details – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon credits. 9Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Emissions targets. KP2 Annex I parties committed to emissions reductions averaging 18% below 1990 levels and will review commitments by 2014 to increase ambition to at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.reductions averaging 18% below 1990 levels Currently, the new targets trail significantly behind the IPCCs recommendation of 25%-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2 C. Flexibility mechanisms. KP2 Annex I parties will be able to trade carbon credits generated by flexibility mechanisms. Non-KP2 parties (Canada, Japan, Russia, New Zealand) may participate in CDM* projects but cannot acquire or transfer credits. Carbon credits. KP2 parties are allowed limited, conditional carry-over of surplus credits from KP1. Credits will be held in a new account (Previous Period Surplus Reserve) and can be traded if a country exceeds its new target and if that target is more ambitious than KP1. The number of credits countries can trade is limited. * CDM-Clean Development MechanismCDM-Clean Development Mechanism

10 Outcomes: KP2 Dissent One of the most vocal dissents at COP18 came from Russia over restrictions on carbon credit carry-over. 10Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) For some time now Russia has declared that it will not participate in KP2, but now may take other countries with it. Russia and several other Eastern European countries had amassed a huge cache of carbon credits from closure of state- owned industrial enterprises and fought to retain these. There is speculation that Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan could refuse to ratify the extension of Kyoto. Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus A month after COP18, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan met to discuss an amendment to the KP that requires industrialized countries to not exceed 2008-10 emissions levels. They contend that they should not be required to meet the goal as they continue to industrialize.

11 Outcomes: LCA & Bali Action Plan Negotiators in Doha retired the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Bali Action Plan (AWG-LCA) and channeled remaining issues into ongoing UNFCCC subsidiary bodies. Shared Vision Mitigation Adaptation Loss and Damage Technology Finances Economies in Transition Issues: 11Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action PlanAgreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Dec. 8, 2012 Dohas actions on these issues were rendered in the outcome document Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan. Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan.

12 Outcomes: Shared Vision COP18 asserted the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities principle (CBDR) as Parties urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. COP18 reaffirmed that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and that their efforts will be based on respective capabilities. 12Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) This shared vision includes attainment of global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.Fourth Assessment Report Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action PlanAgreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section I, Dec. 8, 2012

13 Outcomes: Mitigation Mitigation outcomes for developed countries focused on ambition and targets. Work to increase ambitions in line with the IPCC AR4*;IPCC AR4 Clarify emissions targets through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA*); countries must submit clarification of their targets by Mar. 25, 2013. 13Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) * IPCC AR4-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for ImplementationSBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical AdviceSBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation Much of the oversight responsibility for mitigation efforts was transferred to UNFCCC subsidiary bodies. Mitigation outcomes for developing countries focused on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). Advance the understanding of NAMAs through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI*); The Secretariat will organize regional technical workshops on NAMAs. Introduced as a new mechanism in the Bali Action Plan 2007, NAMAs recognize individual country actions defined on the basis of economic and social development needs, and thereby make them eligible for international support in the form of capacity building, technology and financial assistance. NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions The NAMA Partnership – a coalition of UN agencies, development banks, and bilateral organizations - was launched on the sidelines of COP18 to share information and coordinate NAMA activitiesNAMA Partnership

14 Outcomes: REDD+ 14Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) REDD+* donor countries, led by Norway, asserted that payments should be tied to quantified emissions reductions, and urged independent verification. Little progress was made on REDD+ at COP18. Negotiations centered on results-based finance. Some believe that REDD+ will move in the direction of forest carbon trading. Mangrove Forest Credit: Arunchristopher via Wikimedia Commons * REDD+- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for ImplementationReducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest DegradationSBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical AdviceSBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation Developing countries, led by Brazil, want results-based finance to include social and environmental benefits, and argue that they are already required to submit GHG inventories to receive climate finance. COP18 concluded with no agreement on the issues. The SBSTA* and SBI* will initiate a process to improve the coordination and support for REDD+ activities.

