Presentation on theme: "Health Impacts of Global Climate Change"— Presentation transcript:
1Health Impacts of Global Climate Change International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH)Health Impacts of Global Climate ChangeJamal Hisham Hashim, PhDProfessor of Environmental Health & Research FellowPresented at the 16th National Public Health Colloquium, November 2009, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,
2Outline of Talk What is climate change? Greenhouse effect and global warming.Environmental impacts of climate change.Health impacts of climate change.Research needs.
3Research Themes of UNU-IIGH Accessibility, Efficiency and Quality of Care in Health SystemNewly Emerging and Re-emerging diseases and epidemicsControl of Non-communicable DiseasesIT in HealthClimate Change and HealthImpact of Globalization onHealth Care
4Weather and ClimateWeather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around us, characterized by the temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements.Climate refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain area.Statistically significant variations of the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically persisting for decades or longer, are referred to as “climate change.”
5What is Climate Change ?According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.According to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, it refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
7IPCC Climate Change Study The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO and UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.IPCC has come out with the Climate Change 2007 : The IPCC 4th Assessment Report.It is the work of over 2500 scientific expert reviewers, over 800 contributing authors and over 450 lead authors from over 130 countries.It involves 6 years of work in 4 volumes of report.
8Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC and O3) trap long-wave radiation from earth from escaping through the atmosphere into space.This produces the greenhouse effect which warms the earth atmosphere.This greenhouse effect leads to the phenomenon called global warming.
10Global WarmingGlobal average surface temperature has increased since 1861.Over the 20th century, it has increased by about 0.74 ± 0.18 oC.Since late 1950’s, overall global temperature increase in the troposphere and in surface temperature have been 0.13 oC per decade.1990’s was the warmest decade with 1998 the warmest year since 1861.Greatest warming effects occur over the tropical and sub-tropical regions.
11MeanSource : Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office.
13Radiative ForcingIncreasing concentrations of greenhouse gases cause positive radiative forcing which tend to warm surface temperature.Increasing concentrations of aerosols cause negative radiative forcing which tend to cool surface temperature.
16Change in Precipitation Pattern Precipitation has increased by 0.2 to 0.3 % per decade over the tropical (10 oN to 10 oS) land areas.Precipitation has decreased over some areas of central and west Africa.Warm episodes of the ENSO phenomenon which is associated with droughts and warm temperatures in the tropics, have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years.
17The disappearing Lake Chad : Decreased rainfall in the area since the 1960’s has increased water demand for agriculture.
18Rising Sea Level and Ocean Heat Content Tidal gauge data show that global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 meters during the 20th century.Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950.
20How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ? Thermal stress :* Major increases in the frequency of heatwaves with climate change may occur.* In 1995, the week-long heat wave inChicago caused more than 700 heat-related deaths (Whitman et.al, 1997).
21Source : World Health Organization. (2003) Source : World Health Organization. (2003). Climate change and human health – Risks and responses.
22How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ? Decreased precipitation :* Leads to drought which triggers forestfires causing respiratory problems (Brauer &Jamal, 1998).* Drought also reduces surface water flow, thusdegrading water quality leading to waterbornedisease.* Droughts may reduce food production leading todiseases of malnutritions.
24How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ? Increased precipitation :* Populations in developing countries are vulnerable to floodsbecause of their habitation of high-risk areas like floodplains and coastal zones.* Deaths from drowning and physical injuries from accidentsamong victims.* Mixing of flood water with sewage and wastes leads towaterborne diseases, especially among the malnourished.* Increase opportunity for pest breeding which leads tovectorborne and zoonotic diseases (eg. Leptospirosis).
26Tropical storm Ketsana hit Manila in September 2009
27How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ? Increased sea level :* Leads to flooding. Mixing of flood waterwith sewage and wastes leads towaterborne diseases.* Increase opportunity for pest breedingwhich leads to vectorborne and zoonoticdiseases.* Salt water intrusion affecting groundwater andbreeding of certain disease vector(A. sundaicus).
28How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ? Vectorborne diseases :* Modeling work suggest a 5% to 7% potentialincrease in malaria distribution through increasedaltitudinal reach and a 16% to 28% exposure riskdue to prolonged transmission season in Africa inthis century (Tanser et.al, 2003).* Increase temperature may increase Dengue virusreplication in Aedes aegypti leading to potentialepidemics (Patz et. Al, 1998).
30Research NeedsQuantifying change in disease burden associated with climate change, especially in developing countries.Identifying population groups susceptible to health effects of climate change (the elderly, poor and homeless).Predicting the impacts of intervention policies (eg. improved fuel efficiency, promotion of renewable energy).Disaster management during extreme weather events (eg. cyclones, floods and forest fires).Countries’ preparedness in dealing with the effects of climate change.
31and Ecosystem Integrity Connecting Environmental Changes, Impacts and Responses in the Mekong Delta to Human Wellbeingand Ecosystem IntegrityA planned collaborative research with UNU-INWEH, UNU-EHS, UNU-ESD, UNU-IEGL, UNU-IIST and UNU & GIST.To study the health impacts of deteriorating water quality in the Mekong Delta, as a consequent of environmental and climate change.Preliminary work has begun and now seeking bigger fund.
32Health impacts of environmental and climate change in the Mekong Delta Government policiesClimate changeEconomic developmentUrbanizationSea level riseExtreme weatherSalt water intrusionSurface temperature changeChange in rainfall patternIndustrial pollutionPopulation growthSoil salinizationMangrove destructionFloodDroughtSewage pollutionWater pollutionAgriculture & aquacultureFertilizer useWater-related diseasesVector habitat changeWaterborne diseasesFood securityEg. schistosomiasis & leptospirosisPesticide useEutrophicationEg. cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, etc.Vectorborne diseasesChemical -related illnessesMalnutritionEg. dengue & malariaTrigger of changeRisk factorsEg. pesticide & heavy metal poisoningEnvironmental driversHealth outcomes
33Global Vulnerability to Disease (VyGIL) - Developing an Interactive Global Vulnerability Tool A collaborative research project between 3 UNU institutes (UNU-IIGH, UNU-INWEH and UNU-EHS) and 13 other institutions.To develop an interactive GIS tool to map vulnerability indices of water-related diseases.A proof-of-concept study on Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia will be initiated early next year.