Presentation on theme: "Metal Prices, Currencies & Global Growth – Outlook 2013-15 Opportunities for the Territories Patricia M. Mohr Vice-President, Economics & Commodity Market."— Presentation transcript:
Metal Prices, Currencies & Global Growth – Outlook 2013-15 Opportunities for the Territories Patricia M. Mohr Vice-President, Economics & Commodity Market Specialist, Scotiabank Prospects North 2013 Northern Canadas Premier Business Conference Northwest Territories Chamber of Commerce, Northern Aboriginal Business Association & Le Conseil de Développement Économique des Territoires du Nord-Ouest Explorer Hotel Yellowknife, Northwest Territories September 10, 2013
2 Scotiabanks Commodity Price Index – Rebounds Modestly in 2013YTD, but remains 14.4% below The Near-Term Peak in April 2011 Scotiabank Commodity Price Index 1 Index: Jan 2007=100 All Items 1 October 2001 Bottom New record high in July 2008 Arab Oil Embargo 1.A trade-weighted U.S. dollar-based Index of principal Canadian commodity exports, including Oil & Gas (39.9% weight), Metals & Minerals (30.1% weight), Forest Products (14.66% weight) and Agricultural commodities (15.35% weight).– Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods. Data to July 2013. Decline From April 2011 Near-Term Peak -14.4%, July 2013 +4.1% m/m +6.3% yr/yr +6.3% yr/yr -46% in 2008: July to Dec. Scotiabanks Commodity Price Index rose to a near-term peak in April 2011 – just prior to financial market concern over excessive Eurozone sovereign debt and the negative impact on global economic growth. The subsequent decline in commodity prices from April 2011 to December 2012 at - 19.9% was less than half the slide during the 2008 recession. Despite considerable volatility, the All Items Index has edged up 1.2% YTD over the previous 7 months of 2012 and has climbed 6.3% yr/yr. While it is too early to say that commodity prices have bottomed, the correction since April 2011 – linked to austerity-led recession in the southern Eurozone, a sub-par U.S. economic recovery and new mine supply commissioned in a lacklustre global economy – could be largely over later this year. April 2011
3 After losing significant ground in late 2012, Scotiabanks Commodity Price Index started 2013 on a stronger note, rising 4.2% m/m in January. Riskier assets such as commodities and equities were buoyed by the 2012:Q4 pick-up in Chinas economy – with GDP accelerating to 7.9% from 7.4% in Q3, accompanied by raw material re- stocking -- a partial resolution of the U.S. fiscal cliff (extension of the Bush-era tax cuts – excepting the payroll tax reduction – and stepped-up taxes on high-income earners) and expectations of some pick-up in the U.S. economy by 2013:H2. However, the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index inched down again by 0.7% m/m in February alongside another bout of risk aversion linked to financial developments in Cyprus. Chinas State Council – concerned over escalating residential property prices also announced a five-point plan to contain prices, including a 20% capital gains tax on housing sales, unnerving financial markets. Residential construction has an important impact on Chinas demand for steel rebar and metals. The Scotiabank Commodity Price Index picked up again in March 2013 (+1.6% m/m), as a further surge in lumber and OSB prices (a panelboard used in U.S. residential construction) and slightly firmer natural gas prices more than offset weaker base metals, precious metals & iron ore prices. While North American lumber & OSB prices have corrected seasonally in recent months, we expect forest products construction materials to rally back and climb irregularly higher through 2015. Lumber & OSB are likely to be one of the most lucrative of the commodity market sectors. Commodity Prices Started 2013 on Positive Note, But Markets Stayed Skittish
4 In April, commodity prices lost ground again amid a sharp mid-month correction in gold prices – triggered by concern that Cyprus might sell 10t as part of its bailout package, raising the question of whether other distressed euro-zone countries such as Italy might sell gold (it does not appear to have occurred). The Scotiabank Commodity Price Index then rallied back in May (up 1.9% yr/yr), as the discount on Western Canadian Select heavy oil off WTI narrowed markedly. This partly reflects the increasing use of rail to reach more lucrative markets on the USGC and in Eastern Canada, taking pressure off Canadas fully-utilized export pipeline system. However, global commodity markets, as well as bonds & equities, came under renewed pressure on June 20-21, after comments from the Fed Chairman that, in view of an expected stronger U.S. economy going forward, the Fed may begin withdrawing some of its US$85 bn bond purchase program by late 2013, possibly ending quantitative easing by mid-2014. A backing-up in longer-dated U.S. interest rates triggered a stronger U.S. dollar, creating headwinds for many dollar-denominated commodity prices. A recent shortage of liquidity in Chinas banking system, and prospects for a less accommodative monetary policy in China to discourage shadow banking, also unnerved commodity markets. The overnight inter-bank rate spiked as high as 30% in mid-June, though rates fell back to normal levels with an ending to the liquidity crunch. Metal Prices Ease in 2013, As New Supplies Come On Stream