15 Outcomes: Markets 15Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Parties also agreed to recognize mechanisms established outside the UNFCCC, such as national or bilateral offsets. Tasks related to the use of markets and of new market mechanisms in mitigation were passed on to the UNFCCCs Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice. COP18 requested the SBSTA* to conduct separate work programs to elaborate a framework for using markets and non-market approaches, and to establish procedures for new market-based mechanisms. New market mechanisms might cover a whole sector in a developing country rather than individual projects as the CDM* does. Concepts include sectoral trading (cap-and-trade) and sectoral crediting (a baseline-and-credit approach).cap-and-tradebaseline-and-credit Building on the success of the Clean Development Mechanism, the UNFCCC intends to establish new market-based instruments within the international climate policy framework that would generate carbon credits which can be used to meet part of developed countries targets. New Market Mechanisms * SBSTA - SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; CDM-Clean Development MechanismSBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical AdviceClean Development Mechanism

16 Outcomes: Adaptation The COP made decisions on two important adaptation matters: National Adaptation Plans and the Adaptation Committee. COP18 approved guidelines to help Parties develop National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) – long-term, flexible, and iterative planning processes to help build adaptive capacity and respond to climate change. 16Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The Adaptation Committee will hold an annual forum in conjunction with the COP to improve global exchange on adaptation. Monsoon floods in Ambala, India 2010 Credit: Harsh Mangal via Wikimedia Commons A 3-yr work plan of the Adaptation Committee to unite various adaptation workstreams under the UNFCCC and outside the Convention was also approved. This is a departure from National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) – short-term, highly project-based, limited to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Both LDCs and non- LDC developing countries will receive funding to develop NAPs from the Global Environment Facility.

17 Outcomes: Loss & Damage One surprise at Doha was the emergence of a strong movement to articulate the UNFCCCs role in addressing loss and damage associated with climate change. Under pressure from LDCs* and island states Parties agreed to establish institutional arrangements to help vulnerable, developing countries deal with losses and damages from climate change. 17Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) This could provide means to address rehabilitation, reconstruction, and compensation for damages from extreme and slow-onset weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, and drought. However, interpreting this declaration into action was left to future COPs. Some developed countries voiced objections to any articulation in the loss and damage concept that implied liability by countries with historically high GHG emissions. *LDCs-Least Developed Countries Draft decision-/CP.18, Approaches to address loss and damageDraft decision-/CP.18, Approaches to address loss and damage, para 9

18 Outcomes: Technology 18Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Doha did not advance the conversation on technology transfer or the contentious issue of intellectual property rights. The UNFCCC has evolved several conduits for development and transfer of technology.* * See: UNFCCC Technology Work, http://unfccc.int/focus/technology/items/7000.phphttp://unfccc.int/focus/technology/items/7000.php There is no reference to IPR in the outcome document, rendering IPRs relation to technology transfer in the UNFCCC decidedly vague. The contentious issue of intellectual property rights (IPR), one of the most controversial issues in Doha, generated spirited discussion. Developing countries supported further consideration of IPR, while developed countries were opposed. In Doha Parties agreed to clarify at upcoming COPs the relationships between these bodies, particularly between the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology and Network Centre (CTNC). UNEP was selected to lead a consortium and develop the CTCN. Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action PlanAgreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section IV, Dec. 8, 2012

19 Outcomes: Finances At COP18 countries were urged to scale up climate finance since many have not begun to fulfill commitments made in Copenhagen to mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation. 19Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Germany, UK, France, Denmark, Sweden and the EU Commission pledged $10 billion USD up to 2015. The Doha agreement called on them to pledge a portion specifically for 2013-15 to prevent a gap between the fast start finance period (which ended in 2012) and 2020. Recognizing that financial tracking has been problematic, Doha scheduled accounting issues to be addressed by 2014. Economies-in-Transition (EITs) will be allowed some flexibility until 2020 with regard to the provision of financial resources to non-Annex I parties. EITs are Parties officially recognized by the UNFCCC as transitioning to a market economy.EITs Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action PlanAgreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section V, Dec. 8, 2012

20 Outcomes: 2020 Treaty Parties agreed to work speedily toward a universal climate change agreement covering all countries from 2020 to be adopted by 2015, and to scale up efforts before 2020 beyond existing emissions reduction pledges. Discussions on the Durban Platform will proceed under two workstreams: pre-2020 and post-2020. 20Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) To work speedily toward a new treaty, a second session of the ADP* may be held Apr. 29-May 3, 2013 in Bonn, Germany if funding is available. Meetings and workshops will be held in 2013 to prepare the new agreement. * ADP-Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Image: UN Flags Credit: Aotearoa via Wikimedia Commons Proposals to enhance ambition must be submitted by governments by Mar. 1, 2013. To mobilize political will world leaders will convene in 2014 at the request of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Elements of a negotiating text must be available at the end of 2014 and a draft text must be available before May 2015.

