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St. Vincent de Paul- Sales and Opportunity Analysis Ali Ruzo Lauren Schick Sam Kenney Spencer Kilpatrick.

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Presentation on theme: "St. Vincent de Paul- Sales and Opportunity Analysis Ali Ruzo Lauren Schick Sam Kenney Spencer Kilpatrick."— Presentation transcript:

1 St. Vincent de Paul- Sales and Opportunity Analysis Ali Ruzo Lauren Schick Sam Kenney Spencer Kilpatrick

2 St. Vincent de Paul World Wide Catholic Non-profit organization – Started in the United States in 1845 – about 950,000 involved in the society within 132 countries worldwide – Provides direct assistance to anyone suffering or in need for clothing, food, medical aid, employment and shelter All proceeds from the SVdP Thrift Store go to supporting programs such as: – Adult education GED, ESL, Parenting workshops, Financial empowerment workshops, Citizenship preparation classes – Youth Enrichment Programs Afterschool tutoring, lunch programs, nutrition programs – Relief Programs BACK-2-SCHOOL, Christmas shop, Holiday meals

3 Our Project Opportunity of Donations Hourly Sales Analysis Forecasting Regression Model

4 Opportunity of Donations Survey – 5 questions to gauge willingness to donate and knowledge of SVdP – Surveyed 4 Catholic schools – Approximately 100 adults All outside of 5 mile radius of store to get other input

5 Have you ever heard about St. Vincent de Paul Thrift store?

6 Have you ever donated to St. Vincent de Paul Thrift store?

7 How Willing are you to donate a high end clothing item?

8 Donation Opportunities Conclusions Target higher income areas Continue to explore donation options outside of 5 mile radius – Place more donation pick up trucks – SMU has agreed to further conversation for next year

9 Hourly Sales Analysis Analyzed the mean sales data hourly Descriptive statistics by: – Hours by day – Days by hour Looked for most and least profitable times using a color progression scale

10 Total Mean Sales *Most profitable mid-day Tuesday and Saturday *Least profitable Mondays

11 Mean Sales- Hourly *Most profitable usually Saturday *Least profitable usually Mondays

12 Mean Sales- Daily *Most profitable usually during the middle of the day

13 Hourly Sales Analysis Conclusions Monday is regularly the least profitable – Consider shorter hours of operation – Consider heavier advertisement and promotions Saturday and Tuesday are usually the most profitable – Consider scheduling staff appropriately – Continue using coupons and promotions

14 Regression Model Evaluated trend lines of the data

15 Daily Sales- Actual

16 Monthly Trends

17 Monthly Sales by Year

18 Day of the Week Trends

19 Day of the Week Trends Cont.

20 Create Monthly Factors *Used factors to weight the Regression Model appropriately for each month y = x R² =

21 Create Daily Factors y = x R² = *multiplied Y value by both monthly factor and daily factor

22 Regression-Monthly

23 Regression-Monthly by Year

24 Regression-Daily by Year Black Friday Factor = 2.18 *Christmas and Thanksgiving are set to zero

25 Regression Model Daily R 2 = 0.52 *the model now explains 52% of the daily sales (rather than only 15% from the original trend line)

26 Regression Model Monthly R 2 = 0.78 *the monthly forecasting model now explains 78% of the sales

27 Usable Forecasting Model StatementOutputInput IF Checks whether the condition is met, and returns one value if TRUE and another if FALSE IF(logical_test, [value_if_true], [value_if_false]) WEEKDAY Returns a number from 1 to 7 identifying the day of the week of the date WEEKDAY(serial_number, [return_type]) MONTH Returns the month, a number from 1 (January) to 12 (December) MONTH(serial_number) DATEDIF returns the difference between two date values, based on the interval specified. DateDif( start_date, end_date, interval ) DAY Returns the number that represents the date in Microsoft Excel date-time code DATE(serial_number)

28 Embedded If-Statements An example line from the embedded If-Statement: =IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=1,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$10*$D$4, IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=2,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20, L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$4*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=3,MONTH( L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$5*$D$4,IF(A ND(WEEKDAY(L6)=4,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L 6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$6*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=5,MONTH(L 6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$7*$D$4,IF(A ND(WEEKDAY(L6)=6,MONTH(L6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L 6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$8*$D$4,IF(AND(WEEKDAY(L6)=7,MONTH(L 6)=1),($J$2*DATEDIF($B$20,L6,"d")+$K$2)*$B$9*$D$4,…….

29 Forecasting for 2011

30 Questions?

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