5 Base metal and gold prices increased again in August 2013 and world economic growth should strengthen moderately in 2014. However, prices for several key base metals such as copper may lose further ground in 2014, as new mine development gradually comes on stream, based on capital spending commitments made some time ago. On a more positive note, zinc should outperform mid-decade due to significant mine depletion. Nickel prices could also rebound in 2014, as Indonesias ban on unprocessed ore comes into effect, ending the recent stockpiling of nickel-containing ore in China (for Nickel Pig Iron) -- a development which has unnerved the nickel market. International potash shipments rebounded strongly in early 2013, though the exit of Uralkali from the BPC marketing arrangement points to softer prices in the second half of 2013. The global mining industry has entered a period of more cautious and disciplined capital spending to boost returns for shareholders. Financing for junior mining companies will remain tight in the coming year. Some new mine projects have been deferred – this development combined with ongoing demand growth in China and emerging Asia will set the stage for a return of the Bull Run in base metal prices in the second half of the decade. M&A activity in mining may heat up, as companies divest non-core holdings to focus on better cost and financial performance for shareholders. Bull-Run in Commodity Prices Expected To Return in Second Half of the Decade
6 Values over 50 indicate expansion Source: Markit, Scotiabank Economics. Data to August 2013. Global Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) lost considerable momentum in the summer of 2012, reflecting declining business confidence worldwide, with buyers deferring orders and liquidating inventories. The PMI for manufacturing in China moved back over the 50 mark in October – indicating an end to inventory reduction and moderately stronger growth in 2012:Q4. Chinas GDP growth picked up to 7.9% yr/yr in 2012:Q4 from 7.4% in Q3, yielding a soft-landing of 7.8% for 2012 as a whole. Chinas economy lost momentum again in 2013:Q1, with GDP decelerating to 7.7% yr/yr and 7.5% yr/yr in 2013:Q2. After another bout of concern over a further slowdown, Chinas economic indicators turned up in July (including the Official PMI, industrial production, export & import data and the HSBC Flash PMI for August) – lifting base metal prices in August. Chinas Purchasing Manager Index Drives Sentiment On Prospects For Commodity Markets Germany Euro zone U.S. China Chinas Official PMI in August: 51.0, after 50.3 in July
7 China -- Vital to Global Commodity Markets yr/yr % change China – Industrial Production* G7 Industrial Production Chinas Share of Global Consumption in 2013 Compared with the United States (in brackets) Copper43.1% (9.1%) Nickel*46.6% (7.8%) Zinc45.2% (8.4%) Aluminium47.0% (10.8%) *3 mth moving avg. Four Base Metals: China 45.8%, USA 9.9%. *Japan 9.7%; excluding inventory accumulation in China Source: Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. China Industrial Production: Jan-Feb 2009 3.8% yr/yr (a bottom) Mar 2009 8.3% July 2009 10.8% Dec 2009 18.5% 2010 14.4% China tightens monetary policy. 2011 13.7% Q1 2012 11.9% Q2 2012 9.5% Q3 2012 9.1% Q4 2012 10.0% Q1 2013 9.6% Q2 2013 9.1% July 9.7% G7 Industrial Production) U.S. +1.4% (July) Japan -2.3% (July) Germany +0.2% (July)
8 yr/yr % change 20082009201020122013f2014f WORLD*2.8-0.65.23.22.83.4 PERU10.11.18.86.35.7 CHILE188.8.131.52.64.4 CANADA0.5-184.108.40.206 2.3 UNITED STATES 0.0-2.63.02.81.62.6 CHINA220.127.116.11.87.3 INDIA5.27.79.05.15.05.8 JAPAN-1.1-5.54.52.01.7 EURO ZONE 0.5-4.11.8-0.5 0.6 GDP (% per annum) *Scotiabank estimates. Average 1988-1997: 3.4% p.a. prior to the economic take-off in China and India. Global Growth Should Strengthen in 2014, After Staying in the Slow Lane in 2013 In 2014, world growth should strengthen to 3.4% – moderately supportive of stronger commodity prices. U.S. GDP 2.6%, China 7.3%. U.S. Federal Govt Deficit: FY2012 US$1.087 tr; 2013F US$680 bn– helping to keep bond yields low. A seismic shift in global growth has occurred from the G7 to emerging markets (especially in Asia).