21 Science: Emerging Issues But while the multilateral negotiating process slowly grinds on, climate science supports more aggressive efforts. 21Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Current KP2 emissions reduction commitments from Annex I countries average 18%*. A new study** suggests that Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions by 50% for a medium chance of achieving 2 C. new study * average of 18% emission reduction by Annex I parties below 1990 levels by 2020; BAU-business as usual ** den Elzen, Michel G.J., Andries F. Hof,Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands According to the report, the contribution to the global CO 2 budget reduction from non-Annex I countries is tracking in figures low enough to necessitate a significant jump in the target for Annex I countries. Though COP18 articulated that Annex I commitments must increase to 25-40% by 2020, as recommended in the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report, this may not be enough.Fourth Assessment Report One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projections have led to about 2.5 GtCO 2 eq higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex I countries…This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2 °C, Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020 - Michel G. J. den Elzen, et al, Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands, 2013

22 Science: Balancing the Budget 22Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) Many scientists believe that 2 C is too lenient a target, and that the window of opportunity to constrain that trajectory is quickly closing. With a twenty-year delay, you can throw as much money as you have at the problem, and the best outcome you can get is a fifty-fifty chance of keeping temperature rise below two degrees. – Keywan Riahi, IIASA* energy program leader Current scientific estimates place our global carbon budget at no more than about 565 gigatons of CO 2 by 2050 to still have a reasonable chance of staying within the 2 C target. Average global temperature is up 0.8 C, and models indicate that even if CO 2 levels stabilized immediately the increase would continue. At current rates (2011 emissions were 31.6 gigatons, up 3.2% from 2010) we are projected to expend that budget by 2024. Tough targets could force sequestration of 80% of an estimated 2,795 gigatons of untapped fossil fuel reserves. * IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

23 Ahead: COP19 Warsaw The UNFCCC will reconvene at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland Nov.11-22, 2013. Poland, like Qatar, has work to do to convince the global forum that it can lead an effective climate summit. During COP18 Poland argued over carbon credits and held the EU back from greater emissions cuts. Watch for future installments of ISciences Kyoto and Beyond series at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Whats Next? Nov. 11-22, 2013: COP19 Warsaw, 19 th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 9 th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol 23Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) The larger issue is whether the UNFCCCs lumbering and beleaguered brand can produce effective multilateral action. Failing that, will any strong bi- or tri-lateral coalitions emerge in time?