9 ONCE IN A DECADE CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP IN CHINA – As Important To The Global Growth Outlook As The U.S. Presidential Election November 8-15, 2012 – date of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, where a new leadership was established for only the fifth time since Mao Zedong – followed by the National Peoples Congress (parliament) in March 2013. A large number of officials have changed. New Fifth Generation Leadership: President (Head of State and Secretary-General of the Communist Party of China): Mr. Xi Jinping; previously Mr. Hu Jintao Prime Minister (Head of Government): Mr. Li Keqiang, previously Mr. Wen Jiabao.
10 China – Policy Continuity Expected Under New Leadership China is expected to continue pursuing the economic initiatives in the 12 th Five-Year Plan, unveiled in March 2011, though the new leadership will seek more market-related solutions (less central planning & government involvement -- including in the banking sector) -- be more populist and emphasize government over party interests. Mr. Jinping will pursue the national dream. The 12 th Five Year Plan (2011-15) seeks more balanced economic growth – with less emphasis on export expansion & investment and greater focus on domestic consumer spending, development of the service industries including the financial sector and New Economy growth; other key objectives -- productivity gains through economic restructuring – e.g. closure of smaller, less efficient plant & rationalization into larger, lower-cost entities (the steel & iron ore industries); reducing industrial energy intensity; a focus on developing the Western & Central parts of China, away from the heavily industrialized Eastern & Coastal areas, as initiated by President Hu Jintao; raising household incomes & living standards and building an environment-friendly society. In practice, progress on rebalancing Chinas economy towards domestically-led growth (e.g. via consumer spending) was not significant in 2012. Retail sales slowed to 14.3% in 2012 from 17.1% in 2011. What is evident is that China is no longer pursuing economic growth at any cost. A subtle shift is underway, with China comfortable with a slower, more market- determined advance (official target was 7.5% for 2012 and is at least 7% in 2013).
11 Dual Policy Agenda in 2013:H2 – De-Risk Financial Sector, While Maintaining Growth Of At Least 7% However, noticeably weaker economic indicators in China in August 2012 triggered a RMB1 trillion (US$160 bn) infrastructure spending program – approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) -- about ¼ of the massive RMB4 trillion announced in November 2008 in the face of the Great Recession. After reducing inventories of raw materials and consumer goods last Summer and early Fall, Chinas economy picked up moderately in late 2012, bolstered by stronger infrastructure spending as well as consumer incentives to buy power or fuel-efficient household appliances and small cars. In view of a recently lacklustre economy, China again announced a mini-stimulus package in July 2013, scrapping taxes on small business, reducing administrative costs for exporting companies and creating new financing vehicles for private-sector railway investment (bonds). Beijing will renew its push on affordable housing and urban renovation. In 2013:H2, Chinese policy makers have a dual agenda: meaningful deleveraging/de- risking in Chinas shadow banking sector, while still ensuring at least 7% GDP growth. Liquidity in the banking sector will remain relatively tight, but fiscal stimulus (increased investment in affordable housing, urban infrastructure and railways) will support the economy. Chinas raw material demand in the Fall construction season should be reasonably robust.
12 Medium-Term, The Emerging Markets Will Remain Supportive for Commodity Prices China United States Western Europe Japan India 70 793 588 580 20 Vehicle Penetration – 2011 (Vehicles per 1,000 people) Aluminium usage in automobiles in China has recently been an average of 127.5kg per vehicle compared with 145kg in the USA. As such, there is good potential to increase aluminium usage in China. Huge Potential for Oil & Metal-Intensive Motor Vehicle Sales in China Chinas population: 1.354 billion Chinas potential GDP growth is slowing -- in 2012: 8.5%, 2015-20: 7.0%p.a., 2025-30: 5% p.a. with less under-utilized labour & much slower capital formation (less build-out of the manufacturing sector).
13 Federal Funds – Effective Rates per cent Federal Funds Target Rate is 0-25 bps in Sept 2013. Very low funds rate will be warranted until U.S. unemployment rate falls below 6.5% (currently at 7.3%). Scotia Economics does not expect a tapering of Fed asset purchases of US$85 bn per month until late 2013, though a gradual end to purchases of longer-dated MBS and Treasury bonds is likely by mid-2014. The Fed Is Determined to Strengthen U.S. Employment Recovery – Accommodative Monetary Policy Until Unemployment Falls to Normal Real Federal Funds Rate (Adjusted for Inflation)* per cent * Inflation-adjusted with the U.S. Personal Consumption Deflator (PCE) and the core PCE. Shaded areas represent U.S. recession periods. Fed intends to keep inflation expectations 1-2 years ahead anchored at 2.5%.Average July 2013 = -1.04% Average = 2.01%
14 U.S. Industrial Activity Revives yr/yr % change U.S. Employment Growth U.S. Industrial Production U.S. Motor Vehicle Assemblies U.S. Payrolls million units, quarterly Latest Data: Advance in Payrolls Aug/13 Gain in Past Year yr/yr % change North American motor vehicle assemblies strengthened to 15.8 million units in 2012 (+17%) and are forecast to climb to 16.5 million in 2013 (+4.4%) and 17 million in 2014 (highest since the 17.6 million peak of 2000). Output in Mexico reached a record 3.1 million in 2012, lifted by Mexicos free trade agreements with Japan, the EU and the USA. In Canada, assemblies were 2.46 million in 2012, but have levelled off in 2013. U.S. employment recovery has been 5-times less than normal. +169,000 +2,206,000 Strong Auto Assemblies Buoy U.S. Industrial Activity In 2013, But Employment Gains Have Been Sub-Par U.S. Consumers Replace Aging Fleet, A Trend Likely to Continue
15 Currency Trends March 1973=100 Canadian Dollar U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Data to September 6, 2013: euro US$1.3162; Cdn$ = US$0.9619; US$ = 6.1195 Rmb. Expected stronger US dollar against the euro, Sterling and the Japanese yen in 2013-14. A stronger U.S. dollar (e.g. against the Indian rupee) creates headwinds for dollar-denominated commodity prices. US cents euro Chinese Yuan US cents euro: peak US$1.60 July 15, 2008 U.S. Dollar Trends Canadian Dollar Loses Ground Canadian dollar has slipped below par to U.S. currency alongside a somewhat stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker trade performance; Canadas triple-A credit rating remains supportive US cents
16 US$ per ounce Gold Prices London PM Fix Jan. 21, 1980 peak US$850 March 17, 2008 US$1,032.70, following collapse of Bear Stearns * London PM Fix on September 6, 2013: US$1,387. + New Record: Sept 9, 2011 spot US$1,921.15 2007 697 2008 872 2010 1,225 2012 1,672 2013F 1,425 2014F 1,325 (1,275-1,350) Price Outlook (US$) Gold prices had been on a Bull Run since 2001 – with high government debt and deficits triggering a loss of investor confidence in paper currencies (the two reserve currencies – the U.S. dollar and euro). Gold prices drifted lower through most of 2012, with traders awaiting QE3. However, announcement of a third round of quantitative easing by the Fed (QE3), combined with the ECBs proposed bond purchase program, propelled gold back to a high of US$1,791.75 on October 4, 2012 in London. Gold languished again in early 2013 due to 1) a shift of investor interest from gold to equities in anticipation of a moderate pick-up in the U.S. economy in 2013:H2; 2) the unlikelihood that the Fed would need to apply even more quantitative easing to kick-start the U.S. economy; 3) a tax by India on gold imports (raised to a record 10% in August); and 4) the failure of Basel III to include gold in the LCR for banks. The sharp mid-April gold price correction was triggered by a possible Cyprus sale as part of its bailout package, raising the possibility that other distressed Eurozone countries might follow suit (neither development occurred). Gold Prices Likely Bottomed Just Below US$1,200 Gold again corrected sharply in late June, when the Fed announced that it might begin tapering its bond purchase program (US$85 bn per month) and likely end the program in mid-2014, falling as low as US$1,180. While gold has rallied back with strong physical demand in China & Hong Kong and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold could correct once more when the Fed finally reduces liquidity. Potential Cyprus sale of 10t of gold, triggers sharp selloff in mid-April.