24 Sources Beyer, Jeff. Jan. 23. 2013. Doha: It kept the show on the road – but only just. Carbon Trust. http://www.carbontrust.com/news/2013/01/doha-it-kept-the-show-on-the- road-but-only-justhttp://www.carbontrust.com/news/2013/01/doha-it-kept-the-show-on-the- road-but-only-just Business Green. Jan. 29, 2013. Russian row over Kyoto extension rumbles on. The Green Business Guide. http://www.greenbusinessguide.co.za/russian-row-over-kyoto- extension-rumbles-on/http://www.greenbusinessguide.co.za/russian-row-over-kyoto- extension-rumbles-on/ Carbon Protocol of SA. COP18 at Doha. http://www.carbonprotocol.org/news-announcements/246-cop18-at-doha.htmlhttp://www.carbonprotocol.org/news-announcements/246-cop18-at-doha.html Carus, Felicity. Nov. 12, 2012. American Energy Renaissance Redraws Global Energy Map: IEA. AolEnergy. http://energy.aol.com/2012/11/12/american-energy- renaissance-redraws-global-energy-map-iea/http://energy.aol.com/2012/11/12/american-energy- renaissance-redraws-global-energy-map-iea/ den Elzen, Michel G.J., Andries F. Hof, Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020. Energy Policy, Volume 56, May 2013, Pages 633–643. Science Direct. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513000426Volume 56http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513000426 Doebbler., Curtis F.J. Dec. 17, 2012. What Did Doha Conference Do for Efforts to Combat Climate Change? Al-Jazeerah. http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20Editorials/2012/December/17%20o/What%20Did%20Doha%20Conference%20Do%20for%20Efforts%20to%20Combat%20 Climate%20Change%20By%20Curtis%20FJ%20Doebbler.htm http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20Editorials/2012/December/17%20o/What%20Did%20Doha%20Conference%20Do%20for%20Efforts%20to%20Combat%20 Climate%20Change%20By%20Curtis%20FJ%20Doebbler.htm Gruen, Gianna. Jan. 4, 2013. Act now – or youre (perhaps) wasting money. The Global Ideas Blog. Deutsche Welle. http://blogs.dw.de/globalideas/tag/keywan-riahi/http://blogs.dw.de/globalideas/tag/keywan-riahi/ Hanley, Charles J. Feb. 21, 2009. Lord Nicholas Stern Paints Dire Climate Change Scenario: Mass Migrations, Extended World War. Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/21/lord-nicholas-stern-paint_n_168865.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/21/lord-nicholas-stern-paint_n_168865.html IISD Reporting Services. Dec. 5, 2012. NAMA Partnership Launched at COP 18. International Institute for Sustainable Development. http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/nama- partnership-launched-at-cop-18/http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/nama- partnership-launched-at-cop-18/ InsideClimate News. Feb. 17, 2013. 11 years left to cut carbon output, report finds.HeraldNet.com. http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20130217/NEWS02/702179903/0/SPORTS10 http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20130217/NEWS02/702179903/0/SPORTS10 International Energy Agency. May 24, 2012. Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high. http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Jan. 6, 2013. Nature: Limiting Climate Change Will Become Much Harder And More Expensive If Action Is Not Taken Soon. Climate Progress, Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/06/1394421/nature-limiting-climate-change-will-become-much-harder-and- more-expensive-if-action-is-not-taken-soon/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/06/1394421/nature-limiting-climate-change-will-become-much-harder-and- more-expensive-if-action-is-not-taken-soon/ Jagger, Bianca. Dec. 11, 2012. COP 18 Failed to Turn Down the Heat. Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bianca-jagger/cop18-failed-to-turn-down- heat_b_2278758.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/bianca-jagger/cop18-failed-to-turn-down- heat_b_2278758.html Khor, Martin. Jan 12, 2013. Doha 2012: A Climate Conference of Low Ambitions. Economic and Political Weekly, VOL XLVIII NO 2. http://www.epw.in/system/files/CM_XLVIII_2_120113_Martin_Khor.pdf http://www.epw.in/system/files/CM_XLVIII_2_120113_Martin_Khor.pdf 24Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