17 US$ per ounce Gold reserves held by Eurozone countries (tonnes): Italy 2,452;Portugal 382; Spain 282; Greece 111;Ireland 6; Europe 11,260; US gold reserves: 8,133 (No.1 largest); China 1,054 (6 th ). 2008 14.99 2009 14.69 2010 20.19 2011 35.11 2012 31.15 2013F 24 2014F 22-24 Price Outlook (US$) Silver Prices ratio London Silver Fix (LHS) Gold-to-Silver Price Ratio (RHS) ScotiaMocatta: permanent Chair of London Silver Fix. Until recently, silver prices have been under pressure from declining gold prices, weak industrial demand in 2011-12 and an unwinding in investor positions. London Silver Fix: Sept 6, 2013 US$23.05.
18 PALLADIUM – A Pick For Investors US$ per ounce, London PM Fix Palladium prices -- a play on the growth of auto catalytic converters in China and depletion of Russian government stockpile; strong U.S. auto sales are also supportive. Palladium Prices: 2012 643 2013F 715 2014F 750 2015F 850 Data to September 6, 2013: US$699 per ounce. The global auto industry began 2013 on a robust note. Car production in China in 2013:Jan-July +10.8% yr/yr; including SUVs & light passenger trucks +14.5% in 2013 YTD.
19 Copper Prices Ease Alongside Brownfield Mine Expansion US$ per pound New Record High: US$4.60 on February 14, 2011 LME cash settlement prices. + Latest data: Sept. 6, 2013: US$3.25, still yielding a lucrative 34% profit margin over average world breakeven costs including depreciation, interest & indirect costs. ++ Dec. 24, 2008: US$1.26. COPPER DEMAND IN CHINA REMAINS STRONG * Low During Credit Squeeze (Dec. 24, 2008) Price Outlook 2009 US$2.34 2010 US$3.42 2011 US$4.00 2012 US$3.61 2013F US$3.30 2014F US$3.05-3.10 ++ Extraordinary recovery in copper prices in early 2009 reflected buying by Chinas State Reserve Bureau, massive credit expansion and a rapid rebound in Chinas industrial activity. The strength of copper prices in the past five years has reflected only limited global mine development -- up 1.7% per annum from 2008-2012 -- in the face of strong demand growth from China and the rest of the emerging world. Chinas refined copper consumption: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F +25% +10.8% +8.5% +5.0% +8.0% +6.2% Despite slower GDP growth, strong underlying demand and tight scrap supplies boosted refined copper imports into China 14.7% yr/yr in July (concentrate imports were record in July, +37% YTD). Expansion of the electricity grid and firm construction activity are lifting demand for copper cable, building wire and household goods. LME Copper Prices Global supply & demand conditions for copper were in deficit in 2011, but have shifted into a modest surplus in 2012-13 +
20 LME Copper Prices Likely To Ease In 2014 LME copper prices are currently US$3.25 per pound – yielding a 34% profit margin over average world break-even costs including depreciation, interest, indirect & cash costs. World demand for refined copper edged down slightly in 2012 (-0.3%), as higher consumption in China (up 5%), the Middle East (up 7.4%) and the United States (up 1%) was more than offset by a 6.8% plunge in Europe, a 1.8% drop in Japan and surprisingly weak demand in South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan. At the same time, while mine expansion failed to meet expectations, given technical problems and lower ore grades at a number of major mines – especially in Chile (Collahuasi, Los Bronces), Zambia and Indonesia (Grasberg) – overall mine output still managed to increase by 3.7%. The net result, refined copper slipped into a modest surplus in 2012. Global demand will pick up by about 4.4% in 2013 and 5% in 2014. However, world mine production is finally starting to ramp up (+4.5% in 2013 and +6.5% in 2014), pushing down copper prices. Brownfield expansion at existing mines in Chile, Peru, Zambia and the DR Congo will rev up, head grades have improved this year at Escondida, Antofagasta and Los Bronces and some major greenfield projects will come on stream (Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Antapaccay, Toromocho & Las Bambas in Peru (in 2015), Mount Milligan in Canada, Caserones & Mina Ministro Hales in Chile). There is risk of copper prices easing slightly below the US$3 mark by mid-decade. Later in the decade, copper prices should rebound again to US$3.50, given high capital costs for new mine development (high incentive costs) and solid demand.
21 China Dominates World Copper Consumption Source: Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. % of total
22 Zinc – The Next Big Base Metal Play US$ per pound LME official cash settlement price Sept 6, 2013: US$0.85; Zinc prices have held up better than aluminium, nickel & copper in 2013, with strong global auto sales, a U.S. housing recovery and declining world exchange stocks (esp. Shanghai Futures Exch). Zinc demand will be boosted mid- decade by a recovery in G7 construction activity Credit Crisis Late 2008 Global supply & demand conditions for refined zinc shifted into a surprising deficit in 2012, as Chinese producers shut down smelters in view of low treatment charges on domestic and imported concentrates, poor profitability and tight credit from Chinese banks. Chinas smelters reduced output by an unprecedented 5.7% to 4.8 mt in 2012, shifting the global zinc concentrate market into a moderate surplus. While Chinas smelter output has rebounded moderately in 2013, smelter capacity utilization will remain low at 70% compared with a ROW average of 91%. The metal market balance is expected to remain in deficit over the next five years, with stocks dwindling to 58 days of consumption by 2017, down from 101 days in 2012, lifting refined metal prices. While smelter TC charges will rise in 2013-15, higher metal prices will be an offset for concentrate producers. Nevertheless, miners are now scaling back projects, with limited finance for juniors. While mine output could advance by 4.4% p.a. 2012-17, the gain will be limited by unusually high depletion (e.g. Perseverance, Lisheen, Century). The concentrate surplus should recede in 2015, moving to balance by2016. Zinc Price Outlook 2009 US$0.75 2010 US$0.98 2012 US$0.88 2013F US$0.88 2014F US$1.05 Zinc prices could climb as high as US$1.50 in 2016-17 LME Zinc Prices
23 Nunavut/Labrador Trough New World-Class Iron Ore Region
24 Spot Iron Ore Prices Delivered To China, Important for Nunavut & Labrador Trough August 2013: US$136.70 per tonne. US dollars per tonne Iron Ore Concentrates, 62% Fe, basis Qingdao & Tianjin, China* Representative of spot prices from Labrador/Northern Quebec to China. Steel Mill Restocking In China Boosts Prices Near-Term Spot iron ore prices, 62% Fe, delivered to northern China have rebounded from a low of US$115 per tonne to US$136.70 in August and are US$138.70 in early September. Chinas iron ore imports surged to a record high of 73.14 mt in July (+26.4% yr/yr), with steel mills restocking and taking advantage of softer prices in May & June, linked to weak financial-market sentiment on the Chinese economy. The mini-stimulus package, outlined by Chinas State Council in late July, should boost private-sector railway investment and steel demand over the balance of 2013. Chinas Fall construction season should also be fairly strong. Chinas steel production has increased by 7.5% YTD through July and now accounts for 49% of the world total. ROW steel output has edged down by 2.3% in 2013 YTD.