25 Sources Krishnan, N. R. Jan. 2, 2013. Doha climate talks not a failure. The Hindu Business Line. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/doha-climate-talks-not-a- failure/article4265776.ecehttp://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/doha-climate-talks-not-a- failure/article4265776.ece Lang, Chris. Jan. 24, 2012. FERN on REDD at COP18, Doha: A proliferation of work programmes, processes and technical issues. Redd Monitor.org. http://www.redd- monitor.org/2013/01/24/fern-on-redd-at-cop18-doha-a-proliferation-of-work-programmes-processes-and-technical-issues/http://www.redd- monitor.org/2013/01/24/fern-on-redd-at-cop18-doha-a-proliferation-of-work-programmes-processes-and-technical-issues/ Levin, Kelly. Mar. 7, 2013. Developed Nations Must Cut Emissions In Half By 2020, Says New Study. Climate Progress via WRI Insights. Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/07/1685881/developed-nations-must-cut-emissions-in-half-by-2020-says-new-study/ http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/07/1685881/developed-nations-must-cut-emissions-in-half-by-2020-says-new-study/ McKibben, Bill. July 19, 2012. Global Warming's Terrifying New Math. Rolling Stone. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math- 20120719http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math- 20120719 Meinshausen, Malte, et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 C. Nature. Vol 458, 30 April 2009, doi:10.1038/nature08017. Macmillan Publishers Limited. https://www1.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/meinshausen09nat.pdfhttps://www1.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/meinshausen09nat.pdf Morgan, Jennifer. Dec. 14, 2012. Reflections on COP 18 in Doha: Negotiators Made Only Incremental Progress. WRI Insights. http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/12/reflections-cop-18-doha-negotiators-made-only-incremental-progress http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/12/reflections-cop-18-doha-negotiators-made-only-incremental-progress Moss, Catriona and Michelle Kovacevic. Dec. 4, 2012. The honeymoon for REDD+ is over: consensus not yet reached in Doha on MRV, finance. Forest News. http://blog.cifor.org/12941/the-honeymoon-for-redd-is-over-consensus-not-yet-reached-in-doha-on-mrv-finance/#.UV71XUpQoov http://blog.cifor.org/12941/the-honeymoon-for-redd-is-over-consensus-not-yet-reached-in-doha-on-mrv-finance/#.UV71XUpQoov Nelsen, Arthur. Nov. 16, 2012. US considers shifting climate negotiations away from UN track. EurActiv, part of the Guardian Environment Network. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/16/us-considers-climate-negotiations-un http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/16/us-considers-climate-negotiations-un Parnell, John. Dec. 13, 2012. Belarus threaten to leave Kyoto Protocol after Doha controversy. Responding to Climate Change. http://www.rtcc.org/kyoto-protocol-faces- more-walkouts-after-doha-controversy/http://www.rtcc.org/kyoto-protocol-faces- more-walkouts-after-doha-controversy/ Perspectives Climate Change. 2012. Perspectives your partner for pioneering new market based instruments. Perspectives Climate Change. http://www.perspectives.cc/index.php?id=687 http://www.perspectives.cc/index.php?id=687 PWC. Feb, 2013. Global Green Policy Insights (Feb 2013). http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/tax/newsletters/global-green-policy-insights/february-2013.jhtmlhttp://www.pwc.com/gx/en/tax/newsletters/global-green-policy-insights/february-2013.jhtml Romm, Joe. Feb. 5, 2013. IMF Chief: Unless We Take Action On Climate Change, Future Generations Will Be Roasted, Toasted, Fried And Grilled. Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/05/1546471/imf-chief-unless-we-take-action-on-climate-change-future-generations-will-be-roasted-toasted-fried-and- grilled/ http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/05/1546471/imf-chief-unless-we-take-action-on-climate-change-future-generations-will-be-roasted-toasted-fried-and- grilled/ Schueneman, Tom. Dec. 13, 2012. The Doha Climate Gateway: Stumbling Toward a Global Agreement at COP 18. The Energy Collective. http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/155996/doha-climate-gateway-stumbling-toward-global-agreement http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/155996/doha-climate-gateway-stumbling-toward-global-agreement Sileryte, Inga Dec, 31m 2912, Doha Conference. Moving Towards Stagnation? Sustainable Business Forum. http://sustainablebusinessforum.com/sbtoolkit/75406/doha- climate-change-conference-moving-towards-stagnationhttp://sustainablebusinessforum.com/sbtoolkit/75406/doha- climate-change-conference-moving-towards-stagnation 25Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

26 Sources Stewart, Heather, and Larry Elliot. Jan. 26, 2013. Nicholas Stern: 'I got it wrong on climate change – it's far, far worse. Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/27/nicholas-stern-climate-change-davos?INTCMP=SRCH http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/27/nicholas-stern-climate-change-davos?INTCMP=SRCH UNEP. Dec. 9, 2012. Doha Climate Conference Opens Gateway to Greater Ambition and Action on Climate Change. United Nations Environment Programme. http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2700&ArticleID=9353 http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2700&ArticleID=9353 UNFCCC. Feb. 1, 2013. Important update on the possible second session of the ADP (29 April - 3 May 2013). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/2860.phphttp://unfccc.int/2860.php Wilson, David Lee YT. Dec. 6, 2012. Plea by Naderev M. Sano of the Philippines in AWG-KP final session COP 18 Doha. YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY 26Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

27 Final Thought If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where? Naderev Sano, Philippine representative at COP18 Doha, Dec. 2012 27Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

28 Citation When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Doha COP18. A slideshow; 11th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. April 5, 2013. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. 28Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)


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