25 Iron Ore Benchmark Prices More Competitive Market Conditions Ahead dmtu = dry metric tonne unit. Producers will be challenged to compete with Western Australian iron ore with cash costs of only US$40-60 per tonne and ocean shipping costs of US$7.60 to Beilun, China. Higher-cost Chinese mines will close, making room for capacity expansion in Australia & Brazil and to some extent in West Africa & Canada. Pilbara Blend/Newman Fines, Australia to Japan, China & North Asia US cents per dmtu FOB loading port Fiscal Years forecast The quarterly contract price for Pilbara Blend/Mt. Newman fines (FOB loading port in Western Australia) – the key international benchmark – is about 192.90 US cents per dmtu in FY2013:Q2. Prices remain quite profitable for Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton in the Pilbara region, yielding a 60% margin over cash costs at the port. (Sales arrangements are shifting to a spot basis). However, the pace of Chinas steel production growth will likely slow in 2014- 16, cutting the growth rate in world iron ore demand to 3.7% per annum. Equally important, large new and very low-cost supplies will be developed in Western Australia, with world supplies increasing by 8.4% per annum. The net result, market conditions will shift into balance by 2014-15, with a risk of surplus in 2016. In view of expected lower prices in the next several years and given the sharp correction in Chinas iron ore imports in mid-2012, Canadian companies have been examining project development more critically, with some mines deferred and operations reconfigured to cut costs. JFY 2009 97 2010 210 2011 265 2012 197 2013F 205 2014F 180 2016F 145 Great Recession Annual Averages
26 Geopolitical Supply Risks Keep International Oil Prices High in 2013 US$ per barrel Arab Oil Embargo Iranian Revolution Gulf War Iraq War Record High: July 11, 2008: US$147.90 2008 US$99.62 US$97.95 2009 US$62 US$62 2012 US$94 US$112 2013F US$99 US$108 2014F US$102 US$108 * Over the medium-term, building additional export pipeline capacity to the B.C. and Atlantic Coasts for the onward shipment of Western Canadas blended bitumen and light crude oil to the growth markets of China, northern Asia and India remains vital. Signs point to further delays in U.S. Presidential approval of the Keystone XL pipeline. Scotiabank Commodity Price Index + Price Outlook WTI Oil Brent Oil Brent oil prices jumped to a 4-month high in July 2013 of US$107 and rose further in early Sept to US$116. After unusually heavy spring maintenance, global refinery demand surged to a record in June and will stay elevated over the balance of 2013. New refinery capacity in non-OECD countries is being commissioned to keep pace with relatively strong emerging market demand. While U.S. & Canadian production continues to climb (especially in the North Dakota Bakken), OPEC supply outages (civil unrest in Libya & pipeline attacks in Iraq) have grabbed the headlines. WTI oil prices at US$110 in Sept 2013 remain close to Brent, after completely closing the gap on July 19, with debottlenecking of the Cushing, Oklahoma oil hub and pipeline expansion from the Permian & Eagle Ford Basins in northern Texas to Houston. The return of WTI oil prices closer to international levels, and temporarily lower discounts on WCS heavy and light crude oil in Edmonton, have boosted earnings for Western Canadas oil patch in 2013:Q3. Despite slow growth in petroleum demand (+1.1%), international oil prices should remain high in 2014 – underpinned by geopolitical supply risks in the Middle East & West Africa. + September 6, 2013: US$109.65
27 High LNG Prices in Japan & Asia Favour Canadian & U.S. LNG Exports US$ per mmbtu * Avg. LNG import price into Japan; Japan turned to imported LNG & oil when nuclear reactors were shut in 2011-12. *LNG prices delivered to Japan: peak at US$18.07 in July 2012, late June 2013: US$15.11. Source: LNG Japan Corporation. Steam coal lost competitiveness in 2012, but could rally back if natural gas is consistently at or above US$4.00. LNG exports should be the trigger for a large structural increase in natural gas demand & stronger prices later in the decade. New transportation initiatives are being developed: LNG use in trucking and possibly in railway locomotives. NYMEX Natural Gas Prices Nymex Natural Gas Prices (US$ per mmbtu) 2008 8.90 2009 4.15 2011 4.03 2012 2.83 2013F 3.75 2014F 4.00 Natural gas is the fuel of choice for North American manufacturers, recently rejuvenating the U.S. petrochemical and fertilizer industries. Development of 20 new U.S. natural gas shale basins – made economic by new multi-stage fracture drilling technology – has lowered the industry cost curve. NYMEX prices fell to a decade low of US$1.91 per mmbtu on April 19, 2012. This price level was unsustainably low; the vast bulk of North American natural gas cannot be produced profitably at prices below US$2. Most dry natural gas shale producers require at least US$3 to generate a reasonable rate of return. Prices rallied to around the US$4 mark last spring alongside unseasonably cold U.S. weather, pushing gas-in-storage down below the 5-year average (now US$3.52). Gas- targeted drilling rigs have dropped, with energy companies shifting focus to oil, though the tie- in of already drilled gas wells has limited the impact. LNG Prices in Japan*
28 Equity Sales & Research Scotiabank is a leading provider of Equity Research on Base Metal, Precious Metal, Oil & Gas, Forest Products and Fertilizer companies. Corporate Banking – Global Mining In 2012, Scotiabank was ranked as the No.1 lead arranger (by deal count) in the Canadian and North American mining sectors; the most international of the Canadian banks, with offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Hong Kong, operations across Asia Pacific including India, Malaysia and Thailand and throughout Latin America (including Mexico, Chile, Peru, Brazil and Colombia), London and New York. Investment Banking and M&A Advisory Services #1 Canadian Equity Issuer and a leading mining underwriter January 2011 to present. Landmark Transactions: -- Exclusive Financial Advisor to Red Back Minings C$8.0 billion merger with Kinross Gold – Fourth largest M&A transaction ever completed in the gold sector. -- Co-Bookrunner on Barricks US$4.0 billion equity offering – the largest equity offering in Canadian history and the largest equity financing ever made in the international gold sector. -- Sole Financial Advisor to China Investment Corporation in their landmark private placement in Teck Resources (US$1.5 billion) -- largest investment in a mining company by a Chinese investor in Canadian history. Scotia Waterous -- a world leader in upstream Oil & Gas M&A and Divestiture mandates, with offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Calgary, Houston, Denver and London; Co-Bookrunner of Gibson Energy Initial Public Offering (C$568 million ) – the largest Canadian IPO in 2011. Advised BHP Billiton on acquisition of Petrohawk Energy and Chesapeakes Fayetteville assets. Scotiabanks Global Presence In Resource Industries
29 Corporate Banking – Canadian Mining Credit Facilities US$400,000,000 Lead Arranger, Sole Bookrunner & Admin Agent Closing October 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$2,000,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Syndication Agent March 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$200,000,000 Lead Arranger, Sole Bookrunner & Admin Agent June 2013 Credit Facilities US$2,500,000,000 Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent June 2013 Term Loan Facility US$1,000,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent May 2013 Credit Facilities US$2,500,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent February 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$750,000,000 Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent February 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$150,000,000 Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent February 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$100,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent February 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$150,000,000 Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent January 2013 Revolving Credit Facility US$350,000,000 Sole Lead Arranger, Sole Bookrunner & Admin Agent December 2012 Revolving Credit Facility US$450,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent September 2012 Revolving Credit Facility US$1,200,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Admin Agent August 2012 Revolving Credit Facility C$525,000,000 Co-Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner & Syndication Agent June 2012 Revolving Credit Facility C$75,000,000 Sole Lead Arranger, Sole Bookrunner & Admin Agent July 2012
30 ScotiaMocatta – Precious & Base Metals Trading ScotiaMocatta provides innovative hedging & base metal trading solutions with offices in London, New York, Toronto & Mumbai. ScotiaMocatta is a global leader in precious metals trading and finance dating back to 1671; ranks #1 in physical trading worldwide. Member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, permanent Chair of the London Silver Fixing and an original member of the London Gold Fixing. Offices in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Toronto, New York, Bangalore, Coimbatore, Dubai, Mexico City, Mumbai and New Delhi. Fully integrated and innovative solutions across a complete range of metal services:. Spot, forward and options trading. Hedging programs. Metal leases, consignments and loans. Custodial services. Global physical delivery. Approved COMEX depository. Forward rate agreements. Location swaps. Metals certificate programs. Structured notes
31 Scotiabank is Canadas most international bank Global Operations Scotiabank has Canadian bankings largest network in mainland China. Scotiabank has operations in 11 Asian countries, the largest network of any Canadian bank.
32 Disclaimer TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. This report has been prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.